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Appraisal of Climate Change Adaptation in Nigeria
Olumide David Onafeso
Department of Geography, Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye, Nigeria
Introduction
Today, climate change is one of the most serious threats to sustainable development. This is due to
its anticipated adverse impacts on the environment, human health, food security, economic
activity, natural resources and physical infrastructure. Although, the global climate varies
naturally, it has become generally agreed that rising concentrations of anthropogenically-produced
greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere are causing changes in the climate (United Nations,
1992). The general effects of climate change have already been observed, and scientific findings
indicate that precautionary and prompt action is necessary (Schneider et al, 2000).
Whereas mitigation has traditionally been the essential approach in meeting the challenge,
adaptation to the effects of climate change is now acknowledged as necessary for responding
effectively and equitably to the impacts of both climate change and climate variability. In recent
years, adaptation has become a key focus of the scientific and policy-making communities and is
now a major area of discussion in the multilateral climate change process. Adaptation has been
implicitly and explicitly linked with development-focused action, particularly as the IPCC has
underscored that developing countries are disproportionately vulnerable to climate change and lack
adaptive capacity. Development processes and trajectories will be affected by the rate of climate
change, and this is especially important for developing countries with growing economies.
Adaptation is recognized as a crucial response because even if current agreements to limit
emissions are implemented, they will not stabilize atmospheric concentrations of GHG emissions
and climate (Wigley, 1998). Particular attention will therefore be needed to be paid to the
management of water and other natural resources, agricultural activities, and the sources and
generation of energy.
Under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), adaptation appears as a
cross-cutting theme (United Nations, 1992). While the first Conference of the Parties (COP 1) in
1995 addressed funding for adaptation, it was not until the adoption of the “Marrakesh Accords” in
2001 that adaptation began to be more widely seen as a prominent area for action. Following the
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release of the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report, COP 9 in 2003 requested the UNFCCC Subsidiary
Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) to initiate work on the scientific, technical
and socioeconomic aspects of, and vulnerability and adaptation to, climate change.
Parties reached a milestone at COP 10 in 2004, known as the Buenos Aires Programme of Work
on Adaptation and Response Measures. COP 10 set up two complementary tracks for adaptation:
the development of a structured five-year programme of work on the scientific, technical and
socioeconomic aspects of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change under SBSTA, which was
adopted at COP 11 in 2005; and the improvement of information and methodologies,
implementation of concrete adaptation activities, technology transfer and capacity building under
the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI). At COP 12, parties concluded the initial list of
activities to be undertaken under the five-year SBSTA programme of work and renamed it the
“Nairobi Work Programme on Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change” or
NWP. Parties also made progress on the governing principles of the Adaptation Fund, which was
established by the Kyoto Protocol to fund adaptation activities through a two-percent levy on
emission reduction projects undertaken under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).
The IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report and key finding from Working Group II on impacts,
adaptation and vulnerability indicates that hundreds of millions of people will be exposed to
increased water stress, that many millions more people will be exposed to flooding every year, and
that access to food in many African countries will be severely compromised. Furthermore, the
report states that adaptation will be necessary but that many impacts can be avoided, reduced or
delayed by mitigation. At COP 13, held in Bali, Indonesia, in December 2007, a roadmap for a
post-2012 climate regime was agreed, with adaptation as one of the four building blocks (along
with mitigation, finance and technology). Delegates further developed details and modalities of the
Adaptation Fund at COP 14, held in Poznań in December 2008. The Fund is expected to be
operational soon; however, a new agreement was concluded at Copenhagen in December 2009
during COP 15.
The issues of climate change have indeed generated significant global attention in recent time.
These concerns have not been without the traditional partitioning of major international interests
along economic and development lines. While the developing world continues to wonder what the
pertinent issues resulting from global warming are, the industrialized nations are divided on the
intensity of the crises and perhaps also on the appropriate responses. The urgency of the need to
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arrest the alarming rate at which the world is warming also seems to be another point of division.
One major issue is the response of nations to the signing and compliance with the Kyoto
Agreement to reduce carbon emission rates.
Another political partitioning in global reaction to the issues of climate change is in terms of
academic research and findings. While some frontline climate scientists opine that the primary
causes of climate change are traceable to increasing and alarming rates of atmospheric temperature
due to the earth trappings of anthropogenic greenhouse gases since the industrial era (Hansen et al.,
1981; 1990a; 1990b; 1997a; 1997b; 1997c; 1998; 2000), others argue that the causes of climate
change are largely due to natural forcings such as the fluctuations in the solar cycles (Lean and
Rind, 1998; Foukal and Lean, 1990; Friis-Christensen and Lassen1991), the Milankovitch theory
which suggests that normal cyclical variations in three of the Earth's orbital characteristics is
probably responsible for some past climatic change (Berger, 1988; Valdes and Glover, 1999). Yet
another school have maintained that abrupt climatic change is normal in the history of the planet
earth. In a landmark research result, Lockwood (2001) considered the climate system as a
dissipative, highly non-linear system with non-equilibrum conditions and has concluded that some
unusual properties should be expected. These unusual properties include bifurcation points with
marked instability just before the point, magnification of semi-periodic oscillations around
bifurcation points and variations in the strength of teleconnections with distance from equilibrium.
He discussed these properties and illustrated the climatic system using both the historical,
Holocene and glacial climate records. Abrupt climatic changes and oscillations were found on all
time-scales, while the amplitudes and frequencies of climate variability and teleconnections were
found to vary between different time periods. A number of persistent oscillations were observed,
particularly one about 1500 years, but their amplitudes were found to vary considerably between
time periods. The Holocene was concluded to be no more climatically benign than the similar
period in the Eemian.
Furthermore, Lockwood (2001) observed that the North Atlantic thermohaline circulations appear
to be of major importance in explaining many abrupt climate oscillations. This is because
thermohaline circulations show many features of non-linear systems. When cooled, water with the
salinity normal in the world’s oceans becomes denser, but does not reach its maximum density
until near its freezing point, at about -2°C. The case of freshwater is however different, in that, it is
densest at about 4°C, so that when the surface is cooled below that temperature, the coldest water
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stays on top, and at 0ºC, floating ice is formed. When the salt water of the deep oceans cooled at
the surface, convection occurs, hence the coldest and densest portions gradually sink to the depths.
Low density surface layers in the oceans usually arise either due to surface heating or due to the
addition of relatively fresh continental runoff or precipitation onto the ocean surface. However, the
surface heating in the tropics effectively creates low density surface layers which continuously
seek to spread over the entire surface of the ocean. This creates the thermohaline circulation
whereby the warm, low density, surface water of tropical and sub-tropical origin spreads out
towards higher latitudes, and after cooling by evaporation and sensible heat loss, leaves the surface
and moves equator-ward at depth. The importance of thermohaline circulation in the climate
system is thus, because it provides the major oceanic share of the transfer of warmth towards the
pole (Rahmstorf, 1999; Lockwood, 2001).
It may however, be impossible to conceptually separate the oceanic wind-driven from the oceanic
thermohaline circulation since the wind-driven circulation is forced by wind stress variations,
whereas the thermohaline circulation is forced by density anomalous owing to air sea fluxes of
heat and fresh water imputs extending form the surface to the abyssal ocean. In reality, both
circulations are coupled to each other, especially in the North Atlantic. The thermohaline
circulation plays a crucial role in the climate system because of its large atmosphere (Bryden et al.,
1991; Roemmich and Wunsch, 1984; Pierrehumbert, 2000).
Furthermore, while some key policy makers have maintained that adaptation to climate change is
the most appropriate approach to reducing its effects on the most vulnerable areas of the world,
others have insisted that mitigation of the causative factors and a complete change of industrial and
development attitude is the only way to bring down the impacts to the barest minimum. Whereas,
others have adopted a blend of both approaches thereby forming another rounds of partitioning in
the conceptual view of both the climate change problem as well as its solution. The economic costs
of the different approaches have also led to divisions among nations. In Africa for example, where
the vulnerability to climate change is likely to multiply significantly in the nearest future,
budgetary allocation towards adaptation are either low or completely absent. This however
contrasts the case of the European Commission which is spending huge amounts on mitigation
policies such as alternative and renewable energy.
Given Nigeria’s status as a fossil-fuel dependent economy with a large climate sensitive
agricultural sector, the development of a climate change policy and response strategy is critical; as
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climate change portends a serious threat to poverty eradication and sustainable development in
general. One of the key pillars of the Vision 20:2020 is investment in low carbon fuels and
renewable energy. Achieving the goal of low carbon, high growth and resilient socio-economic
system for equitable and sustainable socio-economic and environmental development faces some
challenges which include stability and sustainability of enabling environment, adequate
institutional and human resources capacity and availability of adequate resources to address
mitigation and adaptation initiatives to address climate change. Thus Government need to ensure
that economic growth, resource management and climate change mitigation and adaptation can all
happen simultaneously if this will be done effectively.
The National Adaptation Strategy and Plan of Action on Climate Change for Nigeria (NASPACCN) which was established in December 2011 acknowledged that Nigeria’s climate is already
changing. To prepare for and respond effectively to the impacts of climate change, adaptation is
the key. Adaptation should be comprehensive and articulated in a way that recognizes the varying
needs and vulnerabilities of all sections of the society. Accordingly, the Government of Nigeria
and a number of civil society organizations embarked upon the development of National
Adaptation Strategy and Plan of Action on Climate Change for Nigeria (NASPA-CNN).
World leaders including the Nigerian delegation have recently converged in New York and then in
Paris for two important meetings bothering on global future. The New York meeting, on one hand,
adopted the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as the new global development framework.
These SDGs – a set of 17 integrated goals and 169 time-bound targets, which are the successors to
the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), that were implemented mostly in developing
countries from 2000 to 2015, with mixed results – are designed to continue where the MDGs left
off and have been touted as the mechanism through which the world would be radically
transformed in the next 15 years. The Paris meeting, on the other hand, produced and adopted by
consensus an agreement negotiated during the 21st Conference of the Parties of the UNFCCC
(COP 21). Apart from seeking to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below
2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C
above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts
of climate change; the new COP 21 agreement also aim at increasing the ability to adapt to the
adverse impacts of climate change and foster climate resilience and low greenhouse gas emissions
development, in a manner that does not threaten food production; while also making finance flows
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consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient
development. This paper therefore attempts an appraisal of the Nigeria’s approach to climate
adaptation.
Politics, Awareness and Perception of Climate Change
In the midst of these politics, world leaders have taken to different degrees of commitment towards
the global drive to reverse or at least slow down the pace of the crisis. This is due to the fact that
no scientific evidence has denied the present trend of global warming even though there remain
doubts over the rate. The impacts of climate change have been vivid in every portion of the earth,
from the poles to the equator and from the temperate regions of the world to the tropics. This
consensus, have lead to continued discussion on the climate change topic. The profound impacts
such as biodepletion, flooding, drought, energy inefficiency and sea level rise have forced key
decision makers in the world to continue to negotiate a way out of this singular problem facing
development in a sustainable manner.
It is in this light, after several campaigns and misgivings, that the Heads of State, Heads of
Government, Ministers, and other heads of delegation present at the United Nations Climate
Change Conference 2009 in Copenhagen endorsed both decision x/CP.15 that extends the mandate
of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long term cooperative action and decision x/CMP.5 that
requests the Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments of Annex I Parties under the Kyoto
Protocol to continue its work. The agreement that the Copenhagen Accord be operational
immediately is an indication however, of a new dimension to the global politics of climate change.
This is an important milestone in the history of global efforts to agree on terms towards meeting
the challenge of the changing global climate. However, the few countries which boycotted the
Copenhagen Summit shortly before its commencement may constitute another partition in the
global concerted effort at meeting the climate change problem.
In the concluding remarks of Simbine et al. (2008), special efforts to build internal capacity to
integrate climate risk management into the policy and planning process of the Nigerian economy
were advocated. Political will and commitment to develop a “National Climate Change Mitigation
and Adaptation Strategy” was also advocated for Nigeria.
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Doubtless that the international knowledge and awareness of climate change is increasing by the
day. However, people’s perception of, and reaction to, climatic change issue vary not only along
economic status and literary levels, but also there appears to be a spatial gradient in perception
people’s from rural to urban areas (Gbadegesin and Ogundele, 2008). While regular perception
studies are conducted in form of opinion survey in most developed countries, such surveys which
are necessary in order to create awareness about climate change and to assess the public level of
knowledge about this global phenomenon have been advocated (Gbadegesin and Ogundele, 2008).
Similarly, Adelekan and Gbadegesin (2005) have concluded that climate issues be integrated into
environmental studies curriculum of primary and secondary schools in Nigeria and other African
countries, as this will “go great lengths” in building environmental responsibility in citizens.
According to Gbadegesin and Ogundele (2008), environmental perception can be described as a
piece of knowledge that is acquired by the individual as a result of his visual, tactile, verbal and
auditory contact with the environment. From their studies, confirmation abounds that respondents’
knowledge of climate change and its consequences are higher in the more urban coastal (Lagos)
areas than in the hinterland (Ibadan) areas. Although, the differences in the years of the studies
may account for the differences (Adelekan and Gbadegesin, 2005; Gbadegesin and Ogundele,
2008), the conclusion that African nations need to include climate change issues as a vital
component of long-term policy and planning, can not be over echoed. This is particularly
important as since the majority of developing countries are highly-vulnerable to the potential
effects of the changing global climate (Gbadegesin and Ogundele, 2008).
Key Impacts of Climate Change in Nigeria
Nigeria has started experiencing adverse climate conditions with unfavourable impacts on the
wellbeing of her inhabitants. Persistent droughts and flooding, off season rains and dry spells have
greatly affected growing seasons (Hulme, 2001), whereas the country is largely dependent on rain
fed agriculture. Consequent rivers and lakes are drying up and a reduction in river flow is being
experienced in the northern areas especially resulting in alterations in water supplies for use in
agriculture, hydro-power generation and other users. Following the release of the 4th IPCC
Assessment report, Climate Change has been confirmed with Africa expected to be worst hit by
the effects with Nigeria inclusive (Christensen et al, 2007).
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In Nigeria, the impact of the change in climate may be difficult to handle given the present lack of
scientific and institutional capacity to improve knowledge and understanding of the prevailing
processes involved. In the face of increasing scientific evidences on global warming, the readiness
of both Nigerian scientists and the policy/decision makers to fill the widening gap in meeting up
with the numerous challenges of climate change is doubtful. The disproportionate impact on
Nigeria will therefore ensue for a combination of reasons. While global warming is expected to be
greater over land than over sea since land retains heat more than water, there is also increasing
evidence that sub-Saharan Africa south of the Sahelian zone will be particularly hit by the effect of
vertical rises and falls in air currents which would greatly influence desiccation and extreme
climatic events (Hulme, 2001). Nigeria is already experiencing an increasing incidence of disease,
declining agricultural productivity, and a rising number of heat waves. Declining rainfall in already
desert-prone areas in northern Nigeria is causing increasing desertification, the former food basket
in central Nigeria is now empty, and people in the coastal areas who used to depend on fishing
have seen their livelihoods destroyed by the rising waters (UNEP/GEF, 1997).
The agricultural sector which provides employment for the rural populace contributes some
percentage of the Nigerian Gross National Product. Given this dominant role of agriculture, it is
evident that even minor climate deteriorations can cause devastating socioeconomic consequences.
Environmental degradation and attendant desertification are major threats to the livelihoods of the
inhabitants of the frontline states of northern Nigeria. This may lead to increasing population
pressure, intensive agricultural land use, overgrazing, bush burning, extraction of fuel wood and
other biotic resources. Women and children are particularly expected to be the most vulnerable to
the impacts of climate change (Christensen et al, 2007). Suggestions have however been made of a
mechanism for tackling climate change and global warming, through the idea of using Carbon
Sinks to soak up carbon dioxide (Spittlehouse and Stewart, 2003) such as reforestation or planting
of new forests, which is a popular strategy for the logging industry in nations with large forests
interests like Nigeria.
Climate Change Adaptation in Nigeria
Adjustment to climate change has been the standard climate policy issue for African countries.
Adaptation options are of two main types: reactive, which are measures taken in response to
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climate change, and preventive measures taken in advance of climate change to minimize or offset
adverse impacts. Suggested adaptation strategies for Africa concentrate on the reduction of
vulnerability to current climatic events, as well as the inclusion of adaptation policies in planning
for long-term sustainable development. Adaptation measures are relevant for a variety of natural
resources and socio-economic sectors in Africa such as natural ecosystems, agriculture, managed
forests, water resources, coastal zones, energy, and infrastructure.
Since the impacts of climate change will depend on changes in temperature, precipitation, sea
levels, and concentrations of carbon dioxide, as well as other features of the climate, the ability to
adapt to climate change and to reduce vulnerability is expected to be more constrained for the lowincome populations (Wilbanks et al, 2003), particularly in Nigeria. Although our society has a long
record of managing the impacts of weather- and climate-related events, nevertheless, additional
adaptation measures will be required to reduce the adverse impacts of projected climate change
and variability, regardless of the scale of mitigation undertaken at the global level over the next
two to three decades. Moreover, vulnerability to climate change can be exacerbated by other
stresses such as those arising from, for example, current climate hazards, poverty and unequal
access to resources, food insecurity, trends in economic globalisation, conflict and incidence of
diseases such as HIV/AIDS (Huq et al, 2005).
Adaptation can reduce vulnerability especially when it is embedded within broader sectoral
initiatives. There is high confidence that there are viable adaptation options that can be
implemented in some sectors at low cost, and/or with high benefit-cost ratios. However,
comprehensive estimates of global costs and benefits of adaptation are limited, much less of local
costs (IPCC, 2001). A range of barriers limit both the implementation and effectiveness of
adaptation measures. The capacity to adapt is dynamic and is influenced by a society’s productive
base including: natural and man-made capital assets, social networks and entitlements, human
capital and institutions, governance, national income, health and technology (IPCC, 2001). Even
societies with seemingly high adaptive capacity may remain vulnerable to climate change,
variability and extremes (Gorthmann and Patt, 2005). It is therefore important to take the issues of
climate change adaptation more seriously in Nigeria.
In Nigeria, climate change adaptation is being coordinated through the “Building Nigeria’s
Response to Climate Change” (BNRCC) Project which was established to assist the Nigerian
people to organize and have a systematic approach, on a national scale, to address adaptation
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requirements recognized as necessary to deal with climate change impacts and reduce vulnerability
at various levels, especially the local level, closest to peoples lives. The project was intended to
help build informed responses by enhancing capacity at the community, state and national levels to
implement effective climate change adaptation strategies, policies and actions.
BNRCC is also expected to help Nigeria meet its obligations under the UN Framework
Convention on Climate Change. The project is funded by the Canadian International Development
Agency (CIDA) and is being managed and implemented by a consortium of CUSO and Marbek
Resource Consultants in partnership with the Nigerian Environmental Study/Action Team (NEST).
From the several consultations already carried out, BNRCC has noted that the understanding of
vulnerability to climate change impacts and the strategies or pathways for adaptation are currently
enveloped in high uncertainties, particularly in West African countries where adequate scientific
data are lacking in many respects. BNRCC has thus concluded that research is needed to support
improved understanding of the extent of past, current and future climate variability and potential
climate change in Nigeria, as one basis for developing adaptation options likely to ensure that poor
and disadvantaged groups also benefit from the adaptation process rather than bearing the burdens.
Social, economic, technological and institutional factors or issues are other bases identified for
appropriate action and information on adaptation. However, BNRCC has already completed
secondary research in Nigeria to assess climate change impacts in the following multi-sector
clusters:

human settlements and health;

water resources, wetlands and freshwater ecosystems;

energy, industry, commerce and financial services;

agriculture, food security, land degradation/desertification, forestry and biodiversity; and

coastal zones and marine ecosystems.
These multi-sector clusters are scientifically concluded and could form a baseline for subsequent
studies and formulation of climate change adaptation strategies in Nigeria. Nonetheless, it is
important to emphasize the importance of the special adaptation requirement in the areas of water
resources and agriculture, giving the global attention and the local demands for water and food
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security which has been concluded the primary effects of climate change for which adaptation is
inevitable (Easterling et al., 2003).
Water Resources Management and Adaptation
Water is a fundamental component of many economic activities. The impact of climate change on
the quality and quantity of water therefore will be felt by such economic activities in one way or
another. Water managers are accustomed to adapting to changing circumstances, many of which
can be regarded as prototypes of future climate change, and a wide range of adaptive options has
been developed. However, supply-side options are more familiar to most water managers; hence
demand-side options may require more attention. Water management is evolving continually, and
this evolution will affect the impact of climate change in practice.
Climate change is therefore likely to challenge existing water management practices, especially in
Nigeria with less experience in incorporating uncertainty into water planning. The generic issue is
incorporation of climate change into the types of uncertainty traditionally treated in water
planning. Integrated water resources management (IWRM) (Bogardi and Nachtnebel, 1994;
Kindler, 2000) which is here recommended for Nigeria is increasingly globally regarded as the
most effective way to manage water resources in a changing environment with competing
demands. IWRM essentially involves three major components which include: explicit
consideration of all potential supply-side and demand-side actions, inclusion of all stakeholders in
the decision process, and continual monitoring and review of the water resources situation. IWRM
is an effective approach in the absence of climate change, and there already are many good reasons
for it to be implemented. Adopting integrated water resources management will go a long way
toward increasing the ability of water managers to adapt to climate change.
Agricultural Management and Adaptation
The agriculture sector historically has shown enormous capacity to adjust to social and
environmental stimuli that are analogous to climate stimuli. Historical analogs of the adaptability
of agriculture to climate change include experience with historical climate fluctuations, deliberate
translocation of crops across different agroclimatic zones, rapid substitution of new crops for old
ones, and resource substitutions induced by scarcity (Easterling, 1996). Increasing numbers of
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studies have investigated the effectiveness of agronomic adaptation strategies (e.g., adjustments in
planting dates, fertilization rates, irrigation applications, cultivar traits) in coping with climateinduced yield losses and gains (Parry et al, 1999; Darwin 1999; Darwin and Kennedy, 2000).
Considerable costs could be involved in this process of adaptation, however—for example, in
learning about and gaining experience with different crops or if irrigation becomes necessary. In
some cases, a lack of water resulting from climate change might mean that increased irrigation
demands cannot be met. Adaptation is unlikely to come without cost. In a literature survey, Tol et
al. (1998) concluded that adaptation costs (as opposed to net costs of damages) are not reported in
most impact studies. Yet transition costs (e.g., to retrain farmers in new practices) and equilibrium
costs (e.g., to develop additional irrigation or apply more fertilizer) may be considerable. The
absence of a benefit-cost calculus for adaptation is a key deficiency.
Existing studies also fail to account for the process of long-term, endogenous adaptation of
technology in ways that are consistent with the extensive economic literature on that subject
(Antle, 1996). This process also will involve significant costs. An extensive body of economic
research has studied the benefits and costs of agricultural research and has shown that institutions
that are responsible for agricultural research adapt agricultural technology across space and time in
response to relative resource scarcity (Hayami and Ruttan, 1985). Quiggin and Horowitz (1999)
argued that changes in fixed capital for on-farm and off-farm infrastructure may be the most
significant cost associated with adaptation to climate change.
Significant costs can be incurred to counter the effects of climate change on animal production;
moreover, the impact of a warmer climate in terms of costs is not linear: Larger changes in climate
can increase costs exponentially (Hahn and Morgan, 1999). Possible benefits of climate change
during cooler seasons are not well documented, but the benefits are likely to be less than the
consequential negative hot weather impacts (Hahn et al., 1992). The ability of livestock managers
to cope with climate is demonstrated daily in their coping with normally varying conditions. A
variety of management adaptations are available for livestock production systems. For example,
Hahn and Mader (1997) outline a series of proactive management countermeasures that can be
taken during heat waves (e.g., shades and/or sprinklers) to reduce excessive heat loads. Historical
success in coping with climate variability suggests that livestock producers are likely to adjust to
climate change successfully. Johnson (1965) provides examples from advances in genetics and
breeding as related to the environment. These capabilities should allow adaptation to changing,
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less favourable circumstances associated with projected rates of climate change. However, coping
can entail significant dislocation costs for certain producers. For individual producers,
uncertainties associated with potential climate change imply additional risks related to how and
when to adapt current production practices (Lewandrowski and Schimmelpfennig, 1999).
Conclusion
Preventive adaptation options are considered on the basis of two basic criteria, namely flexibility
and the potential for net benefits. Adaptation options from the global perspectives should be
implemented in Nigeria if they yield net benefits independent of climate change. High priority
should be given to the preventive adaptation options that would not be effective if implemented as
reactive policies. Examples of situations where preventive policies are needed relate to irreversible
or catastrophic impacts, when decisions affect long-term investments, and when trends are
unfavourable.
Reduction of vulnerability to climate change is probably a more realistic adaptation policy for
Nigeria than efforts to reduce GHG emissions which is not to be left undone, though. This is
because vulnerability relates to several key sectors. A more comprehensive illustration of
adaptation to climate change vulnerability in Nigeria would need a separate article, but a couple of
examples can be mentioned here.
1) The dependency on bio-fuels constitutes a serious energy management issue in Nigeria and
indeed most countries in Africa, often leading to local deforestation. Thus, increasing the
range of substitution possibilities for household energy consumption also represents an
adaptation measure.
2) In agriculture, relatively small climatic changes may have profound effects on the farming
capacity. Agricultural research promoting drought-resistant seeds or climate-adapted
species, or developing new sources of income for farmers can reduce vulnerability to
climate change (Adelekan and Gbadegesin, 2005).
3) Improved education for farming communities will increase mobility, income, and increase
material standards and thus reduce vulnerability to climate change.
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4) Likewise, improvements in public health will increase the population’s resistance to
climate change and the impacts of disease vectors spreading into new areas.
Policies to curb the climate change by reducing the consumption of fossil fuels like oil, gas or
carbon, have significant economical impacts on the producers or rather the suppliers of these fuels.
Nigeria is the eighth largest oil supplier in the world and the ninth largest deposits of gas. The
Nigerian national economy would be massively affected by a sustainable reduction of fossil energy
consumption. Nigeria is practically a monoculture: about 80% of the government income, 90-95%
of the export earnings and more than 90% of the foreign exchange revenues evolve from the oil
sector. However, during the last years the government of Nigeria have tried to diversify. Special
attention is nowadays paid to gas which emerges in the joint-production of oil. So far the gas has
mainly been flared (75%), simply due to the lack of technical facilities to make use of it.
A study commissioned by the World Bank in 2007 indicates that Nigeria accounts for roughly onesixth of the world-wide gas flaring which in turn, spews some 400 million tons of carbon dioxide
into the atmosphere. However, the World Bank survey has listed Nigeria and 15 other oil
producers, as countries that have progressively reduced gas flaring. Following the Kyoto-Protocol
is a double-edged sword for Nigeria: The probably positive long term effects on the climate change
are opposed to the negative short term effects for the economic development. Observing the
Kyoto-Protocol would reduce the income of the OPEC – States, amongst them Nigeria, about 25%
until 2010. This would be a catastrophe for the Nigerian development plan.
The prospects of a changing climate have a variety of implications for the Federal Government in
Nigeria. Scientific attention and public questions about climate change may have begun to increase
pressure for research to provide answers, and for elected officials to make decisions about whether
and how to address climate change. This is evident in the numerous recent attempts of government
officials to either make statement on the issue of climate change or decide on how to tackle climate
change impacts such as flooding, drought and desertification. Although, it is not clear how much is
invested by the Nigerian government yearly on climate change research, voluntary programs, and
financial incentives to advance low-GHG-emitting technologies, there is no doubt that a paltry
amount have been spent from time to time on combating the obvious effects of climate change. For
example, the problematic flooding of the Lagos coastal areas has recently attracted the financial
attention of the Federal Government of Nigeria. However, setting clear and realistic objectives for
research and programs remain a near-term challenge for federal programs, but such measures
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would facilitate sustainable oversight of program performance and improvements. Of particular
interest may be questions about the rate at which science (also integrated with economics) can
narrow uncertainties about the magnitude, rate, geographic distribution, and other characteristics of
climate change, and the degree to which changes may be predictable, hence facilitating effective
and timely adaptation. These questions bear importantly on the trade-off between acting sooner
with imperfect information versus delaying action in expectation of reducing uncertainties.
Furthermore, the federal government manages many assets that may potentially be affected by
climate change. For example, climate change could bring benefits or threats to public lands,
particularly to national parks and other physical and biological assets valued for their high natural
and cultural amenities. As climate change alters grasslands, forests, fisheries, and other resources,
their values will change, as may appropriate management objectives and plans. Similarly, climate
change may affect the demand and supply of energy for the operations of government, with
implications for infrastructure planning, expenses, and supply choices. The federal government
may find it desirable to redefine objectives and provide for institutional flexibility and adaptive
management as climate, and the resources that depend on specific conditions, change. For
example, such ecological impacts as competition among species may lead to conflicts among
endangered species or other resource management goals. Evaluations of objectives and practices in
light of potential future climate change may enhance future successes of resource management.
Although some climate changes and their impacts may occur relatively smoothly, ecosystems
frequently exhibit abrupt changes in response to incremental pressures. In terms of socioeconomic
consequences, abrupt changes may constitute emergencies or even disasters that would require
federal responses and possibly financial and other resources. Preparedness for, and managing
aftermaths of, floods, droughts, pest infestations, fires, epidemics, and coastal erosion are a few
examples of the physical pressures climate change may bring. Such changes can also create social
dislocations and strife. Beyond immediate responses, the federal government also needs to be
prepared to act as the insurer of the last resort; this role could expand if private insurance becomes
less available or more costly, or if people do not procure adequate insurance.
In the same vein, all levels of government may find it useful to consider possible climate change
implications when planning their long-lasting infrastructure or other projects, including energy
procurement, water supply and flood control, investment in buildings and transportation systems,
etc. This could lessen the problem of obsolete, expensive, or stranded assets that could arise with
15
possible climate and policy changes. Furthermore, expected climate changes outside the borders of
Nigeria could have important implications for the Federal government as well. For example,
climate change impacts in Niger, Chad and other neighbouring countries, could be more adverse
than in the Nigeria, due partly to more severe projected climate changes and partly to lower
capacity to adapt. While the desert encroachment is causing serious worries of biodepletion in the
Northern parts of Nigeria, the severity of the projected drought which is likely to affect these two
neighbours may result in serious conflicts which may have untold effects on the bilateral relations.
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Summary
Appraisal of Climate Change Adaptation in Nigeria
Olumide David Onafeso
Department of Geography, Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago-Iwoye, Nigeria
Climate change is one of the most serious threats to sustainable development due to its anticipated
adverse impacts on the environment, food, security and physical infrastructure. Global warming
due to increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is likely to lead to a large
scale shift in the pattern of agricultural potential. The water resource sector is one of the most
strongly impacted by climatic change, against a background of increasing demand for portable
water, sea-level rise may lead to flooding of lowland and sea water intrusion into coastal aquifers,
while variability in climate may see more intense rainstorm resulting both in increased run-off
leading to increased flooding, reduced recharge and aquifer deflection. The level of awareness and
degree of commitment on the path of the government and other relevant agencies towards climate
change adaptation is quite discouraging because of the absence of long term policies and planning.
Adaptation modes, being proactive and reactive should be put in place where emphasis on
preparedness for potential effect of climate change such as educating individuals on the cause and
effect of climate change, improvement in public health services to increase resistance to climate
change and providing alternatives for bio-fuel for household use. This paper explores the probable
effect climate change will have in Nigeria especially with water resources and in the agricultural
sector and the level of awareness and various modes of adaptation.
Keywords: Climate Change, Water Resources, Impacts, Adaptation, Perception
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