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CLIMATE CHANGE AND
FOOD SYSTEMS
Global assessments and
implications for food security
and trade
Edited by
Aziz Elbehri
FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS
ROME, 2015
Recommended citation:
FAO 2015. Climate change and food systems: global assessments and
implications for food security and trade. Food Agriculture Organization of the
United Nations (FAO)
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ii
CONTENTS
Contributing authors
ix
Forewordxi
Prefacexiii
Acronymsxv
CCHAPTER 1 Climate change, food security and trade: An overview of global assessments
and policy insights
Aziz Elbehri, Joshua Elliott and Tim Wheeler
1
A. PART 1: Climate change impact modelling -current status and future direction
2
A1.Robust results from existing climate change impact studies
A2. Current modelling challenges
A3. Future research areas
2
6
7
B. PART 2: Critical issues at the interface of climate and food security
10
B1. Climate and nutrition: Improving analysis of climate-nutrition-health links
B2. Climate and water: Growing need for systematic climate-food-water analysis
B3. Climate mitigation and food security: Co-benefits versus trade-offs
B4. Climate and trade: Understanding the trends and tackling trade-offs
B5. Climate and poverty: Mainstreaming adaptation into development
10
11
12
13
14
C. PART 3: Policy messages, communication and the need for two-way science-policy dialogue
15
C1. Matching evidence on climate impacts to the needs of policy-makers
C2. Policy insights on climate change impacts under uncertainty
C3. Harmonizing climate and trade policy
C4. Recommendations for structured science-policy dialogue
15
17
18
19
iii
CCHAPTER 2 The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison: Approaches, insights
and caveats for modelling climate change impacts on agriculture at the global scale
Christoph Müller and Joshua Elliott
28
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
6.4
6.5
6.6
6.7
7.
30
30
30
31
33
33
34
34
38
39
40
41
42
42
43
44
45
46
Rationale
Biophysical models to assess climate change impacts on agricultural productivity
2.1 Crops and weather
2.2 Model types
Challenges for global-scale modelling
3.1 Global consistency vs. data scarcity
Recent advances in global-scale crop modelling
4.1 Global-scale impacts
4.2 Focus regions of climate change impacts
4.3 Inter-sectoral interaction
The Global Gridded Crop Model intercomparison
Open questions
6.1 Model evaluation and validation
6.2Management
6.3 Effects of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations
Future challenges: Representative agricultural pathways
Future challenges: Drought and climate extremes
Future challenges: Connecting with field-scale assessments
Future challenges: Informing economic assessment with biophysical climate change
impact studies
Conclusions
46
47
CCHAPTER 3 Economic modelling of climate impacts and adaptation in agriculture:
A survey of methods, results and gaps
iv
Aziz Elbehri and Mary Burfisher
60
1. Introduction
2. Defining climate adaptation: Analytical perspective
3. Global climate models
4. Pathway models
4.1 Crop yield models
4.2 Water-climate pathway models
4.3 Other pathway models
5. Economic models
5.1 Market- and sector-level models
5.2 Farm- and household-level models
6.Conclusions
62
63
66
71
71
76
79
80
80
89
CCHAPTER 4 An overview of climate change impact on crop production and its variability in
Europe, related uncertainties and research challenges
Reimund Rötter and Jukka Höhn
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Introduction
1.1 Background and objectives
1.2 Climate change projections for Europe
Climate change impact assessment methodology for agriculture
2.1 Different approaches to assessment
2.2 Major shortcomings
2.3 Recent progress
2.4 Current use of crop simulation for assessing effects of climate and adaptation
Selected impacts for key crops and regions
3.1 Production trends - past and near future projections
3.2 Future shifts in production possibilities (suitability)
3.3 Projections of relative crop yield change under future climate scenarios
3.4 Projections of future crop production potential (yields and suitability)
3.5 Potential implications for trade and food security
Discussion of uncertainties
Recommendations for improving impact assessment 106
108
108
109
113
113
116
118
119
121
121
123
123
129
130
132
134
CCHAPTER 5 Climate change impact on key crops in Africa: Using crop models and general
equilibrium models to bound the predictions
Timothy Thomas and Mark Rosegrant
1.
2.
3.
4.
Introduction
1.1Population
1.2Income
1.3Agriculture
Climate and climate models
2.1Precipitation
2.2Temperature
DSSAT Crop Model Results
3.1 Rainfed maize
3.2 All crops
Impact model results
4.1 Maize
4.2Sorghum
4.3 All crops
4.4Malnutrition
146
148
150
150
150
150
150
155
156
158
161
165
165
166
170
171
v
CCHAPTER 6 Global climate change, food supply and livestock production systems:
A bioeconomic analysis
Petr Havlík, David Leclère, Hugo Valin, Mario Herrero, Erwin Schmid,
Jean-Francois Soussana, Christoph Müller and Michael Obersteiner
176
1. Introduction
2. Methodology
2.1 Climate scenarios
2.2 Biophysical impact modelling
2.3 Economic impact modelling
3. Results
3.1 Livestock sector developments without climate change
3.2 Climate change impact on livestock markets
3.3 Land management adaptation
3.4 Livestock sector adaptation
4. Conclusions
178
179
179
180
183
187
187
190
193
195
196
CCHAPTER 7 Grain production trends in the Russian Federation, Ukraine and Kazakhstan in the
context of climate change and international trade
Elena Lioubimtseva, Nicolai Dronin and Andrei Kirilenko
210
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
212
218
213
215
210
222
229
Introduction
Historical trends of grain production and trade
2.1 Decline in agriculture in 1991-2001
2.2 Recovery trends in 2002-2013
Short-term weather variability and land dynamics
Impacts of climate change on grain production
Outlooks for grain production and export
Conclusions235
CCHAPTER 8 The potential impact of climate change-induced sea level rise on the global
rice market and food security
vi
Ching-Cheng Chang, Huey-Lin Lee and Shih-Hsun Hsu
246
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
248
249
250
252
260
Introduction
Model and data
Simulation design
Simulation results
Conclusions
CCHAPTER 9 An assessment of global banana production and suitability under climate
change scenarios
German Calberto, Charles Staver and Pablo Siles
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Introduction
Climatic zones suitable for banana production
Climate change impacts through 2070 on areas of climatic zones suitable for banana suitability
Climate change productions for 24 banana-growing areas in Latin America, Africa and Asia
Changes in potential productivity for 24 key banana-growing areas in Latin America, Africa
and Asia for 2030, 2050 and 2070
5.1 Method to estimate banana GDD and TDU
5.2 Method to estimate water deficit in bananas
5.3 Results of calculations GDD, TDU and water deficit
Changes in leaf diseases for six key banana-growing sites in Latin America, Africa and Asia
for 2030, 2050, and 2070
Changes at the margins - potential areas lost and gained for banana production in
2030, 2050 and 2070
Implications of climate change for global banana production
264
266
267
268
270
275
275
280
280
281
285
288
CCHAPTER 10 The role of international trade under a changing climate: Insights from global
economic modelling
Helal Ahammad and colleagues
292
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
294
295
295
297
298
299
300
301
302
304
308
308
Introduction
Modelling international trade
2.1 Modelling trade in a general equilibrium framework
2.2 Modelling trade in a partial equilibrium framework
Trade in agricultural commodities: Recent trends
Description of scenarios
Implications for trade of the “socio-economic and climatic”scenarios
5.1 Agrifood trade in 2050 under scenario S1
5.2 Agrifood trade in 2050: A closer look at model agreement
5.3 Key drivers of trade: Degree of model agreement
5.4 Production-exports nexus: degree of model agreement
Discussion and conclusions
vii
CCHAPTER 11 Climate change impacts on food systems and implications for climate-compatible
food policies
Tim Wheeler
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
viii
Introduction
Climate change
Climate variability and agriculture
Impacts of climate change on food availability
4.1 Global studies of impacts on crop production and yield
4.2 Local, national and regional studies of impacts on crop production and yield
Impacts on food access, utilization and stability
Mitigation and adaptation in the agricultural sector
Understanding and working with uncertainty about climate change impacts on food security
Towards climate-compatible food policies
Conclusions
314
316
317
318
319
321
322
323
326
328
330
330
CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS
Helal AHAMMAD
Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource
Economics and Sciences
Mario HERRERO
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research
Organization, Australia
Elodie BLANC
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Edwina HEYHOE
Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource
Economics and Sciences
Mary BURFISHER
United States Naval Academy and
Purdue University
Jukka HÖHN
Plant Production Research, MTT Agrifood
Research Finland, Finland
German CALBERTO
Bioversity International, Cali, Colombia and CGIAR
Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture
and Food Security (CCAFS)
Shih-Hsun HSU
Department of Agricultural Economics, National
Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan
Ching-Cheng CHANG
Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica,
Taipei, Taiwan
Andrei KIRILENKO
Department of Earth System Science and Policy,
University of North Dakota, USA
Daniel Mason D’CROZ
International Food Policy Research Institute
Page KYLE
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Nicolai DRONIN
School of Geography, Moscow State University,
Russia
David LECLÈRE
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,
Austria
Aziz ELBEHRI
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United
Nations (FAO)
Huey-Lin LEE
Department of Economics, National Chengchi
University, Taipei, Taiwan
Joshua ELLIOTT
University of Chicago Computation Institute, USA
Elena LIOUBIMTSEVA
Geography and Planning Department, Grand Valley
State University, Michigan, USA
Shinichiro FUJIMORI
National Institute for Environmental Studies
Tomoko HASEGAWA
National Institute for Environmental Studies
Petr HAVLIK
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,
Austria
Herman LOTZE-CAMPEN
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
(PIK), Germany
Christoph MÜLLER
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
(PIK), Germany
Gerald NELSON
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
ix
Michael OBERSTEINER
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,
Austria
Mark ROSEGRANT
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
Andrzej TABEAU
LEI Part of Wageningen University;
Reimund RÖTTER
Plant Production Research, MTT Agrifood
Research Finland, Findand
Timothy THOMAS
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
Ronald SANDS
U.S. Department of Agriculture,
Economic Research Service
Hugo VALIN
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,
Austria
Erwin SCHMID
University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences,
Vienna, Austria
Hans VAN MEIJL
LEI Part of Wageningen University;
Christoph SCHMITZ
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
(PIK), Germany
Pablo SILES
CIAT, Nicaragua (previously Bioversity International,
Turrialba, Costa Rica)
Jean-Francois SOUSSANA
French National Institute for Agricultural Research
(INRA), Paris, France
x
Charles STAVER
Bioversity International, Montpellier, France and
CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change,
Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)
Dominique VAN DER MENSBRUGGHE
HE Global Analysis Project, Purdue University;
Martin VON LAMPE
Organization for Economic Co-operation and
Development.
Tim WHEELER
Department of Agriculture, University of Reading,
United Kingdom
FOREWORD
T
he growing threat of climate change to the
global food supply, and the challenges it poses
for food security and nutrition, requires urgent
concerted policy responses and the deployment
of all the scientific knowledge and accumulated
evidence at our disposal. It also requires a
sharper focus on the important drivers of climate
adaptation, including the potential role of trade to
mitigate some of the negative impacts of climate
change on global food production.
Knowledge of climate change impacts on
agriculture has significantly expanded over the
past 20 years. Convergent results are showing
that climate change will fundamentally alter global
food production patterns. Crop productivity
impacts are expected to be negative in lowlatitude and tropical regions but somewhat
positive in high-latitude regions. Adverse climate
impacts on health, including through malnutrition,
are gaining increased attention. Higher carbon
dioxide concentration [CO2] is shown to lower
concentrations of zinc, iron and protein and raise
starch and sugar content in crop plants that use
three-carbon (C3) fixation pathway such as wheat,
rice and soybeans. These findings exacerbate
the malnutrition challenges, including obesity and
nutrition deficits in poor communities.
Since water mediates much of the climate
change impacts on agriculture, increased water
scarcity in many regions of the world presents
a major challenge for climate adaptation.
Addressing the implications of future water
availability for food security is paramount and
requires coherent cross-sectoral, national
and regional strategies that address water
management supply and demand. Marketbased instruments (water pricing, water trading)
could enhance efficient water use and improve
water demand management. However, strong
institutional structures are also required to ensure
people’s rightful access to this indispensable and
geographically bound resource.
Climate change mitigation measures that affect
food security involve emission reductions from
many sources. Several technologies targeting
adaptation can also have mitigation co-benefits.
At the same time, many technologies critical for
food security present dilemmas and trade-offs in
climate mitigation. Current crop-based biofuels
contribute to mitigation as a renewable energy, but
can exacerbate emissions through indirect land
use change (e.g. deforestation). Nitrogen fertilizer –
a critical input for agricultural productivity – also
presents trade-offs between food production and
climate mitigation. A win-win solution requires
ensuring that fertilizer is accessible to farmers
through efficient delivery technologies, but that its
use is reduced without negatively affecting yields or
exacerbating greenhouse gas emissions.
Climate impact assessments strongly indicate
that trade will probably expand from the mid- to
high-latitude regions to the low-latitude regions,
where production and export potential could be
reduced. At the same time, more frequent extreme
weather patterns can also adversely impact trade
by disrupting transportation, supply chains and
logistics. While global markets can play a stabilizing
role for prices and supplies, and provide alternative
food options for regions negatively impacted by
changing conditions, trade alone is not a sufficient
adaptation strategy. Trade requires a balance with
a domestic adaptation strategy that avoids too
much dependence on imports, which may increase
a country’s risk of and exposure to higher market
and price volatility expected under climate change.
Trade policy plays an important role in affecting
future trade flow patterns. Progress on climatecompatible trade policies requires ensuring
that climate measures do not distort trade and,
alternatively, that trade rules do not prevent
xi
progress on climate change. In the longer term,
trade rules should evolve to allow internalization
of the cost of carbon to avoid negatively affecting
climate change mitigation. Likewise, future climate
change mitigation policies should include measures
designed to internalize the environmental costs of
resources.
Combatting climate change must go hand in
hand with alleviating poverty. Adverse effects of
climate change are greater among poor people in
developing countries who are highly dependent
on climate-sensitive natural resources yet have
the least adaptive capacity to cope with climate
impacts. Consequently, there is increasing support
for mainstreaming climate change responses within
pro-poor development strategies. Mainstreaming
offers the opportunity to implement ‘no regrets’
actions that can improve resiliency to current and
future climate impacts for the most vulnerable
groups while avoiding potential trade-offs between
adaptation and development strategies.
Although our understanding of climate change
impacts on food systems has expanded, more
policy-relevant evidence is required. Stronger
emphasis needs to be placed on other important
drivers like bioenergy, water and trade. Climate
impact science also needs to become more
systems-based and improve cross-sectoral
frameworks to examine a number of critical
linkages: climate-food-trade, climate-nutritionhealth, climate-food-water, and climate-foodenergy. Since the effects of food insecurity and
environmental impacts are felt locally, more focus
should be given to local validation of climate
impacts, taking into account spatial variability,
possible adaptation responses, local resource
availabilities and constraints, and socio-economic
determinants. Robust and reliable evidence is
critical to the development of policies to address
climate change impacts on agriculture, water
and trade. This is critical since climate policy
must cope with a certain level of unavoidable
uncertainty in the evidence base. Consequently, a
structured multi-partner dialogue and information
exchange between the scientific community and
policy makers is necessary to provide evidencebased support to climate-compatible food security
policies.
This book examines these issues in detail and
is the outcome of an expert consultation organized
by FAO in November 2013 which gathered
acknowledged experts in climate impact research.
The 11 chapters cover the latest scientific
and economic evidence on climate impact
assessments of crop and livestock systems. The
chapters cover methodological overviews of global
climate impact assessments (biophysical and
economic) of food systems, as well as specific
model-based analyses focusing on a particular
region (Africa, Europe, Asia, Eastern Europe and
Central Asia, South East Asia) and food systems
(small grains, rice, livestock, bananas). Each
chapter starts with take-home messages for nonspecialist readers.
Maria Helena Semedo
Deputy Director-General
xii
PREFACE
T
his book arose in response to the growing
debate about the threat of climate change on the
global food supply and the challenges it poses
for food security, nutrition, and poverty alleviation.
This debate also brought sharper focus on the
potential increased role of trade as a driver to
mitigate some the negative impacts of climate on
global food production.
To assess the best available evidence on
the issue and to make it more accessible for
policy, the Food and Agriculture Organization of
the United Nations (FAO) organized an expert
consultation in November 2013 in Rome. During
the two day event, a number of acknowledged
experts reviewed the current evidence on
climate impacts on food systems, examined the
research methodologies and gaps, and discussed
the policy implications. The consultation also
discussed ways to strengthen dialogue between
science and policy and to improve information
sharing in support of adaptation strategies to
cope with climate impacts on global food supply,
food security and trade. The present volume is the
outcome of this consultation and the contributed
papers that followed.
Funding for this work was provided by the
Swedish International Development Agency (SIDA)
as part of the FAO Multi-Partner Programme
Support Mechanism (FMM) (2011-2014).
This book owes its release to many. The first
acknowledgement goes to the participants of the
expert consultation and the book’s contributing
authors. David Hallam, Director of the Trade and
Markets Division, has actively supported this work
and provided the required leadership throughout.
Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, then senior
economist at FAO, provided valuable expert
advice on the consultation program and the active
experts in this field. Special thanks are addressed
to external peer reviewers of selected book
chapters, namely: Joseph Eitzinger, Professor,
University of Natural Resources and Applied Life
Sciences Austria; Thomas Hertel, Distinguished
Professor and Director, the Global Trade Analysis
Project, Purdue University; William Liefert,
Senior Economist, United States Department of
Agriculture, Economic Research Service; and
Francesco Tubiello, Senior Officer, Food and
Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
(FAO).
Special acknowledgement goes to
Nadia Laouini who ably managed the
administrative support for the November 2013
consultation and for the commissioned
papers that followed. Marwan Benali provided
valuable technical assistance during and after
the consultation. Brett Shapiro carefully copy
edited the entire manuscript, while Rita Ashton,
Ettore Vecchione and Cinzia Tarisciotti
collaborated superbly to format and to create the
book art design.
xiii
climate change and food systems: global assessments and implications for food security and trade
ACRONYMS
ABM
Agent-based models
AEM
agro-ecosystem model
AET
actual evapotranspiration
AEZ
Agro-ecological zones
AgGRID
AgMIP GRIDded crop modelling initiative
AGLW
Water Resources, Development and Management Service
AgMIP
Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project
AIM
Asian Pacific Integrated Model
ANZ
Australia & New Zealand
AOGCM
Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models
APEX
The Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender model
APSIM
Agricultural Production Systems Simulator
AR4
4th Assessment Report of the IPCC
AR5
5th Assessment Report of the IPCC
ASARECA
Association for Strengthening Agricultural Research in Eastern and
Central Africa
AVHRR
Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer
Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project
BEST
BLS
Basic Linked System
BMZ
Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, Germany
CBA
Cost benefit analysis
CC climate change
Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
CCAFS
CERES
Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System
CES
Constant elasticity of substitution
CET
Constant Elasticity of Transformation
CGCM2
Coupled General Circulation Model Phase 2
CGE
Computable general equilibrium
CGIAR
Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research
CIAT
International Center for Tropical Agriculture
CLUE
Conversion of Land Use and its Effects
CMIP3
Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 3
CMIP5
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5
CNRM-CM3
National Meteorological Research Centre – Climate Model 3
CO2
carbon dioxide
COMECON
Council for Mutual Economic Assistance
CORAF
Conference des Responsables de Recherche Agronomique Africains
CSIRO Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
CSIROmk2
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Mark 2b
xiv
chapter
1: global assessments of climate impacts on food systems:
a summary of findings and policy recommendations
CYF
DGVM
DIVA DRC DSSAT
EBRD
ECHAM4
ECHAM5
EE4H
EE5H
ENVISAGE
EPIC
EPPA
EPTD
ETS
EU
EV
EVT FACCE
FACE
FANRPAN
FAO
FAOSTAT
FAPRI-ISU
FARM
FPU
FSM
GAEZ
GCAM
GCM
GDD
GDP
GE
GEF
GGCM
GGCMI
GHG
GHM
GIS
GLAM
GLASS
GLC2000
GLOBIOM GNP
GPS
Climate-yield factors
Dynamic Global Vegetation Model
Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
Fourth-generation climate model from Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Fifth-generation climate model from Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
leaf four
leaf five
Environmental Impact and Sustainability Applied General Equilibrium
Environmental Policy Integrated Climate
Predictions and Policy Analysis
Environment and Production Technology Division
effective temperature sum
European Union
equivalent variable
evapotranspiration
Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change
free air CO2 enrichment
Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
FAO statistics
Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute – Iowa State University
Future Agricultural Resources Model
Food Producing Unit
farming system model
Global agro-ecological zones
Global Change Assessment Model
Global circulation model
Growing degree days
Gross Domestic Product
general equilibrium
Global Environmental Facility
Global Gridded Crop Model
Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison
Greenhouse gas
Global hydrological modeling
geographical information system
General Large Area Model
The Global Assessment of Security model
Global Land Cover 2000
Global Biosphere Management Model
gross national product
Global Positioning System
xv
climate change and food systems: global assessments and implications for food security and trade
GRACE
GTAP
GTEM
GWUM
HA
HadCM3 IAM
IBSNAT
ICASA
IFPRI
IIASA
IKAR
ILUC
IMPACT
IPCC
ISI-MIP
KG
KM2
LAC
LARS
LGP
LPJmL
LSM
MACSUR
MAGNET
MAgPIE MBI
MCA
MCWLA
MIO
MIROC
MIT
MMM
MODIS
Mt
NAPA NASA NDVI
NGO
NPP
OECD
PE
PEGASUS PET
PNL
xvi
Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (NASA/GFZ)
Global Trade Analysis Project
Global Trade and Environmental Model
Global water use modeling
hectare
Hadley Centre climate prediction model 3
Integrated assessment model
International Benchmark Sites Network for Agrotechnology Transfer
International Consortium for Agricultural Systems Applications
International Food Policy Research Institute
International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis
Institute of Agricultural Market Studies
Indirect land use change
International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project
kilogramme
square kilometres
Latin America and the Caribbean
Long Ashton Research Station
Length of the growing period
Lund-Post-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model with managed Land
land surface scheme
Modelling European Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security
Modular Applied GeNeral Equilibrium Tool
Model of Agricultural Production and its Impacts on the Environment
Market-based instruments
Multi-Criteria Analysis
Model to capture the Crop-Weather relationship over a Large Area
million
Model for Interdisciplinary Research On Climate
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
multi-model mean
Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer
million tonnes
National adaptations plans of actions
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (USA)
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index
non-governmental organization
net primary productivity
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development
partial equilibrium
Predicting Ecosystem Goods and Services Using Scenarios
potential evaporation
progressive nitrogen limitation
chapter
1: global assessments of climate impacts on food systems:
a summary of findings and policy recommendations
PW
Rain/PET
RAP
RCM
RCP
SAPWAT
SLR
SPAM
SRES
SREX
SSP
SWOPSIM
T/HA
TDU
TEM
TLU
Tmax
Tmean
Tmin
UN
UNFCCC
URB
USD
USDA
USSR
WB
WDI
WMO
WOFOST WTMCL WTO
YEXO
YILD
world price
rainfall/potential evaporation
Representative Agricultural Pathway
Regional Climate Model
Representative concentration pathway
South African Plant WATer
sea-level rise
Spatial Production Allocation Model
Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters
Shared Socio-economic Pathway
Static World Policy Simulation
tonnes/hectare
thermal development units
Terrestrial Ecosystem Model
tropical livestock units
maximum temperature
mean temperature
minimum temperature
United Nations
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
urban
United States dollars
United States Department of Agriculture
Union of Soviet Socialist Republics
World Bank
World Development Indicators
World Meteorological Organization
World Food Studies
World Trade Model with Climate-Sensitive Land
World Trade Organization
pure climate change impact on crop and grass yields
autonomously adapted yields
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