Download World Climate Research Programme 33nd Session Joint Scientific

WCRP Overview
Two Problems in Climate Risk Management
1. Uncertainty in the projected impacts
The British, he thought, must be gluttons for satire:
even the weather forecast seemed to be some kind
of spoof, predicting every possible combination of
weather for the next twenty-four hours without
actually committing itself to anything specific.
David John Lodge, Changing Places
It is in the very nature of probability that
improbable things will happen.
Aristotle, Rhetoric
Different types of uncertainty
Imprecision
Problem:
not knowing what the exact outcome will be
Solution:
indicate probabilities
Second-order uncertainty
Problem:
not knowing what the exact probabilities should be
Solution:
indicate probability ranges
Intractability
Problem:
not knowing how to estimate the probabilities at all
Solution:
dialogue; don’t pretend to imprecision; identify tractable problems
Two Problems in Climate Risk Management
2. Good use of knowledge of uncertainty
"Five to one against and falling..." she said, "four to
one against and falling...three to
one...two...one...probability factor of one to
one...we have normality, I repeat we have
normality." She turned her microphone off — then
turned it back on, with a slight smile and
continued: "Anything you still can’t cope with is
therefore your own problem.“
Douglas Adams, A Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy
DRR and Research
The role of research is to:
1. Reduce the level and degree of uncertainty by improvements
in:
• Accuracy
What is going to happen?
• Saliency
Why should I care?
2. Identify how the uncertain information can be used to inform
decision-making.
What can I do about it?
Decision-making across timescales
Mission
World Climate Research Programme supports climaterelated decision making and planning adaptation to climate
change by coordinating research required to improve:
(1) climate predictions and
(2) our understanding of human influence on climate
“for use in an increasing range of practical applications of direct
relevance, benefit and value to society”
(WCRP Strategic Framework 2005-2015).
Main foci of WCRP research
• Observing changes in the components of the Earth system and in
the interfaces among these components;
• Improving our knowledge and understanding of global and regional
climate variability and change, and of the mechanisms responsible
for this change;
• Assessing and attributing significant trends in global and regional
climates;
• Developing and improving numerical models that are capable of
simulating and assessing the climate system for a wide range of
space and time scales;
• Investigating the sensitivity of the climate system to natural and
human-induced forcing and estimating the changes resulting from
specific disturbing influences.
WCRP Grand Challenges
• Provision of skillful regional climate information
• Sea-Level Change and its regional implications
• Cryosphere response to climate change
• The role of clouds, aerosols, precipitation, and radiation in
climate sensitivity
• Water availability and distribution in a changing climate
• Science foundation for prediction and attribution of extreme
events
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Major WCRP Climate Prediction
& Projection Experiments
Coupled Model Intercomparison
Experiment 5 – CMIP5
IPCC AR5
Climate-system Historical
Forecast Project - CHFP
sea ice,
stratosphere
Coordinated Regional Downscaling
Experiment – CORDEX
IPCC AR5
Arctic
Chemistry-Climate Model
Validation
Africa
Antarctic
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GEWEX Science Question 3
• How does a warming world affect climate extremes, and
especially droughts, floods and heat waves?
• How well are models able to handle extremes and how can
we improve their capability?
• How well do models simulate the characteristics (distribution,
amount, intensity, frequency, duration, type) of precipitation
– with particular emphasis on extremes of droughts and
floods?
• How can the phenomena responsible for extremes be better
simulated in models?
Drought Interest Group
Open group; Formed in 2008 to:
– Identify and leverage current drought research activities
already underway within WCRP
– Assess the missing links in drought research and
coordinate drought research at an international level
Currently over 40 DIG members. Consult with a much wider
community:
2011 white paper on:
Drought Predictability and Prediction in a Changing Climate:
Assessing Current Predictive Knowledge and Capabilities, User
Requirements and Research Priorities
Climate reports
Important climate monitoring
product. Provides a more
frequent update than the IPCC
Assessment Reports.
Scientific inputs to IPCC syntheses
Conferences
Africa Climate Conference
Helping to set the priorities for climate research in Africa and
putting climate knowledge into the hands of end-users
The WCRP Conference for Latin America and the Caribbean,
Developing, Linking, and Applying Climate Knowledge
International Conference on
Regional Climate - CORDEX 2013
DRR and Research
The role of research is to:
1. Reduce the level and degree of uncertainty by improvements
in:
• Accuracy
What is going to happen?
• Saliency
Why should I care?
2. Identify how the uncertain information can be used to inform
decision-making.
What can I do about it?