Download Climate Variability and Predictability Program Jim Todd Program Manager, CVP

Climate Variability and Predictability Program
Jim Todd
Program Manager, CVP
NOAA Climate Program Office
2nd NCPO-NWS Dialogue Meeting
January 4, 2006
Silver Spring, Maryland
NOAA CVP and CLIVAR
CVP is a major supporter of CLIVAR (Climate Variability
and Predictability), an international, interdisciplinary
research project of the World Climate Research
Programme (WCRP) focusing on the variability and
predictability of the slowly varying physical components
of the climate system, i.e., those that occur on seasonal,
interannual, decadal and centennial time-scales.
Through this program, CVP leverages significant multiagency (NOAA, NASA, NSF, DOE) and international
support for important activities.
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Climate Variability and Predictability
Major Foci
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Large-scale, recurrent patterns (“modes”) of global climate variability
(ENSO, AO/NAO, PDV, TAV, MOC, global monsoon) and their
teleconnections from subseasonal to decadal time scales, including
predictability studies
Modeling/diagnostics of coupled ocean-atmosphere-(land) interactions,
including studies of stratosphere/troposphere interactions
Improving the understanding of current climate trends (e.g., ocean
warming) in order to exploit inherent predictability
Climate process teams (CPTs) - incorporating observationalists and
modelers to advance our understanding and allow for better
parameterizations of climate processes in models
Studies of the global tropical SST
Abrupt climate change studies (ARCHES)
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Global Ocean Climate Observing System
Global System Status against GCOS Implementation Plan Goals
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Low-latitude Cloud Feedbacks
on Climate Sensitivity CPT
Lead PI: Christopher S Bretherton, University of Washington
Goal - To increase our understanding of tropical and
subtropical cloud feedbacks on climate
sensitivity, and reduce the large uncertainty in
GCM simulations of these feedbacks:
Diagnose in detail the reasons for different behavior
of NCAR vs. GFDL low cloud distribution with
2xCO2
Try to constrain the relevant cloud feedbacks using
current and historical data, especially the low
cloud feedbacks relevant to (1).
Improve relevant GCM parameterizations using best
available physics, focusing especially on cloud
microphysics, shallow and deep cumulus
convection, and cloud-topped PBLs.
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Ocean Eddy Mixed-Layer
Interactions CPT
Lead PI: Raffaele Ferrari (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
Goals - 1) to gain a better understanding of the effect of transient eddy motions in
the upper ocean and their impact on ocean-atmosphere interactions, 2) to develop
parameterizations of these effects for IPCC-class climate models based on the
knowledge acquired from recent observations and numerical studies
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Examine the statistics of mesoscale eddy fluxes in the upper ocean from existing
SeaSoar profiles, moored data and meteorological data
Run a hierarchy of numerical models of increasing complexity to study the
interaction between mean ocean circulation, the lateral eddy transports and the
boundary layer turbulence in the upper ocean
Develop new parameterizations of mesoscale transports which incorporate
knowledge gained from the observations and process studies
Implement and test the new parameterizations in ocean GCMs and in coupled O-A
models
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Deep Ocean Gravity Current
Entrainment CPT
Lead PI: Sonya Legg (Princeton University/GFDL)
Goal - to use knowledge gained from recent observations of dense overflows and
laboratory and numerical process studies to improve representation of dense gravity
currents and their entrainment in climate models.
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Examine the entrainment in recent observations, especially those of Denmark
Straits overflow, Faroe Bank Channel, Mediterranean Outflow, Red Sea Overflow
and Antarctic Slope overflows, as well as laboratory and numerical process studies
Develop new and enhanced parameterizations of entrainment which incorporate
knowledge gained from the observations and process studies
Implement and test the new parameterizations in ocean GCMs
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US CLIVAR Climate Model Evaluation
Project (CMEP)
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US CLIVAR recommended that NSF, NOAA, NASA, and DOE have a
program to evaluate US coupled climate model simulations of 19th and
20th century
61 proposals submitted - 19 funded
List of awards and abstract found at: www.usclivar.org/science.html
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CMEP IPCC AR4 Workshop in Hawaii…over 150 international participants
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US CLIVAR Interagency Group
David Legler (Director, US CLIVAR Project Office)
Cathy Stephens (Staff Associate, US CLIVAR Project Office)
Don Anderson, NASA
Anjuli Bamzai, DOE
Jay Fein, NSF
Jin Huang, NOAA
Eric Itsweire, NSF
Ming Ji, NOAA
Mike Johnson, NOAA
Eric Lindstrom, NASA
Jim Todd, NOAA
US CLIVAR IAG meets every month on average.
Peter Schultz (US Climate Change Science Program Office Coordinator) serves as the
interface between the Climate Variability and Change (CVC) Interagency Working Group and
the US CLIVAR IAG
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CVP and the NOAA Strategic
Planning Process
Understand Climate Variability and Change to Enhance Society’s Ability
to Plan and Respond
OUTCOMES
1. A predictive understanding of the global climate
system on time scales of weeks to decades with
quantified uncertainties sufficient for making
informed and reasoned decisions
2. Climate-sensitive sectors and the climateliterate public effectively incorporating NOAA’s
climate products into their plans and decisions
Observations &
Analysis
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Climate Forcing
Predictions &
Projections
Climate &
Ecosystems
Regional
Decision Support
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Functional Structure of Predictions and Projections Program
(Seasonal to Interannual Component Shown) - DRAFT
New and Improved Products
Operational Forecasts: SI (PM-CPI)
Information Products
Test Bed - transition to operations
Systematic Research forecasts and applications (Research PMs)
•establish systematic research multi-model SI prediction activity
•establish multi-model Hydrological prediction system
• Routine Attribution reports
•Test application models – drought, fire, water
• Improve consolidation tools
Multi-model-based hypothesis testing – predictability studies
•Predictability studies
•Experimental predictions
•Studies supporting process research
•Data Distribution capability
Process research, hypothesis testing and diagnostic studies
•Targeted efforts for improving climate models (CPTs, parameterizations,…)
•Field experiments in support of model improvements & CPTs
•global tropical interactions with new focus on Indo-Pacific and Atlantic regions
•Monsoon related studies
•Emerging applications (coastal ecosystems; air quality; fisheries,…)
Model & Data Assimilation System
Development – in Environmental
Modeling Program
Observations, reanalyses, forcings research
US CLIVAR Summit - August 2005
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Following the US CLIVAR Summit meeting in August 2005, a
revised framework for the US CLIVAR organization is being
implemented
This reorganization will allow U.S. CLIVAR to
• a) carefully plan, implement, and coordinate activities that are
more responsive to research agency and US CCSP strategic
objectives
• b) stimulate a balanced climate research agenda that includes
improving our understanding, prediction capabilities, and
linkages to users of climate information and iii) engage the
wider scientific community in pursuit of CLIVAR objectives.
This reorganization helps U.S. CLIVAR address more directly
NOAA’s strategic needs. Several NOAA employees (GFDL, CDC
and NCEP) are participating now as US CLIVAR Panel members.
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Phenomena, Observations
and Synthesis Panel
Co-Chairs: Sumant Nigam (Maryland) and John Marshall (MIT)
Goals
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Advance understanding of coherent variability in present and future climate
Improve and develop data for climate studies
Sustain and improve the Global Climate Observing System
Assess the role of the Indian Ocean in global climate
Improve surface fluxes
Assess processes controlling rapid climate shifts
Other members: Jim Carton (Maryland), Dave Easterling (NCDC), Sarah Gille (SIO),
Dave Gutzler (UNM), Gabriel Lau (GFDL), Dimitris Menemenlis (NASA), Walt Robinson
(Illinois), Sig Schubert (NASA), Eli Tziperman (Harvard)
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Predictability, Prediction and
Applications Interface Panel
Co-Chairs: Lisa Goddard (IRI) and Alex Hall (UCLA)
Goals
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Foster improved practices in the provision, validation, and uses of climate
information and forecasts through coordinated participation within U.S. and
international climate science and applications communities.
Further fundamental understanding of climate predictability at time scales
from seasonal to centennial
Improve prediction of droughts, climate extremes and changes in extreme
weather events
Improve prediction of monsoon systems
Enable use of CLIVAR science for decision support
Other members: Tom Delworth (GFDL), Marty Hoerling (CDC), Wayne Higgens (NCEP),
Ben Kirtman (COLA), Randy Koster (NASA), Simon Mason (IRI), Nate Mantua (UW),
Jerry Meehl (NCAR), Kelly Redmond (DRI), Gavin Schmidt (NASA)
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Process Studies and Model
Improvement Panel
Co-Chairs: Meghan Cronin (PMEL) and Paul Schopf (GMU)
Goals
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Reduce major systematic errors and biases and uncertainties in GCMs
used for climate variability prediction and climate change projection
Use process studies to quantify climatically important processes and to
provide guidance for extending long-term in situ and satellite observations
Ensure that process studies lead to climate model improvement
Facilitate collaborations with other national and international partners such
as international CLIVAR, GEWEX, OCCC.
Other members: Raffaele Ferrari (MIT), Jim Hack (NCAR), Dick Johnson (CSU), Terry
Joyce (WHOI), Bill Large (NCAR), Sonya Legg (Princeton), Hua Lu Pan (NCEP), Ken
Sperber (Livermore), Shang-Ping Xie (UH)
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Pacific Upwelling and Mixing
Physics (PUMP)
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Designed to improve our understanding
of the complex of mechanisms that
connect the thermocline to the surface in
the equatorial Pacific cold tongue.
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The goal is to observe and understand
the interaction of upwelling and mixing
with each other and with the larger-scale
equatorial current system.
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The outcome of PUMP will be
advancements in our ability to diagnose
and model both the mean state of the
coupled climate system in the tropics and
its interannual and interdecadal variability.
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Tropical Atlantic Climate
Experiment (TACE)
Goal
To advance the understanding of
coupled ocean-atmosphere
processes and improve climate
prediction for the Tropical Atlantic
region
The proposed observing system components include: continuation of PIRATA moorings, PIRATA extensions
along 23W and 5-10E, equatorial subsurface moorings along 23E and 10W, island meteorological and tide
gauge stations, enhanced float/drifter coverage in the eastern TA, repeated atmospheric sounding along 23W,
XBT lines, and selected glider transects.
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