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Is it possible to limit global warming to no more than 1.5°C?
Submitted to Climatic Change Letters
SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIALS
Ranger1, N., Gohar2, L. K., Lowe2, J. A., Raper3, S.C.B, Bowen1, A. & R.E. Ward1
1
Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political
Science, London, UK
2 Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
3 Manchester Metropolitan University (MMU), Manchester, UK
Corresponding author: LK Gohar, [email protected]
A. The Climate Modelling Approach and its Assumptions
The assessment of climate outcomes used the MAGICC model (version 4.1, Wigley and Raper,
2001) with an updated tuning as used in Lowe et al. (2009). The MAGICC model is a simple
climate model; an upwelling diffusion energy-balance model connected to carbon and other gas
cycle models, which can be tuned to represent the output of more complex models. The model is
computationally fast, so suitable for running large numbers of simulations in order to explore
uncertainties. The advantage of the model approach used in this study is that it treats important
uncertain climate assumptions, like climate sensitivity, in a probabilistic way. This is a significant
advantage over a deterministic approach. However, it does not remove model dependency.
The parameters are chosen such that they are in general consistent with the findings of the IPCC
Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) (Solomon et al. 2007). As such, the climate assumptions are
likely to lead to more stringent cuts in emissions being needed than predicted by some of the
older pre-AR4 studies, because Solomon et al. 2007 increased estimates of the sensitivity of the
Earth’s system to human action across a number of variables, including the climate sensitivity.
Below we describe our assumptions related to the four main uncertain components/parameters:
Climate Sensitivity: There is much debate over climate sensitivity, which means that it is not
currently possible to define such a distribution objectively (see Box 10.2 of Meehl et al. 2007).
We use the distribution given by Murphy et al. (2004) as it incorporates information from both
models and spatially explicit observations (whereas most studies include only one or the other or
only global mean constraints). Comparison with the IPCC conclusions on climate sensitivity
suggests that the “most likely” value of Murphy et al. is well aligned with current consensus, but
that Murphy et al. under-predicts the likelihood of both low and high temperature outcomes
relative to IPCC conclusion (this is unsurprising given that the IPCC conclusions represent a
consensus over many studies). This will mean that the uncertainties in temperature given in this
study will be narrower than the current consensus.
Ocean Diffusivity: The ocean diffusivity is an important determinant on the rate of warming. A
distribution of ocean diffusivity was estimated by fitting a log-normal distribution to the modelderived ocean mixing rates across the range of current global climate models (Table 9.A1,
Cubasch et al., 2001).
Carbon Cycle Feedbacks: The uncertainty in the temperature-carbon cycle feedback
amplification parameter was derived from the recent model inter-comparison study, C4MIP
(Friedlingstein et al. 2006). Each of the model projections are treated with equal probability and
no observational constraints are applied.
Assumptions and Representation of the Effect of Aerosols on Climate: the direct and indirect
radiative forcing from aerosols is highly uncertain. For example, the IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report (IPCC 2007) gave an uncertainty range of -0.9 to -0.1 Wm-2 for direct aerosol forcing and
-1.8 to -0.3 Wm-2 for the indirect aerosol forcing in 2005 and rated our “Level of Scientific
Understanding” of the forcings as medium/low and low respectively. This uncertainty is
represented stochastically in MAGICC and the uncertainty range incorporated is roughly
consistent with AR4.
Modelling the historic warming and comparison with observations:
0.6
HadCRUT3v (Brohan et al. 2006)
MAGICC 4.1
0.4
MAGICC4.1: incl. solar & volcanic radiative forcing (Meinshausen et al. 2011)
o
Temperature anomaly ( C)
MAGICC 4.1: total historic forcing from Meinshausen et al. 2011
0.2
0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
Fig. 1 Past warming relative to 1960-1990 mean as simulated by MAGICC 4.1 with the modelling
framework used in this study and described in Lowe et al. (2009) (thick black solid line). The
observed global annual mean warming as estimated by HadCRUT3v dataset is shown in red (Brohan
et al. 2006,). The grey line highlights the impact of including the radiative forcing from solar and
volcanic contributions taken from the RCP concentration calculation and data group database. The
blue line is the warming simulated by MAGICC using the total radiative forcing available from the
RCP concentration calculation and data group database.
The simulation of past warming by MAGICC is in close agreement with observed temperature
rise in the latter half of the twentieth century (Fig 1). Prior to 1950 the simulated warming is
cooler than observations. Further investigation suggests that the anthropogenic aerosol radiative
forcing estimated by MAGICC is smaller than other estimates such as those available from the
RCP concentration calculation and data group (RCPCCDG) (Meinshausen et al 2011) database
and result in lower simulated temperatures for the historical period. However the impact of the
lower historic aerosol forcing than observed has little significance on projected median
temperatures in the twenty first century (a 1% lower median peak temperature rise seen in the 21 st
century than the standard simulation if including the solar, volcanic and lower aerosol historic
radiative forcing in MAGICC).
B. Path Assumptions: Greenhouse Gases
This section describes the greenhouse gas emissions assumptions of the pathways generated for
the study. For information on the Set C paths in Section 3.3, refer to Table 1 and van Vuuren et
al. (2007).
Set A
Baseline Greenhouse Gas Emissions: The baseline emissions to 2020 are based on the paths
described by Meinshausen (2006). Global emissions are assumed to be 37 GtCO2e in 1990, 41
GtCO2e in 2000 and 47 GtCO2e in 2010. Historical baselines are uncertain; for example, the
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report estimated an uncertainty of ±4 GtCO2e per year in land-use CO2
emissions alone over the 1990s (Solomon et al. 2007). The historical emissions used here are
within the uncertainty range of alternative data sources, such IEA (2009) and WRI (2011).
Multi-gas greenhouse gas emissions assumptions: The time-evolving proportion of long-lived
greenhouse gases relative to carbon dioxide (in terms of CO2 equivalent) is assumed to follow the
SRES A1B scenario.
The halogen containing compounds controlled by the Montreal Protocol assumptions:
The halogen containing compounds that deplete the ozone layer are assumed to be controlled by
the Montreal Protocol and the emissions decrease over time to zero by 2200 for all paths
considered in this work.
Set B.
Baseline Greenhouse Gas Emissions: The baseline emissions to 2007 follow the SRES A1B
scenario. This scenario was chosen for the similar (although above) total anthropogenic
greenhouse gas emissions to estimates based on observations (Gohar and Lowe 2009).
Multi-gas greenhouse gas emissions: The method of construction of the pathways is given in
detail in Gohar and Lowe (2009). Briefly, CO2 and halogen containing compounds are projected
to reduce at a given emissions rate after the peak in emissions in 2014. The emissions of methane
are projected to follow the CO2 emissions trend assuming the SRES B1 (Nakicenovic and Swart,
2001) ratio of methane to CO2 emissions. Nitrous oxide emissions are assumed to transition from
SRES A1B to SRES B1 emissions by 2027.
The halogen containing compounds controlled by the Montreal Protocol assumptions:
Emissions of the halogen containing compounds that deplete the ozone layer follow the same
assumptions as in Set A pathways.
Extended Pathway Comparison
The cumulative emissions in the 21st century for the paths listed in Table 1 in the main text are
compared in Fig. 2 illustrating the higher cumulative emissions of the RCP3-PD and the majority
of Set B paths than those of Set A. A more detailed illustration of the multi-gas emissions for
paths in Set A, Set B and RCP3-PD are shown in Fig 3.
Cumulative emissions 2000-2100 ( GtCO2e )
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
RCP3-PD
B:7
B:6
B:5
B:4
B:3
B:2
B:1
A:10
A:9
A:8
A:7
A:6
A:5
A:4
A:3
A:2
A:1
0
Scenario name
Fig 2 The cumulative emissions for the scenarios examined and detailed in Table 1 in the main paper.
The light grey shaded bars are those that give at least a 50 per cent chance of global mean
temperatures being no more than 1.5°C, with an overshoot of not more than 50 years with the high
aerosol scenario only, and those with dark grey shading are the Set A paths that meet this goal with
both the high and low aerosol scenario.
45
9
(a)
(b)
8
A:1
A:2
A:3
A:4
B:3
B:4
C:RCP3-PD
35
30
25
20
Methane emissions (GtCO2e/yr)
Carbon dioxide emissions (GtCO2/yr)
40
15
10
5
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-5
1980
7
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
0
1980
2100
2000
2020
4.5
Kyoto fluorinated gases emissions (GtCO2e/yr)
Nitrous oxide emissions (GtCO2e/yr)
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
2000
2020
2040
Year
2060
1.4
(c)
4
0
1980
2040
2080
2100
Year
Year
2060
2080
2100
(d)
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Year
Fig. 3 The emissions for carbon dioxide (a), methane (b), nitrous oxide (c) and the Kyoto fluorinated
gases (d) up to 2100 as defined in a selection of paths from Set A, Set B and the RCP3-PD path. The
solid curves represent paths that achieve a more than 50 per cent change of limiting warming to no
more than 1.5°C after allowing for an overshoot of no more than 50 yeas under a high or low aerosol
future aerosol assumption. The dotted curves offer the same level of chance but only for the high
future aerosol assumption. The black dashed line describes the RCP3-PD path
C. Future Aerosol Emissions Assumptions
Projecting anthropogenic aerosol emissions requires one to anticipate trends in fossil-fuel use as
well as the aerosol emissions intensity of that activity. We use projections of the aerosol intensity
of total carbon dioxide emissions (i.e. the aerosol emissions per gigatonne of carbon dioxide
emission) from two sources:
 ‘High’ scenario: based on the IPCC SRES B1 scenario (Nakicenovic et al. 2000)
 ‘Low’ scenario: based on simulations described by Meinshausen (2006)
Both scenarios project a reduction in the aerosol intensity of carbon dioxide emissions over time
(consistent with Fisher et al. 2007), but declining at different rates. The aerosol intensities are
applied to the projected total carbon emissions for a given path to calculate the overall aerosol
emissions.
The Set C RCP3-PD emissions are taken from the RCPCCDG website (http://www.pikpotsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/, accessed December 2011)
.
90
A:1
80
Aerosol emissions (TgS/yr)
A:2
70
A:3
60
A:4
50
B:3
40
B:4
30
C:RCP3-PD
20
A:1-low aer
10
A:2 -low aer
0
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Year
Fig. 4 The aerosol emissions from 1990 to 2100 from a selection of Set A, Set B and the RCP3-PD
paths. All Set A and Set B emissions shown are for the high aerosol assumption, unless otherwise
stated (A:1 and A:2 low aer) The set C RCP3-PD aerosols are taken from the extended RCPCCDG
database (http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).
D. A comparison of the RCP3-PD projected warming to other studies.
The simulations using the RCP3-PD harmonized emissions in this work yields a median warming
of no more than 2.1°C in the 21st century and is in close agreement with the Arora et al. (2011)
findings of 2.3°C and within the range of 1.3°C to 2.3°C given by emulating the temperature
responses of nine CMIP5 GCMs (Good et al, submitted). Our findings are higher than estimates
from Meinshausen et al. (2011) and Schewe et al. (2011) which are closer to 1.5°C (see Fig. 5).
Median warming above pre-industrial (
o
C)
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
This study
Arora et al. 2011
Schewe et al.
2011
Meinshausen et
al. 2011
Fig. 5 Estimates of peak median warming above pre-industrial levels for the RCP3-PD scenario.
Since our RCP3-PD warming estimate is derived from the greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions
trajectories from the RCPCCDG as opposed to the radiative forcing provided on the website we
can compare the forcing estimates. If we look at the total anthropogenic radiative forcing
projections shown in Fig. 6, we see our total anthropogenic radiative forcing from emissions for
RCP3-PD (dashed black line) is a little higher than the MAGICC 6 projections from RCPCCDG
(purple, Meinshausen et al., 2011) with the difference due almost entirely to the aerosol
contribution (Fig .7). There is uncertainty in estimating the radiative impact of aerosols spanning
the chain from aerosol precursors to aerosol radiative forcing estimates. However, looking at Fig.
6 we can see path B:1 from our study has a similar radiative forcing to that of the RCP3-PD from
RCPCCDG and we can use this to provide some commentary on the causes of the differences
between our study and the study with the greatest chance of keeping warming to 1.5°C. As
mentioned before, the B:1 path from our study has a similar integrated total anthropogenic
radiative forcing to that of RCP3-PD from RCPCCDG and the projected median peak warmings
are 1.8°C and slightly above 1.5°C respectively. The other differences in these warmings will be
due to the model parameters used in the two studies. If we now compare the path B:1 warming to
the RCP3-PD path as simulated from emissions in this study, the median peak warmings are
1.8°C to 2.1°C with the differences due to the total anthropogenic radiative forcing1 of the two
paths (Fig. 7). Therefore, the difference between our warming estimate for the RCP3-PD path and
the Meinshausen et al. (2011) estimate can be explained by the difference in the total
anthropogenic radiative forcing projections and the model parameters used in the studies.
1
Since both simulations are from the same modelling framework and thus the modelling parameters are the
same.
-2
Median total anthropogenic radiative forcing (Wm)
3.5
3
B5
B1
2.5
2
1.5
RCP3- PD
B5
B1
RCP3-PD (RCPCCDG database)
1
0.5
0
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Year
Fig. 6 The total anthropogenic radiative forcing between 1990 to 2100 for the RCP3-PD, B:1 and B:5
paths as simulated in the main paper from the harmonized greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions and
the RCP3-PD total anthropogenic radiative forcing as provided on the RCPCCDG (http://www.pikpotsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).
0.4
0.3
-2
Radiative forcing in 2100 (Wm )
0.2
0.1
RCP3-PD*
B:4
RCP3-PD
-0.2
B:3
B:1
A:4
A:3
A:2
-0.1
A:1
0
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5
CH4
Trop O3
Halogenated gases
N2O
Aerosol
-0.6
Scenario name
Fig 7 The radiative forcing in 2100 for the non-CO2 gases and constituents for a selection of paths
from Set A, Set B and the RCP3-PD path (calculated from the harmonised emissions in our
modelling framework). The RCP3-PD* set of radiative forcings are taken from the RCPCCDG
(http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/)
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