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Social Indicators of Vulnerability for Coastal Communities
in the Mexican Pacific: Implications for Climate Change
Hem Nalini Morzaria-Luna, G. Cruz-Piñón, T.P. Guerrero Izquierdo, M. Moreno Báez, M.O. Aburto-Oropeza,
L.E. Calderón Aguilera, H. Reyes-Bonilla, P. Turk-Boyer, J. Torre, & M.G. Rivera
We are using readily available
secondary data to create measures of
social vulnerability
Adaptive capacity varied spatially in the
Mexican Pacific
Communities with higher employment, education, stable
population, and healthcare show higher adaptive capacity
which may help them adapt to potential changes.
These are preliminary results, we will determine:
Vulnerability = Exposure1 + Sensitivity2 – Adaptive capacity3
1.
2.
3.
The degree to which a system is stressed.
The susceptibility to harm
The ability of people to anticipate, respond, and recover from the
consequences of change
Our final results will provide a regional
analysis of coastal community
vulnerability and resilience
Previously, we assessed vulnerability to disruption in
fishing activities in 12 communitiesc in the Northern Gulf of
Californiac:
We expect vulnerability to climate
change in the Mexican Pacific will
similarly be determined by:
•
We assessed adaptive capacity in 561 communities as a
function of variables describing demography, labor force,
housing characteristics, education, health services and
poverty, using principal component analysisa-d. This
database was developed using government statistics.
•
•
•
Prevalent artisanal
fisheries with low adaptive
capacity
Future warming and
acidification effects
Environmental variability
High dependence on
calcifying species
Further research is needed to examine
exposure to climate change
Next steps:
• Expand database
• Assess fisheries dependence
and exposure
• Case studies for communities
with available primary
information
• Regional downscaling of
projected climate change
effects to determine exposure
RCP IPCC Scenario 8.5
2100 projected anomaly (°C).
Delta downscaling of model
projections using a multimodel
ensemble
References
a. Jacob et al. 2013: doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2012.04.014
b. Jepson & Colburn. 2013. NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS-F/SPO129
c. Cinner et al. 2012: doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.09.018
d. Himes-Cornell & Kasperski 2015. doi:10.1016/j.fishres.2014.09.010
e. Morzaria-Luna et al. 2014: doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2013.10.013
Acknowledgements
More information: [email protected]
Morzaria-Luna was
a guest researcher
at NWFSC