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Intended nationally determined contributions:
what are the implications for greenhouse gas
emissions in 2030?
Rodney Boyd, Joe Cranston Turner and Bob Ward
Policy paper
October 2015
ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and
Policy
Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and
the Environment
1
The Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy (CCCEP) was
established in 2008 to advance public and private action on climate change
through rigorous, innovative research. The Centre is hosted jointly by the
University of Leeds and the London School of Economics and Political
Science. It is funded by the UK Economic and Social Research Council. More
information about the ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and
Policy can be found at: http://www.cccep.ac.uk
The Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the
Environment was established in 2008 at the London School of Economics
and Political Science. The Institute brings together international expertise on
economics, as well as finance, geography, the environment, international
development and political economy to establish a world-leading centre for
policy-relevant research, teaching and training in climate change and the
environment. It is funded by the Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the
Environment, which also funds the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at
Imperial College London. More information about the Grantham Research
Institute can be found at: http://www.lse.ac.uk/grantham/
The Authors
Rodney Boyd is a Policy Analyst and Research Advisor to Nicholas Stern at
the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment
and ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy at London
School of Economics and Political Science.
Joe Cranston Turner is a Visiting Fellow at the Grantham Research Institute
on Climate Change and the Environment and ESRC Centre for Climate
Change Economics and Policy at London School of Economics and Political
Science.
Bob Ward is Policy and Communications Director at the Grantham Research
Institute on Climate Change and the Environment and ESRC Centre for
Climate Change Economics and Policy at London School of Economics and
Political Science.
The authors wish to acknowledge helpful reviews of this paper by Alina
Averchenkova, Samuela Bassi and Dimitri Zenghelis.
This policy paper is intended to inform decision-makers in the public, private
and third sectors. It has been reviewed by at least two internal referees before
publication. The views expressed in this paper represent those of the
author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the host institutions or
funders.
2
Intended nationally determined contributions: what are the implications for
greenhouse gas emissions in 2030?
Rodney Boyd, Joe Cranston Turner and Bob Ward
October 2015
1. Introduction and context
Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
agreed at the 20th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP20) in Lima, Peru, in
December 2014 to set out their “intended nationally determined contributions” (INDCs)
ahead of COP21 in Paris, France, in December 2015. It was further agreed that each
INDC will “represent a progression beyond the current undertaking of that Party”.1
The INDCs that were submitted by 23 October 2015 included an indication of expected
annual greenhouse gas emissions beyond 2020 (i.e. usually as a target for emissions in
2025 and 2030). Many Parties provided information about their expected annual
emissions in 2020 following COP15 in Copenhagen, Denmark, in December 2009.2
Hence, these INDCs can be analysed to provide an indication of whether intended action
by countries is collectively consistent with the decision, agreed at COP16 in Cancún,
Mexico, in 2010, which states it “recognizes that deep cuts in global greenhouse gas
emissions are required according to science, and as documented in the Fourth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, with a view to
reducing global greenhouse gas emissions so as to hold the increase in global average
temperature below 2°C above preindustrial levels, and that Parties should take urgent
action to meet this long-term goal, consistent with science and on the basis of equity”.3
A paper by Boyd, Stern and Ward (2015) concluded that, based on announcements by
the European Union, China and United States, the INDCs submitted ahead of COP21 are
unlikely to be collectively consistent with the goal of having a reasonable chance of
avoiding a rise in global average temperature of more than 2°C above its pre-industrial
level. An initial analysis by Boyd, Turner and Ward (2015) of INDCs submitted by 46
countries, including the 28 Member States of the European Union, by 20 July 2015
concluded that they collectively represented progress compared with ‘business as
usual’, but that they were inconsistent with an emissions pathway that would offer a
reasonable chance of avoiding a rise in global average temperature of more than 2°C.
The analysis presented here considers whether the INDCs that were submitted by 23
October 2015 are consistent with a reasonable chance of not exceeding the 2°C warming
limit.4 As of 23 October 2015, 154 countries (including the 28 Member States of the
UNFCCC (2014; p.3).
A list of the country submissions are available at:
http://unfccc.int/meetings/copenhagen_dec_2009/items/5276.php
3 UNFCCC (2011; p.3).
4 The authors also submitted to the United Nations Environment Programme a similar analysis of
INDCs submitted by 146 countries by the 1 October 2015. Between 1 October and 23 October, 8
1
2
3
European Union) had submitted INDCs, including pledges to limit or reduce annual
national emissions after 2020.5 These 154 countries were together responsible for over
85% of global annual emissions of greenhouse gases,6 and represented over 90% of
global gross domestic product (GDP),7 in 2012. We compare the level of annual global
emissions in 2030 implied by these INDCs with pathways for both hypothetical ‘business
as usual’ (BAU) and those consistent with a reasonable chance of not breaching the 2°C
warming limit.
Our conclusions are provided in the final section of this paper. Based on our analysis of
the INDCs that has been submitted by 23 October 2015 by 154 countries, we conclude
that there has been progress compared with hypothetical ‘business as usual’ global
emissions pathways. However there is a gap between the emissions pathway that would
result from current ambitions and plans, including those goals outlined by the submitted
INDCs, and a pathway that is consistent with a reasonable chance of limiting the rise in
global average temperature to no more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels. The most
optimistic estimate of global emissions in 2030 resulting from the INDCs is about
halfway between hypothetical ‘business as usual’ and a pathway that is consistent with
the 2°C limit. Consequently, countries should be considering opportunities to narrow the
gap before and after the COP21 summit in Paris, including:
i.
hard work by all countries to find credible ways of achieving bigger emissions
reductions which can be included in INDCs and/or achieved through additional
efforts by partnerships (e.g. through specific decarbonisation initiatives among
willing countries);
ii.
an intensification of efforts to increase investment and innovation, particularly
in relation to the development of cities, energy systems and land use, that could
help to close the gap between intentions and the goal before and after 2030;
iii.
the creation of a mechanism, to be included in the agreement emerging from
COP21 in Paris in December 2015, for countries to review their efforts and to
find ways of ramping up the ambition of their emissions reductions by 2030 and
beyond, taking into account the multiple economic benefits, including from
reductions in local air pollution, resulting from measures to limit climate change
risks;
iv.
concerted efforts by all countries to build strong and transparent domestic bases
for the implementation of their INDCs, setting countries on a path to
decarbonisation and enabling them to ramp up their ambitions; and
v.
further efforts by countries to provide clarity and quantify uncertainties about
their expected future emissions.
countries, producing 1.4% of global emissions, submitted INDCs. This means there is a small
difference between the “LSE” results present in the UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2015 and those
in this paper.
5 INDCs that have been submitted to the secretariat of the UNFCCC are published at:
http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/indc/Submission%20Pages/submissions.aspx
6 World Resources Institute (2014, 2015).
7 The World Bank, World Development Indicators (2015), GDP (current US$) 2014, retrieved
from http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD/countries/1W?display=graph.
4
2. Evaluation of post-2020 emissions reduction pledges in INDCs
We have assessed greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 based on INDCs that were
submitted by 154 countries by 23 October 2015.8 The objective of our independent
analysis of the INDCs is to help inform the Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC. We have
taken INDCs at face value. Where there is uncertainty, our aim is to illustrate the full
potential range rather than to produce a ‘best guess’.
There are a number of uncertainties about the national level of annual emissions in
2030 that are implied by the targets set out in the INDCs of some countries. To illustrate
this uncertainty, we present three different INDC Scenarios in our results. The first two
INDC Scenarios illustrate the range of emissions implied by those mitigation targets that
are uncertain in some way. For instance, for an INDC that presents an emissions
intensity target—e.g. a target for reducing the tonnes of carbon-dioxide-equivalent per
unit of GDP output—the calculated level of emissions depends greatly on what GDP
growth rates are assumed over the time period up to the target.9 In the case of India and
China, we make assessments for two different GDP growth rates: INDC Scenario 1 shows
the level of emissions if independent GDP growth rate projections are used for the
intensity target calculations,10 and INDC Scenario 2 shows the same result if official
national GDP growth rate projections are used11.
In addition, INDC Scenario 1 and INDC Scenario 2 may be presented as a range where an
emissions target, or emissions intensity target, is expressed as a percentage range (e.g.
Russia’s INDC target is to reduce its emissions by 25–30% by 2030 compared with 1990,
and India’s target is to reduce the emissions intensity of its economy by 33–35% by
2030 compared with 2005). These Scenarios include all greenhouse gas targets apart
from conditional targets. In the case of an INDC that explicitly states both a conditional
We consider the basket of six anthropogenic greenhouse gases covered by the Kyoto Protocol
(i.e. carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulphur
hexafluoride), and express the size of emissions in terms of gigatonnes (Gt), or billions of metric
tonnes, of carbon-dioxide-equivalent (CO2e), based on 100-year global warming potentials, as
published in the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(1995). All sources from human activities, including changes to peat, of the basket of greenhouse
gas emissions covered by the Kyoto Protocol are taken into account. See Appendix 1 for details
about the approach used here.
9 As discussed in Appendix 1 and 2, this is particularly important for the assessment of the INDCs
submitted China and India, where future emissions are expressed in terms of emissions intensity,
and the calculated level of emissions depends on assumed GDP growth between today and 2030.
Three other countries also submitted INDCs by 23 October 2015 which include emissions
intensity targets, but they account for just 0.4% of global emissions, so we have used only one
GDP growth assumption each for these countries.
10 For the purposes of this brief, we use national GDP growth rate estimates from the
International Monetary Fund up to 2020 (IMF, 2015), and estimates published by the
Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) for the period between 2020
and 2030 (OECD, 2014). The IMF and OECD are both trusted and reliable sources for national
financial metrics.
11 India’s INDC explicitly includes official expectations of GDP growth from 2015 to 2030 based
on an annual average growth rate of 8.6%. China’s National Centre for Climate Change Strategy
and International Cooperation published a paper on China’s INDC (NCSC, 2015) which included
GDP growth projections of 7% for the period between 2015 and 2020 and 5.3% between 2020
and 2030. See Appendix 2 for more information.
8
5
and unconditional target, we present INDC Scenario 3 to show the level of emissions
assuming the delivery of the top (most ambitious) end of their target range only and the
delivery of their conditional objective. A summary of the INDC Scenarios is presented in
Table 1, and more details can be found in Appendix 1. Assumptions for each country can
be found in Appendix 2.
Table 1: Summary of INDC Scenarios used in this report
Scenario
1
2
3
GDP growth
assumption
Independent GDP
projections12
National GDP
projections
Independent GDP
projections
Target range used
Conditional targets
Top and bottom target
ranges
Conditional targets are
not met
Top target range
All conditional targets
met
We compare these three INDC Scenarios with two hypothetical ‘business as usual’
scenarios.
The first hypothetical ‘business as usual’ scenario, a Pre-INDC Reference Scenario, is an
aggregate of estimates of emissions in 2030 for every Party to the UNFCCC based on
actions and plans that had been introduced by mid-2014, and as assessed by the
International Energy Agency and other sources. For those countries that had not
submitted INDCs by 23 October 2015, the hypothetical Pre-INDC Reference Scenario
allows us to make an informed assumption about their emissions in 2030. It is important
to note that the hypothetical Pre-INDC Reference Scenarios generate single value
estimates for emissions in 2030, and do not convey the uncertainties around these
estimates, in order to make our analysis more manageable. The Pre-INDC Reference
Scenarios for individual countries may differ from the assumptions about ‘business as
usual’ emissions made by countries during the preparation of their INDCs. Details of our
approach to the evaluation of post-2020 emissions reduction pledges in INDCs is
described in detail in Appendix 1, with country-level assumptions discussed in Appendix
2.
The second hypothetical ‘business as usual’ scenario is that previously described by the
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP, 2014) for an extrapolation of current
economic, social and technological trends, and takes into account climate policies
implemented up to about 2005–2010 (i.e. what would happen to emissions if planned
climate mitigation policies were not implemented)13.
We also compare the three INDC Scenarios with the estimates by the United Nations
Environment Programme (2014) of the annual global emissions in 2030 that would be
consistent with pathways that offer a 50–66 per cent chance of avoiding global warming
of more than 2°C above the pre-industrial global average temperature. UNEP (2014)
12
13
See text for details.
This figure will be updated in the forthcoming 2015 version of the UNEP Emissions Gap Report.
6
calculated that 36 GtCO2e in 2030 was a median value for these pathways, without
assuming significant amounts of ‘negative emissions’ through, for instance, the
utilisation of bioenergy and carbon capture and storage (BECCS), or 42 GtCO2e when
that assumption is made.
The results of our analysis are presented in Table 2. The most optimistic estimate of
global emissions in 2030 resulting from the INDCs (i.e. INDC Scenario 3) is about
halfway between the hypothetical ‘business as usual’ pathway from UNEP (2014) and a
pathway that is consistent with the 2°C limit.
The estimated total for annual global emissions in 2030 is projected to be between 54.0
billion tonnes of carbon-dioxide-equivalent (GtCO2e) and 56.6 GtCO2e for INDC Scenario
1, assuming conditional targets are not met. For INDC Scenario 2, the range of global
annual emissions in 2030 is between 58.3 and 61.1 GtCO2e, again assuming conditional
targets are not met. The difference in the ranges for INDC Scenario 1 and INDC Scenario
2 is almost entirely explained by the differences in the assumed economic growth rates
for India and China.
For INDC Scenario 3, in which the most ambitious end of conditional INDC targets is met,
global emissions in 2030 are projected to be 52.8 GtCO2e.
The projected totals for these INDC Scenarios may be larger than the totals obtained if
further countries submit INDCs. However, with more than 85% of 2012 global emissions
covered by the INDCs submitted by 154 countries as of 23 October 2015, we expect the
potential differences to be relatively small.
Table 2: Projected annual global emissions in 2030
Scenario
UNEP hypothetical ‘business as usual’
Hypothetical Pre-INDC Reference Scenario
INDC Scenario 1
INDC Scenario 2
INDC Scenario 3
UNEP 2°C limit
(without net negative emissions from power and industry)
UNEP 2°C limit
(with net negative emissions from power and industry)
Emissions in 2030 (GtCO2e)
68
64.4
54.0 – 56.6
58.3 – 61.1
52.8
36
42
Table 2 and Figure 1 show the difference between the estimated emissions totals for
each of the three INDC Scenarios, the two hypothetical ‘business as usual’ scenarios, and
the UNEP estimates for pathways that offer a 50-66% chance of avoiding global
warming of more than 2°C.
Global annual emissions in 2030 according to INDC Scenario 1 would be approximately
11.4 to 14 GtCO2e lower than UNEP’s hypothetical ‘business as usual’ projection and
about 7.8 to 10.4 GtCO2e lower than our hypothetical Pre-INDC Reference Scenario.
However, 2030 emissions in INDC Scenario 1 would still be 18 to 20.6 GtCO2e above the
7
target emissions total for a pathway that offers a 50–66% chance of limiting global
warming to no more than 2°C (or 12.0 to 14.6 GtCO2e if significant negative emissions
are assumed). Overall, the estimates for INDC Scenario 1 suggest emissions in 2030 will
be about two-fifths of the way between hypothetical ‘business as usual’ and a pathway
that is consistent with the 2°C warming limit.
According to INDC Scenario 2, global annual emissions in 2030 would be approximately
6.9 to 9.7 GtCO2e lower than UNEP’s hypothetical ‘business as usual’ projection and
about 3.3 to 6.2 GtCO2e lower than our hypothetical Pre-INDC Reference Scenario. These
emissions would still be 22.3 to 25.1 GtCO2e or 16.3 to 19.1 GtCO2e higher than the
emissions pathways for the 2°C warming limit. Overall, the estimates for INDC Scenario
2 suggest emissions in 2030 will be about a quarter of the way between hypothetical
‘business as usual’ and a pathway that is consistent with the 2°C warming limit.
For INDC Scenario 3, emissions in 2030 would be 15.2 and 11.6 GtCO2e lower than the
UNEP hypothetical ‘business as usual’ and our hypothetical Pre-INDC Reference
Scenario, respectively, but still 16.8 or 10.8 GtCO2e higher than the emissions pathways
for the 2°C warming limit. Overall, the estimate for INDC Scenario 3 suggests emissions
in 2030 will be about half-way between hypothetical ‘business as usual’ and a pathway
that is consistent with the 2°C warming limit.
Figure 1: Global annual emissions between 2010 and 2030
Global annual emissions (GtCO2e)
80
80
2030 UNEP 'BAU'
70
70
60
60
50
50
INDC Scenario 3
2020 Pledges
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
INDC Scenario 2
INDC Scenario 1
UNEP 2°C path
Reference Scenario
0
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Based on these scenarios, the shares of global emissions in 2030 for OECD and nonOECD countries is around 19–21% and 74–77%, respectively, across the three INDC
Scenarios, compared with figures of 32% and 65% in 2010.14
As noted earlier in this section, the variation in global emissions in 2030 across the INDC
Scenarios (particularly between INDC Scenarios 1 and 2) largely results from a few
countries that have emissions intensity targets, where assumptions about GDP growth
rates are critical for determining emissions levels, as opposed to absolute emission
reductions. Notably, two large emitters with emission intensity targets, China and India,
account for around 36–41% of the total emissions in 2030, depending on the INDC
Scenario; the United States and European Union represent around 13% of 2030
14
Non-sovereign emissions were around 3% in 2010 and are estimated at 4% in 2030.
8
emissions; and a group consisting of Brazil, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa, together
account for around 11% of 2030 emissions. This means that the ‘BRICS’ group of
countries plus the United States and the European Union would account for about 59–
64% of global emissions in 2030, based on the INDC Scenarios presented here. The
remaining OECD countries would be responsible for around 8% of total global emissions
in 2030 across the three INDC Scenarios, with the rest of Africa (ca. 7%), Middle East (ca.
6%), the rest of the Americas (ca. 5%), the rest of Asia (ca. 7%), the other non-OECD
countries (ca. 3%) and non-sovereign emissions (4%) accounting for the remaining
emissions. Figures 2a and 2b show a breakdown of absolute emissions in 2030 by
country/region and share of total 2030 emissions.
Figures 2a and 2b: Country and regional breakdown of emissions in 2030.
Reference Scenario
INDC Scenario 3 (High, conditional targets)
INDC Scenario 2 (High, national GDP)
INDC Scenario 2 (Low, national GDP)
INDC Scenario 1 (High, independent GDP)
INDC Scenario 1 (Low, independent GDP)
GtCO2e
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
Non-Sovereign Emissions
Other non-OECD
Rest of Americas
Middle East
Rest of Africa
Rest of Asia
Brazil, Indonesia, Russia, South Africa
EU
USA
Other OECD
India
China
70
Thousands
Reference Scenario
INDC Scenario 3 (High, conditional targets)
INDC Scenario 2 (High, national GDP)
INDC Scenario 2 (Low, national GDP)
INDC Scenario 1 (High, independent GDP)
INDC Scenario 1 (Low, independent GDP)
0%
Non-Sovereign Emissions
Middle East
Brazil, Indonesia, Russia, South Africa
Other OECD
10%
20%
30%
Other non-OECD
Rest of Africa
EU
India
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Rest of Americas
Rest of Asia
USA
China
Note: Figure 2a (top) shows absolute emissions (in GtCO2e) from the hypothetical
Reference Scenario (top bar) and all INDC Scenarios. Figure 2 (bottom) shows the share of
total 2030 emissions from each country/region in each scenario. See Table 6 in Appendix 2
for underlying data.
9
We can also consider the emissions estimates on a per capita basis: that is, average
number of tonnes of carbon-dioxide-equivalent per person in a country or region, using
population forecasts by the United Nations to 2030, when the global population might
grow to 8.3 billion people.15 Figure 3 illustrates projected changes in per capita
emissions across regions based on INDC Scenarios 1–3. The average per capita
emissions for the global Reference Scenario in 2030 is projected to be 7.7 tCO2e per
person, compared with 6.5–7.3 tCO2e per person across INDC Scenarios 1 and 2, and 6.3
tCO2e per person in INDC Scenario 3.
Figure 3: Country and regional per capita emissions in 2030 for INDC Scenarios 1–
3.
WORLD TOTAL
Russia
Middle East
USA
Other non-OECD
China
Rest of Americas
Other OECD
South Africa
Indonesia
EU
Brazil
India
Rest of Asia
Rest of Africa
INDC Scenario 1
INDC Scenario 2
INDC Scenario 3
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
tCO2e per capita
Note: the average from a range of per capita emissions is used for INDC Scenarios 1 and 2,
if applicable. See Table 7 for the underlying data.
Appendix 1 presents a qualitative assessment of the submitted INDCs, and details of the
approach employed to estimate 2030 emissions resulting from these INDCs.
15
UNDESA (2015).
10
3. Conclusions
The results of our analysis show that the INDCs submitted by 23 October 2015 by the
154 countries would result in a reduction in global emissions in 2030 relative to UNEP’s
hypothetical ‘business as usual’ pathway and our hypothetical Pre-INDC Reference
Scenario.
Nevertheless, our assessment indicates that the INDCs that have so far been submitted,
from countries representing over 85% of global emissions in 2012, are not consistent
with the total of 36 GtCO2e in 2030 calculated by UNEP (2014) as being on a global
emissions pathway that would offer a 50–66 per cent chance of avoiding global warming
of more than 2°C above the pre-industrial global average temperature. The most
optimistic estimate of global emissions in 2030 resulting from the INDCs is about
halfway between hypothetical ‘business as usual’ and a pathway that is consistent with
the 2°C limit. Further, all of the INDC scenarios are higher than the 42 GtCO2e total which
UNEP (2014) suggests would be consistent with a 50–66 per cent chance of not
breaching the 2°C limit, assuming significant amounts of ‘negative emissions’ through,
for instance, the utilisation of bioenergy and carbon capture and storage (BECCS).
As has been stressed by Boyd, Stern and Ward (2015), the mismatch between the
ambitions embodied by the INDCs and the overall objective of having a reasonable
chance of avoiding global warming of more than 2°C means that Parties to the UNFCCC
should undertake additional action, including:
i.
hard work by all countries to find credible ways of achieving bigger emissions
reductions which can be included in INDCs and/or achieved through additional
efforts by partnerships (e.g. through specific decarbonisation initiatives among
willing countries);
ii.
an intensification of efforts to increase investment and innovation, particularly
in relation to the development of cities, energy systems and land use, that could
help to close the gap between intentions and the goal before and after 2030;
iii.
the creation of a mechanism, to be included in the agreement emerging from
COP21 in Paris in December 2015, for countries to review their efforts and to
find ways of ramping up the ambition of their emissions reductions by 2030 and
beyond, taking into account the multiple economic benefits, including from
reductions in local air pollution, resulting from measures to limit climate change
risks; and
iv.
concerted efforts by all countries to build strong and transparent domestic bases
for the implementation of their INDCs, setting countries on a path to
decarbonisation and enabling them to ramp up their ambitions; and
v.
further efforts by countries to provide clarity and quantify uncertainties about
their expected future emissions.
This is the final update in a series of analyses of likely emissions in 2030. Previous
versions of this analysis can be found on the websites of the Grantham Research
Institute on Climate Change and the Environment (http://www.lse.ac.uk/grantham) and
the ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy (http://www.cccep.ac.uk).
11
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http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/natc/chnnc2e.pdf.
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13
http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/wpcontent/uploads/2014/02/PPCOPAccordSternTaylorMarch10.pdf
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UNEP, Nairobi, Kenya. Available at:
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268/pdf/EGR2014_LOWRES.pdf
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Country Emissions. World Resources Institute, Washington, DC. Available at:
http://www.wri.org/resources/data-sets/unfccc-annex-i-ghg-emissions-0
14
Appendix 1: Approach to evaluating post-2020 emissions reduction pledges in
INDCs
Our approach to evaluating post-2020 emissions reduction pledges in INDCs consists of
four main steps:
i.
estimating annual emissions of greenhouse gases in 2030 from the INDCs that
had been submitted by 154 countries by 23 October 2015;
ii.
estimating a hypothetical Pre-INDC Reference Scenario for each country based
on policies that had been implemented by mid-2014;
iii.
calculating the total projected annual global emissions of greenhouse gases in
2030, based on submitted INDCs, across a number of INDC Scenarios using
various assumptions as shown in Table 1; and
iv.
quantifying the gaps between the INDC Scenarios and
a. a UNEP ‘business as usual’ pathway and an aggregate of the hypothetical
Pre-INDC Reference Scenarios; and
b. an aggregate total for global emissions in 2030 that is projected to be
consistent with a reasonable chance of avoiding global warming of more
than 2°C above pre-industrial levels.
We consider the basket of six anthropogenic greenhouse gases covered by the Kyoto
Protocol (i.e. carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons,
perfluorocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride), and express the size of emissions in terms
of gigatonnes (Gt), or billions of metric tonnes, of carbon-dioxide-equivalent (CO2e),
based on 100-year global warming potentials, as published in the Second Assessment
Report (AR2) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 1995). All
sources from human activities, including changes to peat, of the basket of greenhouse
gas emissions covered by the Kyoto Protocol are taken into account.
Estimating 2030 emissions from INDCs
We have based our calculations on INDCs that have been posted on the website of the
UNFCCC.16 Details of assumptions used to calculate emissions in 2030 from each INDC
are listed in Appendix 2. The INDCs for the 28 Member States of the European Union are
considered together. In some cases, the INDCs imply a range within which emissions will
lie in 2030. In these cases we have calculated the upper and lower limits to the ranges
and presented this range in INDC Scenarios 1 and 2. The range does not include the
conditional offers submitted by some Parties where both a conditional and
unconditional target is stated. It does include unconditional targets, targets for which
conditionality is not specified and targets where the Party has stated the entire INDC is
conditional. Where conditional targets are expressed, these are estimated and included
in INDC Scenario 3.
We use the total for annual emissions of greenhouse gases in 2030 where it is explicitly
stated in an INDC. Where it is implied, we have undertaken a calculation based on
16
See: http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/indc/Submission%20Pages/submissions.aspx.
15
information provided by the Party that submitted the INDC. Our general approach has
been to take INDCs and other information at face value. We have not conducted a
detailed assessment of the different approaches to accounting for emissions from the
land sector that have been adopted by Parties. Our general approach has been to assess
the INDCs at their face values.
Where, for instance, an INDC expresses emissions in 2030 as a percentage of an earlier
year’s emissions (e.g. 40 per cent below 1990 levels), we calculate the total based on the
emissions data submitted by that Party to the UNFCCC.17 Where the INDC for a Party is
less specific about emissions in 2030, we make simple and reasonable assumptions to
estimate the total, with details provided in Appendix 2.
For INDCs that do not explicitly state a level of emissions in 2030, we calculate the total
based on the most up-to-date and reliable information about past and future emissions,
as well as relevant data about other relevant factors, such as economic growth rates. In
some cases this included referring to published analyses. Were any INDCs to include a
target measured as a reduction compared with ’business as usual’, but without
specifying a ’business as usual’ projection, we would use the hypothetical Pre-INDC
Reference Scenario outlined below. However, of the 67 INDCs that have included a
’business as usual’ target only five did not include a ’business as usual’ projection, and
these targets covered less than 1% of global emissions.
In addition to the analysis of emissions in 2030 based on INDCs, we provide projections
of annual emissions in 2020 for the 13 individual countries and 11 regional blocs, based
on submissions by Parties to the secretariat of the UNFCCC after COP15, including both
conditional and unconditional pledges.18 These totals are updates on the figures first
published by Stern and Taylor (2010), and subsequent submissions by the Grantham
Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment to the United Nations
Environment Programme for its annual reports on the gap between emissions
commitments and targets (e.g. UNEP, 2013). The totals allow a comparison between
projected emissions in 2020 and 2030.
Of the 127 INDC documents assessed (representing 154 Parties), 17 included ‘policies
and measures’, 14 of which we were unable to quantify the impact of greenhouse gas
emissions (e.g. share of primary energy demand from non-fossil fuels), and so have
excluded from this assessment. The countries that submitted these targets produced 2%
of global emission in 2012 (see Table 4).
For Annex I countries: National Communication Reports submitted to the UNFCCC by Parties,
compiled by the World Resources Institute (WRI, 2014). For non-Annex I countries: data from the
World Resources Institute’s CAIT 2.0 dataset (WRI, 2015).
18 A list of the country submissions are available at:
http://unfccc.int/meetings/copenhagen_dec_2009/items/5276.php
17
16
Table 3: Summary of characteristics of INDCs (including 28 Member States of the
European Union) submitted by 23 October 2015
Indicates
base year
Unconditional
or not
specified
Conditional
and
Unconditional
Conditional
only
Unquantified19
TOTAL
Includes
absolute
emissions
reduction
target
Emissions
reduction
against
‘businessas-usual’
Carbon
intensity
reduction
target
Policies
and
measures
TOTAL
50
5
10
2
2
69
4
1
35
2
1
43
4
1
17
1
0
23
0
58
0
7
5
67
0
5
14
17
19
154
Source: Authors’ analysis of INDCs posted on UNFCCC website.
Table 4: Share of 2012 global emissions covered by INDCs submitted by 23
October 201520
Includes
absolute
emissions
reduction
target
Emissions
reduction
against
‘businessas-usual’
37%
1%
3%
23%
0%
63%
1%
0%
11%
0%
0%
12%
0%
0%
38%
0%
0%
1%
2%
1%
17%
6%
0%
29%
0%
2%
2%
8%
3%
86%
Indicates
base year
Unconditional
or not
specified
Conditional
and
Unconditional
Conditional
only
Unquantified
TOTAL
Carbon
intensity
reduction
target
Policies
and
measures
TOTAL
Source: Authors’ analysis of INDCs posted on UNFCCC website. Rows and columns may not
add up due to rounding.
Hypothetical Reference Scenario emissions for countries without INDCs
The UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2014 presented a hypothetical ‘business as usual’
pathway based on an extrapolation of current economic, social and technological trends.
In the analysis, hypothetical Pre-INDC Reference Scenarios were used to quantify the five
targets measured as a reduction compared with ’business as usual’, but without specifying a
’business as usual’ projection.
20 World Resources Institute’s CAIT 2.0 dataset (WRI, 2015)
19
17
This hypothetical scenario only takes into account climate policies implemented up to
around 2005–2010 and therefore serves as a reference point for what would happen to
emissions without more recent pledges and policies. In this hypothetical scenario, global
annual emissions of greenhouse gases would rise from 54 GtCO2e in 2012 to 68 GtCO2e
in 2030. This figure will be likely change in the forthcoming 2015 version of the UNEP
Emissions Gap Report.
While UNEP provides one benchmark against which to judge the progress represented
by the INDCs, we have also sought to determine a hypothetical Pre-INDC Reference
Scenario pathway based on policies that had been implemented by mid-2014. This
provides a better estimate of what emissions would be as a result of current policies
without additional action. The hypothetical Pre-INDC Reference Scenario emissions for
countries that have not submitted INDCs are also used to calculate their total projected
annual emissions of greenhouse gases in 2030. It is important to note that our
hypothetical Pre-INDC Reference Scenarios for countries have only been used in the
calculation of INDC estimates where countries have expressed future emissions relative
to ‘business as usual’ but have not provided any indication of what ‘business as usual’
emissions would be.
The hypothetical Pre-INDC Reference Scenario to 2030 draws on the following data
sources:
i.
emissions of carbon dioxide from all sources other than land use, land-use
change and forestry (LULUCF), provided by Enerdata, using the POLES model
calibrated for the data from the Current Policies Scenario in the World Energy
Outlook (2014) published by the International Energy Agency;21
ii.
emissions of carbon dioxide from LULUCF, from the International Institute for
Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA);22 and
iii.
emissions of greenhouse gases covered by the Kyoto Protocol, other than carbon
dioxide, from the Netherlands Environmental assessment Agency (PBL)23.
The hypothetical Pre-INDC Reference Scenario totals are calculated for 26 separate
blocs:
- 13 individual countries (Brazil, Canada, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico,
Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, Ukraine, United States);
- 11 regional blocs (European Union, Middle East, Oceania, Northern Africa, Rest
of Central America, Rest of Europe, Rest of the Former Soviet Union, Rest of
South America, Rest of South Asia, Rest of South East Asia, Rest of Sub-Saharan
Africa); and
- two international fuel bunkers (aviation and maritime) which cannot be
assigned to any individual countries or regional blocks so are treated as regions
in their own right.
IEA (2014).
Kindermann et al. (2008).
23 Lucas et al. (2007).
21
22
18
To project the level of emissions of smaller countries in the regional blocs that have not
submitted INDCs, we assume that the percentage of emissions produced by a country
within each region stays the same between 2012 and 2030 (even if the total absolute
emissions for the bloc changes). This is a simplifying assumption; in reality, each
country’s share of emissions may change over time due to differences in economic
growth rates, climate policies, and so on. However, the impact of these trends is likely to
be small relative to the global emissions level reported in the results.
In addition, we considered that the emissions data for the 13 individual countries, 11
regional blocs and 2 international bunkers was likely to under-estimate global emissions
by not fully including carbon dioxide emissions from peat. We have taken into account
emissions from peat in the final total for the hypothetical Pre-INDC Reference Scenario
by adding a further 1.5 GtCO2e per year, with 0.7 GtCO2e allocated to Indonesia, and 0.6
GtCO2e unallocated to non-sovereign emissions.24 The data used for the hypothetical
Pre-INDC Reference Scenario was procured thought open tender by the UK
Government’s Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) for use in its Global
Carbon Finance Model (GLOCAF).
The hypothetical Pre-INDC Reference Scenario provides a useful indication of the
theoretical level of emissions in 2030, based on the assessment of the International
Energy Agency of current policies and socio-economic trends, and other sources.
Nonetheless, projecting economic growth, demographic changes and technological
development 15 years into the future inherently results in a significant level of
uncertainty. The hypothetical Pre-INDC Reference Scenario should, therefore, be
regarded as a reasonable estimate of what emissions would hypothetically be, based on
current evidence and expectations. It should be noted that the hypothetical Pre-INDC
Reference Scenario estimates for each country are presented as single values and do not
convey the uncertainty around these estimates. It is also important to note that the
values of hypothetical Pre-INDC Reference Scenarios may differ from the ‘business as
usual’ assumptions made by countries during the preparation of their INDCs. For this
reason, it is difficult to compare the Pre-INDC Reference Scenarios and the INDC
Scenarios, as listed in Table 5 in Appendix 2, for individual countries.
For comparison purposes, alongside the estimates of future emissions for each bloc, we
also provide the details of annual emissions in 1990, 2005 and 2010 (from the GLOCAF
model). This shows that global emissions in 2010 totalled 49.8 GtCO2e. These data
points are for illustration purposes and were not used in the assessment of INDCs
emissions. Where INDC targets are expressed as absolute emissions reductions against
an historic baseline (e.g. 40 per cent below 1990 levels), the estimation may use a figure
other than the historic data provided in Table 5 in Appendix 2. In most cases, the
Research suggests global emissions from drained peatland were 1.3 GtCO2e in 2008, of which
0.5 Gt was from Indonesia. This does not include emissions caused by peat fires (for which
conservative estimates are at least 0.4 GtCO2e) (Joosten, 2010), suggesting a range of 1.3 Gt to 1.7
Gt. We have therefore increased the total annual emission from peat to 1.5 GtCO2e (the mid-point
of this range) to account for these additional emissions. Of this, 0.9 Gt is allocated to Indonesia
(0.5 Gt and 0.4 Gt for peat fires). This brings our data Indonesia historical emissions into line with
other WRI data.
24
19
baseline used will from official national inventory submissions of emissions from Annex
I Parties to the UNFCCC, or from the WRI CAIT database for other Parties (i.e. Non-Annex
I Parties to the UNFCCC).25 Therefore see Appendix 2 for details of what baseline was
used to calculate absolute emissions reductions.
Estimating global annual emissions in 2030
In order to assess the overall impact of the INDCs on global annual emissions in 2030,
we create an estimated total based on the INDCs. This is calculated by starting with the
hypothetical Pre-INDC Reference Scenario and replacing the emissions total for each
Party that has made a submission to the UNFCCC with an estimate based on its INDC. To
capture the relevant nuances in the 154 countries that had submitted INDCs, we employ
three INDC Scenarios (see Table 1 for a summary of the INDC Scenarios).



INDC Scenario 1 shows the level of emissions consistent with meeting the INDC
targets if independent GDP growth rate projections from the IMF and OECD are
used for the intensity target calculations (see footnote 10 for more information),
INDC Scenario 2 shows the same result if official national GDP growth rate
projections are used for the intensity target calculations for China and India.
INDC Scenario 3 adopts the ambitious end of target ranges and all conditional
targets.
The estimated global totals for each INDC Scenario can be compared with:
i.
The UNEP (2014) ‘business as usual’ global total, to assess what progress will be
made by existing climate policies and the delivery of the INDCs;
ii.
The hypothetical Pre-INDC Reference Scenario, to assess the additional impact of
INDCs on top of policies implemented since mid-2014; and
iii.
The UNEP estimates of the pathway for annual global emissions that is
consistent with a 50–66 per cent chance of limiting the rise in global average
temperature to no more than 2°C above pre-industrial level.
As UNEP (2014) makes clear, there is significant uncertainty around both what ‘business
as usual’ emissions would be, and what level of emissions would be consistent with the
2°C warming limit. We follow the UNEP approach of using a median value from its
ranges for emissions in order to make comparisons.
This paper is the final update in a series of analyse of likely emissions in 2030. A
previous version of the report, published by the same authors in August 2015, is
available on the websites of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the
Environment (http://www.lse.ac.uk/grantham) and the ESRC Centre for Climate Change
Economics and Policy (http://www.cccep.ac.uk). In addition, UNEP is currently updating
its analysis of ‘business-as-usual’ emissions and what level of emissions would be
consistent with the 2°C limit.
20
Appendix 2: Details of calculation of 2030 emissions from each INDC as of 23 October 201526
Target emissions in
2030
Additional conditional
target emissions in
2030 (where both a
conditional and
unconditional are
included)
Country
Announced 2030 greenhouse gas emissions targets
Canada
30% reduction in emissions below 2005 by 2030. 2005 baseline 737 million
tonnes (Mt) CO2e excluding emissions from land use, land use change and
forestry (LULUCF). LULUCF emissions 63 MtCO2e. Target emissions calculated
assumes that any increase in the sink relative to the 2005 baseline will be offset by increases in emission in the non-LULUCF sector (“net-net” accounting).
579 MtCO2e.
-
European Union
Headline 40% reductions in emissions against 1990 levels (excluding LULUCF)
translates to 41% compared to 1990 including LULUCF.
3126 MtCO2e
-
1008 MtCO2e
-
OECD
Japan
26% reduction in emissions below 2013 levels by 2030, or 25.4% reduction
below 2005 level (base year excludes LULUCF). INDC includes a target
inclusive of LULUCF emissions in 2030 (1042 MtCO2e provided in INDC,
measured with global warming potentials as presented in the Fourth
Assessment [AR4] of the IPCC (2007)), and the 2005 base year exclusive of
LULUCF (1397 MtCO2e provided in INDC, measured with global warming
potentials as presented in the Fourth Assessment Report [AR4] of the IPCC
(2007)).
To estimate Japan's target emissions with Second Assessment Report [AR2]
global warming potentials (IPCC, 1995), the authors have applied the same
26
Unless otherwise stated, source of baseline emissions used in calculations are explained under Appendix 1.
21
percentage reductions of 25.4% to the 2005 baseline emissions figure from the
UNFCCC dataset exclusive of LULUCF (1351 MtCO2e). This gives target
emissions in 2030 at 1008 MtCO2e, inclusive of LULUCF emissions.
Mexico
Unconditional 22% reduction in emissions below ‘business as usual’ (BAU) by
2030. Authors’ calculations do not count black carbon as greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions. BAU emissions for 2030 given in the INDC as 973 MtCO2e
and target emissions as 759 MtCO2e.
759 MtCO2e
623 MtCO2e
585–597 MtCO2e
585 MtCO2e
Separate conditional target of 36% reductions below BAU by 2030 with
emissions target of 623 MtCO2e.
Australia: 26% to 28% reductions in emissions below 2005 levels by 2030.
Target emissions levels (441–453 MtCO2e) are published in the document
Australia’s 2030 emissions reduction target (Australian Government, 2015).
New Zealand: 30% reductions in emissions below 2005 levels by 2030. 2005
baseline 77 MtCO2e excluding LULUCF. LULUCF emissions –22 MtCO2e. Target
emissions are calculated assuming any increase in the sink relative to the
baseline will be off-set by increase in allowed emission in the non-LULUCF
sector (“net-net” accounting). Target emissions 32 MtCO 2e.
Oceania
Region also includes a number of smaller non-OECD nations, including:
Fiji: Reference Scenario used as no INDC submitted.
Kiribati: Unconditional12.8% reductions in emissions below BAU by 2030,
equating to 10.09 thousand tCO2e (ktCO2e) of abatement. BAU is calculated as
78.828 ktCO2e. Unconditional target emissions 0.07 MtCO2e. Conditional
element is 61.8% reductions in BAU. Conditional target emissions 0.04
MtCO2e.
Marshall Islands: 45% reductions in emissions below 2010 levels by 2030.
22
Target emissions 0.10 MtCO2e.
Papua New Guinea: INDC contains a list of policies and measures, overall
impact on GHG emissions not quantified. Reference Scenario used.
Samoa: INDC contains a list of policies and measures, overall impact on GHG
emissions not quantified. Reference Scenario used.
Solomon Islands: Unconditional 30% reduction in emissions below BAU by
2030. BAU emissions in 2030 calculated at 69.167 ktCO2e. Unconditional
target emissions 0.05 MtCO2e. Conditional target 45% below BAU in 2030.
Conditional target emissions 0.04 MtCO2e.
Tonga: Reference Scenario used as no INDC submitted.
Vanuatu: abatement target of 72 ktCO2e from BAU in 2030 from the energy
sector. BAU given as 240 ktCO2e. Target emissions: 0.17 MtCO2e.
Norway: 40% reduction on 1990 emissions level provided in INDC (52
MtCO2e, excluding LULUCF). This gives 31.2 MtCO2e. Projected net removals in
2030 constitute 21.2 MtCO2e from Norway’s INDC. Norway states that only
removals beyond the level in the base year and the projected level will count
towards the 40% commitment. Target net emissions in 2030 (including
LULUCF) 10 MtCO2e.
Rest of Europe
Iceland: 40% reduction of emissions against 1990 is 3 MtCO2e by 2030.
Switzerland: 50% reduction of emissions against 1990 baseline. 1990 baseline
provided in INDC (53.3 MtCO2e).
Region also includes a number of non-OECD nations, including:
Albania: 11.5% reductions in emissions below BAU by 2030. Abatement equals
to 0.708 MtCO2e. Target covers CO2 only. BAU for CO2 emissions in 2030
23
186–187 MtCO2e
186 MtCO2e
calculated as 6.2 MtCO2e, target emissions for CO2 5.4 MtCO2e. Total emissions
estimated as 8.4 MtCO2e with ratio of CO2 (65%) and non-CO2 (35%) in 1994,
taken from UNFCCC (2008). Target emissions 8.4 MtCO2e.
Andorra: 37% reductions in emissions (194 ktCO2e) below BAU (547 ktCO2e)
by 2030. Target emissions 0.35 MtCO2e.
Bosnia & Herzegovina: Unconditional 2% reduction in emissions below BAU
by 2030, or 18% increase relative to 1990. Base year 1990 emissions given as
26.6MtCO2e incl LULUCF. Unconditional target emissions 31 MtCO2e.
Conditional 23% reduction below BAU by 2030, or 3% reduction below 1990.
Conditional target emissions 26 MtCO2e.
Liechtenstein: 40% reductions in emissions below 1990 levels by 2030 (229
ktCO2e baseline given). Target emissions 0.14 MtCO2e.
Macedonia, FYR: 30% to 36% reduction in emissions below BAU by 2030.
Target emissions given as 11.4–12.4 MtCO2e. Targets cover 80% of emissions.
Target emissions estimated as 14–15 MtCO2e using this ratio.
Monaco: 50% reduction in emissions below 1990 levels for most gases and
below 1995 for fluorinated (f-) gases. Target emissions in INDC at 0.06
MtCO2e.
Montenegro: 30% reductions in emissions below 1990 levels by 2030 for
sectors covered. Target emissions at 3,667 ktCO2e given in INDC.
Serbia: 10% reduction in emissions against 1990 by 2030 incl. LULUCF. Target
emissions 73 MtCO2e.
24
Republic of Korea
(South)
Turkey
USA
37% reduction of emissions against BAU in 2030. BAU given in INDC as 850.6
MtCO2e, excluding LULUCF. LULUCF emissions in 2030 are estimated to be -23
MtCO2e (based on 2020 LULUCF projections from the 3rd National
Communications report.27 Therefore BAU in 2030 including LULUCF estimated
at 827.6 MtCO2e. Target emissions including LULUCF are therefore 512
MtCO2e.
512 MtCO2e
-
21% reductions in emissions below BAU by 2030. BAU in 2030 at 1175
MtCO2e is provided in the INDC. Target emissions 929 MtCO2e.
929 MtCO2e
-
2025 target of 26–28% reduction on 2005 baseline emissions including.
LULUCF. 2030 based on linear trajectory from 2020 target of 17% reduction
on 2005 level, leading to 2030 emissions 35–39% below 2005 level. Target
emissions 3780–4028 MtCO2e.
3780–4028 MtCO2e
-
1172 MtCO2e
-
12,810–14,294 MtCO2e
(INDC Scenario 1)
-
BASICs (Brazil, China, India, South Africa)
Brazil
China28
27
28
43% reduction in emissions below 2005 level by 2030. A target level is
included in the INDC, which is estimated with global warming potentials from
the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report [AR5] (IPCC, 2013). Authors have taken 43%
reductions from WRI's 2005 emissions figure (2057 MtCO2e) (WRI, 2015) as
an estimate for Brazil's target emissions measured in global warming
potentials in AR2 (IPCC, 1995). Target emissions 1172 MtCO2e.
60–65% reduction in emissions intensity of GDP relative to 2005 levels.
Republic of Korea (2008).
Other research has suggested China emissions in 2030 are likely to be lower than suggested by this analysis—see, for instance, Green and Stern (2015).
25
Emissions improvement and GDP projections (approximately 6.2% annual
growth 2015–2020, 4% 2020–2030) based on projections from the IMF
(2015) and OECD (2014). Authors assume target covers all CO2 but no other
GHGs.
14,527–16,256 MtCO2e
(INDC Scenario 2)
CO2: 2005 baseline for all CO2 is 5,936 MtCO2e from China’s 2nd National
Communications report.29
Non-CO2: hypothetical Pre-INDC Reference Scenario projection used only for
non-CO2 gases: 2,706 MtCO2e, and LULUCF of -284 MtCO2e.
Target 60–65% improvement in emissions intensity from 2005 gives 12,810–
14,294 MtCO2e of emissions in 2030 (INDC Scenario 1).
With alternative GDP assumptions (approximately 7% annual growth 2015–
2020, 5.3% 2020–2030) taken from analysis by the Chinese National Climate
Strategy Centre (NCSC).30
Target emissions in 2030 are calculated as 14,527–16,256 MtCO2e (INDC
Scenario 2).
33–35% reduction in emissions intensity of GDP relative to 2005 levels.
India
2005 baseline figures come from WRI (2015), incl. LULUCF at 1914 MtCO2e.
GDP projections taken from IMF (2015), with average annual growth of 6.8%
between 2005 and 2030.
Target 33–35% improvement in emissions intensity from 2005 calculated as
6,509–6,709 MtCO2e (INDC Scenario 1).
With alternative GDP assumptions, projections for 2014–2030 taken from
29
30
People's Republic of China (2012).
NCSC (2015).
26
6,509–6,709 MtCO2e
(INDC Scenario 1)
9,008–9,285 MtCO2e
(INDC Scenario 2)
-
INDC document give an annual average of 8.6% growth over the period.
Combining GDP data from IMF (2015) between 2005 and 2013 gives an
average of 8.2% between 2005 and 2030.
Target 33–35% improvement in emissions intensity from 2005 calculated as
9,008–9,285 MtCO2e (INDC Scenario 2).
Range of target emissions committed by South Africa is given in INDC as 398–
614 MtCO2e by 2025 and 2030. Target excludes LULUCF.
398–614 MtCO2e
-
Unconditional 29% reduction in emissions below BAU by 2030. BAU at 2030
given in INDC (2881 MtCO2e). Unconditional target emissions 2046 MtCO2e.
Separate conditional target of 41% reduction in emissions below BAU by 2030.
Conditional target emissions 1700 MtCO2e,
2046 MtCO2e
1700 MtCO2e
Russian Federation
25–30% reduction in emissions below 1990 levels by 2030. Baseline 1990
emissions 3436 MtCO2e (including LULUCF). Target emissions 2409–2577
MtCO2e.
2409–2577 MtCO2e
-
Ukraine
40% reduction in emissions below 1990 levels by 2030. Baseline 1990
emissions 875 MtCO2e (including LULUCF) is provided in the INDC. Target
emissions 525 MtCO2e.
525 MtCO2e
-
Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Qatar, Yemen: Reference
Scenario used as no INDCs submitted.
3115 MtCO2e
3104 MtCO2e
South Africa
REST OF WORLD
Indonesia
Middle East
27
Israel: Per capita emissions target of 7.7 tCO2e by 2030. Projected total
emissions therefore given at 82 MtCO2e.
Jordan: Unconditional 1.5% reduction in emissions below BAU by 2030. BAU
given at 51.028 MtCO2e of emissions is given in INDC. Unconditional target
emissions 50 MtCO2e. Conditional target 12.5% with target emissions 45
MtCO2e.
Lebanon: Unconditional 15% reduction in emissions below BAU by 2030.
Unconditional target emissions provided in a chart in the INDC (36 MtCO2e).
Conditional target of 30% reduction in emissions below BAU. Conditional
target emissions provided in a chart in the INDC (30 MtCO2e)
Oman: target emissions of 88.714 MtCO2e in 2030, 2% reductions below BAU
by 2030. BAU given as 90.524 MtCO2e. Target emissions 89 MtCO2e.
United Arab Emirates: INDC contains list of policies and measures. Overall
impact not quantified. Reference Scenario used.
Algeria: Unconditional 7% reductions in emissions below BAU by 2030.
Conditional 22% reduction in emissions below BAU by 2030. INDC did not
include BAU projection so authors used Reference Scenario emissions (261
MtCO2e) as a proxy. Unconditional target emissions 243 MtCO2e and
conditional target emissions 204 MtCO2e.
Northern Africa
Egypt: Reference Scenario used as no INDC submitted.
Morocco: Unconditional 13% reduction in emissions below BAU by 2030. BAU
(171 MtCO2e) and resulting unconditional target emissions (148 MtCO2e)
provided in INDC. Conditional 32% reduction in emissions below BAU by
2030, target emissions (117 MtCO2e) provided in INDC.
Libya: Reference Scenario used as no INDC submitted.
28
1085–1114 MtCO2e
997 MtCO2e
Tunisia: Unconditional 13% reduction in emissions intensity of GDP by 2030
below 2010. Expected emissions of 62 MtCO2e given in INDC. Conditional 41%
reduction in emissions below BAU by 2030, with expected emissions of 40
MtCO2e given in INDC.
Western Sahara: Reference Scenario used as no INDC submitted.
Bahamas, Bermuda, Cuba, El Salvador, Jamaica, Netherlands Antilles & Aruba,
Nicaragua, Panama, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent & Grenadines: Reference
Scenario used as no INDCs submitted.
Barbados: 44% reductions in emissions below BAU by 2030, also equals to
23% reductions below 2008. 2008 level given as 1,820 ktCO2e. Target
emissions 1.4 MtCO2e.
Belize: INDC contains list of policies and measures. Overall impact not
quantified. Reference Scenario used.
Costa Rica: Carbon neutral economy starting from 2021. 9.4 MtCO2e of net
emissions by 2030.
Rest of Central America
Dominica: 44.7% reductions in emissions below 2014 levels by 2030. Base
year emissions given as 0.164 MtCO2e. Target emissions 0.09 MtCO2e.
Dominican Republic: 25% reduction in emissions below 2010 levels by 2030.
Base year figure taken from the WRI (32 MtCO2e) (WRI, 2015). Target
emissions 24 MtCO2e.
Grenada: 40% reduction in emissions below 2010 levels by 2030. Target
emissions (0.15 MtCO2e) based on chart in INDC.
Guatemala: Unconditional 11.2% reduction in emissions below BAU by 2030.
Unconditional target level from chart in INDC (48 MtCO2e). Conditional 22.6%
reduction in emissions below BAU. Conditional target level from chart in INDC
(42 MtCO2e).
29
445 MtCO2e
422 MtCO2e
Honduras: 15% reduction in emissions below BAU by 2030. BAU provided in
INDC at 28.9 MtCO2e. Target emissions 25 MtCO2e.
Haiti: Unconditional 5% reduction in emissions below BAU by 2030.
Unconditional target emissions 20 MtCO2e from chart in INDC. Conditional
26% reduction in emissions below BAU by 2030. Conditional target emissions
of 16 MtCO2e from chart in INDC.
Trinidad & Tobago: Unconditional target is 1.7 MtCO2e abatement from BAU
in 2030. BAU projection given as 103 MtCO2e in 2030. Unconditional target
emissions calculated 101 MtCO2e. Conditional 15% reduction in emissions
below BAU by 2030. Target emissions 88 MtCO2e.
Armenia: Cumulative 633 MtCO2e emissions between 2015 and 2050. 2030
emissions estimated by dividing 633 MtCO2e equally over the years. Target
emissions calculated as 18 MtCO2e.
Azerbaijan: 35% reduction in emissions below 1990 by 2030. Base year figure
provided in INDC (69.641 MtCO2e). Target emissions 45 MtCO2e.
Rest of the Former
Soviet Union (FSU)
Belarus: 28% reduction below 1990 level by 2030 (139.1 MtCO2e provided in
INDC). Target emissions 100 MtCO2e.
Georgia: Unconditional 15% reduction in emissions below BAU by 2030.
Unconditional target emissions given in INDC (32.66 MtCO2e). Conditional
25% reduction in emissions below BAU. Conditional target emissions given in
INDC. (28.31 MtCO2e).
Kazakhstan: Unconditional 15% reduction in emissions below 1990 levels by
2030. 1990 base year figure taken from the WRI (2015) (293 MtCO2e).
Unconditional target emissions 249 MtCO2e. Separate conditional target of
30% reduction below 1990 by 2030. Conditional target emissions 220
MtCO2e.
30
927–932 MtCO2e
883 MtCO2e
Kyrgyzstan: Unconditional 11.49–13.75% reduction in emissions below BAU
by 2030. BAU projection from chart in INDC (15 MtCO2e). Unconditional
target emissions 13MtCO2e. Conditional 29–30.89% reduction in emissions
below BAU by 2030. Conditional target emissions 10–11MtCO2e.
Moldova: Unconditional 64–67% reductions in emissions below 1990 levels
by 2030. 1990 figure excluding LULUCF given as 43.4 MtCO2e. Unconditional
target emissions 14–16 MtCO2e. Conditional 78% reductions in emissions
below 1990 levels by 2030. Conditional target emissions 10 MtCO2e.
Tajikistan: Unconditional 10%–20% reduction in emissions below 1990 levels
by 2030. Base year emissions given in INDC (25.5 MtCO2e). Unconditional
target emissions 20–23 MtCO2e. Conditional 25–35% reduction in emissions
below 1990 levels by 2030. Conditional target emissions 17–19 MtCO2e.
Turkmenistan: INDC states expected emissions level will be limited to 136
MtCO2e by 2030.
Uzbekistan: Reference Scenario used as no INDC submitted.
Argentina: Unconditional 15% reduction in emissions below BAU by 2030.
BAU provided in INDC (670 MtCO2e). Unconditional target emissions 570
MtCO2e. Conditional target of 30% reduction below BAU by 2030 with target
emissions at 469 MtCO2e.
Rest of South America
Bolivia: INDC contains list of policies and measures. Overall impact not
quantified. Reference Scenario used.
Chile: Unconditional 30% reductions in emissions intensity of GDP below 2007
excluding LULUCF by 2030. Base year emissions excluding LULUCF of 91
MtCO2e from WRI (2015). GDP projections not included in INDC.
Unconditional target emissions excluding LULUCF calculated as 147 MtCO2e
based on GDP projection from the IMF (2015) and OECD (2014) (annual
31
2498 MtCO2e
2256 MtCO2e
average growth of 3.73% between 2007 and 2030). LULUCF emissions in 2010
given as -50 MtCO2e, and authors assumed this to stay constant between 2010
and 2030. GHG target emissions calculated as 97 MtCO2e. Conditional target of
35–45% reduction in emissions intensity of GDP below 2007 excluding
LULUCF by 2030. Conditional target emissions calculated as 66–87 MtCO2e.
Colombia: Unconditional 20% reduction in emissions below BAU by 2030.
BAU given in INDC as 335 MtCO2e. Unconditional target emissions 268 MtCO2e.
Conditional target of 30% with target emissions of 235 MtCO2e.
Ecuador: INDC contains list of policies and measures. Overall impact not
quantified. Reference Scenario used.
Suriname: INDC contains list of policies and measures. Overall impact not
quantified. Reference Scenario used.
Guyana: INDC contains list of policies and measures. Overall impact not
quantified. Reference Scenario used.
Peru: Unconditional 20% reduction in emissions below BAU by 2030. BAU
figure is provided in INDC (298.3 MtCO2e). Unconditional target emissions 239
MtCO2e. Conditional target of 30% reduction; target emissions 209 MtCO2e.
Paraguay: Unconditional 10% reduction in emissions below BAU by 2030.
BAU projection for 2030 of 416 MtCO2e given in INDC. Target emissions 374
MtCO2e. Conditional 20% reduction with target emissions 333 MtCO2e.
Uruguay: INDC listed a series of measures. Target emissions associated with
unconditional elements is given as –1.42 MtCO2e. Total impact from
conditional elements are not given clearly with the exception of LULUCF target
(extra 6 ktCO2e in removals) so conditional target is calculated as –
7.42MtCO2e.
Venezuela: Hypothetical Pre-INDC Reference Scenario used as no INDC
submitted.
32
Afghanistan: 13.6% reductions in emissions below BAU by 2030. BAU given as
48.9 MtCO2e, target emissions given as 42.7 MtCO2e.
Bangladesh: Unconditional 5% reduction in emissions below BAU by 2030.
BAU for the sectors covered is provided in INDC (234 MtCO2e), covering 69%
of greenhouse gases excluding LULUCF. Other GHGs are calculated as 105
MtCO2e and are added to give unconditional target emissions 327 MtCO2e.
Conditional target is 15% reduction, thus same process gives conditional
target emissions 303 MtCO2e.
Bhutan: Remain carbon neutral. 2030 target emissions assume to be at most 0
MtCO2e.
Rest of South Asia
Maldives: Unconditional 10% reduction in emissions on BAU by 2030. BAU
given in INDC as 3.3 MtCO2e. Unconditional target emissions 3MtCO2e.
Conditional 24% reduction in emissions below BAU. Conditional target
emissions 2.5 MtCO2e.
1002 MtCO2e
977 MtCO2e
2679–2859 MtCO2e
2517 MtCO2e
Nepal: Reference Scenario as no INDC submitted.
Pakistan: Reference Scenario as no INDC submitted.
Sri Lanka: Unconditional 7% reduction in emissions below BAU by 2030.
Overall BAU projection is not given in INDC. Reference Scenario estimate for
2030 is 64 MtCO2e, making unconditional target emissions as 60 MtCO2e.
Conditional 23% reduction in emissions below BAU, giving conditional target
emissions 49 MtCO2e.
Rest of South East Asia
Brunei, Macau, Malaysia, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North),
Taiwan: Reference Scenario as no INDCs submitted.
Cambodia: 27% reductions in emissions below BAU (11.6 MtCO2e provided in
33
INDC) by 2030. Target emissions 8 MtCO2e
Laos: INDC contains list of policies and measures. Overall impact not
quantified. Reference Scenario used.
Mongolia: 14% reduction in emissions below BAU by 2030. BAU given in INDC
excluding LULUCF is 51.2 MtCO2e. Target emissions 44 MtCO2e
Myanmar: INDC contains list of policies and measures. Overall impact not
quantified. Reference Scenario used.
Philipines: 70% reduction in emissions below BAU by 2030. BAU is not
provided in INDC. Reference Scenario emissions in 2030 are 257 MtCO2e
making target emissions 76 MtCO2e.
Singapore: 65 MtCO2e allowed emissions. 36% reduction in emissions
intensity of GDP relative to 2005 by 2030. Singapore’s INDC includes a 2005
GHG baseline of 40.9 MtCO2e and intensity figure of 0.176 kgCO2e/S$. Using
GDP projections taken from the IMF (2014) and OECD (2014) (annual growth
of 3.89% on average between2005–2030), target emissions calculated as 68
MtCO2e.
Thaliand: Unconditional 20% reduction in emissions below BAU by 2030. BAU
in 2030 at 555 MtCO2e provided in the INDC. Unconditional target emissions
444 MtCO2e. Conditional target of 25% reduction below BAU by 2030 with
Conditional target emissions at 416 MtCO2e
Angola, Guinea-Bissau, Nigeria, Sudan, Somalia: Reference Scenario as no
INDCs submitted.
Rest of Sub-Saharan
Africa
Burundi: Unconditional 3% reduction in emissions below BAU by 2030
equates to 1.958 MtCO2e of abatement in INDC; conditional 20% reductions
below BAU by 2030 equates to 14.897 MtCO2e of abatement. BAU calculated as
75 MtCO2e. Unconditional target emissions 73 MtCO2e and conditional target
34
2684–2692 MtCO2e
2506 MtCO2e
emissions 60 MtCO2e. Note on INDC: abatement is expressed in Gg in INDC but
the chart suggests this is in MtCO2e, suspect errors in the table.
Benin: Cumulative reduction of 120 MtCO2e (Figures 2 and 3 in the INDC
document) during the period 2020–2030 compared to the BAU scenario. 2030
target emissions from chart in INDC. Target emissions of 32 MtCO2e is sum of 5
MtCO2e from figure 2 and 27 MtCO2e from figure 3.
Burkina Faso: Unconditional 6.6% reduction in emissions below BAU by 2030.
BAU given in INDC at 118.3 MtCO2e. Unconditional target emissions of
111MtCO2e. Conditional 18.2% (21.57 MtCO2e) reduction below BAU by 2030.
Conditional target emissions of 97 MtCO2e.
Botswana: 15% reductions below 2010 levels by 2030. 2010 emissions given
in INDC at 8.307 MtCO2e) given in INDC. Target emissions 7 MtCO2e.
Central African Republic: Unconditional 4.062 MtCO2e of abated emissions.
INDC states 5% of abatement equals 5.5 MtCO2e. BAU calculated to be 110
MtCO2e. Target emissions 106 MtCO2e. Conditional 5% reduction in emissions
below BAU with target emissions 105 MtCO2e.
Chad: Unconditional 18.2% reduction in emissions below BAU by 2030.
Unconditional target emissions 23 MtCO2e provided in INDC. Conditional 71%
reduction below BAU by 2030. Conditional target emissions 8 MtCO2e
provided in INDC.
Côte d’Ivoire: 28% reduction in emissions below BAU by 2030. Target
emissions 25 MtCO2e given in INDC.
Cameroon: 32% reduction in emissions below BAU by 2035. BAU given as 104
MtCO2e in INDC. Target emissions calculated as 71 MtCO2e. Analysis assumes
same level of emissions in 2030.
Democratic Republic of Congo: 17% reduction in emissions below BAU by
2030. BAU in 2030 given in INDC (430 MtCO2e). Target emissions 357 MtCO2e.
35
Comoros: 84% reduction in emissions below BAU by 2030. Abatement of
0.4418 MtCO2e from 0.523 MtCO2e to target emissions of 0.081 MtCO2e.
Cape Verde: INDC contains list of policies and measures. Overall impact not
quantified. Reference Scenario used.
Djibouti: Unconditional 40% reduction in emissions below BAU by 2030.
Unconditional target emissions given as 2.685 MtCO2e. Conditional 60%
reduction below BAU by 2030. Conditional target emissions given as 1.79
MtCO2e.
Equatorial Guinea: 20% reduction in emissions below 2010 levels by 2030.
2010 base year emissions of 26 MtCO2e taken from the WRI (2015). Target
emissions 21 MtCO2e.
Eritrea: Target is to cap CO2 emissions at 1.9 MtCO2e (unconditional) and 0.6
MtCO2e (conditional). BAU for all emissions in 2030 is 6.3 MtCO2e, 3 MtCO2e of
which are of CO2. Target emissions calculated as 5.2 MtCO2e (unconditional)
and 3.9 MtCO2e (conditional).
Ethiopia: 64% reduction in emissions below BAU by 2030. Target emissions at
145 MtCO2e given in INDC.
Gabon: 63% reduction in emissions below BAU by 2025, target emissions of 9
MtCO2e from chart in INDC. Assumed same level of emissions by 2030.
The Gambia: Abatement targets from BAUs for individual sectors. Overall BAU
emissions from chart in INDC are 3.8 MtCO2e in 2030. Unconditional target is
0.4 MtCO2e of abatement from renewables and afforestation gives target
emissions of 3.4 MtCO2e. Conditional 45.4% reduction from BAU gives target
emissions of 2.1 MtCO2e.
Ghana: Unconditional 15% reduction in emissions below BAU by 2030. BAU in
2030 is given in INDC (73.95 MtCO2e). Target emissions 63 MtCO2e.
36
Conditional 45% reduction with target emissions 41 MtCO2e.
Guinea: 13% reduction in emissions below 1994 levels by 2030. Per capita
emissions in 1994 given as 2.1 tCO2e, population given as 7.2 million, and base
year emissions estimated as 15 MtCO2e. Target emissions thus 13 MtCO2e.
Kenya: 30% reduction in emissions below BAU by 2030. BAU in 2030 is given
in INDC at 143 MtCO2e. Target emissions 100 MtCO2e.
Liberia: 15% reduction in emissions below BAU by 2030. Target emissions of
4.5 MtCO2e given in INDC.
Lesotho: Unconditional 10% reduction in emissions below BAU by 2030,
conditional 35% reductions. BAU is not given in INDC. Unable to estimate
Lesotho's target emissions as WRI (2015) database does not cover Lesotho.
Target not quantified.
Madagascar: 14% reduction below BAU for non-LULUCF sector by 2030 and
32% increase (61 MtCO2e) in absorption of LULUCF from BAU. Non-LULUCF
BAU in 2030 is given in INDC at 214 MtCO2e. BAU for LULUCF given at –192
MtCO2e. Target emissions calculated to be -69 MtCO2e, from BAU of +22
MtCO2e
Mali: Abatement from BAU levels for a number of sectors. Table included in
INDC states expected emissions with unconditional target are –34 MtCO2e and
with conditional target is –85 MtCO2e.
Mozambique: 76.5 MtCO2e reductions across the 11 years from 2020 to 2030:
23 MtCO2e by 2024 and 53.4 MtCO2e from 2025 to 2030. Assuming reductions
are linear gives 8.9 MtCO2e reduction from 2030 BAU. BAU is not given in
INDC, Reference Scenario figure of 100 MtCO2e used to calculate estimated
target emissions of 92 MtCO2e.
Mauritania: 4.2 MtCO2e of total abatement equals 22.3% of BAU, meaning BAU
is calculated as 18.84 MtCO2e. 12% of the abatement is unconditional, making
37
unconditional target emissions 18 MtCO2e. 88% of the abatement is
conditional, making conditional target emissions 15 MtCO2e
Mauritius: 30% reduction in emissions on BAU by 2030 (7 MtCO2e). Target
emissions 4.9 MtCO2e
Malawi: Unconditional policies and measures are expected to deliver per
capita emissions of 0.8 tCO2e by 2030. Unconditional target emissions of 21
MtCO2e estimated based on projected population in 2030 of 26 million
(UNDESA, 2015). Conditional elements of the INDC will bring per capita
emissions to 0.7 tCO2e by 2030. Conditional target emissions estimated as 18
MtCO2e
Namibia: Unconditional 2 MtCO2e of abatement below BAU by 2030. BAU
given in INDC (22.6 MtCO2e). Unconditional target emissions thus 21 MtCO2e.
Conditional 20 MtCO2e of abatement below BAU by 2030. Conditional target
emissions 3 MtCO2e.
Niger: Unconditional 3.5% reduction in emissions below BAU by 2030.
Unconditional targets from chart in INDC (0.93 MtCO2e). Conditional 34.6%
reduction in emissions below BAU by 2030. Conditional target from chart in
INDC (0.63 MtCO2e)
Rwanda: INDC contains list of policies and measures. Overall impact not
quantified. Reference Scenario used.
Senegal: Unconditional 5% reduction in emissions below BAU by 2030. Target
emissions from chart in INDC are 36 MtCO2e. Conditional 21% reduction;
target emissions from chart in INDC are 30 MtCO2e.
Sierra Leone: To maintain emissions level close to world's average at 7.58
MtCO2e by 2035. Assume same level for 2030.
Sao Tome & Principe: 0.057 MtCO2e of abatement from BAU in 2030. BAU
given as –0.4 MtCO2e, target emissions –0.5 MtCO2e.
38
Swaziland: INDC contains list of policies and measures. Overall impact not
quantified. Reference Scenario used.
Seychelles: 29% reduction in emissions below BAU by 2030 equates to 0.18
MtCO2e of abatement. BAU emissions calculated as 0.65 MtCO2e, target
emissions calculated as 0.46 MtCO2e.
Togo: Unconditional 11.14% reduction in emissions below BAU by 2030. BAU
given in INDC as 38.9 MtCO2e. Unconditional target emissions 35 MtCO2e.
Conditional target of 31.14% reductions below BAU by 2030. Conditional
target emissions 28 MtCO2e
Tanzania: Conditional 10 to 20% reduction in emissions below BAU by 2030.
Full range of BAU given in INDC is 138–153 MtCO2e. Conditional target
emissions 110–138 MtCO2e.
Uganda: Policies equate to 22% reduction below BAU by 2030. BAU given as
77.3 MtCO2e in 2030. Target emissions 60 MtCO2e
Zambia: 33% reduction in per capita emissions below BAU by 2030. BAU per
capita emissions of 3.313 tCO2 provided in INDC; calculated target per capita
emissions is 2.205 tCO2. Target emissions 45 MtCO2e, based on with 2030
population projection from UN of approximately 20 million.
Zimbabwe: Unconditional 25% reduction in emissions reduction below BAU
by 2030. Unconditional target emissions of 62 MtCO2e from chart in INDC.
Conditional 47% reduction below BAU by 2030. Conditional target emissions
of 43 MtCO2e from chart in INDC.
39
Table 5: Annual emissions (in MtCO2e) showing historical emissions, hypothetical Pre-INDC Reference Scenario and estimated totals for countries that submitted INDCs
by 23 October 2015.
Annual emissions
(million tonnes CO2e)
INDCs
submitted
(as of 23
October
2015)
Hypothetical PreINDC Reference
Scenario
Historical data
1990
2005
2010
2020
2030
Cancún
Pledge
Scenario
(Low)
Cancún
Pledge
Scenario
(High)
INDC
Scenario 1
(Low, ind.
GDP)
INDC
Scenario 1
(High, ind.
GDP)
2020
2020
2030
2030
INDC
Scenario 2
(Low,
national
GDP)
2030
INDC
Scenario 2
(High,
national
GDP)
2030
INDC
Scenario 3
(High,
conditional
targets)
2030
OECD
Canada
EU
Japan
Mexico
Oceania
Rest of Europe
South Korea
Turkey
USA
YES
YES
YES
YES
YES - partial
YES
YES
YES
YES
690
5,050
1,223
571
869
208
318
213
6,021
853
4,672
1,320
712
988
200
634
319
6,849
816
4,275
1,282
755
976
206
767
390
6,472
921
4,037
1,283
839
794
255
848
554
6,691
959
4,007
1,242
966
818
257
772
657
6,808
752
4,037
1,283
672
579
204
520
554
5,144
752
3627
1283
672
467
195
520
554
5144
579
3,126
1,008
759
597
159
512
929
4,028
579
3,126
1,008
759
585
159
512
929
3,780
579
3,126
1,008
759
597
159
512
929
4,028
579
3,126
1,008
759
585
159
512
929
3,780
579
3,126
1,008
623
585
154
512
929
3,780
YES
YES
YES
YES
1,696
3,698
1,253
630
2,789
8,002
2,054
752
2,760
10,501
2,781
506
2,521
14,645
3,888
554
2,576
16,588
5,477
627
1,789
14,426
3,888
554
1,789
14,426
3,888
554
1,172
14,294
6,709
614
1,172
12,810
6,509
398
1,172
16,256
9,285
614
1,172
14,527
9,008
398
1,172
12,810
6,509
398
YES
YES
YES
YES - partial
YES - partial
YES - partial
YES - partial
YES - partial
YES - partial
YES - partial
YES - partial
1,495
3,065
941
901
359
439
801
2,329
377
1,684
5,250
1,871
2,281
429
1,645
536
442
661
1,885
525
2,099
3,164
1,780
2,391
406
2,118
621
439
775
1,925
533
1,975
2,657
1,906
2,492
417
2,563
870
470
934
2,059
708
2,397
2,861
2,133
2,643
432
3,195
1,070
488
1,050
2,244
937
2,836
3,339
1,906
2,492
417
2,538
870
470
934
1,920
708
2,254
2,861
1,906
2,492
417
2,538
870
470
934
1,870
708
2,254
2,861
2,046
2,577
525
3,115
1,114
445
932
2,498
998
2,859
2,692
2,046
2,406
525
3,115
1,085
445
927
2,498
998
2,679
2,684
2,046
2,577
525
3,115
1,114
445
932
2,498
998
2,859
2,692
2,046
2,406
525
3115
1,085
445
927
2,498
998
2,679
2,684
1,700
2,406
525
3104
997
422
883
2,256
973
2,517
2,506
248
286
600
41,215
405
555
600
47,242
440
639
600
49,786
586
712
600
57,406
796
915
600
64,432
550
712
600
53,635
550
712
600
53,053
796
915
600
56,597
796
915
600
54,044
796
915
600
61,135
796
915
600
58,260
796
915
600
52,787
BASICs
Brazil
China
India
South Africa
REST OF WORLD
Indonesia
Russia
Ukraine
Middle East
Northern Africa
Rest of Central America
Rest of FSU
Rest of South America
Rest of South Asia
Rest of South East Asia
Rest of Sub Saharan Africa
NON-SOVEREIGN EMISSIONS
International Aviation
International Maritime
Peat emissions
TOTAL
N/A
N/A
N/A
40
Table 6: Country and regional breakdown of emissions in 2030 accompanying Figures 2a and 2b.
INDC Scenario 2
(Low, national
GDP)
INDC Scenario 2
(High, national
GDP)
INDC Scenario 1 (High,
independent GDP)
Non-Sovereign Emissions
2,310
2,310
2,310
2,310
2,310
2,310
Other non-OECD
1,457
1,452
1,457
1,452
1,408
1,483
Rest of Americas
2,943
2,943
2,943
2,943
2,678
2,733
Middle East
3,115
3,115
3,115
3,115
3,104
3,195
Rest of Africa
3,806
3,769
3,806
3,769
3,506
4,409
Rest of Asia
Brazil, Indonesia, Russia,
South Africa
EU
USA
Other OECD
India
China
WORLD TOTAL
3,857
3,677
3,857
3,677
3,490
3,773
6,409
6,022
6,409
6,022
5,676
7,979
3,126
4,028
4,543
6,709
14,294
56,597
3,126
3,780
4,531
6,509
12,810
54,044
3,126
4,028
4,543
9,285
16,256
61,135
3,126
3,780
4,531
9,008
14,527
58,260
3,126
3,780
4,390
6,509
12,810
52,787
4,007
6,808
5,671
5,477
16,588
64,432
2030 emissions (MtCO2e)
41
INDC Scenario 3 (High,
conditional targets)
Hypothetical
Pre-INDC
Reference
Scenario
INDC Scenario 1 (Low,
independent GDP)
Table 7: Country and regional per capita emissions in 2030 for INDC Scenarios 1–3 accompanying Figure 3.
Population in
2030 according to
the UN31
INDC Scenario 1
(Low, independent
GDP)
INDC Scenario 1
(High,
independent GDP)
INDC
Scenario 2
(Low,
national GDP)
INDC
Scenario 2
(High,
national GDP)
Non-Sovereign Emissions
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Rest of Africa
1,619,266,758
2.4
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.2
Rest of Asia
962,498,332
4.0
3.8
4.0
3.8
3.6
India
1,527,657,988
4.4
4.3
6.1
5.9
4.3
Brazil
228,663,251
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.1
EU
509,282,289
6.1
6.1
6.1
6.1
6.1
Indonesia
South Africa
Other OECD
295,481,797
60,034,391
528,097,920
6.9
8.6
8.7
6.9
8.6
8.7
6.9
8.6
8.7
6.9
8.6
8.7
5.8
8.3
7.9
Rest of Americas
338,631,823
9.7
9.7
9.7
9.7
9.4
China
Other non-OECD
USA
Middle East
Russia
1,415,545,109
150,123,831
355,764,967
190,195,550
138,652,480
10.1
10.2
11.3
16.4
18.6
9.0
6.6
10.6
16.4
17.4
11.5
10.2
11.3
16.4
18.6
10.3
6.6
10.6
16.4
17.4
9.0
6.6
10.6
16.3
17.4
WORLD TOTAL
8,319,896,486
6.8
6.5
7.3
7.0
6.3
2030 per capita emissions (tCO2e)
31
See text in Section 2 for details and source.
42
INDC Scenario 3
(High,
conditional
targets)