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Climate Change October 29, 2007 By: Mr. Slater (Ms. Slater’s father-in-law) The Greenhouse Effect CO2 Levels are More Than 30% Higher Than Pre-industrialized Levels 380 372ppm in 2002 CO2 Concentration (ppmv) 360 340 * 320 300 280 260 * * * * * * ** ** * * * * ** * ** * * * ** * * ** 900 * * * * ** 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere are now at levels unprecedented in at least the past 400,000 years The Carbon Cycle What is a Carbon Sink? Green House Gases (GHGs) Carbon Dioxide Methane Nitrous oxide Sulphur hexafluoride Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC’s) Perflurocarbons Up to 20,000 times more potent than CO2 Come from diverse sources: from wetlands and cow burps to transportation and industry Average Global Temperature Has Increased by Approximately 0.60 Since the Late 19th Century Temperature Patterns in Canada will Change Substantially by 2050 What are GCM’s? Heat Waves in Canadian Cities are Expected to Become More Frequent Fredericton 20802100 Quebec 20412069 20202040 Toronto 19611990 London Winnipeg Calgary Victoria 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Number of days above 300 C … and warmer weather means the possible arrival of exotic diseases 80 Much of Canada’s Coastline is Sensitive to Sea-level Rise … and melting sea ice has implications for Arctic sovereignty The General Effects • Higher temperatures will effect ecosystems • Flooding of coastal areas • Storms more severe and frequent • Floods and Droughts Extreme Events Can Cause Many Types of Disasters Lightning damage Floods Fires Wind damage Ecological disaster Loss of life Structural damage The Risk of Forest Fires Will Increase Coastal Erosion Means Buildings, Roads and Railways Will Have to be Moved …and Finally There are Small Risks of Impacts of Catastrophic Proportions Primary Sources of GHGs Burning fossil fuels Industry Transportation Refrigeration systems Deforestation Agriculture and livestock Volcanoes The problem is not just about increasing sources, but also the reduction of ‘sinks’ Not Just Warming Some places will experience cooling Longer Growing Season Animals winter outside Changes in water distribution – flooding and droughts Melting glaciers and rising sea level Spread of Tropical Diseases Storms will be more frequent and more violent Impacts of Climate Change Impacts are felt on many different scales Local – urban heat Regional – Arctic, Prairies, Maritimes National – Becomes a warmer country Global – Environmental refugees Impacts in Other Countries Have Implications for Canada Environmental refugees 3 billion more in water stressed regions 200 million more displaced by sea level rise 80 million more malnourished Offshore disasters Financial assistance Peace making/keeping International conflict over dwindling natural resources Darfur (Sudan) State of Play of Climate Change Science is clear – serious problem that needs to be dealt with immediately Must be dealt with at global level Emission reductions can take place anywhere in world Global Convention 1992 Kyoto Protocol 1997 Protocol ratified in 2002, in effect 2003 Climate Change Plan Canada’s “Kyoto Gap” Projected 2010 Business as Usual Emissions: 809 Mt 900 850 Million tonnes (Mt) CO2 equivalent 800 2001 Emissions: 720 Mt 750 Business as Usual “Kyoto Gap”: 270 Mt 700 650 600 550 1990 Emissions: 607 Mt Kyoto Target -6%: 571 Mt 500 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Per cent difference between 2002 emissions and Kyoto targets -5 *These countries have reached or surpassed their Kyoto target in 2002 but in France and the United Kingdom emissions started to increase in 2002 Canada Spain Austria Denmark United States Japan Italy Portugal Australia Belgium Finland The Netherlands Switzerland European Union Norway Germany New Zealand* France** United Kingdom* -10 Sweden* … and Canada is Furthest From its Target 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 So What is Needed? New sources of energy New technologies New ways of doing business Responsible extraction and use of resources New social/community values Regulations, taxes, trade in emissions Incentives, rewards, recognition Leadership What Has Happened Since Kyoto? Main elements of program in place but very slow implementation Conservative government backed out but now is legally obligated to follow-up on Kyoto commitments 30% increase in CO2 emissions Commissioner on Environment and Sustainable Development “Achieving success on a problem as pervasive as climate change demands that all levels of government, industry and business groups, science, academia, and civil society organizations collaborate.” “…developing and deploying new technology will play a key role in building a healthier and more sustainable future. Canadians will have the opportunity to contribute and compete at home and globally.” Johanne Gelinas, 2006 Commissioners Report to Parliament Canada’s Clean Air Plan (Oct 2006) New baseline of 2003 Intensity targets up to 2020 Emission caps for sectors 2020 to 2030 National target 45-65% reduction by 2050 Kyoto not mentioned Canada subject to Kyoto penalties Good enough? Takeaways Climate change is real and already happening “greatest challenge to humanity this century” Global approach essential but Canada not pulling its weight Technology is seen as being integral to combat climate change Full long-term consequences unknown The End