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The Large-Scale Climate Datasets Ghassem R. Asrar Director, World Climate Research Programme Genva, Switzerland Outline • WCRP at a glance • Earth/climate system partnerships • Large scale climate data sets • Future plans & priorities • Summary Mission & Objectives The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), was established at the first World Climate Conference in 1979, and it is sponsored jointly by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the International Council for Science (ICSU), and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO The major objectives of the WCRP are to: • Determine the predictability of climate, and • Determine the effect of human activities on climate “…for use in an increasing range of practical applications of direct relevance, benefit and value to society.” Partnerships Future Earth: Research for Global Sustainability A 10-year initiative of international scientific collaboration on Earth system research led by ICSU and Belmont Forum International Earth Observing Systems Aura/Aqua/Terra SMOS SORCE TerraSAR-X Envisat QuikScat IKONOS Pleiades Sage CBERS SPOT 4, 5 SeaWiFS SPIN-2 SeaWinds TRMM Orbview 2, 3 DMC SAC-D/Aquarius ACRIMSAT EROS A1 ERBS Radarsat ALOS Grace Toms-EP QuickBird Jason Landsat 7 UARS GOSAT SAC-C © GEO Secretariat COSMO-SkyMed International Ocean Observing Systems 2002 Temperature profiles from merchant ships 2003 ARGO installation Latest data ? 90-00 ? ? Ocean acidity Nitrogen flow ? ? 70-80 50-60 PreInd. WCRP Core Projects WCRP Implementation Plan • The Interdisciplinary Nature of Climate Science – – – – • Meeting the Information Needs of Society Activities in Support of Key Deliverables – – – – – – • Atmosphere, Oceans and Climate Cryosphere and Climate Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Water, Energy and Climate Decadal Climate Variability, Predictability and Prediction Sea-Level Variability and Change Climate/Weather Extremes Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics Centennial Climate Change Projections Seasonal Climate Prediction Capabilities in Support of WCRP Integrating Themes – – – Climate-Quality Data Sets and Analyses A New Generation of Climate/Earth System Models Next Generation of Climate Experts: Developing Capacity Regionally and Globally A network of several thousands scientists contributing on voluntary basis. Example: Major Climate Prediction & Projection Experiments Climate-system Historical Forecast Project - CHFP Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment – CORDEX IPCC AR5 Arctic Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 – CMIP5 IPCC AR5 Chemistry-Climate Model Validation Africa Antarctic Improving Climate Projections: CMIP-5 Global-mean near-surface temperature anomalies in simulations with all natural and anthropogenic forcings (red line), and with the anthropogenic aerosol forcing alone (black line), in one of the CMIP5 models. (from Boucher et al, 2011) Permissible emissions as simulated by a CMIP5 model (HadGEM2-ES) compared with observed CO2 emissions for the historical period and those projected for the RCP scenarios (OBS/IAMs) (from Friedlingstein and Jones, 2011) 5-9 March 2012 – CMIP-5 Analysis Workshop Scientific Assessments Assessment of Ozone Depletion/Recove ry-2010 The shaded areas in panels (c)-(e) came from CCMVal based on sophisticated statistical analysis of model variability and trends. In past Assessments, estimates of model uncertainties were limited! Skillful Regional Climate Information CORDEX •12 domains with a resolution of 0.44° (approx. 50x50km²) •First Focus on Africa •High resolution ~0.11°x0.11° for Europe (by some institutions) Courtesy of C. Jones July to September mean precipitation for 19982008. Four observational (top row), accumulated 12-24 hour forecast from ERAInterim reanalysis, the ensemble mean and individual Regional Climate Models Intercomparison of ModelsObservations Coordinated with CMIP5 are parallel efforts to collect and make available observationally-based products Obs4MIPs Obs4MIPs is a pilot effort to improve the connection between data experts and scientists involved in climate model evaluation. It is closely aligned with CMIP5, with encouragement from the WGCM and WGNE. NASA and the U.S. DOE have initiated the project with significant contributions of appropriate NASA products. An overarching goal is to enable other data communities to contribute data to Obs4MIPs. Reanalysis of Observations To enhance access to re-analyses products, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center is hosting a subset of the primary reanalysis data on the ESGF Portal in a similar format to the CMIP5 archive. This portal is managed by the NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS). Participating organizations and products are; • • • • • NASA-GSFC-GMAO/ MERRA NOAA-NCEP/ CFSR ECMWF/ ECMWF – Interim JMA/ JRA – 25 NOAA ESRL - CIRES/ 20CR Earth System Grid Federation CMIP5 and CORDEX products are being served via a distributed archive managed by the PCMDI-led Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) Data Nodes (at major international climate research centers) Data Nodes (at major international climate research centers) Three Primary CMIP5 Data Portals) Three Primary Data Portals) BADC Data Portal DKRZ Data Portal • Node 1 Node 3 Node 2 PCMDI Data Portal Local copy of heavilyused data Node 5 Node 4 Data Portal Avoid single point failure Data Users (climate model analysts worldwide) • Replication of heavily-used datasets • Data can be made available readily and can be corrected locally. Model & expt. documentation Earth System Grid Federation: Unprecedented International Coordination CMIP5 participating groups (20+ groups; ~40 models). 2.3Pbytes of model output expected 100 times greater than CMIP3. Model outputs will be accessed through the Earth System Grid - data will be served by federated centers around the world and will appear to be a single PCMDI archive. The archive is available to all users, except commercial applications.. WCRP Grand Science Challenges • Provision of skillful regional climate information (includes decadal and polar predictability) • Regional Sea-Level Variability and Change • Cryosphere response to climate change (including ice sheets, water resources, permafrost and carbon) • The interactions of clouds, aerosols, precipitation, and radiation and their contributions to climate sensitivity • Past and future changes in water availability (with connections to water security and hydrological cycle) • The prediction and attribution of extreme events Stakeholders and User Perspective • Urgent need for “actionable” climate information based on sound science • The need for “symbiotic” relationship between providers and users of climate information to ensure climate information is timely, accessible, easy to understand • Urgent need for training and development of “next generation” of scientists and decision makers who pursue and promote the use of actionable climate/environmental information Seamless Prediction of Earth System Ice sheets atmospheric chemistry moisture land ocean atmosphere region 1day Fronts Convec systems skin vegetation upper full global 1week 1month 1season 1year Cyclones Blocks MJO ENSO 1 decade QBO NAO 1 century PDO AMO Courtesy of UK MetOffice Month – Seasons: The North Atlantic Oscillation Positive NAO phase Negative NAO phase Autocorrelation 1950 3-month running mean of 1967 NAO index 1950-date 1984 30d 2001 Lag Natural Decadal Variability Model Pacific Decadal Oscillation Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Knight et al 2005, Parker et al 2007 Observation Prediction Skill on 1-10 Year Timescale Heat in top 100m ocean: Improvement in Skill from initialisation UK JWCRP 1-2y 3-4y 5-6y Hindcast predictions of 500m heat content in Atlantic sub-polar gyre June 1991 Courtesy of UK MetOffice June 1995 June 2001 Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) Two Major Thrusts: •Building Research Capacity in Developing Regions •Empower Next Generation of Climate Scientists Plans and Priorities: •Engaging regional experts in climate research, modeling analysis •Promoting scientific exchange •Train the Trainers •Summer Schools •Fellowships and Scholarships •Mentoring Programs Summary Opportunities and Challenges; Quantify and communicate uncertainties in climate change information/knowledge; • Develop seamless regional and intera-seasonal to inter-annual, and decadal climate prediction/projection; • Support development of climate information for adaptation planning, mitigation policies, and assessing risks of climate variability and change; • Support development, intercomparing and dcoumenting large scale data sets; • Promote and enable timely, reliable, and easy to access climate information and knowledge; and • Support education, training and development of next generation of climate experts and regional networks.