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WISSENSCHAFTLICHER BEIRAT DER BUNDESREGIERUNG
GLOBALE UMWELTVERÄNDERUNGEN
3. März 2008, KMK-BMZ-Fachtagung „Globale
Entwicklung“, Bonn
Globale Entwicklung am Beispiel
Klimawandel
Dirk Messner
German Development Institute
German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU)
www.die-gdi.de
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Human security
Destabilization of
countries and
regions
New lines of
conflicts and
tensions
globally
Geopolitics of
climate change
Radical
Transformation of
the Earth System
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Main message
Climate change could unite the international community,
recognizing climate change as a threat to humankind...
If it fails to do so, climate change will draw ever-deeper lines of
division in international relations, triggering distributional
conflicts over water, land, the management of migration,
compensation payments between the countries mainly
responible for climate change and those countries most affected
by it`s destructive impacts ....
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Szenarien Klimawandel ... 5° plus Welt:
Radikaler Wandel des Erdsystems!
a) Eiszeit – heute, b) Menschheitsexperiment, c) Erdsystem
A2
EU - Limit
2º
B1
?!
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Die CO2-Konzentration steigt
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Long term impacts of GHG emissions
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Reduction of GHG – emissions needed until 2050
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Mitigation as an investment in international stability ... Avoiding
unmanageable risks in the global earth system!
Key actors in the furture: OECD, China/ India
Other Latin America
2.9%
Middle East
8.9%
Africa
4.4%
International navigation
0.7%
OECD North America
12.8%
Brazil
1.6%
OECD Pacific
1.8%
Other developing Asia
9.0%
India
10.0%
Projected
Emissions
growth
2004-2030
14 bn t CO2
= 55%
China
39.4%
OECD Europe
4.0%
Russia
2.6%
Other transition
economies
1.8%
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Dangerous climate change: impacts on
societies
Three Perspectives
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First Perspective: „Tipping Points“ in the Earth
System – Will societies be able to adopt?
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Collapse of the Amazonian Forest: Radical
transformations of eco-systems in very little time
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WISSENSCHAFTLICHER BEIRAT DER BUNDESREGIERUNG
GLOBALE UMWELTVERÄNDERUNGEN
Second perspective
Climate change driven conflict
constellations
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Conflict
constellation 1:
Climate-induced
decline in food
productionConflicts on land
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Droughts in the A1B-Scenario
Ensemble-Projections 2080-2099
IPCC, 2007
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Soil degradation & desertification
(intensity and dynamic)
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Conflict constellation 2: Climate-induced degradation
of freshwater resources - conflicts on access to water
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Access to Water (today)
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Processes of desertification towards
2041/2070 (Hadley Centre)
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Glaciers: Global Mass Balance
World Glacier Monitoring Service
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Glaciers in the Himalya: Importance for Water
Supply ... Many people affected: agriculture/ water
UNEP 2007
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Cities Affected by Glacial Retreat
(Lima effect)
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Conflict
constellation 3:
climate-induced
increase in storm
and flood desasters
- political instability/
economic crisis
„New Orleans“
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Hurricans
Hurrikan-Energie (PDI)
Meerestemperatur (August-Oktober)
Globale Mitteltemperatur
Atlantik
Messdaten:
Hurrikan-Energie korreliert mit Meerestemperatur
Beide sind deutlich angestiegen (Emanuel, Nature 2005)
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Hurricanes: intensities and patterns (1960-2006)
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Sea level Rise
88 cm
70 cm
21 cm
9 cm
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Bay of Bengal and Ganges-Brahmaputra-MeghnaBay
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Conflict constellation
4: environmentallyinduced migration
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The third Perspective
Climate change impacts on global politics
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Climate Change - conflict constellations in world
regions
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Vulnerabilty towards climate change
- New lines of conflict?
Highest vulnerability vs. largest per capita CO2 emissions
Highest vulnerability towards climate change vs. largest CO2 emissions (from fossil fuel combustion
and cement production, and including land use change, kg C per person and year from 1950 - 2003)
Largest per capita CO2 emitters
Largest per
capita
emitters, and highest
social and / or agro-economic vulnerability
Highest
social
and CO
/ or2agro-economic
vulnerability
Highest per
social
and CO
/ or2agro-economic
vulnerability
Largest
capita
emitters, and highest
social and / or agro-economic vulnerability
Areas with highest ecological vulnerability
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Overstreching the capacities of the global
governance system - destabilization
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Posible increase in the number of weak and fragile states
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Risks for the global economy (Stern Report)
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Growing distributional conflicts between the main drivers of climate
change and the most affected (polluter pays principle; compensations)
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Triggering and intensification of migration
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Climate change undermining basic human rights (access to water,
food): the „new human rights debate“ .... Legitimacy problems for the
OECD (loosing soft power)
•
Limits of classical security policy: Impacts of Tipping Points could be
unmanagable
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WISSENSCHAFTLICHER BEIRAT DER BUNDESREGIERUNG
GLOBALE UMWELTVERÄNDERUNGEN
How to avoid dangerous climate
change?
The transformation towards a low
carbon global economy
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KOPENHAGEN 2009
Reduktionspfade zur Vermeidung gefährlichen Klimawandels
Emissions per capita (tCO2eq./person)
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Annex I
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Global total
Non-Annex I
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15
10
5
0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
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Towards 450 ppmv CO2
12000
10000
8000
6000
China
EU 25
India
4000
Convergence
level:
2–3 tCO2eq/cap
2000
Brazil
Japan
2100
2090
2080
2070
2060
2050
2040
2030
2020
2000
2010
Saudi Arabia
0
1990
MtCO 2eq
USA
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Exemplary transformation path: it shows that the sustainable
transformation of global energy systemy is technologically viable
WBGU, 2004
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El potencial de energías
rjfcjvlknovables hasta 206
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Klimawandel: Herausforderungen für Bildung
Erderwärmung als Motor globalen
Wandels > Umweltschutz
Sozial- und Naturwissenschaften
verzahnen
-
-
Klimadiplomatie
internat, Energiepolitik, Innovation
Entwicklungspolitik
Außen-, Sicherheitspolitik
Internationale
Finanzmarktentwicklung ...
-
Klimaforschung, Physik, Biologie,
Erdsystemanalyse
Klimafolgenforschung, Ökonomie
des Klimawandels
Energiesysteme und
gesellschaftliche Entwicklung
Globale Gerechtigkeitsfragen
Weltwissen
-
-
-
Fairness
Interessenausgleich
Nationale und globale Interessen/
Identitäten
Demokratie unter Bedingungen der
Globalisierung
-
post-westliche/ multipolare
Weltordnung/ Aufstieg Asiens: EU
Denken in globalen
Zusammenhänge (wechselseitige
Einmischung als Voraussetzung für
Problemlösung): Weltenergiesystem
globaler Emissionshandel,
Welternährung, jedes zweite
Gebäude in China
„It is not important to predict the future,
but to be prepared for the future.“
Perikles, 493-429 BC
© 2007 Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik
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