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MPDD/CSN/HLAPPD/APOA/2013
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27 February 2013
ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMISSION FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC
UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR EUROPE
OFFICE OF HIGH REPRESENTATIVE FOR LDCS, LLDCS AND SIDS
GOVERNMENT OF LAO PEOPLES DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC
ESCAP/OHRLLS/ECE/Government of Lao PDR Final Regional Review of the
Almaty Programme of Action for the Landlocked Developing Countries
5-7 March 2013
Vientiane, Lao People’s Democratic Republic
DRAFT DISCUSSION PAPER 4 (B)
COPING WITH CLIMATE CHANGE CONSEQUENCES
TECHNICAL SESSION 4
Addressing persistent, new and emerging issues facing the Asia-Pacific
LLDCs in the context of sustainable development and
post-2015 development agenda
____________________
The views expressed in this draft discussion paper do not necessarily reflect those of the United
Nations or any other landlocked developing country mentioned herein.
This draft discussion paper has been issued without formal editing.
CONTENTS
Page
1. INTRODUCTION………………………………………………………………………1
2. VULNERABILITY, CRITICAL ISSUES, RISKS, IMPACTS OF CLIMATE
CHANGE ………………………………………………………………………...……..2
(a) Natural Disasters
(b) Water Security
(c) Food Security
(d) Emerging Issues Including Nexus of Water-Energy-Food Security
3. BUILDING RESILIENCE……………………………………………………………..15
(a) Adaptation and Mitigation (where relevant) Measures
(b) National Plans and Programmes
(c) Mobilising Finances and Resources for Adaptation
4. CONCLUSION………………………………………………………………………...18
References………………………………………………………………………………….22
Annex 1. Country profiles on: Emerging Issues, CC Risks, Vulnerabilities, Adaptation,
Mitigation and Resilience in each of the LLDCs
Annex 2. Abbreviations, key terms and definitions
1: Introduction
The United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio +20) that took place in Rio de Janeiro,
Brazil, from 20-22 June 2012 agreed on a political outcome document “The Future We Want” (UN, 2012)
that has important implications for the work of the United Nations system, including in shaping the post2015 global development agenda. The outcome document has been endorsed by the General Assembly
through resolution 66/288 in September 2012 (UN, 2012a A/RES/66/288). In their resolve to take urgent
action to achieve sustainable development, the member States of the United Nations, among others, have
adopted ground-breaking guidelines on green economy policies in the context of sustainable development
and poverty eradication, established an intergovernmental process under the General Assembly to prepare
options on a strategy for sustainable development financing, took forward-looking decisions on a number of
thematic areas, including energy, food security and cities.
Rio+20 Outcome document “The Future We Want” of June 2012 (UN, 2012) has invited Member States,
including development partners, organizations of the United Nations system and other relevant
international, regional and subregional organizations, to speed up further the implementation of the specific
actions in the five priorities agreed upon in the Almaty Programme of Action (APoA) and those contained
in the declaration on the midterm review of the APoA, in a better coordinated manner, in particular for the
construction, maintenance and improvement of their transport, storage and other transit-related facilities,
including alternative routes, completion of missing links and improved communications and energy
infrastructure, so as to support the sustainable development of landlocked developing countries.
The international climate change adaptation report by the IPCC (WG2) focused specifically on coastal
systems and small islands but did not mention the situation for landlocked countries (IPCC, 2007).
However, landlocked countries also have specific vulnerability to the impacts of climate change, for
example, extreme temperatures, dry and wet mass movements (landslides, avalanches, glacier melt),
drought, flood, dust and storm and the lack of access to coastal waters. Moreover, severe effects of climate
change include magnification of land degradation, desertification, deforestation, wildfires and destruction of
the transport infrastructure (Diarra, 2012). There are additional vulnerabilities of mountainous regions to the
impacts of earthquakes and epidemics, which are not linked with climate change.
Geographical isolation of LLDCs can exacerbate these impacts. For example, vulnerabilities of landlocked
countries result in interruptions of supply routes and transport systems, which add barriers to urban and
rural connectivity of transit transport in infrastructure and facilitation of trade during extreme climate events
and their consequences. Thus, the recent global triple fuel-food-financial crisis of 2008, open up other
challenges, which are threatening the ability of LLDCs to achieve MDGs, such as in tackling the
commodity price volatility and rising food and energy prices.
Furthermore, under long-term climate change there may be a need for the landlocked countries to address
the issue of migration from coastal regions which will lose land due to the impacts of sea level rise. At the
same time LLDCs are protected from sea level rise. Therefore, although landlocked countries are not
affected by the coastal impacts of climate change, there is additional vulnerability which has been
previously overlooked.
So, sustainable development in LLDCs is challenged by lack of territorial access to the sea, remoteness
from world markets, inadequate transport infrastructure and prohibitive transit costs and risks (Diarra,
2012), which continue to impose serious constraints on export earnings, competitiveness of export products,
private capital inflow, and domestic resource mobilization.
The report on Green Growth, Resources and Resilience by ESCAP, UNEP and ADB (2011), describes an
evolving policy landscape characterised by a changing economic reality, rising demand for resources,
increasingly apparent impacts of climate change, and increased risk and uncertainty. This inability to
1 predict future changes in climate variables accurately adds to the difficulty for initiating adaptation efforts
(UNESCAP, 2011).
The uncertainty means that it is advisable for countries to pursue a “no-regrets” approach to climate change,
with the focus on development and poverty reduction, sound science and forecasting, eco-system based
approaches and sharing risks through insurance schemes (UNESCAP, ADB, UNEP, 2011). Furthermore,
climate projections of temperature and rainfall patterns depend on existing and future emissions of
greenhouse gases, highlighting the importance of international collaboration to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions. Thus, the various projections, forecasts and scenarios on climate change depend on socioeconomic development pathways, which are also affected by different urbanization rates, reliant upon
greater urban economic diversification and job creation, thus, challenges of addressing managing of
urbanization1 and whether there is a shift towards ‘green growth’. To develop better frameworks for climate
change adaptation and mitigation, build up resilience and promote collaborations in the regional and
international levels, it is vital to raise great awareness and understanding of these critical issues and their
interactions.
2. Vulnerabilities, Critical Issues, Risks, Impacts of Climate Change
Climate Change refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of
human activity. Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with,
adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Thus, vulnerability is a
function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed,
the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of that system (IPCC, 2007). Climate change brings the growing risk
of impacts on vulnerable natural and human systems. This chapter highlights key critical issues that
landlocked developing countries are facing due to anthropogenic climatic change, namely: natural disasters
(e.g. drought, flood, extreme temperature, mountain ecosystems and storm), water security issues , such as
water availability and sanitation, food security issues due to the stress on land resources and agriculture, and
changes in energy support systems, especially issues of energy services, due to the potential breakdown of
the access to electricity, technologies, all building up cumulative risks and heavy socio-economic
consequences and development impacts.
Based on different climatic/geographical zones of countries, IPCC, Working Group 2 (IPCC, 2007, AR4)
group them based on their vulnerabilities to different hydro-meteorological events, such as LLDCs in
Central Asia (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) are
mostly challenges by desertification and sandstorm; Bhutan, Nepal and Afghanistan have greater impacts
from a common phenomena of melting glaciers of the Himalayan Water Towers, with Glacier Lakes
Outburst Floods (GLOF), European countries (Republic of Moldova and the Former Yugoslav Republic of
Macedonia) are being affected by extreme temperatures and events that other LLDCs, Mongolia needs
greater water accessibility, while Lao PDR with a tropical and sub-tropical climate, expect rain and
droughts and at the same time is protected from cyclones, possibly by the highlands of Vietnam (ref
information from Mekong Commission). TBP made an attempt to analyze LLDCs based on this grouping.
(a) Natural Disasters, caused by climate change
The more recent Special Report of the IPCC on disaster risk and climate adaptation (IPCC, 2012) ties action
on climate change to the management of disaster risk, pointing to increased disaster risk as more vulnerable
1
See "The State of Asian Cities", ESCAP, UN-HABITAT, 2011-12, available at
http://www.unescap.org/esd/apuf-5/documents/SACR.pdf
2 people and assets are exposed to weather extremes, even without climate change. It concludes that climate
extremes will play an increasingly significant role in disaster impacts and highlights the need to improve
existing risk management measures. Table 1 summarises the main climate related vulnerability of LLDCs,
like floods, droughts, storms, as well as exposures to extremes of temperatures and cold/heat waves, wet
and dry mass movements. Although earthquakes and epidemics are not climate related, their impacts are
still shown in the table, as soon as LLDC are very vulnerable to these events.
Drought: The data from EM-DATA (2012) shows that drought caused enormous losses in the landlocked
developing countries, namely in Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Lao PDR, Republic of Moldova,
Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Tajikistan, from 1983 till 2012. Uzbekistan is mainly desert,
with an arid continental climate, and climate change is likely to intensify the desertification process leading
to decreased water resources and biodiversity (UNFCCC, 2008b). The Former Yugoslav Republic of
Macedonia has suffered great economic losses: as much as 1 billion US dollars due to drought in the past 30
years. The damage in the Republic of Moldova was 406 million US dollars. Drought has severely affected
the normal life of more than 2 million people in Kyrgyzstan and over 3 million people in Tajikistan.
Afghanistan is particularly vulnerable to the severe impacts of drought, since it is a mountainous, dry
country with a semi-arid and arid climate (DFID, 2007). It was estimated that in the past 30 years (EMDATA, 2012), drought occurred four times, totally affecting over 6 million people and killing 37 people
with an economic loss of 142.05 million US dollars. Over the last 30 years, drought occurred in Armenia
once, causing economic losses of 100 million US dollars. Lao PDR suffered from drought four times (EMDATA, 2012).
Extreme temperature: As it can be seen from Tables 1 and 2, over the past 30 years (EM-DATA, 2012),
Afghanistan, Mongolia, Nepal and Tajikistan have suffered great economic losses due to extreme
temperatures. Tajikistan has lost about 840 million US dollars and 2 million people were affected. Also,
extreme temperature has caused the death of over 5,500 people in the Republic of Moldova. Cold wave
occurred twice in Kazakhstan, affecting over 600 hundred people and killing 3 people, while extreme heat
wave in the west of the country has impacted yield production, causing food price fluctuations.
Flood: Mountain ecosystems in the Eastern Himalayas have been recognised as particularly vulnerable to
climate change impacts, due to the variation in altitudes (ADB, 2012). The melting of glaciers in the
Himalayas leads to the risk of glacier lake outburst flooding (IPCC, 2007). Rivers and watersheds of Nepal
are also at risk of landslides, soil erosion, drought, and more intense rainfall in the monsoon season (ADB,
2012). Bhutan is also a mountainous country which is highly vulnerable to the effects of melting glaciers. The
country’s NAPA (National Adaptation Programme of Action) identified floods and landslides specifically
(UNFCCC, 2006). Future threats in Uzbekistan also include the melting of the glaciers and snow reserves,
and drying up of the Aral Sea (UNECE, 2010). Risks of climate change in Kyrgyzstan include the threats of
melting glaciers, changing rainfall cycles and even changing to the reproductive cycles of livestock (World
Bank, 2012).
Flood has caused tremendous economic losses (EM-DATA, 2012) to Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan,
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Lao PDR, Republic of Moldova, Nepal, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. Among
them, Nepal suffered the most severe economic loss of more than 765 million US dollars
Meanwhile, more than 734,000 people have been affected and almost 1100 people have been killed during the
catastrophic flood disasters in Nepal. Moreover, Afghanistan and Tajikistan have lost 260 million US dollars
and 300 million US dollars respectively due to flood disasters in the past 30 years. Over 1,300 people in
Tajikistan have been killed due to flood. Flood hit Armenia twice, leading to economic loss of 8.12 million
US dollars (EM-DTA, 2012). Flood happened twice in Kazakhstan and affected more than 6000 people with
an economic loss of 1.5 million US dollars. In Lao PDR, flooding occurred five times during the last 30 years,
affecting 1,295,000 people and causing economic losses of 1 million US dollars.
3 Flood
Drought
Storm
Earthquake 
Subregion
and country
Epidemic
*
Table 1. Landlocked Countries Vulnerable to Extreme Events
Extremes:
Temperature,
cold/ heat
wave, winter
conditions
Mass
movem
ents
wet/
dry
X
X
Wildfire
Central Asia
Armenia
X
X
Azerbaijan
X
X
Kazakhstan
X
Kyrgyzstan
X
X
Tajikistan
X
X
Turkmenistan
X
Uzbekistan
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
East Asia
Mongolia
X
Afghanistan
X
Bhutan
X
Nepal
X
X
X
X
X
South Asia
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Southeast Asia
Lao PDR
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Europe
Moldova
Yugoslavia
X
X
X
X
X
X
Note: Disasters data is taken from EM-DATA lists and represent the main natural disasters by numbers of people
affected, killed, and the costs of economic damage for the period 1900–2008. The “X” indicates that the country is
vulnerable to the indicated climate event.
Source: EM-DATA, 2009

* Note: LLDCs are also suffering from earthquakes and epidemics, although they are not climate related
4 Table 2. Impacts of Selected Natural Disasters in Landlocked Developing Countries 1983 to 2012
Earthquake
Drought
Extreme temperature
Flood
Storm
(seismic activity)
LLDC
No.
Kille
d
No.
Affected
Damage
(000
US$)
No.
Kille
d
No.
Affecte
d
Damag
e (000
US$)
No.
Kille
d
No.
Affected
Damag
e (000
US$)
No.
Kille
d
No.
Affected
Damag
e (000
US$)
No.
Kille
d
No.
Affected
Damage
(000
US$)
Afghanistan
37
6,510,00
0
142,050
8,75
9
496,08
5
28,060
572
200,200
10
202
161,620
260,00
0
299
22,656
5,000
Armenia
-2
297,000
100,000
-
15,000
33,333
-
-
-
4
7,144
8,120
-
-
-
Azerbaijan
-
-
100,000
33
728,02
4
15,000
5
-
-
16
81,000
29,000
-
-
-
Bhutan
-
-
-
12
20,028
-
-
-
-
22
600
-
29
65,000
-
Kazakhstan
-
-
-
3
36,626
-
3
600,012
-
-
6,168
1,500
112
-
3,000
Kyrgyzstan
-
2,000,00
0
-
74
1,197
-
11
-
-
1
7,728
2,400
4
9,075
-
Lao PDR
-
750,000
1,000
-
-
-
-
-
-
29
1,295,00
0
1,000
8
38,435
302,301
Moldova
2
210,394
406,000
-
-
-
5,52
3
-
-
10
4,457
54,832
-
2,600,00
0
31,600
-
-
1,000,00
0
20
1,636
-
38
-
-
-
1,000
-
-
-
-
-
450,000
-
-
-
-
5
769,113
62,000
5
-
-
14
1,265,00
0
90,000
Macedonia3
Mongolia
2
Note: “–” indicates no data available Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia 3
5 Nepal
-
503,000
-
716
469,25
0
60,000
168
25,200
123
1,097
734,159
765,80
0
27
184
3,600
Tajikistan
-
3,800,00
0
57,000
19
40,531
23,500
1
2,000,00
0
840,00
0
1,367
67,139
300,00
0
-
830
234
Turkmenistan
-
-
-
11
-
-
-
-
-
-
420
99,870
-
-
-
Uzbekistan
-
600,000
50,000
22
50,086
-
-
-
-
-
1,500
-
-
-
-
Source: EM-DATA 2012
Flood also happened six times in Afghanistan, totally affecting more than 160,000 people and causing an economic loss of 260 million US dollars (EMDATA, 2012). Though rainfall may increase in the short-term, the trend by 2090’s shows decreased rainfall under climate changes, meaning that drought
will become the norm rather than a cyclical occurrence (DFID, 2007).
Storm: When it comes to economic damage, Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Lao PDR, Republic of Moldova, Mongolia, Nepal and Tajikistan are especially
vulnerable to storm disasters. Economic consequences of the catastrophic storms in Lao PDR amounted to over 302 million US dollars. Furthermore,
storms in Mongolia caused losses of 90 million US dollars and also affected more than 1 million people. A severe storm took place once in Kazakhstan
and killed 112 people with an economic loss of 3 million US dollars. In Lao PDR storms also occurred twice with an economic loss of 302.301 million
US dollars (EM-DATA, 2012). Under the impacts of climate change in the past 50 years, strong wind carried big amount of dust and sand over a long
distance due to the increasing land degradation and desertification. Dust and sand storms may originate in the Russian Federation and in Kazakhstan in
the north and west, in the west of the PR China and Mongolia with impacts that felt in North America
(http://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/pcdsna.pdf).
Earthquake, as a seismic activity that is not related to climate change, is making a huge economic impact in LLDCs. Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan,
Nepal, and Tajikistan are especially vulnerable to earthquakes. For example, economic loss from catastrophic earthquake in Nepal from 1983 till 2012 was
as high as 60 million US dollars. Meanwhile, earthquake in Azerbaijan happened four times, affected more than 700,000 people with an economic loss of
15 million US dollars. In the past 30 years, earthquake hit Kazakhstan once. Earthquake happened once in Afghanistan affected 15,000 people and causing
economic loss of over 33 million US dollars (EM-DATA).
Table 3 is also compiled from EM-DATA (2012), the OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, and lists projected changes in the long-term mean
temperature and precipitation under various climate change scenarios. Analyses of the impacts of climate change in Table 3 on agriculture were carried
out by using the United Kingdom Meteorological Office Hadley Centre’s Coupled Model, Version 3 (HadCM3) with the A2a scenario from the IPCC’s
Third Assessment Report (IPCC 2001).
6 Other climate models used were the National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Community Climate System
Model version 3.0 (NCAR-CCSM3), and the Australian Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research
Organization Climate Change Model (CSIRO-Mk3.0 A2), which both followed A2 scenarios from IPCC’s
Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC 2007a). Among them, the A2 scenario is generally regarded as a worst-case
scenario lacking mitigation. However, recent rates of emissions have already exceeded the A2 emission
assumptions. Thus, A2 may actually underestimate the future under climate change without mitigation.
Table 3. Projected change in long-term mean temperature and
Precipitation under climate change, various scenarios
Subregion,
LLDC
Precipitation (mm/yr)
Temperature (°C)
Current
levels
Current
levels
2050 Projections
Hadley
A2a
Scenario
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Kazakhstan
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Mongolia
Afghanistan
Bhutan
Nepal
392.1
366.3
207.2
458.4
135.8
163.3
431.2
398
251.6
589.9
169.1
204.2
164
204.8
259.9
1,139.70
1,171.30
327.3
1,632.20
1,618.60
NCAR A2
Scenario
Central Asia
360.7
401
361.3
365.2
219.6
221.9
451.5
462.9
139.3
153.7
169.9
173.8
East Asia
172.7
209.5
South Asia
258.8
316.6
1,140.40
1,197.60
1,127.60
1,211.10
Southeast Asia
1,577.20
1,563.90
2050 Projections
Hadley
A2a
Scenario
CSIRO A2
Scenario
NCAR A2
Scenario
7.1
12.5
5.9
2.8
15.3
12.5
9.6
15.7
9.1
5.2
17.8
15.1
8.3
13.9
7.8
5
17
14.4
9.8
14.8
8.5
5.8
17.6
14.9
- 0.1
2.7
1.7
2.9
11.8
8.6
14.5
14.3
12.1
16.1
13.9
10.2
16.5
14.6
10.6
16.7
CSIRO A2
Scenario
Lao PDR
1,527.90
1,972.70
23.1
24.7
24.4
24.6
Note: mm/yr = millimeter per year, CSIRO = Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, NCAR =
National Center for Atmospheric Research. Current levels here pertain to the average of 1950–2000 levels. Hadley: United
Kingdom Meteorological Office Hadley Centre. These are calculated based on Hijmans et al., 2005.
Both the HadCM3 A2a climate change scenario and the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment models show that
temperatures in all the landlocked developing countries are expected to increase. As per the HadCM3 A2a
climate change scenario, temperature increases are expected to be comparatively larger in Azerbaijan,
Kazakhstan and Bhutan. Nepal and Lao PDR are predicted to warm the least, averaging 1.6°C by 2050. There
is some confidence concerning temperature changes direction in the tropics as a result of climate change.
However, there appears far greater uncertainty about precipitation changes (Kurukulasuriya and Ajwad 2007;
Mendelsohn and Williams 2004).
Table 3 also indicates changes in precipitation for HadCM3 A2a scenario compared with the historical mean.
As per the data in the Table 3, all the countries are projected to experience increased precipitation of
approximately 10% above the historical mean in 2050. However, the IPCC’s fourth assessment models
7 obviously show an increase in annual precipitation in Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Bhutan and Lao
PDR. The exceptions are Armenia, Azerbaijan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan and Nepal, where a decrease in
precipitation is predicted. In this case, the projected decrease may mean an increase in the frequency of dry
spring, summer and autumn seasons. Moreover, the increase in precipitation does not necessarily mean that
these areas will have fewer drought events. Precipitation mostly tends to be heavier during wet periods,
causing flood and making dry seasons continue.
(b) Water Security
UN Water has shown that water is the main medium through which climate change impacts the earth’s
ecosystem. Climate change is likely to intensify the water cycle, and the increased precipitation intensity and
variability are projected to increase the risks of extreme events such as flooding and drought in many areas
(IPCC, 2008). UN Water has shown that currently 1.6 billion people live in countries or regions with absolute
water scarcity. By 2025 two-thirds of the world population could be living under water stressed conditions
(UN Water, 2012).
More than one-sixth of the world population relies on glaciers and snow packs for their water supply (Barnett
et al, 2005). Glaciers, ice, and snow provide drinking water to millions of people, including LLDCs in Central
and South Asia, and are also under threat from climate change. Impacts are region-specific; melting glaciers
are expected to increase the severity of glacial melt-related floods, cause slope destabilisation and decrease
river flows which threatens the availability of fresh water in the region.
According to the IPCC, temperate and tropical Asia are likely to receive increased rainfall in the summer
monsoon that will exacerbate flooding, while summer precipitation is likely to decrease in arid and semi-arid
regions of West and Central Asia, leading to an acute shortage of water resources (IPCC, 2007), which is goes
in parallel with an increase in frequency of very dry spring, summer and autumns (IPCC, 2001). In dry arid
and semi-arid areas there is likely to be an acute shortage of water resources and expansion of deserts
associated with significant increases in surface air temperature and increased evapo-transpiration (IPCC,
2007).
Overall, climate change has the potential to exacerbate water stress in some areas but ameliorate it in others.
Many least developed countries are already close to or exceeding the limits of water resources, while demand
is increasing. Several countries in the Asia Pacific region suffer from severe over-abstraction for agricultural
purposes, for example in Uzbekistan where freshwater withdrawal is 118% of the total actual renewable water
resources (Aquastat, 2000).
Furthermore, water quality is also a challenge, with serious environmental, social and economic costs. All the
selected landlocked developing countries except Lao PDR and Afghanistan have the same problem of poor
water quality and low water endowment, as prevalence is high with 9 countries affected. Another issue is that
climate change has impacts on water resources for agriculture which particularly affects the poorest people.
Based on the ‘water insecurity framework’, ESCAP has identified water hotspots to measure and examine the
indicators of water security from the environmental, economic and social perspective, and capacities of
countries to achieve expected development outcomes sustainably (UNESCAP, 2010). The water hotspots
shown in Table 4 show whether countries’ capacities to manage water resources for social-economic progress
are improving or declining, and in turn whether social-economic progress has provided countries means to
confront water scarcity and water-induced conflicts and disasters.
In this framework, water security is assessed according to ten indicators of water security, access to water and
sanitation, water quality, and water-related disasters. Information in Table 4 shows, for example, that Lao
PDR, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Mongolia and Nepal are faced with most urgent sustainable
challenges in relation to water. Lao PDR and Afghanistan both suffer from the problem of poor access to
8 drinking water. In addition to that, Lao PDR, Afghanistan, Mongolia and Nepal are confronted with the
severe problem of poor access to sanitation.
Moreover, 7 of the countries are classified as drought prone. Uzbekistan and Afghanistan have the threats of
increasing water scarcity. As a result of coming anthropogenic climate change, water resources in the
northern plains of Central Asian region in the first half of the XXI century will decrease from 6% to 10% by
2030, and from 4% to 8% by 2050. Thus, for its size the Aral Sea, shared by Central Asian LLDCs was
considered the fourth largest lake. At the moment, the drying Aral Sea has retreated for 100 km from its
previous coastline near the city Muynak in Uzbekistan, and the distance from the town of Aralsk in
Kazakhstan to the shores of the Small Aral Sea is now about 50 km. The number of fish species living there
dropped from 32 to 6 as the result of increasing salinity, loss of spawning and foraging area. If in 1960 fish
catches reached 40 thousand tons, then by the mid-1980s local commercial fishing simply ceased to exist and
more than 60 thousand related jobs were lost.
The urban water resource in Mongolia is also vulnerable to climate change. The consequences of effects are
reduced snow cover, and increasing frequency of floods and droughts. There are challenges for the country in
terms of reducing the climate change burden in water supply, human health and aquatic ecosystems.
Table 4. Water hotspots of selected landlocked developing countries
LLDCs
1
2
Uzbekistan
X
X
Afghanistan
X
3
4
5
X
Lao PDR
6
X
X
7
X
8
X
X
X
9
X
Total
6
5
X
X
X
Mongolia
X
X
X
3
Nepal
X
X
X
3
Kyrgyzstan
X
X
2
Tajikistan
X
X
2
Turkmenistan
X
X
2
Azerbaijan
X
1
Bhutan
X
1
2
1
0
9
1
1
6
X
3
Kazakhstan
Prevalence (countries affected)
X
10
X
5
3
2
4
Note: Legend: 1. Increasing water scarcity threat; 2. High water utilization; 3. Deteriorating water quality; 4. Poor
water quality and low water endowment; 5. Flood-prone countries; 6. Cyclone-prone countries; 7. Drought-prone
countries; 8. Elevated ecosystem/Climate change risk; 9. Poor access to drinking water; 10. Poor access to sanitation
Source: UNESCAP, 2010
Another serious impact of flooding is upon human health, caused by threatening water supplies and increasing
risk of the spead of diarrheal and vector-borne diseases. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates
9 that approximately 88% of all diarrhoea cases are attributable to lack of adequate water and sanitation. Thus,
access to safe drinking water and sanitation has direct impacts on human health. As monitoring of water
quality is still at its infancy, observing health outcomes can shed light on the capacity to assure water quality.
Table 5. Ranking Access to Water and Sanitation in Selected LLDCs
LLDCs
Water
access
Sanitation
access
Water access
rank
Sanitation
access rank
Sum
(wat+san)
Aggregate
Rank
Armenia
96%
90%
1
1
2
1
Bhutan
92%
65%
1
3
4
2
Nepal
88%
31%
2
5
7
4
Mongolia
76%
50%
3
4
7
4
Lao People's
Democratic Republic
57%
53%
4
4
8
4
Afghanistan
48%
37%
5
5
10
5
Source: Asia Water Development Outlook, 2013, APWF, ADB, ESCAP, etc
For example, with respect to age-standardized DALYs per 100,000 caused by diarrhoeal incidents,
Afghanistan is the lowest ranking in selected LLD countries, but, Bhutan, and Tajikistan also have alarmingly
high rates as shown in Tables 5, 6. The highest ranking countries are developed countries of Asia-Pacific and
Europe. Poor health attributed to water and sanitation does not only hinder achievements in other MDGs, but
it also saps the productivity and socio-economic prospects of all household members, who have to spend days
away from work or drop out of school.
Table 6. Ranking on Water, Sanitation, Diarrhoea in Selected LLDCs
Country
Subregion
Water
access
Sanitation DALYs
access
diarrhoea
(2004)
Bhutan
SSWA
92%
65%
Tajikistan
CCA
70%
Nepal
SSWA
Lao PDR
Afghanistan
HWSI
w/o
GDP
Rank
1,399
7
2
94%
1,944
9
3
88%
31%
1,345
10
3
SEA
57%
53%
1,078
11
4
SSWA
48%
37%
5,289
15
5
Source: Asia Water Development Outlook, 2013, APWF, ADB, ESCAP, etc
10 (c) Food security
Many landlocked developing countries are sensitive to climate change and extreme weather events due to
severe water stress, fast speed of land degradation, high economic reliance on agriculture and etc. Table 7
presents historic annual mean climate data, indicators of agriculture dependency and poverty situation in the
selected landlocked developing countries.
Agriculture employment is accounted for more than 65% of the total employment in Afghanistan, Bhutan,
Nepal ( Table 7 shows Nepal with a highest rural population density of 659 people per square kilometre of the
arable land) and Lao PDR in 2004, which means that agriculture was the principal source of livelihood for
most of the population and these countries were extraordinary vulnerable to climate change influence on
agriculture. Among them, the number was as high as 93.6% and 93% for Bhutan and Nepal, separately.
Similarly, 60% of rural residents of Centra Asia are employed to varying degrees in the agricultural sector.
The main part of the region’s population (from 43% in Kazakhstan to 75% in Tajikistan) lives in rural areas,
and their economic well-being depends on the efficiency of agriculture. As can be seen from the Table 7, rural
population density was extremely high in Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Nepal and Lao PDR in 2002.
The importance of agriculture to GDP was declining across these countries except Turkmenistan. Armenia
made the most significant strides in this category, reducing the importance of agriculture to GDP from 42% in
1995 to 20% in 2006. Finally, the proportion of undernourished in the total population was falling since 1995,
with the exception of Uzbekistan. Whereas food security was improving in most of the landlocked developing
countries, nearly 34% of the population of Tajikistan was undernourished.
Changes to weather patterns and water resources are expected to affect agriculture and food security. In fact,
food security is closely linked to the issue of water security in many least developed countries, and seventy
percent of all freshwater is used to produce food globally. For example, 90% of water is used for agricultural
purposes in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan (Aquastat, 2012). Thus, agricultural productivity is sensitive to changes
in the nature and characteristics of hydrological regimes, as well as temperature increase (IPCC, 2007), so
farmers may have to adapt by changing crops. Increase temperatures also raise crop water demand. Many
aquifers in Asia have already been depleted by high withdrawal and low recharge rates. At the same time,
agricultural systems are also likely to be affected by extreme weather events, changes in pests and diseases,
and the impacts of desertification in some areas.
Along with heat waves and temperatures rise, projected a decrease in precipitation, there is likely to be a
shortage of water, food shortages or increased food prices as agricultural productivity falters, and an increased
incidence of landslides, mudflows, and floods in Armenia (UNDP, 2010).
Climate change is likely to threaten food security, making it more difficult to increase productivity to meet
growing demand. For example, Nepal is already vulnerable to food insecurity and food price volatility, and
climate change is likely to worsen this threat (Oxfam, 2011). Another example is Bhutan’s key sectors, which
are affected by the adverse effects of climate change, namely include infrastructure, agriculture, forestry,
water resources, energy and health. The vast majority of Bhutan’s population are subsistence farmers, and
will be directly affected by temperature changes and unpredictable monsoon patterns. Infrastructure will also
suffer increased damage from landslides and flash floods. Bhutan’s economy is highly dependent on
hydropower, which contributes to over 12 per cent of the country’s GDP.
A significant portion of economic activities has always been based on natural resources such as pasture,
animal husbandry, arable land and water resource. Mongolia would face specific concerns such as melting
of permafrost area, desertification, drought and etc. In addition, climate change would seriously affect
ecosystem, natural grassland, arable farming, pasture animal husbandry and soil quality. Almost 80% of the
11 territory of Central Asia is used for grazing sheep, goats, camels and horses. The area of hayfields and
pastures covers 220 million hectares. The total agricultural land area in Central Asia is 300 million hectares arable land covers more than 40 million hectares including about 10 million hectares of irrigated land.
Agriculture distribution: in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan cereal crops dominate in the structure of crops, in
other republics there is domination of technical crops, mainly cotton. Land degradation leads to a significant
economic damage in all areas of agriculture related to land use. According to the III National Report of the
Republic of Kazakhstan on the implementation of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification, the total
annual economic losses in the country, resulting from direct and indirect effects of land degradation are
estimated at $ 6.2 billion.
Table 7. Indicators of Climate Change Sensitivity in the Agriculture Sector in selected LLDCs
Climate
Variables (1961–
1990 average)
Country
Precipitation
(mm)
Temperature
(°C)
Rural
population
density
(people
per km2 of
arable
land),
2002
Irrigated
land (%
of cropland),
20032005
Agriculture
(% of GDP)
199
5
2006
Agricultural
Employ
-ment
(% of
total
employment),
2004
Dietary
Energy
Consumption
(kcal/ person/
day)
Proportion
of Undernourished in
Total
Population
1995
1997
1995
1997
2003
2005
34
21
27
12
–
–
42
34
9
6
5
14
2003
2005
Central Asia
2,31
0
2,53
0
3,11
0
2,07
0
2,78
0
2,44
0
Armenia
505
6.4
202
51.2
42
20
10.9
2,080
Azerbaijan
437
12.2
220
69.1
27
7
25.1
2,180
Kazakhstan
252
6
30
15.7
13
6
16.1
3,250
Tajikistan
494
3
488
68.2
38
25
31.2
1,940
Turkmenistan
158
15.2
142
89.2
17
20
31.9
2,560
Uzbekistan
193
12.5
357
87.4
32
26
25
2,710
22
21.5
1,960
2,19
0
40
29
East Asia
Mongolia
228
–0.5
88
7
41
South Asia
Afghanistan
312
12.9
273
33.8
–
36
65.7
–
–
–
–
Bhutan
1,833
9.4
–
–
–
–
93.6
–
–
–
Nepal
1,432
12.7
659
47
42
34
93
2,180
–
2,43
0
24
15
Southeast Asia
2,30
26
19
0
Note: °C = degrees Celsius, GDP = gross domestic product, kcal = kilocalories, km2 = square kilometer, mm =
millimeter. Note: “–” indicates no data available.
Source: Mitchell et al. , 2004, Mitchell and Jones , 2005; rural population density data are from World Bank , 2005;
agricultural GDP data are from World Bank, 2008; agricultural employment and dietary data are from FAO, 2009.
Lao PDR
1,764
23.2
480
17.2
12 56
42
75.8
2,090
Central Asia is also likely to suffer from water stress because earlier snow-melt will mean less water available
for irrigation in the summer months (Siegfried et al, 2011), particularly impacting on Fergana Valley of
Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Over 90% of water is used for agricultural purposes in Uzbekistan
and Tajikistan (Aquastat, 2012). Many aquifers around the world have already been depleted by high
withdrawal and low recharge rates and this is exacerbated by population growth. Uzbekistan uses
approximately 90 percent of surface water for irrigation in agriculture, and lack of water resources and land
degradation are currently threatening the productivity of this sector. Uzbekistan already suffers from water
scarcity issues. Reduction in productivity due to climate change could also threaten the food security of the
country. High soil salinity is also an issue in Uzbekistan which could worsen due to climate change.
The agricultural sector in Macedonia has particular vulnerability, particularly the alpine and sub-alpine
regions. Measures to address decreasing agricultural yields include soil and water conservation, efficient
irrigation, new breeds and new agricultural practices (UNDP, 2008).
Addressing the impacts of water scarcity on agriculture may include adaptation policies and measures such as
integrated supply and demand management of water resources, water storage infrastructure (surface water and
groundwater), watershed development, rainwater harvesting, water conservation and community initiatives to
integrate land and water management (UN Water, 2010). For instance, farmers can improve management of
water including efficient and effective use of irrigation water. Drought-resistant seed varieties or crop
switching will also reduce the amount of water required by crops.
(d) Emerging Issues Including Nexus of Water-Energy-Food Security
The World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos in 2008 identified the water–energy–food security nexus as one
of the greatest challenges for the global economy and sustainable development in the decades ahead. Water,
energy and food security are intricately inter-linked and inter-dependent and therefore must be addressed in
tandem. Water is essential for both food and energy production, while biofuel has increased pressure on food
resources. Rapidly increasing populations and economic growth trajectories are expected to cause significant
increases in global demand for food, water and energy resources. By 2030, the world’s population and
economic growth are expected to lead to a 40 percent increase in demand for water and energy, and a 50
percent increase in food demand. This has serious implications for the society, the economy and the
environment, including the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals. The triple food, fuel and
financial crisis, and the impacts of climate change aggravate pressure on resources and add to the
vulnerability of people and ecosystems, particularly in marginal regions. Arguably, water lies at the structural
heart of these challenges (WEF, 2011).
In total more than 800 million people lack access to electricity in the Asia-Pacific region. While millions of
people lack access to modern energy services in the least developed countries, particularly in rural areas, there
is a need to expand energy access to contribute to the reduction of poverty in many LLDCs. In addition to this
issue, climate change is likely to affect energy supplies and interrupt existing energy services in LLDCs.
For example, Сentral Asian LLDCs are rich in fuel and energy resources, but each country has different
stocks of them. In Kazakhstan there is concentration of the largest deposits of oil and coal, Turkmenistan and
Uzbekistan have natural gas fields, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have a great potential of hydropower resources.
This distribution of resources objectively determines the economic expediency of energy integration of
Central Asian countries through the exchange of different energy resources, thus contributing to the
diversification and energy security in the region.
Economies of LLDS are facing serious challenges in management of urbanization, such as in urban
restructuring (ex. LLDCs of the Former Soviet Union), reliant upon greater urban economic diversification
and job creation. In-conflict and post-conflict LLDCs (Afghanistan and Nepal) have extremely high urban
13 growth rates spurred by rural security issues, the significant increase of informal settlements, informal
employment sectors, infrastructure security issues, housing and land deficits4
Hydropower currently contributes to 16% of world electricity supply (Kumar et al, 2011), and the percentage
is higher in many countries. Thus, the share of hydropower in the structure of generating capacities of Central
Asia constitutes 27.3% of the total energy consumed by the region. In Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan this figure
goes up over 90%, indicating the dependence of their economies on the availability and usage regime of water
resources. Observations show that energy resources in LLDCs are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate
change due to the impacts on hydropower resources. Another example: changing precipitation patterns may
impact on hydroelectricity resources in all LLDCs, while changes in the hydrological systems will also impact
on global hydropower generation. Studies have that projected a decrease in precipitation will lead to reduce
the availability of water for power generation in Armenia (UNDP, 2010). Particular threats in Kazakhstan on
hydropower production occur due to the temperature rise. Risks in Nepal include the effect of hydroelectricity
production, which provides electricity to many rural communities. Lao PDR is proposing many new
hydropower dams along the Mekong River, with as many as nine dams currently proposed, so there is a need
for the future climate change projections to be factored into these plans.
The demands for water, energy and food are increasing with urbanisation, economic and demographic change,
and at the same time these resources are increasingly interlinked and interconnected. Production of energy is
often water-intensive, while agricultural systems are reliant on energy resources; more than 80% of water
resources go towards food production through agriculture.
Given that greenhouse gas emissions are extremely low, adaptation to climate change is a bigger priority for
Afghanistan, than mitigation (DFID, 2007). Adapting to the impacts of climate change and reducing
emissions will require measures to access technologies, for example, efficient water and energy technologies.
Therefore under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) there has been
discussion of the issue of technology transfer, including research, development, deployment and
dissemination of technologies.
The triple food, fuel and water crisis, financial crises and climate change exemplifies this issue and may be a
precursor of the future of LLDCs ahead. The scale and complexity of water–energy–food security nexus issue
requires a coherent and integrated approach, including the need for trans-boundary cooperation. The Bonn
2011 Nexus Conference concluded that “resource scarcity is not the limiting factor, but rather it is the lack of
commitment and capacity to manage scarcity” (WEF, 2011). Incorporating a holistic nexus-driven approach
can increase the efficiency to manage scarcity and support a transition to green economy, by reducing tradeoffs, generating synergies to tackle emerging issues from climate impacts. Therefore there is an emerging
need for LLDCs to consider practical and technological synergies between water, food and energy security
(within visible infrastructure of economy, UNESCAP, 2012) and integration of policy frameworks (within
invisible infrastructure of economy, UNESCAP, 2012) to cope with the climate change. Thus, LLDCs, where
relevant, have a choice to shift to low carbon growth patterns and to invest in eco-efficient energy
infrastructure (UNESCAP, 2012), to be more resilient and to cope with climate change.
4
See "The State of Asian Cities" ESCAP, UN-HABITAT, 2011-12, available at http://www.unescap.org/esd/apuf5/documents/SACR.pdf.
14 3. Building Resilience
In the changing environment and especially in climate change, building resilience is to build the capability of
a system to absorb disturbances while preserving the same essential structure and functionality, the capacity
for self-organisation, and the capacity to adapt to and rebound from change and pressure (Green Growth,
2012). Thus, resilience is a concept that centres on the capacity of societies and economies to resist and adapt
to shocks, and turn crisis into opportunity (UNESCAP, 2011).
(a) Adaptation and Mitigation (where relevant) Measures:
Adaptation is the adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or
their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities (IPCC, 2007). There are a range of
adaptation measures and options which countries can take forward to build resilience. There is a close
relationship between adaptation and development, so adaptation activities may range from development
activities that address the drivers of vulnerability to climate change, to activities that directly confront the
impacts of climate change (McGray et al, 2007). Along this continuum between adaptation and development,
other activities and options may also include activities that build response capacity, and activities to manage
climate risks (McGray et al, 2007). Those that confer benefits under a wide range of potential climatic
conditions, even in the absence of climate change can be referred to as “no-regrets” outcomes which function
effectively in a wide range of conditions and provide high level of security and confidence (UNESCAP,
2011). A selected example of planned adaptation by sector is also tabled in IPCC, 2007, Assessment Report 4.
Adaptation measures in Afghanistan include water management to address drought, as well as increasing the
significant scope for water efficiency in irrigation. Interventions being undertaken by UNEP include
improved water management and use efficiency; community-based watershed management; terracing,
agroforestry and agro-silvo pastoral systems; research and early warning systems; improved food security;
and rangeland management (UNEP, 2012). In Armenia, UNDP also tries to address climate change impacts
on mountain forest ecosystems and improve national access to sustainable energy services (particularly
technical assistance to improve the energy efficiency of municipal heating and hot water supply in several
cities such as Yerevan, Spitak, Gyumri and etc. (UNDP, 2012). Some adaptation options in Kazakhstan
include both introduction of new irrigation systems or transition to cultivation of new agricultural crops, or
development of efficient and rational plans on natural resource use jointly with other countries (UNDP,
2010a).
International development agencies have been prominent in supporting and identifying appropriate adaptation
pilot activities. The UNDP/GEF SGP in Kyrgyzstan is supporting activity related to four themes: (1)
biodiversity conservation, (2) mitigation of the consequences of climate change, (3) quality protection of
international waters, (4) combating land degradation (Adaptation Partnership, 2011). In Nepal, some
examples of adaptation options include micro-irrigation systems, which can also be used to reduce
vulnerability to the traditional rain fed systems, which fail as the weather patterns become more unpredictable
(Oxfam, 2011).
Many countries have tried to build synergies between adaptation and mitigation of climate change. In
Moldova, the UNDP argues that adaptation options have potential synergies with the overarching
development goals of the country as well as with the important priority of mitigating future greenhouse gas
emissions. Measures to address decreasing agricultural yield in Macedonia include soil and water
conservation, efficient irrigation, new breeds and new agricultural practices (UNDP, 2008).
In Uzbekistan, potential adaptation measures include the implementation of an integrated water resources
management system, improvement of irrigation systems, adapting to hazards and introduction of droughtresistant plant species. More than 80% of greenhouse gas emissions in Uzbekistan are from the energy sector,
including the oil and gas sector, and there have been emerging efforts to mitigate emissions (UNFCCC,
15 2008b). For example, Uzbekistan registered several projects with the Clean Development Mechanism
(CDM). At the same time, given that greenhouse gas emissions are extremely low, mitigation is not a major
priority for Afghanistan (DFID, 2007).
However, it is likely that GHG emissions will increase as a result of energy policies favoring conversion of
gas to coal in electricity production (UNECE, 2010). The trends show, that the presence of large coal reserves
in the region (ex. Kazakhstan is one of the largest coal-producing countries of Central Asia, and it possesses
3.5% of world reserves) and the reliability of supply will allow, over a relatively short period of time, to
eliminate imbalances in the structure of power generating capacities in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and to
improve energy security in these countries. According to Central Asian energy experts, the availability of coal
reserves in Central Asia subregion makes it one of the least expensive sources of energy. Its value is one third
of the cost of natural gas per unit of energy and about one-eighth of the oil cost. Production of electricity from
coal is also highly competitive in terms of price compared with other sources. Thus, the comparative
economical advantage of coal in this region raises challenges for policy frameworks in the subregion to
provide correct inventive to increase energy efficiency and to encourage diversification in the energy sector.
(b) National Plans and Programmes
Under the Framework of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), many
countries have already developed national plans and programmes on adaptation and mitigation of climate
change. In many cases these plans will now require mainstreaming into national development planning
processes. Several LLDCs (Bhutan, Nepal, Lao PDR and Afghanistan) have now already developed National
Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs) as a means of identifying medium- and long-term adaptation
needs, and developing and implementing strategies and programmes to address those needs. Building on this
process, many countries are now working towards the development of National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) with
a greater focus on integration into national planning.
For example, it was reported that UNDP has assisted the government of Armenia to finalize development of
the Second National Communication under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and
mainstream climate change adaptation measures into relevant national policy (UNDP, 2012). In Azerbaijan,
after the Initial National Communication, Azerbaijan joined the Kyoto Protocol and the Second National
Communication of 2006 paid particular attention to climate change and adaptation. Activities included: (1)
Preparation of GHG inventory in accordance with IPCC methods, (2) Public awareness, (3) Support of
realization of UNFCC and Kyoto protocol, (4) Fundraising, (5) Projects within the Clean Development
mechanism (Verdiyev, 2006).
National plans and programmes have tried to identify the most vulnerable sectors and adaptation hotspots. For
example Lao, like Nepal and Bhutan, is highly dependent on agriculture and natural resources, and already
suffers from frequent floods and droughts. The NAPA (National Adaptation Program for Action) in Lao
recognized the areas of agriculture, forestry, health and water resources as particularly vulnerable (UNFCCC,
2009). In 2010, the Government of Nepal published the NAPA (National Adaptation Programme of Action)
which highlighted adaptation needs in the areas of agriculture and food security, water resources and energy,
disasters, forests and biodiversity, public health, urban areas and infrastructure (MoE, 2010). In 2006, The
Bhutan’s NAPA process, conceived under the framework of the Royal Government of Bhutan’s sustainable
development Five-Year Plan (FYP) was submitted to UNFCCC, and guided by Bhutan’s National
Environment Commission (NEC) to implement sector agencies or ministries and execute the key objectives of
the NAPA process. Moreover, Bhutan’s NAPA process listed nine location-specific priority activities and
later three priority activities were selected as the components to address potential GLOFs (Glacier Lake
Outburst Floods) which were: (1)Artificially lowering the water level in Thorthormi Lake; (2) Increasing the
capacity for disaster risk management in affected valleys; (3) Installing a technical early warning system for
GLOFs (UNFCCC, 2008).
16 Adaptation policies and policy documents in Lao PDR are: (1) GoL’s strategy for Climate Change in 2010,
with adaptation and mitigation options for 7 key priority areas including agriculture sector/food security, (2)
National Communication on Climate Change (first published in 2000, the second one is under preparation),
(3) National Adaptation Program for Action/NAPA (published in 2009, outlining priority programmes and
actions for Lao PDR, including agriculture/food security), (4) National Growth and Poverty Eradication
Strategy (NGPES), (5) National Sustainable Development Strategy (NSDS), (6) Collaboration with UNDP for
preparation of Environmental Law, (7) Finalization of an inter-ministerial agreement on conversion of
agriculture land for other purpose (Mounlamai, 2010).
Countries have also highlighted the need for institutional, legal and governance responses for adaptation to
climate change. In Kyrgyzstan, the Country’s Second National Communication (2009) of has outlined its
overall priority adaptation actions as follows: (1) Improvement of legislation (starting with a national
adaptation strategy to climate change), (2) Improvement of institutional structures (permanent structures and
communications between individual departments), (3) Increasing knowledge, (4) Building economic
incentives for adaptation actions (Adaptation Partnership, 2011). Overall, the current programs in Kyrgyzstan
are mainly on water management, agro-biodiversity and land related issues.
For many countries, the issues of water security, food security and energy security are high on the agenda for
adaptation to climate change. At the present time, under the water management development priorities of
Turkmenistan up to 2030, priority has been given to the water sector capacity where adaptation measures will
be conducted to prevent climate change. Rich in energy resources, Turkmenistan pays special attention to
climate change impacts on environment by promoting environmental friendly technologies in the oil and gas
industry, power engineering, transport and other branches of the national economy (UNFCCC, 2010).
In Mongolia, the Ministry of Environment has stated that the adaptation problem was a higher priority than
the GHG mitigation problem in Mongolia (MARCC, 2009). The report formulates five key adaptation
recommendations for Mongolia, namely to: develop an Integrated Urban Water Management plan for the
Tuul River Basin; increase investment and rehabilitate existing water supply networks for the domestic water
supply; reduce the population's vulnerability to extreme weather events by improving existing flood
protection systems, installing an early warning system, reviewing housing and settlement plans, and raising
public awareness. Further activities include improvement of water quality, particularly through the
rehabilitation of wastewater treatment plants, especially in Ulaanbaatar; and better enforcement of the legal
framework on water supply, disposal and wastewater treatment (UNEP, 2011).
(c) Mobilizing Financing and Resources for Adaptation
The likely costs of adaptation to climate change are high and costs of inaction are higher still (World Bank,
2009, ADB 2009, Stern Report 2006). Resources currently available for adaptation fall far short of these
needs. Economic impact assessments for various adaptation options would identify the ways to optimize
economic performance, social equity and environmental sustainability, thus increase the security (APWF,
2012).
International finance for adapting to climate change is becoming available. In the 2009 Copenhagen Accord,
during the 15th Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC (COP-15), the Green Climate Fund was
announced, and countries have committed to mobilising finance of $100Bn per year by 2020 for climate
change adaptation. This finance will be balanced between adaptation and mitigation, and there will be
provisions for mobilizing of finance from the private sector as well as the private sector. It was decided that
the World Bank will be the interim trustee of the Green Climate Fund and further announcements are
expected in 2012 and 2013 on the progress made towards implementation.
At the international level, the Adaptation Fund already exists which finances projects and programmes to help
developing countries adapt to climate change. The fund is overseen by the Adaptation Fund Board and is set
17 up under the Kyoto Protocol of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
Officially launched in 2007, the fund is mainly financed with a share of proceeds from the Clean
Development Mechanism (CDM) due to a levy of 2% on the CDM credits. The total resources in 2010 were
around US$160 million, and the Global Environment Facility (GEF) provides the secretariat of the board,
with the World Bank serving as trustee. National Implementing Entities (NIE) have been established in some
countries globally but none of the LLDCs yet have this facility, which may indicate need for capacitybuilding to enhance access to climate adaptation finance.
The Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF) was established in 2001 and the GEF is the operating entity of the
financial mechanism, with the World Bank as Trustee. The SCCF has two active windows: (1) Adaptation
and (2) Transfer of technologies. Its governing instrument also allows it to support projects on energy,
transport, industry, agriculture, forestry, and waste management; and activities to assist developing countries
whose economies are highly dependent on income generated from the production, processing, and export or
on consumption of fossil fuels and associated energy-intensive products in diversifying their economies.A
total of $240 million has so far been pledged to the fund according to the Climate Funds Update. The
constraints of this fund are that funding is only provided to address impacts of climate change in addition to
the basic development needs in vulnerable socio-economic sectors, therefore countries have to demonstrate
additionality. Other international funds that are resourcing and funding adaptation to climate change in some
LLDCs include the Least Developed Countries Fund (LDCF) which works in the LDCs such as Lao DPR in
order to support development of NAPAs. Another funding resource has been the PPCR (Pilot Programme for
Climate Resilience) which is a targeted program of the Strategic Climate Fund (SCF), which is one of two
funds within the framework of the World Bank’s Climate Investment Funds (CIF). From the LLDC
countries, Nepal and Tajikistan both have PPCR programmes.
Other ways in which countries can mobilize the finance needed for national adaptation to climate change
include through environmental tax and fiscal reform (ETFR). For example, by placing taxes on pollution and
carbon emissions, or through removal of subsidies going towards fossil fuels, countries can raise revenue for
the government expenditure which can be channeled towards investments in no-regrets measures to increase
resilience, including infrastructure for resilient and socially inclusive green growth (UNESCAP, 2012).
Environmental fiscal reform can raise considerable revenue, for example, the phasing out of fossil fuel
subsidies in Indonesia enabled savings of $10 Billion in 2006 in Indonesia which were channeled towards the
welfare of 19 million of the poorest rural and urban households in the Bantuan Langsung Tunai cash transfer
programme (UNESCAP, 2012a). Other LLDCs may be able to benefit from environmental tax and fiscal
reforms in the same way in order to raise the needed finance for addressing climate change vulnerability.
4. Conclusion
Landlocked countries have specific vulnerability to the impacts of climate change, since sustainable
development in LLDCs is challenged by lack of territorial access to the sea, remoteness from world markets,
inadequate transport infrastructure and prohibitive transport costs. There are differences in countries’
circumstances and vulnerability to the risks and impacts of anthropogenic climate change, based on respective
sub-regional, geographical, socio-economic and ecosystem characteristics, along with differing development
challenges, including the impacts and differences in urban growth rates.
Vulnerability: Due to the lack of territorial access to the sea, the remoteness from world markets, the
inadequate transport infrastructure and prohibitive transport costs, landlocked countries are especially
vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, and more than 90% are water related (IPCC, 2007). The climate
change challenges landlocked countries mainly on natural disasters, water security, food security and energy
supplies and services. The main natural disasters that threaten landlocked countries include floods, droughts,
storms, as well as extremes of temperatures and cold/heat waves, wet and dry mass movements. In the past
18 decade, climate change has caused tremendous loss both in both assets and human life through natural
disasters. The water security issues mainly involve the increasing risks of extreme events such as flooding and
drought, and the deterioration of water quality. A lot of landlocked countries are threatened by severe water
scarcity, while others suffer from the risks of diseases like diarrheal and vector-borne as a consequence the
sanitation problem resulted from flooding. In addition, many landlocked developing countries are sensitive to
climate change and extreme weather events due to the severe water stress, the fast speed of land degradation
and the high economic reliance on agriculture. Besides the facts that farmers have to adapt to climate change
by changing crops and the increased temperature raises the water demand of crops, agricultural systems are
likely to be affected by extreme weather events, changes in pests and diseases, and the impacts of
desertification in some areas. Finally, climate change is likely to affect and interrupt energy supplies and
services, for example, changing precipitation patterns may impact hydroelectricity resources and damage
infrastructure.
Building resilience: Facing the great challenges from climate change, landlocked countries have been making
great efforts to build up their capacities to combat the disturbance resulted from climate change. Thus, a lot of
landlocked countries have taken adaptation measures, that is, the adjustment in natural or human systems in
response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial
opportunities. Those adaptation measures include integrated supply and demand management of water
resources, water storage infrastructure (surface water and groundwater), watershed development, rainwater
harvesting, and water conservation and community initiatives to integrate land and water management. For
instance, farmers can improve management of water including efficient and effective use of irrigation water.
Drought-resistant seed varieties or crop switching will also reduce the amount of water required by crops. To
ensure adaptation, LLDCs have now already developed National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs)
as a means of identifying medium- and long-term adaptation needs, and developing and implementing
strategies and programmes to address those needs. Building on this process, many countries are now working
towards the development of National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) with a greater focus on integration into
national planning. Besides that, countries have also highlighted the need for institutional, legal and
governance responses for adaptation to climate change. Mobilizing financing and resources for adaptation
became a very important activity. In the Copenhagen Accord, adopted by countries in 2009, the Green
Climate Fund was announced, and countries have committed to mobilising finance of $100Bn per year by
2020 for climate change adaptation. Besides that, there is the Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF)
established in 2001, among other international finance initiatives. Other ways in which countries can mobilize
the finance needed for national adaptation to climate change include environmental tax and fiscal reform
(ETFR) and encourage insurance schemes to share risks (UNESCAP, UNEP and ADB, 2012).
Low Carbon Development refers both to a strategy and development trajectory that emphasizes "decarbonizing" and de-linking material and energy-intensive practices from economic development to foster
climate change mitigation and socio-economic progress. This can be accomplished by increasing investment
in natural capital (e.g. carbon sinks) and access to sustainable infrastructure (e.g. renewable energy and public
transport), enhancing eco-efficiency (e.g. energy-efficiency), and promoting sustainable consumption and
production patterns. As carbon is a key element in most of the anthropogenic greenhouse gases (CH4, CO2,
PFCs, HFCs, etc.), the term low carbon is used when referring to their collective reduction.
To build resilience to tackle the impacts of climate change we start through building awareness and
understanding the ways to cope with risks and vulnerabilities are the ways to sustain economic growth. The
report on Green Growth, Resources and Resilience by ESCAP, UNEP and ADB in 2011, describes an
evolving policy landscape characterised by a changing economic realities, rising demand for resources,
increasingly apparent impacts of environmental and climate change and increased risk and uncertainty.
The Low Carbon Green Growth Roadmap -LCGGR (ESCAP, KOICA, 2012), launched by ESCAP in May
2012, proposes a number of measures and policy tools, such as: improving quality of growth and maximizing
net growth; changing invisible structure of the economy by closing the gap between economic and ecological
19 efficiencies, changing the visible structure of the economy through planning and designing eco-efficient
infrastructure; turning green into a business opportunity; formulating and implementing low carbon
development strategies . With regard to resources management, LCGGR proposes to develop an integrated
and decentralized system on eco-efficient infrastructure. For example, eco-efficient water resources
management and diversification in key sectors, such as industry, agriculture and energy to achieve low carbon
green growth are some of the key points indicated in the roadmap.
Regional cooperation: Rio +20 emphasized that regional and subregional organizations, including the United
Nations regional commissions and their subregional offices, have a significant role to play in promoting a
balanced integration of the economic, social and environmental dimensions of sustainable development in
their respective region and recognized the need to ensure effective linkage among global, regional,
subregional and national processes, baring in mind the urban economic diversification, to advance sustainable
development.
Regional cooperation is particularly important for adaptive strategies such as enhancing disaster risk
reduction. There are already a variety of regional bodies that can enhance disaster risk reduction in the
LLDCs under climate change. For example, in the Central Asian countries the Executive Committee of the
International Fund for saving the Aral Sea (EC-IFAS) is an international organization supported by Central
Asian Governments working for cooperation in water resources and environmental management, based in
Almaty, Kazakhstan. Capacity needs to be build for effective disaster risk reduction management in Central
Asia, as the organization has begun to work on climate change adaptation, and the impacts of climate change
on water resources and energy infrastructure with the support of USAID (EC-IFAS, 2012).
At the Asia-Pacific level, there are several regional-level disaster risk reduction mechanisms led by
UNESCAP. For instance, the Central Asia DRR Knowledge Network for Flood Risk Reduction was launched
in September 2010 which is an online network for sharing of information and knowledge that will improve
disaster risk reduction and management in the subregion. UNESCAP has also launched the along with the
Regional Cooperative Mechanism on Disaster Monitoring and Early Warning, Particularly Drought and the
Regional Space Application Program for Sustainable Development (RESAP). At the global level, the
FEWSNET (Famine Early Warning Systems Network) holds a database containing data on selected countries
in support of monitoring rainfall and snow cover (FEWSNET, 2012) although more data is clearly needed to
support early warning systems for food security in the region.
Furthermore, the Asia Pacific Adaptation Network (APAN) was established in 2009 as part of the Global
Climate Adaptation Network (GAN). In South Asia, Nepal and Bhutan are both members of SAARC (South
Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) which has already begun work on adaptation to climate change.
Nepal and Bhutan are also both members of the Climate Action Network South Asia (CANSA). In SouthEast Asia, Lao DPR is a member of the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) regional
cooperation and the Mekong River Commission (MRC) which can both enhance the cooperation over
regional issues such as water management. Various other regional organizations that relate to climate change
issues also exist. Rather than creating new regional organizations it is recommended that countries must
strengthen the existing partnerships that exist for effective adaptation cooperation, particularly on issues such
as integrated water resources management that cross country boundaries and are crucial for adaptation to
climate change.
To develop better frameworks for climate change adaptation and mitigation, build up resilience to climate
variability and promote collaborations in the regional and international levels, it is vital to raise great
awareness and understanding of these critical issues and their interactions. To achieve that, regional
cooperation could be developed which might include: building up country resilience through existing
knowledge platforms, building synergies within policy frameworks and managing trade-offs, and
strengthening regional cooperation to address critical issues, and continuing capacity building programmes to
support and facilitate inter-sectoral policy dialogues at the national and cross-country levels. Areas for
20 collaboration may include the need for early warning systems to assist with disaster risk reduction under
climate change, as well as potential for collaboration on water, energy and food security issues, engaging
systemic and innovative mechanisms to address climatic impacts. Through these mechanisms, countries may
be able to build resilience, ensure stable partnerships and implement measures to secure infrastructure
development for trade and other development needs.
Furthermore, climate projections of temperature and rainfall patterns depend on existing and future emissions
of greenhouse gases, highlighting the importance of both international collaboration as mentioned above and
domestic policy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The various projections, forecasts and scenarios on
climate change depend on socio-economic development pathways and whether there is a shift towards ‘green
growth’. Thus, it is imperative to facilitate international cooperation to control greenhouse gas emissions and
to encourage energy efficiency and diversification in industry, agriculture and energy sectors.
Thus, in order to adapt to climate change, countries practice the integration of climate change risks into
national development plans and programmes and the development of infrastructure, based on scientific
knowledge and supported by emerging climate finance. To raise greater awareness and understanding of the
emerging issues of climatic variations, regional cooperation should be further developed and might include
the following areas: engagement of the systemic and innovative mechanisms to address climatic impacts;
early warning system to assist with disaster risk reduction under climate change; building synergies within
policy frameworks and managing the trade-offs of inaction; address the critical issues and continue building
capacity and programmes; support the inter-sectorial policy dialogues at the national and cross-boundary
levels; potential cooperation on water, energy and food security issues, which would further develop
partnerships in implementing measures to secure infrastructure development for trade, food security and
other needs. The new set of programmes should be identified for further development of cooperation, such as,
diversification in industries, agriculture and energy sectors, environmental tax and fiscal reforms would assist
countries to address special needs within next phase of APoA.
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25 Annex
Annex 1. Country Profiles for Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bhutan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Lao
PDR, the Republic of Moldova, Mongolia, Nepal, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, the Former Yugoslav Republic
of Macedonia, Uzbekistan
Afghanistan:
Afghanistan is particularly vulnerable to the severe impacts of drought, since it is a mountainous, dry country
with a semi-arid and arid climate (DFID, 2007). It was estimated that in the past 30 years, drought occurred
four times, totally affected 6510000 people and killed 37 people with an economic loss of 142.05 million US
dollars. Meanwhile, flood also happened six times, totally affected 161620 people, and killed 202 people with
an economic loss of 260 million US dollars (EM-DAT, 2012).
Though rainfall may increase in the short-term, the trend by 2090’s shows decreased rainfall so drought will
become the norm rather than a cyclical occurrence (DFID, 2007). Given that greenhouse gas emissions are
extremely low, mitigation is not a major priority for Afghanistan (DFID, 2007).
Adaptation measures include water management to address drought, as well as increasing the significant
scope for water efficiency in irrigation. Interventions being undertaken by UNEP include improved water
management and use efficiency; community-based watershed management; terracing, agroforestry and agrosilvo pastoral systems; research and early warning systems; improved food security; and rangeland
management (UNEP, 2012).
Armenia
Studies have projected a decrease in precipitation that will lead to reduce the availability of water for
agriculture and power generation. As well as heat waves as temperatures rise, there is likely to be a shortage
of water, food shortages or increased food prices as agricultural productivity falters, and an increased
incidence of landslides, mudflows, and floods (UNDP, 2010).
In the past 30 years, drought occurred in Armenia once, totally affected 297000 people and caused economic
loss of 100 million US dollars.
Meanwhile, earthquake also happened once, totally affected 15000 people, and caused economic loss of
33.333 million US dollars. Flood hit Armenia twice, killed 4 people, leading to economic loss of 8.12 million
US dollars. (EM-DAT, 2012)
It was reported that UNDP currently assisted the government to finalize development of the Second National
Communication under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and mainstream climate change
adaptation measures into relevant national policy. UNDP also tries to address climate change impact on
mountain forest ecosystems and improve national access to sustainable energy services (particularly technical
assistance to improve the energy efficiency of municipal heating and hot water supply in several cities such as
Yerevan, Spitak, Gyumri and etc. (UNDP, 2012)
Azerbaijan
Water resources in Azerbaijan are projected to be particularly vulnerable, as well as quality of water. Climate
change has increased the risks on water and food management, for example in vulnerable communities in the
Greater Caucasus region of Azerbaijan.
In the past 30 years, drought hit Azerbaijan once, and caused economic loss as much as 100 million US
dollars. Meanwhile, earthquake in Azerbaijan happened four times, affected 728024 people and killed 33
26 people with an economic loss of 15 million US dollars. Flood occurred twice, totally affected 81000 people
and killed 16 people, with an economic loss of 29 million US dollars. (EM-DAT, 2012)
After the Initial National Communication, Azerbaijan joined to Kyoto Protocol and till September 2006,
Azerbaijan was in the process of preparation of the Second National Communication. Main attention would
be paid to climate change and adaptation: 1. Preparation of GHG inventory in accordance with IPCC
methods, 2. Public awareness, 3. Support of realization of UNFCCC and Kyoto protocol, 4. Fundraising, 5.
Projects within the Clean Development mechanism (Verdiyev, 2006)
Bhutan
Bhutan is also a mountainous country which is highly vulnerable to the effects of melting glaciers. The
country’s NAPA (National Adaptation Programme of Action) identified floods and landslides specifically
(UNFCCC, 2006). Bhutan’s key sectors affected by the adverse effects of climate change include
infrastructure, agriculture, forestry, water resources, energy and health. The vast majority of Bhutan’s
population are subsistence farmers, and will be directly affected by temperature changes and unpredictable
monsoon patterns. Infrastructure will also suffer increased damage from landslides and flashfloods. Bhutan’s
economy is highly dependent on hydropower, which contributes to over 12 per cent of the country’s GDP.
In the past 30 years, earthquake hit Bhutan twice, totally affected 20028 people and killed 12 people. Flood
occurred once, totally affected 600 people and killed 22 people. Storm happened twice, totally affected 65000
people and killed 29 people. (EM-DAT, 2012)
In 2006, The Bhutan’s NAPA process, conceived under the framework of the Royal Government of Bhutan’s
sustainable development Five-Year Plan (FYP) was submitted to UNFCCC, and guided by Bhutan’s National
Environment Commission (NEC) to implement sector agencies or ministries and execute the key objectives of
the NAPA process. Moreover, Bhutan’s NAPA process listed nine location-specific priority activities and
later three priority activities were selected as the components to address potential GLOFs: ‘1. Artificially
lowering the water level in Thorthormi Lake; 2. Increasing the capacity for disaster risk management in
affected valleys; 3.Installing a technical early warning system for GLOFs.’ (UNFCCC, 2008)
Kazakhstan
Particular threats for Kazakhstan include the temperature rise, agricultural threats and impacts on hydropower
production. Some adaptation options in Kazakhstan include both introduction of new irrigation systems or
transition to cultivation of new agricultural crops, or development of efficient and rational plans on natural
resources use jointly with other countries (UNDP, 2010a).
In the past 30 years, earthquake hit Kazakhstan once, totally affected 36626 people and killed 3 people.
Extreme temperature caused by cold wave occurred twice, totally affected 600012 people and killed 3 people.
Flood happened twice, totally affected 6168 people with an economic loss of 1.5 million US dollars.
Furthermore, storm took place once and killed 112 people with an economic loss of 3 million US dollars.
(EM-DAT, 2012)
Kyrgyzstan
Risks of climate change in Kyrgyzstan include the threats of melting glaciers, changing rainfall cycles and
even changing to the reproductive cycles of livestock (World Bank, 2012). Drought and loss of production are
another threat. Early warning systems to prevent floods, landslides and mudflows are important.
It was estimated that in the past 30 years, both drought and earthquake hit Kyrgyzstan once and affected
2,000,000 people and 1,197 people, respectively. Extreme temperature caused by cold wave occurred once
and killed 11 people. Flood happened once in Kyrgyzstan, totally affected 7728 people with an economic loss
27 of 2.4 million US dollars. Storm took place once, killed 4 people and totally affected 9075 people. (EM-DAT,
2012)
The Country’s Second National Communication (2009) outlined its overall priority adaptation actions as
follows: 1. Improvement of legislation (start with a national adaptation strategy to climate change); 2.
Improvement of institutional structure (permanent structure and communications between individual
departments) ; 3. Increase knowledge; 4. Economic incentives of adaptation actions (Adaptation Partnership,
2011)
Overall current programs in Kyrgyzstan are mainly about water management, agro-biodiversity and land
related issues. The UNDP/GEF SGP in Kyrgyzstan is supporting activity related to four themes: 1.
biodiversity conservation, 2. mitigation of the consequences of climate change, 3. quality protection of
international waters, 4. combating land degradation. (Adaptation Partnership, 2011)
Lao PDR
Lao, like Nepal and Bhutan, as also dependent on agriculture and natural resources, and already suffers from
frequent floods and droughts. The NAPA (National Adaptation Program for Action) in Lao recognized the
areas of agriculture, forestry, health and water resources as particularly vulnerable (UNFCCC, 2009).
In the past 30 years, drought happened four times, totally affected 750000 people and caused damage of 1
million US dollars. Meanwhile, flood occurred five times, totally affected 1295000 people and killed 29
people, with an economic loss of 1 million US dollars. Storm took place twice, totally affected 38435 people
and killed 8 people with an economic loss of 302.301 million US dollars. (EM-DTA, 2012)
Adaptation: important policies and policy documents are: 1. GoL’s strategy for Climate Change in 2010, with
adaptation and mitigation options for 7 key priority areas including agriculture sector/food security. 2.
National Communication on Climate Change (first published in 2000, the second one is under preparation). 3.
National Adaptation Program for Action/NAPA (published in 2009, outlining priority programmes and
actions for Lao PDR, including agriculture/food security). 4. National Growth and Poverty Eradication
Strategy (NGPES). 5. National Sustainable Development Strategy (NSDS). 6. Collaboration with UNDP for
preparation of Environmental Law. 7. Finalization of an inter-ministerial agreement on conversion of
agriculture land for other purpose. (Mounlamai, 2010)
Republic of Moldova
Climate change is likely to have impacts such as increasing extreme weather events on sectors vital to human
development in Moldova: water resources, ecosystems, agriculture and energy, transport infrastructure and
health (UNDP, 2009). Extreme events have occurred recently for example the 2008 floods.
In the past 30 years, drought hit Republic of Moldova twice, totally affected 210394 people and killed 2
people with an economic loss of 406 million US dollars. Extreme temperature caused by cold wave occurred
once, totally affected 5523 people. Flood happened three times, totally affected 4457 people with an
economic loss of 54.832 million US dollars. Furthermore, storm took place once and totally affected 2600000
people with an economic loss of 31.6 million US dollars. (EM-DAT, 2012)
The UNDP argues that adaptation options in Moldova have potential synergies with the overarching
development goals of the country as well as with the important priority of mitigating future greenhouse gas
emissions.
Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
28 The agricultural sector in Macedonia has particular vulnerability, particularly the alpine and sub-alpine
regions. Measures to address decreasing agricultural yields in Macedonia include soil and water
conservation, efficient irrigation, new breeds and new agricultural practices (UNDP, 2008).
It was estimated that in the past 30 years drought happened once, causing an economic loss of 1000 million
US dollars. Meanwhile, earthquake took place three times, totally affected 1636 people and killed 20 people.
Flood occurred once, affected 1000 people. Furthermore, the wildfire caused economic loss of 200 million US
dollars. (EM-DAT, 2012)
Mongolia
A significant portion of economic activities has always been based on natural resources such as pasture,
animal husbandry, arable land and water resource. Mongolia would face specific concerns such as melting
of permafrost area, desertification, drought and etc. In addition, climate change would seriously affect
ecosystem, natural grassland, arable farming, pasture animal husbandry and soil quality.
The adaptation problem would be given priority over the GHG mitigation problem in Mongolia (MARCC,
2009). The urban water resource in Mongolia is vulnerable to the climate change. The consequences of effects
are reduced snow cover, frequencies of floods and droughts. There are challenges for the country in terms of
reducing the climate change burden in water supply, human health and aquatic ecosystems.
‘In the past 30 years, drought happened once, and totally affected 450000 people. Extreme temperate occurred
once, totally affected 769113 people, and killed 5 people with an economic loss of 62 million US dollars.
Storm took place four times, totally affected 1265000 people and killed 14 people with an economic loss of
90 million US dollars. Wildfire hit Mongolia twice, totally affected 5061 people and killed 25 people with an
economic loss of 1.823 billion US dollars. (EM-DAT, 2012)
The report formulates five key adaptation recommendations for Mongolia, namely to: develop an Integrated
Urban Water Management plan for the Tuul River Basin; increase investment and rehabilitate existing water
supply networks for the domestic water supply; reduce the population's vulnerability to extreme weather
events by improving existing flood protection systems, installing an early warning system, reviewing housing
and settlement plans, and raising public awareness; improve water quality, particularly through the
rehabilitation of wastewater treatment plants, especially in Ulaanbaatar; and better enforce the
legalframework on water supply, disposal and wastewater treatment’ (UNEP, 2011).
Nepal:
Climate risks: Mountain ecosystems in the Eastern Himalayas have been recognised as particularly vulnerable
to climate change impacts, due to the variation in altitudes (ADB, 2012). The glaciers in the Himalayas are
melting which leads to the risk of glacier lake outburst flooding (IPCC, 2007). Rivers and watersheds of
Nepal are also at risk of landslides, soil erosion, drought, and more intense rainfall in the monsoon (ADB,
2012). Other risks in Nepal include the effect of hydroelectricity production, which provides electricity to
many rural communities in Nepal. The Himalayan glaciers also provide drinking water to millions of people.
Moreover, Nepal is already vulnerable to food insecurity and food price volatility, and climate change is
likely to worsen this threat (Oxfam, 2011).
In the past 30 years, drought happened twice, totally affecting 503000 people. Meanwhile, earthquake hit
Nepal three times, totally affected 469250 people and killed 716 people with an economic loss of 60 million
US dollars. Extreme temperature occurred five times, totally affected 25200 people and killed 168 people
with an economic loss of 123000 US dollars. Also, flood took place as much as nine times, totally affected
734159 people and killed 1097 people with an economic loss of 765.8 million US dollars. Furthermore, storm
happened four times, totally affected 184 people and killed 27 people with an economic loss of 3.6 million US
29 dollars. Last but not least, wildfire occurred twice, totally affected 54000 people and killed 88 people with an
economic loss of 6.2 million US dollars. (EM-DAT, 2012)
Adaptation and Resilience in Nepal: In 2010, the Government of Nepal published the NAPA (National
Adaptation Programme of Action) which highlighted adaptation needs in the areas of agriculture and food
security, water resources and energy, disasters, forests and biodiversity, public health, urban areas and
infrastructure (MoE, 2010). Some examples of adaptation options include micro-irrigation systems, which can
also be used to reduce vulnerability to the traditional rainfed systems, which fail as the weather patterns
become more unpredictable (Oxfam, 2011).
Tajikistan
Tajikistan is one of the poorest and most vulnerable economics in the world. Blessed with abundant water
resources, Tajikistan has negligible oil, gas and other such natural resources and most of its land is not arable.
It is highly susceptible to natural disasters, such as floods, landslides, earthquake and droughts.
For
Tajikistan, faster economic and social development is the best possible defense against climate change.
It was estimated that in the past 30 years, drought happened twice, totally affected 3800000 people with an
economic loss of 57 million US dollars. Meanwhile, earthquake occurred as much as nine times, totally
affected 40531 people and killed 19 people with an economic loss of 23.5 million US dollars. Extreme winter
conditions totally affected 2 million people and caused damage of 840 million US dollars. Also, flood
happened five times, totally affected 67139 people and killed 1367 people with an economic loss of 300
million US dollars. (EM-DAT, 2012)
According to the government’s latest poverty reduction strategy, four key sectors is considered as
especially important from a climate change perspective: 1. better management of water resources; 2. disaster
management, including disaster risk reduction measures to cost-effectively mitigate the
negative impacts of weather extremes; 3. agriculture; 4. public health. Finally, an overall policy framework is
needed to facilitate faster climate change adaptation. (World Bank, 2010).
There are adaptation needs of natural ecosystem, forest resources, land resources, water resources, agriculture
and human health to climate change. It is suggested to reduce the GHG emission in energy consumption and
industrial sector, enhance the state’s natural carbon sinks, and implement progress of the National Action Plan
for climate change mitigation. Also, participation of Tajikistan in the international negotiations on climate
change and improvement of national and regional projects on climate change will help to create a better
policy framework for mitigation and resilience of Tajikistan (UNFCCC, 2008a)
Turkmenistan
Mainly, the climate change will affect activities of priority sectors of the country: human health sector
(thermal shock), water management (flow decrease) and agricultural sectors as well as coastal zone of
Caspian Sea (sea level rise).
In the past 30 years, flood occurred once, totally affected 420 people and caused economic loss of 99.87
million US dollars.(EM-DAT, 2012).
Accordingly, at present time, under Water management Development Conception of Turkmenistan till 2030,
there was given a priority to the water sector capacity where adaptation measures will be conducted to prevent
climate change. Rich in energy resources, Turkmenistan pays special attention to climate change impact on
environment by using environmental friendly technologies in the oil and gas industry, power engineering,
transport and other branches of the national economy. (UNFCCC, 2010)
Uzbekistan
30 Uzbekistan is mainly desert, with an arid continental climate, and climate change is likely to intensify the
desertification process leading to decreased water resources and biodiversity (UNFCCC, 2008b).
Future threats include the melting of the glaciers and snow reserves, and drying up of the Aral Sea (UNECE,
2010). Uzbekistan uses approximately 90 percent of surface water for irrigation in agriculture, and lack of
water resources and land degradation are currently threatening the productivity of this sector. Uzbekistan
already suffers from water scarcity issues. Reduction in productivity due to climate change could also threaten
the food security of the country. High soil salinity is also an issue in Uzbekistan which could worsen due to
climate change.
In the past 30 years, drought occurred once, totally affected 600000 people with an economic loss of 50
million US dollars. Also, earthquake happened twice, totally affected 50086 people and killed 22 people.
(EM-DAT, 2012)
Potential adaptation measures in Uzbekistan include the implementation of an integrated water resources
management system, improvement of irrigation systems, adapting to hazards and introduction of droughtresistant plant species.More than 80% of greenhouse gas emissions in Uzbekistan are from the energy sector,
including the oil and gas sector, and there have been emerging efforts to mitigate emissions (UNFCCC,
2008b). For example Uzbekistan registered several projects with the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).
However, it is likely that the emissions will increase as a result of energy policies favouring conversion of gas
to coal in electricity production (UNECE, 2010).
Annex 2: Abbreviations, Key Terms and Definitions:
LLDC: Landlocked Least Developed Countries
Climate: Refers to the "average weather" conditions over a long period of time, often as it pertains to a
particular geographic region.
Climate Change: Refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of
human activity (IPCC, 2007)
Adaptation: Adaptation is the adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected
climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. (IPCC, 2007)
Vulnerability: Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse
effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the
character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, the sensitivity
and adaptive capacity of that system. (IPCC, 2007).
Adaptive Capacity: Is a system's entire set of capabilities, resources and institutions of a particular area to 1)
adjust to climate change and variability, 2) moderate potential damage, 3) cope with consequences, or 4)
exploit opportunities. Variables that affect the degree of adaptive capacity include the relative level of
available economic resources, institutional and administrative capacity, access to technology, access to
climate change and variability information, skills to take advantage of the information, and equitable resource
distribution. (GG, 2012)
Resilience: Is the capability of a system to absorb disturbances while preserving the same essential structure
and functionality, the capacity for self-organisation, and the capacity to adapt to and rebound from change and
pressure. (GG, 2012)
Mitigation: Can be described as measures to avoid, reduce, or capture greenhouse gas emissions (e.g. CO2,
N2O, CH4, SF6, HFCs, and PFCs) prior to their release into the atmosphere, or by sequestering previously
emitted GHGs that still remain in the atmosphere through carbon sinks (e.g. forests). (GG, 2012)
31 Green Growth5: Is environmentally-sustainable economic progress that fosters low-carbon, socially inclusive
development. It articulates concise and clear entry points and policy approaches for making real gains in ecoefficiency and transferring to low-carbon development: synergizing climate action with development goals.
Green Growth comprises six, mutually-reinforcing "Paths", or entry points, through which policy makers can
focus interventions: Sustainable Consumption and Production (SCP), Greening Business and the Markets
(GBM), Sustainable Infrastructure (SI), Green Tax and Budget Reform (GTBR), Investment in Natural
Capital (INC), and Eco-efficiency Indicators (EEI).
Green Taxation: Is the process of imposing levies on activities and products that are of environmental
relevance in an effort to assist markets in reflecting the real costs (i.e. production as well as social and
ecological costs) of production and consumption
Impacts from the IPCC: “the effects of climate change on natural and human systems.” The term “impact” is
frequently used loosely in the climate change discourse. Use of the term to describe effects associated with a
change in climate sometimes muddies the waters by implying that climate change alone is responsible for
particular effects, when in fact the effects of climate change are predicated on a large set of contributing or
underlying variables. For human systems in particular, “impact” should not be read to ascribe exclusive
causality to climate change.
Low Carbon Development: refers both to a strategy and development trajectory that emphasizes "decarbonizing" and de-linking material and energy-intensive practices from economic development to foster
climate change mitigation and socio-economic progress. This can be accomplished by increasing investment
in natural capital (e.g. carbon sinks) and access to sustainable infrastructure (e.g. renewable energy and public
transport), enhancing eco-efficiency (e.g. energy-efficiency), and promoting sustainable consumption and
production patterns. As carbon is a key element in most of the anthropogenic greenhouse gases (CH4, CO2,
PFCs, HFCs, etc.), the term low carbon is used when referring to their collective reduction.
Maladaptation: Is defined by the OECD as "business-as-usual development which, by overlooking climate
change impacts, inadvertently increases exposure and/or vulnerability to climate change. Maladaptation could
also include actions undertaken to adapt to climate impacts that do not succeed in reducing vulnerability but
increase it instead" (OECD, 2009, 49).
Sustainable Agriculture: A socially just, humane, economically viable, and environmentally sound system of
farming that works to minimise damage to soil, water sources, species habitat and biodiversity through
environmentally-friendly practices.
Sustainable Livelihoods Approach (SLA): Is a pro-poor approach where livelihoods are conceptualized as
increasing beneficiaries' access to assets (whether it be natural, human, physical, social or financial capital)
with the aim of improving the resiliency of the very poor.
Triple Bottom Line: In practical terms, triple bottom line accounting means expanding the traditional
reporting framework to take into account ecological and social performance in addition to financial
performance.
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