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Agenda of the meeting (17/08/06)
1.
Presentation of MOSI (progress of the market analysis)
2.
Presentation of CEESE (synthesis of climate policies and transports)
3.
Presentation of ASTR (new development within the model)
4.
Preparation of the users’ committee in October 2006

Next meeting to be held at the end of September ?
5.
Website
6.
Newsletter ?
7.
Varia (intermediary report at the end of December, etc.)
8.
Calendar
Aviation and the Belgian Climate Policy :
Integration options and Impacts
ABC Impacts
Climate policy and transports : synthesis
Content
1.
International context : the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol
2.
The European situation : distribution of the quotas and the EU-ETS
3.
The Belgian “cultural exception” : charge repartition between the
federal and the regions
4.
How are transports taken into account in the UNFCCC, the Kyoto
Protocol, the EU-ETS and the Belgian climate policy ?
5.
•
Domestic transports
•
International transports
What about the international aviation and shipping ?
1.
–
International context
1992 : UNFCCC
•
Climatic stake : stabilization, avoiding dangerous climate change
•
Common but differentiated responsibility + capacity
 Annex I countries (industrialised countries : 40)
 Non-annex I countries (developing countries : 149)
•
Annual national emission inventory + national communication
(direct, and indirect GHGs +precursors : CO, NOx, NMVOC, SO2 ;
accounting rules : revised 1996 guidelines for national GHG inventories,
IPCC)
•
Mission assigned to ICAO and IMO
•
No mandatory objectives
(concerning international aviation and marine sectors : not already included
in the NEIs)
Annex-I
countries
Non Annex-I
countries
EU
Cyprus and Malta
EU(15)
Other OECD
countries
EU(8)
Turkey
OECD
Lichtenstein and Monaco
Korea
and Mexico
Other economies
in transition
UN - UNFCCC
IMO
ICAO
WMO
UNEP
IPCC
–
1997 : Kyoto Protocol (within the UNFCCC)
•
Global objective – 5,2% emissions of CO2 eq. compared to the
emission level of 1990
•
First period of commitment : 2008-2012 (second : 2013 - )
•
National registries
•
Emission trading and flexible mechanisms (JI and CDM)
•
Annex A : GHG (CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6) + sectors
•
Annex B : mandatory objectives for Annex I countries :
(exception : USA, Australia, Turkey, have not ratified the Protocol)
But : No real incentives or sanctions, “hot air”
–
–
2001 :
•
Third IPCC assessment report (UNFCCC)
•
Marrakech Accords (accounting rules for national inventories)
2005 :
•
Entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol (February 2005)
•
Beginning of the dialogue on a LT global co-operative approach
concerning climatic changes (within the UNFCCC)
–
2006 :
•
Beginning of the negotiations for the figured objectives concerning
the second commitment period (post-2012)
•
Revision of the Revised IPCC 1996 (a.o.: aviation and marine emissions)
•
Fourth IPCC assessment report at the end of the year
–
Post-2012 : potential approaches for the revision
•
•
Continuing Kyoto
Multi-stage approach
- 3E-UE : 3 groups of countries with specific commitments ;
- CAN viable framework for preventing dangerous climate change
(multi-stage approach + decarbonisation PVD + adaptation)
•
Contraction & convergence
•
•
•
Common but differentiated convergence
Triptych approach (e.g. EU-ETS)
Sector-based approach
- only energy activities and main industry sectors, no strict constraints for
global target + annual path + allocation (convergence per capita in 2050)
+ “cap and trade” system
developing countries, no penalty
- multi-sector convergence approach
•
Responsibility for GW (e.g. Brazilian approach)
•
•
Commitment to human development goals with low emissions
Global Climate Certificate System (GCCS)
simultaneous implementation of reduction measures in industrialized and
some developing countries with strict definition, objectives and rules
“cap and trade” system
2.
European situation
–
1996 : EU max “safe climate” level : max +2°C (↔ ? 550 ppm CO2 éq. )
–
1997 : EU global objective in the Kyoto Protocol : - 8% (European bubble)
–
1998 : Distribution to EU(15) members states following the triptych
approach (energy, industry, domestic sector)
Remarks : 1) recent scientific studies fix the maximum level at 450 ppm
2) current projections : stabilisation at 750 ppm …
Remark : new 10 member states have limited or no figured objective
–
–
2005 : Entry into force of the EU-ETS (directives 2003/87/CE + linking)
•
First period : 2005-2008, then 2008-2012
•
Only several sectors covered (big capacities or productions) :

energy activities (combustion > 20 MW, mineral oil refineries, coke
oven),

production and transformation of ferrous metals,

mineral industry,

paper and pulp industries
•
GHG taken into account : only CO2
•
Quotas allocated to sites by member states without any global ceiling
•
NAPs and independent verification
2006 :
•
ECCP – 2006 : Aviation WG final report
•
Beginning of the revision process concerning the rules and
structure of the EU-ETS (potential application after 2012)
•
European Parliament resolution on reducing the climate change
impact of aviation
Source : EEA (2006), Annual European Community greenhouse gas inventory 1990–2001and inventory
report 2003.
3.
Belgian “cultural” exception
–
1994 : National programme for CO2 emission reduction (within the
context of the UNFCCC and the Rio conference) : few impacts
–
1998 : Belgian global objective within the EU and the Kyoto
Protocol :
- 7,5%
(reference 1990 : 138,7 Mt CO2 eq.  146,2 Mt CO2 eq.)
–
2001 : Co-operation Agreement on Climate
(National Commission on Climate)
–
2002 : National climate plan 2002-2012
(federal-regional / sectors ; existing /scheduled /conceptual measures)
+ distribution principle (= Belgian “cultural” exception)
–
2004 : “Burden sharing” agreement between the three regions and
the federal state (no legal constraint)
Remark : national and regional emission projections are ≠
+ NAP
Kyoto charge distribution between the federal and the regions
1990
Quota
2008-2012
Emission
projections to
2010 (BaU)
Effort
compared to
BaU 2010
Linear burden
4,0
4,1
4,6
0,5 (10,9%)
0,9 (19,5%)
W Region
87,9
83,4
92,0
8,6
(9,3%)
Fl Region
54,3
50,2
53,5
3,3
(6,1%)
0,0
- 2,4
0,0
2,4
(0%)
146,2
135,3
150,1
Mt CO2 eq.
B-C Region
Federal state
TOTAL
14,8 (9,8%)
10,7 (11,6%)
3,3
(6,1%)
0
(0%)
14,8 (9,8%)
+ federal reduction measures
Source : Maréchal K. & Choquette V., La lutte contre les changements climatiques : des engagements
internationaux aux politiques régionales, Courrier Hebdomadaire du CRISP n°1915, 2006.
4.
–
Transports and climate policies
UNFCCC/Kyoto :
•
Domestic and “territorial” transports included in national
inventories (based on fuel consumption / emission factors / etc.), no
common accounting rules
•
Air and marine international transports not included in national
inventories (but emissions related to fuel sold to ships or aircraft engaged
in international transport have to be reported separately)
•
–
Biomass fuels = 0 direct CO2 emissions in inventory
EU :
•
Transports not included in the EU-ETS
•
Economic discrimination between domestic, terrestrial and other
international transport modes : taxes on trip or fuel, state support, dutyfree
E.g. Belgium :
no VAT on leisure and business international travels by air,
no VAT on business international travels by bus, rail or sea but well on leisure ones,
VAT on car fuel.
Source : EEA (2006), Annual European Community greenhouse gas inventory 1990–2001and inventory
report 2003.
5.
–
International transports
UNFCCC/Kyoto :
•
Effort to take aviation and maritime transport into account in the
future (explicitly mentioned in the official texts of the UNFCCC and the
Kyoto Protocol, with reference to the role ICAO and IMO)
UNFCCC negotiation scheme for international aviation and
shipping
UNFCCC
COP
SB I
IMO
MEPC
• environmental
preoccupation related to
MARPOL
• in favour of CO2 index
SB STA
ICAO
CAEP
• no sustainability
objective (only efficiency)
• in favour of an open
emission trading scheme
(inside UNFCCC scheme
or on a voluntary base)
UNFCCC scheme :
SB STA’s allocation options for aviation
1.
No allocation
2.
% of national emissions (Parties)
3.
Proportional to international bunker fuel sales
4.
In function of airlines and shipping companies nationality (* mar.)
5.
Departure/arrival country (* av.)
6.
Departure/arrival country with separation passengers/cargo
7.
Country of origin (passengers and goods)
8.
Emission location
Problems : cap ?, open scheme ?, climate impacts covered ?, etc.
Bunker fuel sales (2002) for international aviation and shipping
and related CO2 emissions
CO2 emissions related to
bunker fuel sales
Trends 1990-2002
3,8 Mt
+ 30%
107,4 Mt
+ 59%
CO2 emissions related to
bunker fuel sales
Trends 1990-2002
Belgium
(Kyoto : ~136 Mt)
21,9 Mt
+ 68%
EU (25)
(Kyoto : ~3.876 Mt)
146 Mt
+ 33%
International aviation
Belgium
(Kyoto : ~136 Mt)
EU (25)
(Kyoto : ~3.876 Mt)
International shipping
Source : Olivier and Peters (2004) based on IEA (2004) in « Climate impacts from international aviation and
shipping », Wit and al., 2004.
–
EU level :
•
If efforts at the international level judged inadequate, EU will act on its
own
•
EU policy options concerning international aviation (Commission 2005)
 Refused options :
-
traffic restrictions (volume)
standards regulation
access restriction (airports)
voluntary agreements with airlines
departure/arrival tax
 Existing options to be reinforced :
-
raising awareness of consumers
better air traffic management
R&D support
energy tax on commercial aviation
better competitiveness rail sector
 Key policy instruments :
- charge or tax on emissions and impacts
- integration in the EU-ETS (amendment 2003/87/CE or “opt-in“)
–
Interactions between EU-ETS and the UNFCCC scheme :
•
Geographical covering of the aviation / shipping impacts
•
Climate impacts taken into account
•
Link between Kyoto quotas and EU-ETS certificates (avoid double
counting : parallel treatment of both registers, necessity to have an
equivalence between Kyoto quotas and EU-ETS certificates)

problem if aviation is integrated in the EU-ETS
and not in the Kyoto scheme
–
Options from the EU Parliament resolution (“Policy Mix”, July 2006) :
•
“Integration” in the EU-ETS (cf. Commission 2005)

Specific market for aviation 2008-2012

All aviation companies concerned (cf. Commission 2005)

Strict emission ceiling for the sector at the EU level in coherence with
the Kyoto objectives, taking into account previous actions

Allocation by auctioning

Limitation of certificates purchase on the “global” EU-ETS

Other gasses than only CO2 also taken into account
•
Fuel taxation (cf. Commission 2005)
•
Actions on air traffic management, biofuels, research on alternative
fuels, technology improvement (cf. Commission 2005)
•
NOx-related airport tax (cf. Commission 2005)
To be decided : geographical covering / level of the emission ceiling and year of
reference / treatment of non-CO2 emissions /etc.
 On the agenda : legislative proposition from the Commission at the end of the
year
Agenda of the meeting (17/08/06)
1.
Presentation of MOSI (progress of the market analysis)
2.
Presentation of CEESE (synthesis of climate policies and transports)
3.
Presentation of ASTR (new development within the model)
4.
Preparation of the users’ committee in October 2006

Next meeting to be held at the end of September ?
5.
Website
6.
Newsletter ?
7.
Varia (intermediary report at the end of December, etc.)
8.
Calendar