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World Climate Research Programme
2006, 2007 and beyond
Valery Detemmerman
Joint Planning Staff
World Climate Research Programme
2006 – an interesting year
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Many activities, significant progress
– Ocean activities (reported by others)
– Regional activities, e.g. AMMA, La Plata
Basin
– IPCC input, archive, regional analyses
– Input to SBSTA, UNFCC
– New communications strategy
WCRP Strategic Framework
2005-2015
Facilitate analysis and prediction…for
use in….applications of direct ..value
to society
 How to implement?
 Cross-cutting activities
 Networking survey
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JSC-approved cross cuts
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Anthropogenic climate change (with IGBP)
Atmospheric chemistry and climate
Seasonal prediction
Decadal predictability
Monsoons
Climate and its extremes
International Polar Year
New way of doing business
WCRP core projects to manage cross
cuts
 Shared activities with IGBP
 Reduced central resources
 ICSU review
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CLIVAR “future look”
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SSG 14 legacy discussions
Workshop/conf series to establish state of
art and future needs
– Barcelona, June07 – seasonal prediction
– Hamburg Aug 07 – natural modes of variabilty
and ACC
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Manage cross cuts – extremes & monsoons
with GEWEX; decadal predictability
SSG 15 – Geneva, Sept07, decide how to
implement
CLIVAR presentation to
JSC-28
A proposed new way of doing business
Tim Palmer, Howard Cattle,
and Jim Hurrell
CLIVAR SSG-14 - Buenos Aires,
April 2006
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Sought development of CLIVAR “Forward Look”
against science themes of ENSO/TV, Monsoons,
Decadal/THC, ACC, Role of Oceans in Climate,
Global Modeling & Prediction.
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Was organized around a series of miniassessments of current status of each themes.
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Background of sponsor/context setting WCRP,
IOC, WMO, IGBP
CLIVAR “Forward Look” - key aims by 2013
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Establish basis for seamless prediction with practical
demonstrations of utility.
Significant reduction in systematic model errors/biases for
seasonal prediction across the globe leading to systematic
improvements in prediction skill.
Progressive transition of monsoon prediction systems from
research or experimental status to operational systems, with
increased skill and relevance to applications.
Establish experimental decadal prediction using initializationbase approaches as a key legacy of CLIVAR
Improved initialization procedures for predictive models
across all timescales
With OOPC, evaluate the current state and development
vector of the global ocean observing system aiming for a
system which is fully sustained and providing key inputs to
prediction services
CLIVAR “Forward Look” - key aims by 2013
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Development of consistent ocean synthesis/reanalysis
datasets using ocean data assimilation techniques
Sustained monitoring of the MOC; improved
understanding of the mechanisms of MOC variability
and climate system impacts
Evaluation of the role of modes of variability in ACC
and how climate change impacts them, providing
significant input to climate assessments
Systematic development of Earth System models
(through WGCM/IGBP AIMES)
Evaluation of the importance of new feedbacks in
climate change predictions with Earth System models
through WGCM/IGBP AIMES
Watch this space
Thank you