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Agenda of the meeting (17/08/06) 1. Presentation of MOSI (progress of the market analysis) 2. Presentation of CEESE (synthesis of climate policies and transports) 3. Presentation of ASTR (new development within the model) 4. Preparation of the users’ committee in October 2006 Next meeting to be held at the end of September ? 5. Website 6. Newsletter ? 7. Varia (intermediary report at the end of December, etc.) 8. Calendar Aviation and the Belgian Climate Policy : Integration options and Impacts ABC Impacts Climate policy and transports : synthesis Content 1. International context : the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol 2. The European situation : distribution of the quotas and the EU-ETS 3. The Belgian “cultural exception” : charge repartition between the federal and the regions 4. How are transports taken into account in the UNFCCC, the Kyoto Protocol, the EU-ETS and the Belgian climate policy ? 5. • Domestic transports • International transports What about the international aviation and shipping ? 1. – International context 1992 : UNFCCC • Climatic stake : stabilization, avoiding dangerous climate change • Common but differentiated responsibility + capacity Annex I countries (industrialised countries : 40) Non-annex I countries (developing countries : 149) • Annual national emission inventory + national communication (direct, and indirect GHGs +precursors : CO, NOx, NMVOC, SO2 ; accounting rules : revised 1996 guidelines for national GHG inventories, IPCC) • Mission assigned to ICAO and IMO • No mandatory objectives (concerning international aviation and marine sectors : not already included in the NEIs) Annex-I countries Non Annex-I countries EU Cyprus and Malta EU(15) Other OECD countries EU(8) Turkey OECD Lichtenstein and Monaco Korea and Mexico Other economies in transition UN - UNFCCC IMO ICAO WMO UNEP IPCC – 1997 : Kyoto Protocol (within the UNFCCC) • Global objective – 5,2% emissions of CO2 eq. compared to the emission level of 1990 • First period of commitment : 2008-2012 (second : 2013 - ) • National registries • Emission trading and flexible mechanisms (JI and CDM) • Annex A : GHG (CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6) + sectors • Annex B : mandatory objectives for Annex I countries : (exception : USA, Australia, Turkey, have not ratified the Protocol) But : No real incentives or sanctions, “hot air” – – 2001 : • Third IPCC assessment report (UNFCCC) • Marrakech Accords (accounting rules for national inventories) 2005 : • Entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol (February 2005) • Beginning of the dialogue on a LT global co-operative approach concerning climatic changes (within the UNFCCC) – 2006 : • Beginning of the negotiations for the figured objectives concerning the second commitment period (post-2012) • Revision of the Revised IPCC 1996 (a.o.: aviation and marine emissions) • Fourth IPCC assessment report at the end of the year – Post-2012 : potential approaches for the revision • • Continuing Kyoto Multi-stage approach - 3E-UE : 3 groups of countries with specific commitments ; - CAN viable framework for preventing dangerous climate change (multi-stage approach + decarbonisation PVD + adaptation) • Contraction & convergence • • • Common but differentiated convergence Triptych approach (e.g. EU-ETS) Sector-based approach - only energy activities and main industry sectors, no strict constraints for global target + annual path + allocation (convergence per capita in 2050) + “cap and trade” system developing countries, no penalty - multi-sector convergence approach • Responsibility for GW (e.g. Brazilian approach) • • Commitment to human development goals with low emissions Global Climate Certificate System (GCCS) simultaneous implementation of reduction measures in industrialized and some developing countries with strict definition, objectives and rules “cap and trade” system 2. European situation – 1996 : EU max “safe climate” level : max +2°C (↔ ? 550 ppm CO2 éq. ) – 1997 : EU global objective in the Kyoto Protocol : - 8% (European bubble) – 1998 : Distribution to EU(15) members states following the triptych approach (energy, industry, domestic sector) Remarks : 1) recent scientific studies fix the maximum level at 450 ppm 2) current projections : stabilisation at 750 ppm … Remark : new 10 member states have limited or no figured objective – – 2005 : Entry into force of the EU-ETS (directives 2003/87/CE + linking) • First period : 2005-2008, then 2008-2012 • Only several sectors covered (big capacities or productions) : energy activities (combustion > 20 MW, mineral oil refineries, coke oven), production and transformation of ferrous metals, mineral industry, paper and pulp industries • GHG taken into account : only CO2 • Quotas allocated to sites by member states without any global ceiling • NAPs and independent verification 2006 : • ECCP – 2006 : Aviation WG final report • Beginning of the revision process concerning the rules and structure of the EU-ETS (potential application after 2012) • European Parliament resolution on reducing the climate change impact of aviation Source : EEA (2006), Annual European Community greenhouse gas inventory 1990–2001and inventory report 2003. 3. Belgian “cultural” exception – 1994 : National programme for CO2 emission reduction (within the context of the UNFCCC and the Rio conference) : few impacts – 1998 : Belgian global objective within the EU and the Kyoto Protocol : - 7,5% (reference 1990 : 138,7 Mt CO2 eq. 146,2 Mt CO2 eq.) – 2001 : Co-operation Agreement on Climate (National Commission on Climate) – 2002 : National climate plan 2002-2012 (federal-regional / sectors ; existing /scheduled /conceptual measures) + distribution principle (= Belgian “cultural” exception) – 2004 : “Burden sharing” agreement between the three regions and the federal state (no legal constraint) Remark : national and regional emission projections are ≠ + NAP Kyoto charge distribution between the federal and the regions 1990 Quota 2008-2012 Emission projections to 2010 (BaU) Effort compared to BaU 2010 Linear burden 4,0 4,1 4,6 0,5 (10,9%) 0,9 (19,5%) W Region 87,9 83,4 92,0 8,6 (9,3%) Fl Region 54,3 50,2 53,5 3,3 (6,1%) 0,0 - 2,4 0,0 2,4 (0%) 146,2 135,3 150,1 Mt CO2 eq. B-C Region Federal state TOTAL 14,8 (9,8%) 10,7 (11,6%) 3,3 (6,1%) 0 (0%) 14,8 (9,8%) + federal reduction measures Source : Maréchal K. & Choquette V., La lutte contre les changements climatiques : des engagements internationaux aux politiques régionales, Courrier Hebdomadaire du CRISP n°1915, 2006. 4. – Transports and climate policies UNFCCC/Kyoto : • Domestic and “territorial” transports included in national inventories (based on fuel consumption / emission factors / etc.), no common accounting rules • Air and marine international transports not included in national inventories (but emissions related to fuel sold to ships or aircraft engaged in international transport have to be reported separately) • – Biomass fuels = 0 direct CO2 emissions in inventory EU : • Transports not included in the EU-ETS • Economic discrimination between domestic, terrestrial and other international transport modes : taxes on trip or fuel, state support, dutyfree E.g. Belgium : no VAT on leisure and business international travels by air, no VAT on business international travels by bus, rail or sea but well on leisure ones, VAT on car fuel. Source : EEA (2006), Annual European Community greenhouse gas inventory 1990–2001and inventory report 2003. 5. – International transports UNFCCC/Kyoto : • Effort to take aviation and maritime transport into account in the future (explicitly mentioned in the official texts of the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol, with reference to the role ICAO and IMO) UNFCCC negotiation scheme for international aviation and shipping UNFCCC COP SB I IMO MEPC • environmental preoccupation related to MARPOL • in favour of CO2 index SB STA ICAO CAEP • no sustainability objective (only efficiency) • in favour of an open emission trading scheme (inside UNFCCC scheme or on a voluntary base) UNFCCC scheme : SB STA’s allocation options for aviation 1. No allocation 2. % of national emissions (Parties) 3. Proportional to international bunker fuel sales 4. In function of airlines and shipping companies nationality (* mar.) 5. Departure/arrival country (* av.) 6. Departure/arrival country with separation passengers/cargo 7. Country of origin (passengers and goods) 8. Emission location Problems : cap ?, open scheme ?, climate impacts covered ?, etc. Bunker fuel sales (2002) for international aviation and shipping and related CO2 emissions CO2 emissions related to bunker fuel sales Trends 1990-2002 3,8 Mt + 30% 107,4 Mt + 59% CO2 emissions related to bunker fuel sales Trends 1990-2002 Belgium (Kyoto : ~136 Mt) 21,9 Mt + 68% EU (25) (Kyoto : ~3.876 Mt) 146 Mt + 33% International aviation Belgium (Kyoto : ~136 Mt) EU (25) (Kyoto : ~3.876 Mt) International shipping Source : Olivier and Peters (2004) based on IEA (2004) in « Climate impacts from international aviation and shipping », Wit and al., 2004. – EU level : • If efforts at the international level judged inadequate, EU will act on its own • EU policy options concerning international aviation (Commission 2005) Refused options : - traffic restrictions (volume) standards regulation access restriction (airports) voluntary agreements with airlines departure/arrival tax Existing options to be reinforced : - raising awareness of consumers better air traffic management R&D support energy tax on commercial aviation better competitiveness rail sector Key policy instruments : - charge or tax on emissions and impacts - integration in the EU-ETS (amendment 2003/87/CE or “opt-in“) – Interactions between EU-ETS and the UNFCCC scheme : • Geographical covering of the aviation / shipping impacts • Climate impacts taken into account • Link between Kyoto quotas and EU-ETS certificates (avoid double counting : parallel treatment of both registers, necessity to have an equivalence between Kyoto quotas and EU-ETS certificates) problem if aviation is integrated in the EU-ETS and not in the Kyoto scheme – Options from the EU Parliament resolution (“Policy Mix”, July 2006) : • “Integration” in the EU-ETS (cf. Commission 2005) Specific market for aviation 2008-2012 All aviation companies concerned (cf. Commission 2005) Strict emission ceiling for the sector at the EU level in coherence with the Kyoto objectives, taking into account previous actions Allocation by auctioning Limitation of certificates purchase on the “global” EU-ETS Other gasses than only CO2 also taken into account • Fuel taxation (cf. Commission 2005) • Actions on air traffic management, biofuels, research on alternative fuels, technology improvement (cf. Commission 2005) • NOx-related airport tax (cf. Commission 2005) To be decided : geographical covering / level of the emission ceiling and year of reference / treatment of non-CO2 emissions /etc. On the agenda : legislative proposition from the Commission at the end of the year Agenda of the meeting (17/08/06) 1. Presentation of MOSI (progress of the market analysis) 2. Presentation of CEESE (synthesis of climate policies and transports) 3. Presentation of ASTR (new development within the model) 4. Preparation of the users’ committee in October 2006 Next meeting to be held at the end of September ? 5. Website 6. Newsletter ? 7. Varia (intermediary report at the end of December, etc.) 8. Calendar