Download 7.1 - WMO

World Climate Research Programme
Moving Towards Future
WCRP Progress and Plans
Ghassem R. Asrar
Mission & Objectives
World Climate Research Programme
coordinates climate research, modeling and
analysis to improve;
(1) climate predictions and
(2) our understanding of human influence on
climate
“for use in an increasing range of practical
applications of direct relevance, benefit and
value to society” (WCRP Strategic Framework
2005-2015).
Major Events
Intermediate-term Plan
Sponsors’ Plans and Planning
- World Climate Conference-3
- OceanObs2009
- ICSU Visioning
Long-term Strategy
WCRP Implementation Plan
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The Interdisciplinary Nature of Climate Science
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Atmosphere, Oceans and Climate
Cryosphere and Climate
Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics
Water, Energy and Climate
Meeting the Information Needs of Society
Activities in Support of Key Deliverables
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Decadal Variability, Predictability and Prediction
Sea-Level Variability and Change
Climate Extremes
Atmospheric Chemistry and Dynamics
Centennial Climate Change Projections
Seasonal Climate Prediction
Activities in Support of WCRP Integrating Themes
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Climate-Quality Data Sets and Analyses
A New Generation of Climate System Models
Next Generation of Climate Experts: Developing Capacity Regionally and Globally
WCC-3 Conference Statement
• Great recognition of scientific progress made through
WCRP and its associated activities
• Call for major strengthening of observations and research
Support the development
of the Global Framework
for Climate Services
WCC3 – Expert Segment
Called for major strengthening of the essential elements of a global
framework for climate services:
 The Global Climate Observing System and all its components and
associated activities; and provision of free and unrestricted exchange
and access to climate data;
 The World Climate Research Programme, underpinned by
adequate computing resources and increased interaction with other
global climate relevant research initiatives.
 Climate services information systems taking advantage of
enhanced existing national and international climate service
arrangements in the delivery of products, including sector-oriented
information to support adaptation activities;
 Climate user interface mechanisms focussed on building linkages
and integrating information, at all levels, between the providers and
users of climate services; and
 Efficient and enduring capacity building through education, training,
and strengthened outreach and communication.
Conference Objective
“Ocean Information for society: sustaining the
benefits, realizing the potential”
Strengthen and enhance the international
framework under GCOS, GOOS, WCRP, IGBP
and supporting regional and national
frameworks for sustained world ocean observing
and information systems supporting the needs of
society about ocean weather, climate,
ecosystems, carbon and chemistry
Earth System Visioning
ICSU 29th General Assembly (Maputo, October 2008)
“to note that Committee on Scientific
Planning Review (CSPR) is planning to
organize a consultation, including a highlevel meeting, with relevant partners to
outline options for an overall framework
for global environmental change research
and its policy relevance, once the reviews
of IGBP and WCRP are completed.”
DRAFT: Grand Challenges in Global Sustainability
A Systems Approach to Research Priorities for the
Decade
• Challenge #1: Substantially improve the utility and reduce the
uncertainty associated with regional forecasts of future
environmental conditions and their consequences for people.
• Challenge #2: Develop the observation systems needed to manage
global environmental change.
• Challenge #3: Determine how to anticipate, avoid and cope with
dangerous global environmental change.
• Challenge #4: Develop institutional and governance arrangements
that can ensure global sustainability.
• Challenge #5: Develop and evaluate innovative responses to
achieve global sustainability.
Deliberation
• World Climate Conference-3, OceanObs ‘09,
acknowledge WCRP past contributions and identify
challenges and opportunities for the future.
• Need for more flexibility/agility to respond to
expanding climate information needs:
• At regional scale
• For key sectors of global economy
• For impacts, adaptation, vulnerability,
mitigation and risk assessment.
Future Directions
JSC-31: Major Topics
WCRP Visioning: Long-term functions and
structure of the WCRP
Role of climate research, in particular,
WCRP, within the Global Framework for
Climate Services and ICSU Global
Sustainability Research Program
WCRP Long-term Functions/Structure
JSC -31 discussions on coordination of;
Observations and analysis
Model development, evaluation and
experiments
Processes and understanding
Climate Information/applications &
education
WCRP Long-term Functions/Structure
Observations & Analysis
Form an Observations & Analysis Council
• Communicate and coordinate with GCOS, WMO,… on
observations requirements for climate research;
• Advocate and advise on standards, ensure data
availability, identify data needs,…
• Catalyze interactions between observation and modelling
communities
• Enable production, documentation and inter-comparison
of CDRs/EDRs
Maintain existing structures (AOPC, OOPC, TOPC..)
for disciplinary data stewardship, but greater
emphasis on re-analyses and use of observations.
WCRP Long-term Functions/Structure
Modelling
Formation of a Modeling Council
• Coordination among WCRP modeling groups
• Promote/support seamless approach and Earth
system framework (communication platform w/
WWRP, IGBP, other partners)
• Reports to the Joint Scientific Committee
Maintain WGCM, WGSIP, WGNE until further
discussion by Modelling Council
WCRP Long-term Functions/Structure
Processes & Understanding
Three types of process studies identified
• To test and evaluate models
• To study underlying phenomena
• Overarching, often with regional focus
JSC-31 consensus
• Core projects, with JSC oversight, to manage
process studies, better coordination across
Projects
• Regional issues to be dealt with within Projects
Education& Training
Sponsor participation of early career scientists and graduate
students in WCRP scientific and technical meetings
50 Students/post-docs this year attending five major workshops.
200+ students/post-docs to attend the WCRP Open Science Conference.
Facilitate participation of national and regional climate experts in
international climate research, analyses and assessments
Training Institute for 50 particiantson the use of seasonal climate prediction for
applications in Latin America, Buenos Aires Argentina, August 2010.
Sponsor regional climate information analysis and model evaluation
workshops
CORDEX regional climate model evaluation and analysis in Africa, Asia, South and
Central America,…
Support climate science-policy and science-sector specific dialogues
With START, UNEP, WMO and European Commission funding, to
facilitate dialogue between scientists and decision makers in East and West
Africa, and South Asia on issues related to climate change vulnerability,
adaptation and risk assessment.
Summary
WCRP Research Priorities Include;
Quantify and communicate uncertainties in climate
change information/knowledge;
• Focus on regional and interannual to seasonal, and
decadal climate prediction/projection;
• Address information needs for adaptation planning,
mitigation strategies, and assessing risks of climate
variability and change
• Promote and enable timely, reliable, and easy to
access climate information and knowledge.
WCRP Open Science Conference
24-28 October 2011
Denver, Colorado, USA
http://conference2011.wcrp-climate.org
Climate Research in Service to Society
WCRP Requirements for Observations
• Coordinated collection, analysis and reanalysis of climate
observations are essential for describing the structure and
variability of the climate system.
• Special efforts will be required to obtain, analyse and assimilate
data from the new generation of environmental satellites.
• In addition to the longer-term data for climate monitoring and
analysis of time-dependent variations, there will be a need to
collect, analyze and archive high spatial and temporal resolution
data of physical variables and chemical constituents using in
situ as well as remote-sensing methods.
• A commitment is required for the progressive, coordinated,
ongoing analyses and periodic reanalyses of observations,
which are necessary to incorporate lessons from new
measurements and research.
WCRP Requirements for Observations, cont’d
• A major concern is the development and improvement of climate
data records (CDRs) which can be used for studies and
assessments of climate variability and change, such as for
IPCC. Particular concerns for which there are activities
underway include:
– Continuity and homogeneity of observations, especially from
space.
– The need for reprocessing of records in a coordinated way
and with agreement on algorithms, and comprehensive
validation, evaluation and assessment of results.
– The need for reanalysis to produce global gridded fields.
WCRP Support to GCOS
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Advocate improved observations and analysis suitable for
climate (satisfying the GCOS Climate Monitoring Principles
that are designed to ensure continuity of record)
Data set development: evaluating observations and promoting
their reprocessing and reanalysis into global fields. Develop
new products and datasets.
Continue to carry out studies on mechanisms and modes of
variability that have contributed to observed climate
anomalies.
Promote improved data assimilation and analysis.
Provide advice on best datasets for various purposes
(climatologies and time series) and their merits and
limitations.
Help improve and promote sound data stewardship, including
data archiving, management, and access.