Download Final Report Appendix 2d - climate change

APPENDIX 2D: APPROACHES TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN GERMANY (SCENARIOS, MITIGATION, IDENTIFYING
RISKS, ADAPTATION)
Note: There is a wide range of activities related to climate change and spatial planning in Germany. It is not possible to cover all activities of the 16 federal
states, their agencies and research institutions within the limits of this review. We tried to reduce this complexity by focusing at the federal state level on
northern Germany and the topics ‘Costal Management’ (States of Schleswig-Holstein, Hamburg, Niedersachsen) and ‘River Management along the river Elbe’
(States of Sachsen, Brandenburg). By identifying key projects within these states we exemplarily show pilot projects related to our research question.
Table 1: Forecasting Climate Change (Germany)
Topic
Key organisations/institutions involved
in forecasting climate change
Approach
Federal Ministries:
(1) BMBF, Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung / Federal Ministry of Education and Research.
BMBF is the key ministry for funding/commissioning research, for example by establishing DEKLIM, the German
Climate Research Programme.
(2) BMU, Bundesministerium für Umwelt / Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and
Nuclear Safety.
BMU is funding/commissioning research via its Federal Environmental Agency (BUA)
(3) WBGU, Wissenschaftlicher Beirat der Bundesregierung Globale Umweltveränderung / German Advisory
Council on Global Change.
WBGUs mission is to describe and assess the current environmental situation and current environmental
trends, as well as to point out environmental problems and suggest possible ways and means of preventing or
correcting them.
As part of its mission, it issues a report every two years which is submitted to the German federal government.
The reports describe and comment on current environmental policy developments and deal with several topics
in depth.
In addition, the Advisory Council issues special reports in which specific environmental problems are examined
extensively. In order to be able to advise the federal government in a timely manner before important
environmental decisions are made, the Environmental Council issues statements and comments in which it
Topic
Approach
formulates recommendations with regard to current environmental policy matters, such as, for example, with
regard to currently planned legislation or funding/commissioning research. As an advisory council it is not
directly involved in forecasting but has great influence on what will be done in the future.
Federal Institutions:
(4) UBA, Bundesumweltamt / Federal Environmental Agency.
Preparation, assessment and evaluation of scientific basis on climate change and its consequences. Deduction of
environmental qualities and environmental aims of action. Collaboration in developing international treaties for
climate change (convention on controlling climate change, Kyoto-Protocol). This includes the preparation of
future scenarios of climate change and the formulation of strategies for mitigation and adaptation.
(5) DWD, Deutscher Wetterdienst / National Meteorological Service.
Germany’s National Meteorological Service is responsible for meeting meteorological requirements arising from
all areas of economy and society in Germany. Their area of responsibility is defined by the statutory tasks of
providing information and performing research as laid down in the Law on the Deutscher Wetterdienst. DWD
provides data basis on contemporary climate necessary for climate research. Its short-term forecast models are
a basis for long-term models necessary for climate change forecast.
Research Institutions governmentally funded/ endorsed:
(6) DEKLIM, Deutsches Klimaforschungsprogramm / German Climate Research Programme.
The Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) has launched this Climate Research Programme which
supports the National Climate Protection Programme and the Federal Government's Sustainability Strategy. The
German Climate Research Programme pursues the following key objectives:
To improve the understanding of the climate system and of how it can be influenced by humankind.
To reduce uncertainties in analysis and forecasting.
To derive strategies for dealing with climate change.
DEKLIMs key major aims are the increased integration of the results of German research in the international
assessment of climate development (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change/IPCC) and providing basic
know-how and guidance in the field of practical climate protection measures. DEKLIM supports a wide range of
Topic
Approach
different research programmes partly dealing with forecasts.
(7) PIK, Potsdam Institut für Klimafolgenforschung, / Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
Founded in 1992 PIK was to run in a radically holistic approach. On the one hand scientists from all relevant
disciplines (i.e. meteorology, ecology, economic sciences, systems analysis, etc.) should work together closely
and without bias (“horizontal integration”), on the other hand all aspects of the relevant problem (from its
formulation to proposals for its solution for decision-makers) should equally be considered (“vertical
integration”). The possibilities to contain human-induced (“anthropogenic”) climate change at a tolerable level,
together with suitable measures to adapt to the unavoidable warming of the planet (with its particularly grave
consequences for the poorest developing countries), should be at the core of the institute’s research.
As an interdisciplinary institute PIK is involved in climate forecasting as well as in research on impacts and
adaptation measures.
(8) DKRZ, Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum / German Climate Computing Centre.
The German Climate Computing Centre is the national German service centre for climate researchers.
By its article of association, DKRZ is responsible to install and operate a high performance computer system for
basic as well as applied research in the field of climatology and related disciplines. Its basic task is the provision
of computer power for quantitative computation of complex processes in the climate and earth system with
sophisticated, realistic numerical models.
The DKRZ also maintains facilities for storage and management of extremely large data sets including software
tools and hardware. The DKRZ is a coordinating node in the national and European network of climate
researchers. it has the third biggest climate computer worldwide.
(9) Max-Planck Institut für Meteorologie.
The major objective is to undertake a system analysis of the Earth System dynamics with emphasis on the Earth
Climate. More specifically, aim of the institute is to analyse the natural variability in the Earth system, and assess
how the system is affected by changes in land-use, industrial development, urbanization, and other humaninduced perturbations. Among the tools used by MPI-Met scientists are advanced numerical models that
simulate the behaviour of the atmosphere, the ocean, the cryosphere and the biosphere, and the interactions
between these different components of the Earth’s system. Within a wide range of different research
programmes partly dealing with forecasts.
(9.1) M&D, the Model and Data group.
M&D is hosted at the Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie. The group's mission is to provide central support
Topic
Approach
for the German and European climate research community. Emphasis is on application of climate models and
climate data.
(10) GKSS, Forschungszentrum Geesthacht.
GKSS is one of the fifteen national research facilities that belong to the HGF (Hermann von Helmholtz Society
of German Research Centres). The GKSS Institute for Coastal Research (IfK) and its application-oriented,
interdisciplinary "Water and Climate in Coastal Areas" research program are dedicated to studying the
condition, the changes, the dynamics and the use of coastal areas and their adjoining regions. The Institutes task
is to discover the scientific bases for the effective and sustainable use of coastal regions. The results of the
research are used by governmental bodies and social organizations to decide upon and assess measures that
would alter the environment, as well as contributing to the efficient and cost-effective monitoring of the
coastline.
The work is organized into the subjects "Anthropogenic and natural regional changes", "Materials with future
relevance in coastal regions", "Methods for monitoring coastal waters" and "Prognosis and control of coastal
processes".
(11) Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung.
Activities of the Institute focus on the physical and chemical processes in the atmosphere with the objective of
understanding regional and global changes of the climate and evaluating their consequences. Major issues include
changes of the chemical composition of the atmosphere by natural impacts and man’s acting, the water cycle
and natural catastrophes, processes in the stratosphere above about 12 km height and in the transition layer to
the troposphere below as well as consequences of climate changes in sensitive regions. Work comprises a
number of methods ranging from laboratory experiments on the degradation of ozone in test chambers and
large field measurement programs with aircraft, balloons, and radar devices to the modelling of individual
aerosols in the air and using the global stratosphere model. Novel measurement instruments and processes are
developed and applied for measurements on the ground (soil humidity, turbulence in the air layer close to the
ground), in the free atmosphere (balloon probes, aircraft sensors), and from satellites (ENVISAT environmental
satellite with the MIPAS instrument). Models also cover the interaction with the biosphere (exchange of energy,
water, and trace gases with plants). In cooperation with other Helmholtz Centers, models are coupled with all
other components of the Earth’s system.
(12) FORSCHUNGSZENTRUM JÜLICH.
Project Management Jülich (PTJ) undertakes the project management of support programmes and research
priorities for various contractors: above all for the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), the
Topic
Approach
Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology (BMWA), the Federal Ministry for the Environment (BMU) and
also federal state ministries.
Since all the processes in soil, water and air are closely intermeshed, the five Jülich environmental institutes
cooperate in the interdisciplinary "Department of Chemistry and Dynamics of the Geosphere". With their
investigations, the environmental researchers provide findings on how the resources of soils, water and air can
be used in a resource-conserving way and what role is played by plants. They perform environmental precaution
research and supply forecasts for future developments in the environment.
(13) DLR, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt / German Aerospace Center
Climate research satellite data provided by the DLR offer global information about clouds, rain, water vapour,
trace gases, temperature and vegetation. Together with ground and balloon measurements they make a
significant contribution toward improving weather predictions and providing reliable basic information for
climate models. Another application field is monitoring adherence to international environmental conventions
such as the Kyoto Protocol. Satellite data are used to detect and analyse ozone concentration in the
atmosphere as well as ground level ultraviolet radiation. Satellites play an important role in monitoring air
quality and in determining suitable locations for solar power plants and wind energy converters.
(14) GLOWA-ELBE - INTEGRATED ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL CHANGE IMPACTS ON ENVIRONMENT
AND SOCIETY IN THE ELBE RIVER BASIN
The GLOWA-Elbe with its 19 partners is a part of the "Global Change in the Hydrological Cycle" (GLOWA)
framework project founded by the BMBF, and is an example of integrative interdisciplinary and applicationoriented global change research. Main focus is the research of integrated strategies for wiser and sustainable
management of water at local levels in consideration of global ecological interactions and basic socio-economic
conditions.
Aims
 Compilation and modelling of complex dependencies and in the interactions between hydrologcial cycle,
climate, land use and society in Elbecatchment
 Derivation of regional climate futurescenarios
 Implementation of the developed instruments at the area of the Elbe River Basin for evidence of provident
identification and analysis of problems and conflicts dependent on global change and deflaction of actions
and strategies
Topic
Organisational level at which
forecasting is taking place
Approach
The general climate change research is commissioned and financed on a national level by the two ministries
BMBF / Federal Ministry of Education and Research and BMU / Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature
Conservation and Nuclear Safety. Research and forecasting is undertaken by the big research institutions stated
above. The national research is focusing on basic research, on describing and understanding regional and
sectoral climate phenomenon and developing more and more sophisticated climate models like ECHAM (global
atmosphere model), REMO (regional atmosphere model) or Baltimos (integrated regional model for the Baltic
Sea). In this respect German climate research is well advanced, although forecasting on a national level is weak.
The results of this basic research support global forecasts e.g. as from the IPCC and they are used in regional
forecasts on a federal state level.
The 16 states of Germany with their ministries and institutions support a wide range of regional focused climate
change research programmes that are covering regional forecasts as well as considerations of impacts. There
rarely is a strict distinction between forecasting and identifying impacts. An overview of these activities is nearly
impossible. The two mentioned projects ‘Best - Brandenburg Simulator of Environmental and Socio-economic
Transformations’ and the ‘Scenario on Climate Change for the State of Saxony’ are examples for these
activities founded and endorsed by the regional federal level.
Regional forecasts are not integrated into a national forecast. You may say that they reflect the federal structure
of Germany.
Topic
The methods used for forecasting
Approach
NOTE:
On a national political level the international IPCC forecast is widely used. The ”Fourth Assessment Report” is
scheduled for 2007.
The German research community developed a range of climate models like ECHAM (global atmosphere model),
REMO (regional atmosphere model) or Baltimos (integrated regional model for the Baltic Sea) used for specific
research. These climate models are general ones and they are used to generate regional specific forecasts by
combining them with local weather data or other data like e.g. GIS based information on land use. The
resolution of the forecast is depending on data input and the combination of climate models. The already
mentioned projects ‘Best - Brandenburg Simulator of Environmental and Socio-economic Transformations’ and
the ‘Scenario on Climate Change for the State of Saxony’ are examples for this regional use of climate models
developed by national research institutions, similar research is taking place in the other 14 Federal States.
(15) IPCC
Method:
IPCC combines worldwide research to which Germany is contributing. IPCC provides a holistic view on global
climate change.
Output:
Based on 4 Scenarios over a timescale of 100 years:
A1: high economic growth
A2: heterogeneous world with traditional values
B1: clean technologies and a rejection of materialism
B2: local solutions for economic and ecologic sustainability
IS 92: a ‘nothing will change’ approach
IPCC general forecast for northern Europe:
temperature will rise for between about 1,4 ° and 5,8 °
rise in continental droughts in summer
more frequent and intense rainfalls
increased intensity of winds
rise of sea levels
increase in extreme weather situations
Data is generated on a scale of 1000x1000 km2
Topic
Approach
Availability
Data mainly in charts is easily available via internet. Despite the low resolution IPCC is regarded as useful on a
national level, as it creates a general awareness.
(16) Global Model: ECHAM
Method:
Various model systems have been developed on the basis of ECHAM, e.g. ocean-atmosphere model,
atmosphere model including the sulphur-cycle, etc. A chemistry-climate model has been developed in cooperation with the DLR: ECHAM/CHEM, which regards tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry. It is applied
for the simulation of the development of the ozone layer as well as for the simulation of ozone-smog situations.
In contrast to chemical transport models, which simulate the chemical evolution during observed
meteorological situations, ECHAM/CHEM is based on a climate model and therefore suited for the simulation of
the future development of chemical composition of the atmosphere, including all climate-chemistry interactions.
Output:
ECHAM calculates in time steps of 20 to 40 min. the development of weather system on the globe
(temperature, winds, clouds) in a horizontal resolution of about 300 to 500 km, depending on the version.
(17) REGIONAL MODEL: REMO
Method:
The regional climate model Remo has been developed at the Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie Hamburg.
REMO is mainly based on the weather prediction model EUROPAMODELL of the DWD. It has been extended
by additional parameter, as they are part of climate model ECHAM4 and linked to the oceanic model BMSO.
Output:
It appeared that the regional climate model REMO is able to reproduce observed rainfalls, steam contents,
amounts of water drainage.
(18) REGIONAL MODEL: BALTIMOS
Topic
Approach
Baltimos is a Climate Model for the Baltic Sea developed by the Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie and
others, funded by the BMBF.)
Method:
Baltimos aims at describing a regional climate model that is more detailed and therefore more exact in its
predictions than global models and their general outputs. Baltimos links existing components for the
atmosphere (REMO), for the Baltic Sea and Seaice (BSIOM), for Hydrologie (LARSIM) and Inland Lakes and
Vegetation (Baltimos)
Output:
Baltimos will describe the circulation of Water and Energy in the Baltic Area and can be used for a regional
precise climate change forecast.
Availability:
The climate model will be available in 2005.
(19) FORECAST: SCENARIO ON CLIMATE CHANGE FOR THE STATE OF SAXONY. (FU
Berlin, Institut für Meteorologie, Sächsisches Landesamt für Umwelt und Geologie):
Method:
Based on the global climate model ECHAM4 by the DKRZ the Institut for Metrology of the FU Berlin described
a regional scenario for Saxony based on a statistical downscaling.
It is a single scenario for the next 50 years and mainly aimed on general specifications of climate change impacts
for the region, especially in relation to the role of the Erz Mountains.
Output:
Mean annual temperatures will rise by 2,7°, up to 4°in spring.
Sunshine duration will increase, especially in spring and summer, while rainfalls will decrease. The dry climate is
accompanied by extreme weather situations, especially torrential rain, increasing risks of floods along rivers.
Against the global trend to increased rainfalls in winter, it is expected that this will not apply for parts of Saxony.
(windward and leeward effects of the Erz Mountains)
Topic
Approach
Availability:
An abstract with charts and maps is available via internet.
(20) FORECAST: BEST - BRANDENBURG SIMULATOR OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIOECONOMIC TRANSFORMATIONS (PIK Potsdam, Ministry for Agricultur and Ecology of the Federal
State of Brandenburg)
Method:
The consistent integration of relevant environmental and societal processes and the explicit representation of
human dimensions is the main scientific challenge of BEST. More broadly, the project will contribute to the
advancement of regional integrated modelling and agent-based modelling.
The regional simulator aims at representing the complex integrated regional dynamics of societal and
environmental development on the timescale of decades to a century. On this timescale, global change may
significantly impact on Brandenburgs natural resources. Changes in culture, individual life style and political
preferences may have an additional strong influence on resource use and vulnerability to climate change.
To integrate productivity estimates in agriculture and forestry with the flow of water and substances through
the region, the linkage of the hydroecological model SWIM and the forest dynamics model 4C is pursued as one
initial task. Agent-based descriptions of resource use and societal dynamics are linked to the physically based
models of the environment. Agriculture, forestry and the water sector will serve as foci in the study of societyenvironment interactions, exploring plausible futures and understanding historic developments.
BEST combines the climate models SWIM and 4C with descriptions of resource use to make a forecast for the
federal state of Brandenburg in relation to agriculture and forestry. Climate change is described in 2 scenarios
till 2055:
 Temperature (+1,4°)
 Rainfall (-10% postponement on winter period)
 increased sunshine duration
 decreased cloud cover.
Availability:
A detailed Report is available via internet. It contains both maps and data that can be used by decision makers
Topic
Approach
(21) FORECAST: GLOWA ELBE (BMBF, PIK)
Method:
Based on the regional climate model REMO, there are four focus points of the project:
Modelling of the Elbe as a whole, from climate models related to local environments up to land use structures
Large-scale water management modelling with integrated socio-economic analysis in the Spree/Havel region
Analysis of and model adaptation to specific research questions in sub-regions
Integrated strategies for the sustainable settlement of water use conflicts.
Output:
Climate Szenario 2050; no climate protection




temperature rise 1,4°C
rainfalls decline up to 200mm with exceptions in Harz Mountains and Thüringer Wald
strong decline of rainfalls in summer, slightly increase in winter.
Groundwater renewal decreases on 60% of contemporary level
Availability:
A detailed interim report is available via internet, the final report will be published this year after GLOWA-Elbe
I conference. Data on Climate change forecasts are available only within text documents, not being really useful
for decision makers.
Topic
Compatibility with spatial planning
Approach
On the federal Level IPCC forecast is widely used. Its general data mainly increases the general awareness
instead being of great practical value for spatial planning. There is no specific national climate change forecast.
On the regional level there are a lot of forecasts related to the federal states (e.g. BEST and the forecast for
the Federal State of Sachsen) or to regional ecosystems (GLOWA Elbe). These forecasts are often part of
action/policy oriented projects communicated mainly within these projects. Data is highly compatible within the
special project but the outputs of climate change forecasts are not automatically published and summarized in a
way that they are easily understandable for a wider public.
A summary of the strengths and
weaknesses of climate change
forecasting.
The strength of German climate change research is the profound basic research both in paleo and neo
climatology as well as in modeling. It is a necessity to improve the understanding of fundamental weather
principles in order to make predictable forecasts on a regional level. (25)
Its weakness is a lack of climate change forecast. You may say, that the expected impacts of climate change in
Germany had been regarded as insignificant. The flood events and the extreme heat periods of recent years
have changed this appraisal and lead to a wide range of research on a regional and federal state level, the
amount of forecasts is to a certain extent dependent on regional impacts from recent events. (28)
Although more needs to be done, the regional structure of climate change forecasts in Germany is a good
approach. It allows to focus on regional climate situations in mountain areas, lowlands, coastal zones, along
rivers etc. A too strong generalization is avoided and forecasts can easily linked to action oriented measures.
Any indication of future work planned
in climate change forecasting.
Climate modeling is still at an early stage. As a foundation for any valid forecasts and related policies, basic
research into the Earth’s paleoclimate and a systematic analysis of existing data from different parts of the
atmosphere in order to improve the understanding of climate variability e.g. is regarded as essential. (23,25).
The WBGU recommended in the mid 90ies a greater development of Integrated Regional Models and an
organization of transdisciplinary and transinstitutional research networks for studying issues of sectoral and
political relevance. On a regional level this recommendation have been and will be carried out.
DEKLIM is a first step from basic research to action oriented research. The BUA is currently discussing how
forecasting within the federal structure of Germany can be integrated into a common structure. It is essential
that forecasts become comparable and can be integrated on a national level. This is seen as a first step to
develop a concept for adaptation policies. A paper will be published this year. (28)
Topic
Key documents used
Approach
(1) BMBF
http://www.bmbf.de/forschung/index.php
(2) BMU
http://www.bmu.de/de/1024/js/sachthemen/klima/kurzinfo/
(3) WBGU
http://www.wbgu.de/wbgu_gutachten_haupt.html
(4) BUA
http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/index-e.html
(5) DWD
http://www.dwd.de/en/en.htm
(6) DEKLIM
http://www.deklim.de/seiten/default.htm
(7) PIK
http://www.pik-potsdam.de/
(8) DKRZ
http://www.dkrz.de/dkrz/intro_s
(9) Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie
http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/
(9.1) Modelle und Daten
www.mad.zmaw.de
(10) GKSS
http://www.gkss.de/index_d_js.html
(11) Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe
Topic
Approach
http://www.fzk.de/
(12) Forschungszentrum Jülich
http://www.fz-juelich.de/portal/
(13) DLR
http://www.dlr.de/
(14) Glowa Elbe
http://www.glowa-elbe.de/index_en.html
(15) PIK
www.pik-potsdam.de
(16) IPCC
www.ipcc.ch
(17) The general circulation model ECHAM. DLR.
Source:http://www.dlr.de/ipa/Forschung/Instrumente/ECHAM/;internal&action=_setlanguage.action?LANGUAG
E=en
Language: German / English
(18) Das Klimamodell REMO. FU Berlin
Source: http://secus.met.fu-berlin.de/forschungsprojekte/pr_16.htm
Language: German
(19) Baltimos
www.baltimos.de
(20) Klimaprognose für Sachsen - Zusammenfassender Bericht. FU Berlin.
Source: http://www.tu-chemnitz.de/wirtschaft/ewi/links/kw.php
Language: German
(21) Studie zur klimatischen Entwicklung im Land Brandenburg bis 2055 und deren Auswirkungen auf den
Topic
Approach
Wasserhaushalt, die Forst- und Landwirtschaft sowie die Ableitung erster Perspektiven. Potsdam Institute for
Climate Impact Research 2003.
Source: http://www.proka.de/start.htm?/ipool/forsch/klima/klima-rep.htm
Language: German
(22) Overview on the most important research achievements and on method development in GLOWA-Elbe. F.
Wechsung, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
Source: http://www.glowa-elbe.de/index1_en.html
Language: German / English
(23) Deutscher Bundestag, Drucksache 14/6529. Paläöklimaforschung in Deutschland –Stand, Ergebnisse,
Perspektiven (03.07.2001). Source: www.deklim.de/download/dokumente/KlAnfrPaleo.pdf
Language: German
(24) DLR. Deutsches Klimaforschungsprogramm DEKLIM (2001- 2006) Kick-Off-Meeting
2002. Source: http://www.deklim.de/download/dokumente/Tagungsband_Kickoff.pdf
Language: German
(25) German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU). World in Transition: The Research Challenge.
Springer Verlag, Berlin, 1997
Source (pdf): http://www.wbgu.de/wbgu_jg1996_engl.html
Language: German / English
(26) Future activities on the field of climate modelling. Taskgroup BMBF
Source: http://www.meteo.uni-bonn.de/deutsch/forschung/bmbf_final.html
Language: German
(27) Forschung für den Klimaschutz – Stand und Perspektiven. Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung
(BMBF),
Referat Öffentlichkeitsarbeit.
(28) Interviews Dr. Sartorius UBA, Frau Hornemann UBA.
Table 2: Mitigation (Germany)
Topic
Approach
Key organisations/institutions involved
in producing/providing information on
mitigation of climate change
Federal Ministries:
BMU, Bundesministerium für Umwelt / Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and
Nuclear Safety.
The Ministry for the Environment is the key institution in climate change mitigation. It formulates legislative
initiatives and pushes the discussion from an environmental point of view, (see also climate change)
BMBF, Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung / Federal Ministry of Education and Research.
BMBF is the key ministry for funding/comissioning research, for example by establishing DEKLIM, the German
Climate Research Programme, (see also climate change)
(1) BMF, Bundesministerium für Finanzen / Federal Ministry of Finance
Financing mitigation measures like tax reductions and the ecological tax reform are highly depending on the
BMF.
(2) BMWA, Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Arbeit
BMWA is responsible for politics that have direct or indirect significance for climate protection, especially in
relation to energy policies.
(3) BMVBW, Bundesministerium für Verkehr, Bauen und Wohnen / Ministry of Transport, Building and
Housing.
BMVBW i s responsible for politics that have direct or indirect significance for climate protection, especially in
relation to transport, building and housing.
IMA ‘CO2 Reduction, interministerielle Arbeitsgruppe / inter ministry task group formed by the ministries for
research, energy, traffic and building, agriculture, finances and ecology. It is a key institution in mediating among
the ministries.
Topic
Approach
WBGU, Wissenschaftlicher Beirat der Bundesregierung Globale Umweltveränderung / German Advisory
Council on Global Change (mission see climate change)
Federal Institutions:
BUA, Bundesumweltamt / Federal Environmental Agency (mission see climate change)
(4) KREDITANSTALT FÜR WIEDERAUFBAU
A bank owned by the federal government (80%) and the federal states (20%). It’s official mission is anchored in
the KfW law. The KfW Group gives impetus to economic, social and ecological development on a global scale.
With its long-term, low-interest loans KfW promotes small and medium-sized enterprises, for example. In
addition, the bank stimulates innovations and the equity capital market, advances environmental protection and
encourages the expansion of municipal infrastructure.
Research Institutions governmentally funded/endorsed:
(5) Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie / Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Energy and
Environment
The Wuppertal Institute explores and develops environmental policy guidelines, strategies, and instruments in
order to promote sustainability at the regional, national, and international level. The main focus lies on ecology
and its interrelation with the economy and society. Special emphasis is put on decoupling the use of natural
resources from the increase of wealth.
OTHER INSTITUTIONS:
(6) BDI
BDI is the central association of German industries. BDI represents the economic policy interests of the
industry among parliament, government and the EU. The BDI negotiated with the German government the self
commitment of the German industry to reduce CO2 emissions, preventing legal interventions.
Topic
Approach
Federal State Institutions:
Note: Federal State Ministries mainly implement policy produced on the national level. Nevertheless they run
own climate protection programmes. Some of them are exemplarily mentioned in the following.
Ministry for Ecology, Nature and Forestry of the federal State of Schleswig-Holstein / Ministerium für Umwelt,
Natur und Forsten des Landes Schleswig-Holstein
Saxony Ministry for Ecology and Agriculture / Sächsisches Staatsministerium für Umwelt und Landwirtschaft
Saxony Agency for Ecology and Geology / Sächsisches Landesamt für Umwelt und Geologie (LfUG)
Organisational level at which
information on climate change
mitigation is prepared
Policy on mitigation is mainly produced on a national level and then implemented at federal state level.
The national climate protection programme describes all actions taken by national ministries to reduce CO2
emissions till 2005 up to 70 million tons (for details see ‘practice’). (7)
The report ‘Policy Scenarios for Climate Protection’ (16, to be published 2004) evaluates the implemented
measures of the federal government on climate protection since 1998 in relation to the year 2010. Moreover
the report will describe measures that will ensure the government can meet its commitment to reduce CO2
emissions furthermore to 2030. The conclusion of the report serve as a contribution to IMA CO2 reduction.
Project partners for the report are the Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW), Fraunhofer Institut
für Systemtechnik und Innovationsforschung (FhG-ISI), Oeko-Institut.
The Environmental Report 2002 (15) sums up the environmental policy since change of government in 1998. As
remarkable examples it points out the denuclearization and the associated Energiewende (Energy Change) as well
as the progress in climate protection.
Topic
Approach
Regional level:
Besides the implementation of national regulations the federal states run their own measures in climate change
mitigation. They mainly aim on energy saving and the support of eco friendly energy sources and are similar to
the national programme. E.g. the federal state of Schleswig-Holstein specially supports wind energy, the federal
state of Sachsen runs a solar-initiative. In detail, measures are listed in documents like: ‘The Sustainable Strategy
for a future-compliant Schleswig Holstein’ or the ‘Climate Protection Programme of the Federal State of
Sachsen’. (17,18,21)
Local level:
1892 German cities and local communities passed resolutions on the local Agenda 21. The activities in course of
the local agenda 21 are accordingly wide spread. The local agendas implement a wide range of small measures
aiming -besides others- on energy saving and eco-friendly energy production for example in schools or public
buildings. The effect can hardly be quantified, but shouldn’t be underestimated, especially as they also have an
educational effect.
What topics does mitigation
information cover?
Mitigation information covers all aspects mentioned in the national climate protection program, see ‘practice’
below.
Compatibility with spatial planning?
The action taken is only partly compatible with spatial planning. The 100.00 roof programme and the Climate
protection program for the building stock aims more on building regulations than on spatial planning. (7)
The main measures are laid out in the national climate protection programme which is then implemented at the
regional and local level. They cover: (7)
What is the country doing in practice
to mitigate against climate change
Ökologische Steuerreform / ecological tax reform (12)
Stepwise increasing of energy prices as a stimulus for the development and use of new technologies.
Erneuerbare Energien Gesetz / renewable energy sources act (8,10)
promotion of new energy technologies
Topic
Approach
100.000 roof programm.
Promotion of photovoltaic investments
Kraft-Wärme Kopplung / Power-Heat Coupling
Energieeinsparungsverordnung / Reduction of energy consumption.
Reduction of energy consumption of new buildings by 30 % in relation to existing buildings, obligation for
refitting old buildings
Wärmeschutzverordnung / Climate protection programme for the building stock.
Providing cheap credits for the refitting of old buildings via the Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau
Selbstverpflichtungserklärung der deutschen Wirtschaft / self commitment of the German industry.
(11)
Commitment to reduce the specific CO2 emission till 2012 for up to 28%. Legislative measures by the
government are set out for this time.
LKW Maut / Truck Toll
Pricing for trucks using highways to create to push transport towards train use.
Tax reduction for fuel saving cars
Emission trading (13)
Implementation of EU regulations
Öko Audit (20,22)
Based on an EU initiative the Öko Audit has been widely implemented. On a voluntary base companies can
engage themselves in ecological management in order to reduce energy consumption, pollution etc. to a higher
degree then expected by law. Incentive to participate is an optimized energy input which means lower
production costs.
A summary of the strengths and
Germany is generally regarded as a leading nation in climate change mitigation and in promoting international
Topic
Approach
weaknesses of the country’s approach
to mitigation.
progress in climate change policy. To lead the way in a calculated manner offers good chances for ecological and
economic progress.
The ‘Renewable Energy Sources Act’ received international attention and is part of a wider concept of
‘ecological modernization’ including the agrarian sector, fiscal-, traffic- and town planning policies. Overall
Germany is forward looking in terms of climate change mitigation with several innovative policies. (27)
Any indication of future work planned
on climate change and mitigation.
Key documents used
Nevertheless essential shortcomings are pointed out that might negatively influence future progress:
CO2 Reduction of the past is to a great extent regarded as a result of the re-unification and decreased
emissions in east Germany and a result of the economic stagnation of the last decade.
Shrinking public awareness for questions of ecological policy in general.
The general success in cutting CO2 emissions conceals the fact, that emissions in the traffic sector and the
building stock are still increasing
High aims in formulating policies but shortcomings in the translation of measurements. The reason is mainly
seen in the fragmentation of decision making processes. While the BMU, the youngest and smallest ministry, is
responsible for formulating reduction aims the implementation lies within the responsibility of other ministries,
the task group ‘IMA CO2 reduction’ is widely regarded as a second best solution. (23)
The sub optimal organization of climate change policy within the central government as a cross sectional task is
regarded as a crucial point for future progress.
The ‘Renewable Energy Sources Act’ ensures subsidised prices for renewable energies. This is boosting wind
power plants, but in the same time it reduces incentives for German companies to export their technologies.
Several subsidies with impacts on climate change are still existing, for coal-mining industries, commuters and
home owners for example.
The german policy on mitigation is quite far ahead. Nevertheless there is a discussion on the future role of
Germany in this field of policy between the ministry for economics and the ministry for the environment
(BMWA and BMU). While BMU wants to reduce national CO2 emissions not only by 25% but by 40% in the
long run (15), the implementation of emission trading is regarded by the BMWA as a reason to remove
subsidies for renewable energies within the Renewable Energy Act. The economic stagnation is used to
argument against a further leading role of Germany in questions of mitigation.
Future action in this field of policy is therefore not predictable. In terms of mitigation it is likely that it will
stagnate on a high level.
General information on institutions:
Topic
Approach
(1) BMF, Bundesministerium für Finanzen / Federal Ministry of Finance
www.bmf.de
(2) BMWA, Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Arbeit / Ministry of Economics and Labour
www.bmwa.de
(3) BMVBW, Bundesministerium für Verkehr, Bauen und Wohnen / Federal Ministry for Traffic, Building and
Housing
www.bmvbw.de
(4) KfW, Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau / KfW banking group
www.kfw.de
(5) Wuppertal Institut
http://www.wupperinst.org/
(6) BDI
www.bdi-online.de
National documents:
(7) Nationales Klimaschutzprogramm, Beschluss der Bundesregierung vom 18. Oktober 2000 (Fünfter Bericht
der Interministeriellen Arbeitsgruppe „CO2-Reduktion“). Source:
http://www.bmu.de/de/800/nj/download/b_klimaschutzprogramm2000/
Language: German
(8) BMU, Amending the Renewable Energy sources Act. The government draft of 17 December 2003 in detail.
Source: http://www.bmu.de/en/800/nj/english/download/b_eeg_hintergrund_031217_uk/
Language: German / English
(9) Third Report by the Government of the Federal Republic of Germany in accordance with the Framework
Topic
Approach
Convention of the United Nations
Source :http://www.bmu.de/de/800/js/klimschutz/download/b_klima/
Fortschrittsbericht 2004
Language: German
(10) BMU, New research focus for renewable energies.
Source: http://www.bmu.de/en/800/nj/download/research_focus/
Language: German / English
(11) Vereinbarung zwischen der Regierung der Bundesrepublik Deutschland und der deutschen Wirtschaft zur
Minderung der CO2 Emissionen und der Förderung der Kraft-Wärme Kopplung in Ergänzung zur
Klimavereinbarung vom 9.11.2000.
Source: www.bewag.de/db_files/d455b3_f2f609fbb7_-6f28192616861660/ Vereinbarung_110501.pdf
Language: German
(12) Die Ökologische Steuereform: Einstieg, Fortführung und Fortentwicklung zur Ökologischen finanzreform.
Source: http://www.bmu.de/de/1024/js/download/b_oekosteuerreform/
Language: German
(13) BMU-Hintergrundpapier zum Emissionshandel.
Source: http://www.bmu.de/de/1024/js/download/b_hintergrund_pm237/
Language: German
(14) Hrsg. Stein, G., Strobel, B., Politikszenarien für den Klimaschutz, Untersuchungen im Auftrag des
Umweltbundesamtes. Band 5: Szenarien und Maßnahmen zur Minderung von CO2-Emissionen in Deutschland
bis 2020. Schriften des Forschungszentrums Jülich, Reihe Umwelt, Band 20, Jülich 1999.
Language: German
(15) Umweltbericht 2002
http://www.bmu.de/de/1024/js/presse/2002/pm077/
Language: German
Topic
Approach
(16) Politikszenarien für den Klimaschutz
http://www.fz-juelich.de/ste/index.php?index=63
Language: German
Federal States documents:
(17) Federal State of Schleswig-Holstein, Nachhaltigkeitsstrategie Zukunftsfähiges Schleswig Holstein.
Source: http://landesregierung.schleswigholstein.de/coremedia/generator/Aktueller_20Bestand/StK/Information/Ministerpr_C3_A4sidentin/nachhaltigkei
t.ht
Language : German
(18) Federal State of Schleswig-Holstein, Klimaschutz für Schleswig-Holstein - Handlungsfelder und Beispiele.
Ministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz und Landwirtschaft. 1999
Source: www.landesregierung.schleswig-holstein.de
Language: German
(19) Federal State of Schleswig-Holstein, Umweltgerechtes Planen und Bauen in Schleswg-Holstein – Kriterien,
Beispiele, Bilanzen. 1999
Source: http://www.landesregierung.schleswigholstein.de/coremedia/generator/Aktueller_20Bestand/IM/Brosch_C3_BCre_20_2F_20Publikation/Umweltgere
chtes_20Planen_20und_20Bauen_20in_20Schleswig-Holstein.html
Language: German
(20) Öko Audit Schleswig Holstein:
http://www.umwelt.schleswig-holstein.de/?27646
Language: German
(21) Climate Protection Programm of the Federal State of Sachsen / Klimaschutzprogramm des Freistaates
Sachsen. Sächsisches Staatsministerium für Umwelt und Landwirtschaft; Dresden 2001
Topic
Approach
(22) Frauenhofer Institut, Öko Audit
Source : http://www.ipsi.fraunhofer.de/oeko-audit/ablauf.html
Language: German
(23) Klimapolitik in Deutschland: Eine Problemanalyse aus Expertensicht Alexandra Böckem HWWA
DISCUSSION PAPER 91.
Source: www.hwwa.de/Projekte/Forsch_Schwerpunkte/FS/ Klimapolitik/PDFDokumente/Boeck_2000a.pdf
Language: German
(24) The German Advisory Council on the Environment. Environmental Report 2002 - Towards a New Leading
Role. Source: Source : http://www.umweltrat.de/english/eframe01.htm
Language: German / English
(25) Christoph Matschle, MdB, Überlegungen zur Zukunft sozialdemokratischer Umweltpolitik – von regulativer
Umweltpolitik zu einem kooperativen Management staatlicher Umweltpolitik. Rede vom 8.10.1999.
Source: http://www.matschie.de/service/reden.php
Language: German
(26) Edeltraud Günther. Aufgaben- und Organisationsstruktur der Umweltpolitik in der Bundesrepublik
Deutschland. Dresdner Beiträge zur Betriebswirtschaftslehre Nr. 40 / 2000. TU Dresden
Source: http://www.tu-dresden.de/wwbwlbu/forschung/download/uebersicht.htm
Language: German
(27) Interviews Dr. Sartorius UBA, Frau Hornemann UBA.
Table 3: Climate change risks/impacts (Germany)
Topic
Key organisations/institutions
involved in providing information
on risks/impacts on key sectors
Approach
NATIONAL LEVEL
BMBF, Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung / Federal Ministry of Education and Research
BMBF is the key ministry for funding/comissioning research, for example by estabilshing DEKLIM, the German
Climate Research Programm that is also working on risks and impacts (mission see mitigation)
BMU, Bundesministerium für Umwelt / Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear
Safety.
BMU is funding/comissioning research via its Federal Environmental Agency BUA, (mission see climate change)
WBGU, Wissenschaftlicher Beirat der Bundesregierung Globale Umweltveränderung / German Advisory Council
on Global Change (mission see climate change)
BUA, Bundesumweltamt / Federal Environmental Agency (mission see climate change)
Federal State Level:
Schleswig-Holstein State Ministry of the Interior, Coastal Defence Division
NLWK, Niedersächsisches Landesbetrieb für Wasserwirtschaft und Küstenschutz / Lower Saxony Water
Management and Coastal Defence Agency.
Research organisations:
DEKLIM, (mission see climate change)
PIK, (mission see climate change)
Topic
Approach
Research Projects:
COMRISK (7,8,9)
COMRISK is a multinational joint project of five states situated on the north sea. COMRISK aims at improved
coastal flood risk management through a transfer and evaluation of knowledge and methods as well as pilot studies.
Two German subprojects are part of COMRISK:
Schleswig-Holstein State Ministry of the Interior, Coastal Defence Division. Topic: Public perception of coastal
flood defence and participation in coastal flood defence planning in the North Sea Region
Lower Saxony Water Management and Coastal Defence Agency (NLWK). Topic: Risk assessment for the barrier
island Langeoog
Results will be compiled in a subproject report and presented at the COMRISK conference in April 2005
KRIM – “Climate Change and Preventive Risk and Coastal Protection Management on the German North Sea
Coast" (11)
Part of DEKLIM is the interdisciplinary KRIM joint project. It has the goal of providing orientation and action knowhow for the future task of society as a whole entailing "risk management in coastal protection under conditions of
uncertainty". The expectations of society with regard to future-oriented coastal protection indicate that it is
urgently necessary to make targeted and practice-oriented contributions to issues and fields in which this was not
or did not seem necessary before. These issues can be summarized in the central question of the joint project:
What demands are made on future coastal protection that is to be included in integrated coastal zone management
due to an accelerated rise in the sea level and greater frequency and intensity of extreme events and what social
interpretation patterns and decision-making procedures influence this process?
Subprojects of KRIM are: "Coastal Defence", "Ecology", "Political-administrative Processes of Control", "Regional
Economic Risk Analysis", "Public Responses to Global Climate Change", "Integrative Analysis and Decision Support
System"
The KRIM-Climate scenario for the year 2050:
Sea level: +55 cm
Average tidal rise: +25 cm
Wind (Dec/Jan/Feb): +7% (shifting from NW to N)
Topic
Approach
Temperature atmospheric: +2.8 °C
Precipitation: +10%
Anatol-storm surge: HHTHW +55 cm +10 cm +200 cm
KRIM runs till 2005 and has not published more detailed research results jet.
MERK - a micro-scale risk evaluation study for selected coastal lowlands along the German North Sea and Baltic
Sea coasts.
Forschungs- und Technologiezentrum Westküste, Universität Kiel. (10)
For several coastal cities a detailed risk potential analyses was carried out for categories like buildings, hotels, traffic
infrastructure and agriculture, each in relation to their location above sea level. For the city of Timmendorfer
Strand alone a risk potential of approximately. 1.5 billion EUR is predicted.
Schleswig Holstein expanses on about 3.730 km2 of land and approximately 1/ 4 of its surface is potentially
endangered by storm tides. 344.000 people are living and working in this area with a tangible asset of around 45
Mrd. EUR.
Best - Brandenburg Simulator of Environmental and Socio-economic Transformations, PIK Potsdam,
Brandenburgisches Agrar- und Umweltministerium. Details above. (12)
DIFU, Deutsches Institut für Urbanistik / German Institute for Urban Affairs. (13)
The next heat wave surely comes: How can local authorities avert impacts? Symposium to be held in April 2004 will
discuss impacts on citizens, wildlife and vegetation, measurements to prevent ‘heat islands’ in urbanized areas and
other opportunities for action.
Others:
Organisational level at which
information on risks/impacts on key
sectors is prepared
Münchner Rückversicherung (2-5)
German reinsurance company that has its own research group on geoscience and climate change forecast.
Within the risks/impacts topic we have a similar situation as within climate forecast. On a national level explicit risk
research is rare. Publicly available is WBGUs 1998 report on strategies for managing global environmental risks. (1)
Topic
Approach
MunichRe as the biggest reinsurance company is forcing the public discussion on risk awareness and insurance
regulations but has not much data easily available. (2-5)
Action orientated information on risks and impacts of climate change is mainly prepared on a regional level in
course of climate change research, rarely as explicit risk research like the MERK programme. Research
concentrates on flood risk in relation to climate change. Other sectors e.g. general impacts on nature conservation,
agriculture, buildings, etc. get less emphasis. (8-13)
You may say, that the local level reacts more on its own experiences of negative effects of climate change, rather
than on forecasts. The Symposium ‘The next heat wave surely comes’ held by the City of Stuttgart and the DIFU is
an example for such an experience based reaction. (14)
Sector
Sectors covered
Impacts/Risks
Note: The list of topics mentioned
reflects the diverse research
landscape, the structure follows your
proposal and is not an official list of
impact research.
Environmental Nature
conservation (12)
Forestry (5,12)
Water resources
(12)
Social
Historic
environment
(1,12)
Housing (1,7,12)
Increased heat stress in livestock and wildlife.
Some species will decline.
Steppe-vegetation will partly arise
Increased risk of forest fire
Damages by increased peak wind intensities
Water shortages
decreased regeneration of ground waters
Increased level of water pollution
Historic Landscapes will change their character
Steppe-vegetation will partly arise
High risk by floods
Damages by increased peak wind intensities
Increased electric cooling demand and reduced energy supply reliability
Topic
Approach
Economic
Health (1,13)
Increased incidence of death and serious illness in older age groups and
urban poor,
Extended range and activity of some pest and disease vectors
Nutrition (1)
Risk tolerance (1)
Agriculture (7,12)
Harbours
Falling harvests, prices will rise
Unpredictable reaction of people on future climate change events
Decreased agricultural and rangeland productivity in drought- and flood prone regions
Damages by increased peak wind intensities
Change of landscape character will harm tourism, especially in structurally
weak regions
Shift in tourist destinations
Low water levels on rivers as well as high water levels and floods by
extreme rains
High risks from floods
Building Stock
(7,11)
High risks trough floods as well in coastal zones as well as in river areas
Increased damage to building foundations caused by ground shrinkage
Infrastructure
(7,11)
Increased coastal erosion and damage to coastal buildings and
infrastructure
Financial sector
(2,14)
Increased pressure on government and private flood insurance systems and
disaster relief
Tourism (1,10)
Shipping (12)
A summary of the strengths and
weaknesses of the country’s
approach to identifying risks/impacts
in key sectors
The strengths and weakness of the Germans approach to identifying climate change impacts is strongly related to
strength and weaknesses of climate change forecasting. The strength of german climate impact research is its
regional, action orientated approach. It allows to focus on regional climate situations in mountain areas, lowlands,
coastal zones, along rivers etc. A too strong generalization is avoided and impacts can easily implemented to action
oriented measures.
Although there is quite a lot impact research on a regional level three main weaknesses can be identified:
its lack of nationwide statements and comparability;
Topic
Approach
the event oriented focus of impacts research concentrating on flood related impacts today; and
the rare publication of research results. Public awareness is lower as it should be/could be.
Any indication of future work
planned on identifying impacts/risks
DEKLIM (15) is a first step into a broader action oriented climate change and impact research. The BUA is
currently discussing how forecasting and impact research within the federal structure of Germany can be integrated
into a common structure. It is essential that impact research becomes comparable and can be integrated on a
national level. This is an step to develop a general awareness to get the political feedback to implement concepts
for adaptation policies. A paper will be published this year. (16)
Topic
Approach
Key documents
(1) German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU)
World in Transition: Strategies for Managing Global Environmental Risks. Springer, Berlin, 2000
Source: http://www.wbgu.de/wbgu_jg1998_engl.html
Language: German / English
(2) Wolfgang Kron. Versicherung von Hochwasserschäden. In: Heinz Patt (ed.) Hochwasserhandbuch. Springer
Berlin 2001.
Language: German
(3) Dr.-Ing.Wolfgang Kron, High water and Floods: Resist them or accept them? In: schaden spiegel 3/2003, a
publication of the Munich Reinsurance Company
Source: www.munichre.com
Language: English
(4) The economy of climate. In: TOPICS 2/2003, a publication of the Munich Reinsurance Company
Source: www.munichre.com
Language : English
(5) Windstorm loss potentials in Europe – accumulation aspects. In : Winter storms in Europe (II) Analysis of 1999
losses and potentials. A publication of the Munich Reinsurance Company
Source: www.munichre.com
Language : English
(6) Umweltbundesamt. Klimaschutz 2001 – Tatsachen Risiken, Handlungsmöglichkeiten.
Source: Umweltbundesamt.de
Language: German
(7) COMRISK
General information: www.comrisk.org
Language: English
(8) COMRISK Subproject 3
Schleswig-Holstein State Ministry of the Interior, Coastal Defence Division. Public perception of coastal flood
Topic
Approach
defence and participation in coastal flood defence planning
Source:www.comrisk.org/html/public_perception_and_particip.html
Language: English
(9) COMRISK Subproject 9
NLWK, Lower Saxony Water Management and Coastal Defence Agency, Risk assessment for the barrier island
Langeoog.
Source: http://www.comrisk.org/html/subprojects.html
language: English
(10) MERK
Geographisches Institut der Universität Kiel
Mikroskalige Evaluierung der Risiken in überflutungsgefährdeten Küstenniederungen – MERK
Source: http://www.geographie.uni-kiel.de/index.php
Language: German
(11) KRIM
University of Bremen, Faculty 2, Dept. Aquatic Ecology, Climate Change and Preventive Risk and Coastal
Protection Management on the German North Sea Coast (KRIM)
Source: http://www.krim.uni-bremen.de/englisch/indexenglisch.html
Language: English
(12) BEST - Brandenburg Simulator of Environmental and Socio-economic Transformations
PIK, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
www.pik-potsdam.de
(13) DIFU. Deutsches Institut für Urbanistik
www.difu.de
(14) Interview: Dr. Sartorius, Frau Hornemann UBA.
Wolfgang Kron, Münchner Rück
(15) DEKLIM
Table 4: Adaptation (Germany)
Topic
Approach
Key organisations/ institutions
involved in producing
information on adapting to
climate change
Federal Ministries:
BMU, Bundesministerium für Umwelt / Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear
Safety, (mission see climate change)
BMVEL, Bundesministerium für Verbraucherschutz, Ernährung und Landwirtschaft / Federal Ministry of Consumer
Protection, Food and Agriculture.
National Forestry Programme. In a wide dialog among all social groups the need for action in developing forest and
forestry was evaluated. As a foundation for future forestry adapting to climate change 182 recommendations for action
had been worked out
BMBF, Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung / Federal Ministry of Education and Research.
The research Project ‚Future Oriented Forestry’ shows possibilities and consequences of a conversion of monoculture
pine forests to mixed ones.
BMVBW, Bundesministerium für Verkehr, Bauen und Wohnen / Ministry of Transport, Building and Housing.
As the analyse of damages of recent floods verify, structural damages on buildings are avoidable by an adapted method
of building. As there is no binding regulation by law on flood protecting buildings, the Hochwasserschutzfibel shows the
different opportunities to reduce increased flood risks with climate change.
BMI, Bundesministeriums des Innern / Federal Ministry of the Interior.
The BMI is responsible for disaster control and is reorganising its institutions on new duties in course of climate change
based on experiences made in recent catastrophes like the 2002 Elbe-Flood.
WBGU, Wissenschaftlicher Beirat der Bundesregierung Globale Umweltveränderung / German Advisory Council on
Global Change. WBGU gave several recommendations to the federal government how to adapt to climate change.
Federal Institutions:
BfN, Bundesamt für Naturschutz / Federal Agency for Nature Conservation
The concept of combining biotopes became lately part of the Federal Nature Protection Act. In several projects the
Agency develops a conceptual basis for combining biotopes which partly relate to climate change.
BUA, Bundesumweltamt / Federal Environmental Agency (mission see climate change)
AKNZ, Akademie für Krisenmanagement, Notfallplanung und Zivilschutz
Research Institutions governmentally funded/ endorsed:
Dresden Flood Research Centre.
Integrated and governance-oriented flood risk management research in the transnational Elbe river basin. After the Elbe
flood 2002, which caused the highest flooding damage ever in Europe, most activities had to be put into rebuilding and
in economic and social support of people affected. The contribution of science mainly referred to collecting and
assessing data to describe the bygone event. Supposing that time after flooding is already time before next flooding a lot
of unanswered questions in terms of future flood risk management appear. These questions are primarily identified in
scientific disciplines which traditionally work in the field of water research. Considering the complex effects of the Elbe
flood on the society the necessity of comprehensive transdisciplinary approaches is evident. This means that natural and
social science need to be addressed within societal flood risk management. But applicable scientific approaches covering
the whole complexity of this issue are still missing. They have to integrate high level baseline research as well as applied
and governance-oriented research.
Acknowledging that this kind of research can-not be dealt with by individual institutes, the Dresden Flood Research
Centre was founded. It is considered to be a platform of integration between its members as well as between its
European partners. The Centre aims at the identification of the research demands for a flood risk analysis and
management with effective pre-flood, event and post-flood measures. The approach includes scientists with different
disciplinary expertise as well as representatives of science and environmental policy. The main object of the research
done by the Dresden Flood Research Center is the transnational Elbe river basin. At the same time the working
approach is as well targeted on the overall European dimension and will include the knowledge that can be derived
from other parts of Europe and the world.
IOER, Institut für Ökologische Raumentwicklung / Institute of Ecological and Regional Development.
The IOER carries out interdisciplinary research into the fundamental issues and national, European and international
implications of an ecologically-based approach to land use and management sciences. This involves looking at the
requirements for building and housing, regional, and town and country development from a variety of angles, while
being guided by ecological considerations. Of central importance are the initial conditions and development
perspectives, as well as the strategies, methods and tools needed for ecological spatial development. It is strongly
related to the Dresden Flood Research Centre.
Geographisches Institut der Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel / Geographic Institute ChristianAlbrechts-University Kiel.
The Institute combines climate research and risk management with a focus on coastal management.
PIK, Potsdam Institut für Klimafolgenforschung, / Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, (mission see climate
change)
DIFU, Deutsches Institut für Urbanistik / German Institute for Urban Affairs.
Research Institution funded by german cities and mainly dealing with urban planning. DIFU is just starting to get
involved in climate change adaptation on an urban level by discussing how to prevent the cause for ‘heat islands’
(Hitzeinseln) in urbanized areas to prevent related health problems.
Organisational level at which
information on climate change
adaptation is prepared .
What sectors does adaptation
information cover?
Adaptation policy is just upcoming mainly as a reaction on recent flood events and drought periods.
There is no clear definition what adaptation has to deal with. Event related information and guidances are prepared on
all federal levels with different intensity (16). Adaptation information on flood prevention and forestry is well developed
on all levels, while health related adaptation measures to prevent ‘heat islands’ (Hitzeinseln) in urbanized areas are just
discussed on a local level.
Sector
Adaptation Measure
Environmental Forestry
(1) Transform monoculture forests into mixed forests with a higher biodiversity
and persistence against phenomenon of climate change.
(2)Enabling forests to bind more water and produce more ground water.
Habitat
Networks
Flood prevention
Built
Environment
Agriculture
(3) The concept of habitat networks or combined biotops became lately part of
the Federal Nature Protection Act. At least 10 % of Germany should work as
combined biotopes. To establish this system criteria must be defined on a
national level.
Combined biotopes allow species to change their habitat and adopt to climate
change.
Along the former boarder of east and west Germany a connected biotope
emerged due to its isolation for the last 50 years. It needs to be protected
against future urbanisation.
(15) The ‘Informal Plan for the River Wesenitz’ gathered information from all
levels of research and administration to create a basis for local and
intercommunal action.
The plan shows areas with potentially increased drainage and related flood
areas. Decentral flood protection measures are indicated on a medium scale of
1:100.000. The plan has an informal character and only gives advice for
measurements for preventional flood protection from a holistic spatial point of
view. This is regarded as an essential contribution of spatial planning towards a
comprehensive management of river areas.
(9), (12) Restrain high tides by:
enhancing the ability of soil to drainage rain by reducing the use of land.
relocating dykes along rivers to create flooding areas.
appropriate land use in relation to the local situation, avoiding potential flood
areas or hillside locations Tallagen endangered by erosion.
controlling settlement development to minimize potential risks.:
indicating flooding areas for whole rivers in local plans with common standards
(5) Support adaptation of agriculture to climate change by:
choosing, cultivating and supporting new crops adapted to local phenomenon of
climate change.
establishing long term observation fields.
conducting basic research.
Social
Housing
(6) Adapt building stock to risks of flooding, support knowledge on appropriate
building techniques.
(7) Save energy and water in buildings, reduce heating and cooling costs due to
the expected pressure on water sources and energy supply due to climate
change.
Public Awareness
Disaster control
(14) Some federal states implemented a duty for cold water meters to give
incentives to save water.
(8) There is a need for a risk responsible citizen. Who is informed on global
environmental risks, is incorporated in critical decisions making and should
share decisions even if they may prove to be wrong
Further support of local communities and of local agendas to create a wide
social process on climate change awareness
(9) Develop new instruments of coordination, like deNIS (German Emergency
Provision Information System)
Extension of the Koordinierungsstelle für großflächige Gefährdungslagen
(Coordination Agency for Extensive Danger Situations)
(10) Extension of the AKNZ, Academy for Crisis Management, Emergency
Planning and Civil Defence to enhance its ability to create networks among
Science and practice.
Preparation of risk potential assessments.
NGO
(8) Empowerment of NGOs. Especially the right to bring a suit might integrate
ecological aspects into the current social debate.
Health
(8) Educate and advise people to modify their behaviour towards a change in
climate.
(13) Prevent the cause for ‘heat islands’ (Hitzeinseln) in urbanized areas
Economic
Is there any legislation or policy
in relation to the above sectors
which sets out things they must
do to adapt to climate change?
Compatibility with spatial
planning
A summary of the strengths and
weaknesses of the country’s
approach to adaptation
Any indication of future work
planned in relation to climate
change and adaptation measures.
Key documents used
Insurance
(8), (11) Economic incentives play a major role in avoiding future risks. By
relating insurance contributions to individual precautionary measures these
incentives can be implemented.
The climate change event Germany is suffering most of are the floods of recent years. Adaptation is strongly related to
this topic. There are various legislative initiatives mainly aiming on regional and local level of spatial/urban planning. For
details see task 5.
Adaptation information on floods is wide spread and highly compatible with spatial planning (see Task 5 for details)
Flood related adaptation policies are a strength of the German approach.
Germany lacks an overall idea/concept which fields of policy adaptation has to deal with, partly because there is no
specific national forecast on climate change and its impacts. While there is a national climate protection programme aiming
on mitigation, there is no national climate change adaptation programme.
There is a need for more structured research on climate change adaptation responses. (16)
The BUA is currently discussing how adaptation within the federal structure of Germany can be integrated into a
common structure. It is essential that adaptation becomes integrated field of policy on the national level. A paper will
be published this year. (16)
(1) NWP, Nationales Waldprogramm Deutschland / National Forest Programme for Germany – Manual for the second
phase Source: www.nwp-online.de
Language: German / English
(2) BMBF. Zukunftsorientierte Waldwirtschaft / Future Oriented Forestry
Source: http://www.ecomplaints.de/wald/wald.pdf
(3) BfN, Biotopverbünde / Combined Biotops.
Source: www.bfn.de/03/030503.htm
Language: German
(4) BfN, Grünes Band / Green Stripes.
Source: www.bfn.de/02/020201_gruenesband.html
Language: German
(5) Harald Gebhardt, Klimaveränderungen und Auswirkungen auf Ökosysteme. KLIWA Symposium 2000.
Source: http://www.kliwa.de/de/ergebnisse/media/vortrag20.pdf
Language: German
(6) Bundesministerium für Verkehr, Bau -und Wohnungswesen, Hochwasserschutzfibel - Planen und Bauen von
Gebäuden
in hochwassergefährdeten Gebieten.
Source: http://www.bmvbw.de/Information-.922.12291/.htm
Language: German
(7) Hessisches Ministerium für Wirtschaft, Verkehr und Landesentwicklung, Energie sparen, Heizkosten senken, CO2Ausstoß mindern. Ratgeber zur energetischen Gebäudemodernisierung.
Source: www.hessen.de/wirtschaft
Language: German
(8) German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU)
World in Transition: Strategies for Managing Global Environmental Risks. Springer, Berlin, 2000.
Source: http://www.wbgu.de/wbgu_jg1998_engl.html
Language: German / English
(9) 5 Punkte Programm der Bundesregierung: Arbeitsschritte zur Verbesserung des vorbeugenden
Hochwasserschutzes. (2002)
Source: http://www.bmvbw.de/Information-.922.12653/.htm
Language: German
(10) Akademie für Krisenmanagement, Notfallplanung und Zivilschutz, Neue Strategie zum Schutz der Bevölkerung in
Deutschland (2003)
Source: http://text.bmi.bund.de/downloadde/24609/Download.pdf
Language: German
(11) 7 Punkte Programm des IOER zum Hochwasserschutz im Einzugsbereich der Elbe.
Source: http://www.ioer.de/presse/pdf/pr190802a.pdf
Language: German
(12) DIW Wochenbericht 12/03, Marktkonforme Versicherungspflicht für Naturkatastrophen - Bausteine einer
Elementarschadenversicherung
Source: www.diw.de/deutsch/produkte/publikationen/wochenberichte/docs/03-12-1.html
Language: German
(13) DIFU, Die nächste Hitzewelle kommt bestimmt : Wie können Kommunen Schaden abwenden ?
Source: www.DIFU.de
Language: German
(14) Federal Laws on water meters.
http://www.enco.de/gesetz/kaltwasser.html
Language: German
(15)Der informelle Plan zum vorbeugenden Hochwasserschutz – ein Beispiel aus dem Flußeinzugsgebiet der Wesenitz /
Sachsen. In: FORUM GEOÖKOL.12 (3), 2001
Language: German
Balance between mitigation of
and adaptation to climate
(16) Interviews
Dr. Sartorius BUA, Frau Hornemann UBA.
In Germany there is a greater focus on climate change mitigation than adaptation. This imbalance is recognized and will
be balanced in the future.
Table 5: Overall conclusions (Germany)
Topic
National/regional funding
allocated to climate change
programmes
Approach
Preliminary data:
Climate research was founded by the federal governement in the years 1998-2000 with 84 Mill. EUR (neoclimatologie
50 Millionen EUR, paläoclimatologie 11 Millionen EUR, modelling 23 Millionen EUR).
Focus of country’s approach
In Germany there is a greater focus on climate change mitigation than adaptation. This imbalance is recognized and will
be balanced in the future.
Usefulness for and compatibility
with spatial planning.
How well integrated is the
approach to climate change
across scientists and policy
makers.
Brief conclusions on
positive/good and negative/poor
aspects
On the federal level there is a greater focus on basic research, while the federal state level puts a focus on climate
change forecasting / climate change impacts within action oriented research projects. A stronger integreation of these
wide spread projects will take place in the future.
Generally useful within projects
Not aufgearbeitet for wider public
A stronger contribution to mitigation seems necessary.
The UK approach to forecasting climate change draws on knowledge from scientists and presents information in an
understandable and readily available format. Similarly information on mitigation, impacts and adaptation is based on
sound scientific knowledge and presented and made readily available to policy makers and planners.