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Comparing International Environmental Regimes
CITES
Montreal
Protocol
Kyoto Protocol
Global Issues
Species loss
ozone
depletion
climate change
Scientific basis of problem
ecology
physical
sciences
earth system
sciences
Scientific tools
population
census
modeling,
remote
sensing
modeling,
ecosystem
experiments
Certainty of problem
very high
very high
high
Uncertainty of outcome with no-action
low
very low
medium
Amount of mandated science & data collection
medium
high
high
Updating of regime with current science
medium
high
high
Economic impact of the regime
low
moderate
very high
Participation by industry/private sector
low
high
low
Reliance on NGOs for data & enforcement
high
low
medium
International participation
very high
very high
high
U.S. Agreement
yes
yes
no
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Data source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center
This figure was originally prepared by Robert A. Rohde
Found at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Carbon_Emission_by_Region.png
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Since 1979, the size of the summer polar ice cap has shrunk more than 20 percent. 5
(Illustration from NASA) (http://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/qthinice.asp)
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For the Midwestern U.S.
• Warming will be greater for winter than summer
• Warming will be greater at night than during the
day
• A 3oF rise in summer daytime temperature triples
the probability of a heat wave
• Growing season will be longer (8-9 days longer
now than in 1950)
• More precipitation
• Likely more soil moisture in summer
• More rain will come in intense rainfall events
• Higher stream flow, more flooding
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Montreal Protocol vs. Kyoto Accord
• International Institutions aimed at solving Global
Commons Problems
• Montreal Protocol enacted 1987
• Kyoto Protocol enacted 1997
• Montreal Protocol has been effective
• Kyoto Protocol has had less success
• Why?
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Timeline Kyoto Accord
 1988 IPCC established to investigate climate change
 1992 UN conference in Rio de Janeiro creates FCCC
 1995 Berlin Mandate, suggests need for legal action, drawdown
targets and timetables.
 1996 Geneva Conference, Berlin targets will not be met.
 1997 U.S. Senate declares that U.S. will not comply without
participation by developing nations.
 1997 Parties meet in Kyoto. Target 5% emissions reduction from 1990
levels
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Timeline Cont.
• 1998 Buenos Aires conference discusses flexible
mechanisms/experimental jurisprudence
• 2000 Disagreement between U.S and EU over limits on international
trading of emissions allowances and sequestration requirements
• 2001 IPCC third report finds Earth’s Climate to be warming more
rapidly that previously predicted
• 2001 Bush declares Kyoto Protocol dead
• 2008 President-Elect Barack Obama promises to get U.S. “Back on
Track” with Kyoto Protocol
• Fall 2009 - “No Agreement Expected” at Copenhagen (NY Times - Nov.
15, 2009)
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Three Primary Mechanisms of Kyoto
1. Emissions trading
 Country with excess emissions may transfer some of its authorized
emissions to another country that would otherwise exceed its emissions
commitment
2. Joint implementation
 Participating Annex I Party may implement a reduction project in the
territory of another Annex I Party and count the emissions reduction units
against its own target
3. Clean Development Mechanism
 Annex I Party may implement a project in a developing country and use
the resulting certified emissions reductions to meet its own target
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Kyoto Market-Based Mechanisms
•
Article 17: Emissions trading=Carbon market
– Parties with commitments under Kyoto accept targets—expressed as levels of allowed
emissions between 2008-2012—for limiting or reducing emissions. Countries with
emission units to spare can sell excess capacity to countries over their targets.
– Trading units=carbon dioxide, removal unit (RMU) based on land-use change and forestry
activities
•
Article 12: Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) allows an Annex B country to
implement an emission-reduction project in developing countries. A CDM project
must provide emission reductions that are additional to what would otherwise have
occurred.
– Trading units=Certified emission reduction (CER) credits
•
Article 6: Joint implementation (JI) allows an Annex B country to earn emission
reduction units (ERUs) from an emission-reduction or emission removal project in
another Annex B Party.
– Trading units=Emission reduction units (ERUs)
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Kyoto Protocol Eligibility Requirements
• Ratified Kyoto Protocol
• Calculated assigned amount of carbon dioxide equivalent
emissions.
• Have a national system for estimating emissions and removals
of greenhouse gases within a territory.
• Have a national registry in place to record and track the
creation and movement of trading units and annually report
such information to the secretariat.
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Kyoto Protocol Monitoring Mechanisms
• Registry systems to track and record transactions
(International transaction log in Bonn, Germany).
• Reporting done by submitting annual emission inventories
and national reports at regular intervals.
• Compliance system ensures commitments are met and
provides help if needed.
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Public Domain
Found at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Kyoto36-2005.png
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Why Did Montreal Succeed, and Kyoto (so far) Fail?
• Kyoto Faced a Tougher Problem
• Complexity of Causation
– What proportion of Climate Change is caused by GHGs, what is
due to natural climate cycles?
• Removed Threat
– Climate Change does not pose an imminent human health threat.
• Dispersion/Prevalence of Emitters
– More so than ODS, GHGs are produced worldwide in huge
quantities. The scale of production makes reductions more
difficult.
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Why Kyoto Fails Cont.
• Industry has failed to develop alternative
technologies
– Montreal’s success relied on industry to develop the technologies
necessary for reduction
– Because the U.S. has failed to impose strict Kyoto type
regulations, industry leaders have faced little pressure to improve
technology
– The cost of emissions reduction is thus to heavy for the rest of the
world to bear
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Future Hope for Kyoto Protocol and
Reduction of GHGs
 The Montreal Protocol sets a reassuring precedent with regard to uncertain
science
 Experimental Jurisprudence allows for Laws to adapt to changing science
 The new U.S. administration has promised to address Climate Change
through new regulation
 As industry leaders (Energy Producers, Auto Manufacturers) are forced to
adapt, the technologies necessary for positive change will be developed.
 Once these technologies are developed in the US and EU, they can be applied
at low cost elsewhere in the world.
 Clean energy technologies
 Clean transportation technologies
 More effective sequestration of GHGs
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Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative
(RGGI)
• Effort by ten Northeast and Mid-Atlantic
states to limit greenhouse gas emissions
• First mandatory and market-based CO2
reduction program in US
• Requires a 10% reduction in emissions by
2018
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RGGI
• Composed of individual trading markets in each
state
• Power plants can use the allowance given to show
compliance with state regulations
• August 2006: published a model rule
• First compliance period for each state’s budget
trading program begins January 1, 2009
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RGGI Members
• Participating states: Maine, New Hampshire,
Vermont, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey,
Delaware, Massachusetts, and Maryland
• These states represent over 46 million people
• Observer states and regions: Pennsylvania,
District of Columbia, Rhode Island.
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Similar Agreements / Bills
• On 27 September 2006, California Governor Arnold
Schwarzenegger signed into law the bill AB 32, also known as
the Global Warming Solutions Act, establishing a timetable to
reduce the state's greenhouse-gas emissions, which rank at
12th-largest in the world, by 25% by the year 2020. This law
effectively puts California in line with the Kyoto limitations, but
at a date later than the 2008-2012 Kyoto commitment period.
• As of 27 July 2008, 850 US cities in 50 states, the District of
Columbia and Puerto Rico, representing over 80 million
Americans support Kyoto after Mayor Greg Nickels of Seattle
started a nationwide effort to get cities to agree to the protocol.
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RGGI Cap and Trade Program
• Require electric power generator to hold allowances
covering carbon dioxide emissions.
• Use proceeds of allowance auctions to support lowcarbon-intensity solutions
• Employ offsets from emission reductions or
sequestration at sources beyond electricity sector to
help companies meet obligations.
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Climate Change Mechanisms
• Kyoto Protocol
– Three market-based mechanisms
– 1. Emissions trading
– 2. Clean Development
Mechanism (CDM)
– 3. Joint Implementation (JI)
– Stimulate development through
technology transfer and
investment
– Carbon market
– Help countries with Kyoto
commitments to meet targets by
reducing emissions or removing
carbon in other countries in a
cost-effective way.
– Encourage private sector and
developing countries to
contribute to emission reduction
efforts
• RGGI
– Establish a multi-state carbon dioxide
emissions budget (cap) that decreases
gradually until 10 percent lower than
start by 2018.
– Allowance tracking system:
•
•
•
Version 1.1: Allows general accounts to
be established and managed to support
participation in first allowance auction.
Version 1.2: Will provide for ability to
transfer carbon dioxide allowances
among general accounts and establish
compliance accounts before first
allowance auction.
Version 2.0: Includes carbon dioxide
allowance awards and all allocations by
participating states, tracking of
allowances, transfer of allowances
among compliance and general
accounts, tracking of reported carbon
dioxide emissions from regulated
sources, and tracking of offset project
status and carbon dioxide offset
allowance awards by participating
states.
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Kyoto, RGGI Similarities
• Multi-party cap-and-trade system that establishes
a carbon market for limiting and reducing
greenhouse gas emissions, particularly carbon
dioxide.
• Utilize proceeds for technology transfers and
clean development projects.
• Require tracking and reporting of emissions
reductions and transactions
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Kyoto, RGGI Differences
• Kyoto
– Free allowances
– Emissions reductions can
come from any sector
– No binding cap
– CDM is a voluntary program
without certainty and the
ability to convert reductions
into offsets, which results in
low investments.
• RGGI
– Allowance auction establishes
price per ton of carbon
– Emissions reductions targeted
at electric power utilities
– Binding cap at 10% below
current levels by 2018
– Provides creator and buyer
certainty through conversion
of reductions into offsets
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How the Clean Air Act Deals with
Climate Change
•
The Clean Air Act uses federal and local regulations to cut down on green house
gas emissions, typically caused by burning fossil fuels.
•
National standards and goals are set and states are expected to comply
•
Funds research so that problems can be identified and addressed
•
One mechanism for dealing with climate change is to reduce gas consumption by
20% in the next 10 years.
•
Many provisions of the Clean Air Act include ways to reduce emissions through
transportation mechanisms.
– Increased fuel efficiency on cars
– Catalytic converters
– Reducing cars on the road through public transportation
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