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Double Exposure:
Climate Change Impacts in the Context
of Economic Globalization
Double Exposure: Regions, sectors, ecosystems,
and social groups will be confronted by both the
impacts of climate change and consequences of
globalization. New patterns of winners and losers
will emerge.
What does exposure to multiple stressors mean for
vulnerability? Vulnerability is dynamic. In the
case of agriculture, structural economic changes
must be addressed at the same time as
environmental changes.
Case Studies
Southern Africa
 India
 Cuba
Double Exposure:
Assessing Vulnerability to Climate Change and
Economic Globalization in India
Assessing vulnerability
CICERO, Rutgers, TERI, IISD study supported by CIDA
and Norwegian Foreign Ministry
Methodology: Macro-level vulnerability profile, local
case studies, policy analysis
Goal: Identify highly vulnerable districts to identify the
factors that enhance or constrain coping and adaptive
Elements of vulnerability profiles
Biophysical vulnerability
• Soil degradation and
• Flood prone districts
• Groundwater extraction
Socioeconomic vulnerability
• Agricultural workers and
• Irrigation availability
• Literacy
• Infrastructure
• Gender discrimination
Climate sensitivity
index (precipitation
variability and dryness)
Trade sensitivity
index (port distance
and export- & importcrops)
Case Studies
How are farmers influenced by economic
 How do they cope with climate variability?
 How may global changes influence adaptive
Anantapur District, Andhra Pradesh
Small and marginal farmers, landless laborers
Dry, rainfed agriculture
Most land devoted to groundnut production
Profitability reduced in 1990s due to growing cost
of cultivation, stagnation or decrease in output
prices, consecutive drought, and pest problems
Desperate situation has led to suicides among
Groundnut production
Sufficiency in edible oils gained by early 90s (97% in
Opening of the Indian edible oil market to imports
Palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia has been a main
Domestic edible oil prices move with international prices;
good crop plus oversupply of imports means low prices.
Duty hikes in India (to protect farmers) often ineffective
because of excess production and drops in international
Implications for farmers
Profitability is being squeezed
 Difficult to repay creditors
 ”Oilseed industry is dying”
 Lack of an alternative rainfed crop that is
viable for small and marginal farmers
 Options: Leave agriculture
Double Exposure
Climate variability and change is an added
stress to farmers; in some case, it is what
pushes them over the edge.
 Vulnerability to global environmental
change must be assessed within the context
of multiple stressors.