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Towards a Carbon-Neutral Future: Scenario-based Assessment of Climate-induced Risks to Regional Energy Production and Trends in the Kansas City Area Jimmy Adegoke Chris Green Center for Applied Environmental Research (CAER) University of Missouri-Kansas City Climate Impacts Assessment External Stresses Institutional Barriers Climate Research Community Climate Impacts Science Managed Natural Resource Systems climate - Seasonal/interannual climate forecasting - Anthropogenic climate change projections Nature Institutions CLIMATE IMPACTS SCIENCE humans - Resource Managers nature - Policymakers - User Communities • Although the prediction of a subset of possible future climate conditions or scenarios can be helpful, a vulnerability assessment of risk to climate and other environmental stress is the most useful guide that science can provide to policy makers. Adaptation & Change Credit: The UW Climate Impacts Group (CIG) People Driven – Regional Focus Agriculture Water Resources Energy Health Motivation: • Increase regional resilience to climate variability and change • Produce science useful to the decision making community An understanding of the patterns and consequences of past climate variability, policy responses and their impacts is essential for preparing for future changes in climate. Climate Protection in Kansas City MO Timeline 1996 The Environmental Management Commission (EMC) was created. 2001 The EMC created the KC Sustainability Plan to holistically address city operations, codes and ordinances, and regional cooperation. 2004 City adopts a mandatory LEED Silver Rating for all new city buildings. 2005 The EMC negotiated curb-side recycling in 2005. Mayor Kay Barnes signs the Climate Protection Partnership in 2005. 2006 The EMC’s recommended Climate Protection Resolution was passed. 2007 The EMC led efforts in 2007 to implement cost-effective mitigation strategies to reduce GHG emissions from city operations below 30% 2000 levels by 2020. Climate Protection in Kansas City MO GHG Emissions for Kansas City, Missouri 3,500,000 3,000,000 In metric tons 2,500,000 Year 2,000,000 2000 2005 1,500,000 2020 1,000,000 500,000 0 Residential Commercial Per Category Industrial The Greater Kansas City Chamber of Commerce Climate Protection Partnership • Formed by the Greater Kansas City Chamber of Commerce • 145 area businesses have signed on • Obligations include: – conduct an inventory of greenhouse gas emissions – set clear reduction goals that maximize economic opportunity and minimize business and regulatory risk UMKC Center for Applied Environmental Research (CAER) provides Technical Consulting Services to the Partnership Carbon Emission Accounting for Swope Community Enterprises (SCE) Swope Community Enterprises Swope Community Enterprise Services Swope Health Services Swope Community Builders Swope Center for Career Advancement Applied Urban Research Institute Carbon Footprint Calculator 2007 Carbon Costs for SCE Total: • $270,326 for electricity • $18,272 for natural gas • $65,580 for automotive fuel • $138,101 for paper purchases • $9,365 for waste disposal____ $501,644 SCE’s Total Footprint • • • • • 5400 tons from electricity 1170 tons from automotive fuel 24 tons mainly from paper products 59 tons from natural gas usage 5 tons from waste disposal_____________ 6,659 tons of CO2 – 9 tons sequestered 6,650 tons of CO2 Mitigation Projections Percent of Total Savings ($19,000) Hot water 1% Lighting 7% Heating and cooling 43% Electronics and electrical equipment 49% A Residential “Savings” Assessment Potential savings of policies encouraging energy efficiency measures can be calculated region-wide 1. 2. 3. 4. Household numbers by city and county are provided in Census’s Tiger data available from esri.com Energy usage data available by region on DOE’s website Average reductions in energy usage and bills using specific energy efficient devices are available on Energy Star website Reductions in energy usage from energy efficient devices and measures can be subtracted from total household energy data per city or county in an excel spreadsheet Census Bureau Households per city/county DOE x Energy usage per household New Energy Usage Energy Star - Energy usage reductions = Reduced energy usage per household The spreadsheet can be displayed in ArcGIS and potential savings can be graded using ArcGIS statistical analysis tools. What is the potential for KCMO to move toward a carbon-neutral future? Scenarios for a Carbon Constrained World 1. UMKC Center for Applied Environmental Research (CAER) is conducting this study on behalf of the Kansas City Environmental Management Commission (EMC) 2. Goal is to identify risks and opportunities from future climate change to specific sectors in Kansas City Metropolitan Area The Hazard-Vulnerability Paradigm • The hazard-vulnerability paradigm focuses on the protection of society by emphasizing assessment of risk associated with climate and other environmental stress and/or hazards. • This approach quantifies the sensitivity of individual sectors such as transportation, health, agriculture, energy etc to a specific hazard and is therefore, more appropriate as guides to Policy Makers, than trying to predict only a subset of possible future climate conditions. Defining the Scope • Study boundaries 1. Urban area – KCMO city limits 2. Surrounding area – census designated metropolitan area, fifteen counties and over 120 cities or MARC ninecounty area Source: http://www.marc.org/members.htm http://www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kansas_City_Metropolitan_Area.htm Identifying Stakeholders and Partners 1. Identify stakeholders of each sector a) Determine sector composition and key stakeholders b) Research climate-impact studies conducted by government agencies, private institutions, or other entities that are relevant to particular sectors Energy Sector Stakeholders a) Power Production Companies – KCP&L, b) Commercial & Residential Consumers c) County & City Governments d) Regulators Phase II 2. Sectoral interviews and focus groups a) Conduct interviews and focus groups with sector stakeholders to discuss climaterelated perceptions, impacts, adaptations, and mitigation methods 3. Sector surveys a) Based on the interview results, construct an online survey instrument to collect information on the impacts from specific extreme weather events on individual sectors Kansas City’s Energy Sector Electricity Natural Gas Propane Coal Natural Gas Wind Consumption Residential Generation Commercial Industrial Household Electricity Use Specific Climate Impacts! Integrated Impacts Assessment Regional Climate Model – CAER will analyze archived climate data to examine intensity, frequency, and duration of sector impacting events – A regional climate model will be used to simulate impacts based on IPCC Scenarios. – Climate model outputs will be used to drive an economic model to quantify regional economic impacts of climate change. DICE/RICE – Regional dynamic Integrated model of Climate and Economy (1996) – Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and Economy (1990) – Connects climate change and economic impacts – Economic damages (or opportunities) are calculated as a function of sector composition Regional Climate Impacts Assessment: Problems and Prospects 1. Confidence in future climate change projections is increasing, but uncertainties remain 2. We know less about the impacts from regional climate change and local vulnerabilities 3. Lack of support for local decision making and risk analyses for the business community Political will to develop policy and technology options that are feasible and cost effective is growing National Response to the Climate Change Challenge – Pace Initially Slow; Now Picking Up July 10, 2008 US House of Rep. Select Committee on Energy Independence & Global Warming Hearing: “Global Warming Effects on Extreme Weather” July 10, 2008 Washington DC