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Beyond 2013
www.clivar.org
CLIVAR Imperatives
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Anthropogenic Climate Change
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Decadal Variability, Predictability and Prediction
Intraseasonal and Seasonal Predictability and Prediction
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Improved Atmosphere and Ocean Components of ESMs
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Data Synthesis and Analysis
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Ocean Observing System
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Capacity Building
Decadal variability & predictability
− First attempts already underway
− Decadal prediction part of CMIP5 protocol
– Joint design by
WCRP/WGCM/WGSIP/CLIVAR sub group
− Opportunities for diagnostic sub-projects
−CLIVAR Workshop
−Atlantic Panel coordination of activities to
monitor the Atlantic MOC
Anthropogenic Climate Change
− Realize long-term CMIP5 climate change integrations under
WGCM/AIMES joint planning.
− Promote analysis of CMIP5 though diagnostic sub projects.
− Explore regional change through CLIVAR regional panels.
Climate extremes
– CLIVAR with GEWEX focused WCRP activity on drought: Drought
Implementation Group (to be reported on by GEWEX)
−WMO CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM ETCCDI continued development of global indices
data base and analysis through capacity-building workshops and input to
IPCC
− WGCM: analysis of extremes in higher resolution decadal prediction
simulations
Priorities Over the Next 5+ years
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Develop and Strengthen Interactions with
Ocean Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Communities
Develop and strengthen existing links with IMBER,
PICES, SIBER (INDIAN OCEAN), IOCCP
 Joint targeted workshops
 Develop ocean carbon aspects of ocean synthesis
activities (WGCM with IGBP AIMES/WGOMD; GSOP
 Strengthen SSG in this area
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Ocean Model Development
• Improved Ocean Models (WGOMD)
− Key to achieving CLIVAR/WCRP goals for ocean analysis, seasonal
and decadal prediction and anthropogenic climate change
WGOMD: Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE)
CORE-I Results: Multi-century simulations with a 500
year repeat annual cycle forcing (Large & Yeager 2004,
2008): Griffies et al., 2009: Coordinated Ocean-ice
Reference Experiments (COREs) Ocean Modelling
CORE-II underway – flexible design:
CLIVAR/WCRP Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM)
Major future plans/activities
Focus & priorities over the next 5+ years:
Near term (next 30 years) :
• Decadal prediction
- initialisation of coupled models
- factors that provide decadal predictability
• Regional information & extremes
- high resolution models (~ 50 km)
- short-lived species (aerosols, chemistry..)
Longer term (mid-century to 2100+)
• Climate sensitivity
- radiative forcing
- physical feedbacks (e.g. clouds)
• Carbon-climate feedbacks
- 1st generation of Earth System Models
- interactive carbon cycle and vegetation
-intermediate resolution (~ 200 km)
Evaluation & Understanding:
• Evaluation of OAGCMs
- better definition of model outputs
- bridge to observations and processes
• Narrowing of the gap between modeling and
understanding
- hierarchy of model experiments
- sensitivity & idealized experiments
Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (WGSIP)
Major future plans/activities
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CHFP Participation and Analysis
– Increase visibility of CHFP (climate system historical forecast
experiment)
– Increase regional capacity through training on the use of CHFP data for
application: IAI Training Institute on the Use of Seasonal Predictions for
Applications in Latin America 02 – 13 August, 2010 - Buenos Aires,
Argentina
– Assessment of climate models in seasonal forecast mode
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CMIP5 Near Term Experiments Coordinated Analysis
Initialization, Predictability,Multi-mode combination, Skill --> Internal variability v.
external forcing
Priorities Over the Next 5+ years
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Seasonal (and Longer-Term) Prediction
− Facilitate completion of key process studies and
enhanced observing system campaigns
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Improve prediction of key tropical modes (ENSO, TAV)