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Climate Predictions and Projections Ants Leetmaa Program Manager Contributions from: Jin Huang, Ming Ji, Arun Kumar; and Jim Todd Climate Predictions and Projections Program Performance Objectives • Improve climate predictive capability from weeks to decades, with increased range of applicability for management and policy decisions • Reduce uncertainty in climate change projections through timely information on forcing and feedbacks contributing to changes in the Earth’s climate • Understand and predict the consequences of climate variability and change on marine ecosystems Climate Predictions and Projections Program Requirements: Legislative • Global Change Research Act: This act mandates the development of a research program whose goal is to understand climate variability and its predictability • Weather Service Organic Act: Outlines NOAA’s responsibility to produce climate forecasts • Coastal Zone Management Act: Requires understanding and predicting long-term climate change which may have large impacts in the coastal zone (such as global warming and associated sea level rise) • Strategic plan for the Climate Change Science Program (CCSP): requires reduced uncertainty in projections of how the Earth’s climate may change in future. Climate Predictions and Projections Program Requirements: NOAA Mission • Understand and predict climate variability on timescales ranging from intraseasonal through seasonal to decadal and beyond • Monitor, assess, and forecast climate • Improve climate models to reduce uncertainty in the projections of Earth’s climate • Improve knowledge of observed variability and change of the Earth’s past and present climate and environment • Understand and predict long-term climate change and evaluate its impacts on the coastal zone Climate Predictions and Projections Program Capabilities: 1 • Operational Predictions, Projections and Products: – To provide operational predictions and products from intraseasonal-to-decadal time scales – To provide climate assessments and projections in support of policy decisions with objective and accurate climate change information Climate Predictions and Projections Program Capabilities: 2 • High-end Climate/Earth System Model Development: – To develop and implement the next generation of climate and Earth System models and to transition improved models into operations – Resources reside in the Environmental Modeling program under the Weather and Water goal Climate Predictions and Projections Program Capabilities: 3 • Applied Research and Product Development: – To improve operational predictions and projections – Develop new climate products – To sustain an applied research capability in understanding, attributing climate variability and its predictability Climate Predictions and Projections Program Capabilities:4 • Test Models against observations and define requirements for observing systems to support forecasts and improve model: – Based on model simulations and predictions studies, provide observational requirements for improving climate predictions and projections Climate Predictions and Projections Program Outcomes and the End-State • The long-term outcomes: – NOAA has world-class Earth System Models providing the best climate predictions and projections available. – Following users’ requirements develop new climate predictions and projections products. – NOAA maintains a suite of routine climate outlooks, climate projections, and climate assessments. – NOAA’s internal and external research community maintained by sustained by research funding to enhance NOAA's climate forecasts, assessments, and applications products. – Provide observational requirements to GEOSS for improving climate outlooks and projections. Climate Predictions and Projections Climate Services and Products • Current Prediction Products – – – – – – Operational monthly/seasonal outlooks Seasonal hurricane outlook Days 6-10, 8-10 outlooks Drought Monitoring and seasonal outlook Seasonal heat index and wind chill outlook ENSO outlook Climate Predictions and Projections Climate Services and Products • Current Informational Products: – Contributions to IPCC assessments – Climate Attribution reports – Observational system requirement reports Climate Predictions and Projections Unique Role of the Program in the NOAA Climate Goal • Providing operational predictions, projections, and information reports – Operational climate outlooks – Climate change projections – Attribution reports • Provide a mechanism for transition-to-operations (the Climate Test-Bed; GAPP Core Project) • Develop user required climate products and applications • Promote understanding of climate variability and change, and its application for enhancing predictions and products • Linking observations with climate predictions and projections Climate Predictions and Projections Functional Structure of the P&P Program Capability 1 Capability 3 &4 Climate Predictions and Projections Participating NOAA Line Offices • NOAA Research – GFDL – NOAA Climate Program Office • Climate Dynamics and Experimental Prediction (CDEP) • Climate Prediction Program for Americas (CPPA) • Climate Variability and Predictability (CVP) • National Weather Service – National Centers for Environmental Predictions • CPC • EMC – Office of Hydrology Climate Predictions and Projections Participating External Agencies/Organizations • International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) • National and international working groups (CRC; CCSP; CLIVAR; GAPP; GEWEX; IOC;WMO;…) • Academia and research community external to NOAA • Numerous bi-lateral and multi-lateral international agreements Climate Predictions and Projections Current Activities in the Program • Operational climate forecasts on seasonalto-interannual time scales and services (Climate Prediction Center) • Model Development for climate predictions and projections • Climate projections and decadal climate predictions • Transition-to-Operations Climate Predictions and Projections Current Activities in the Program • Climate Dynamics and Experimental Predictions – Applied research centers – assessments and predictions of global climate variability and its regional implications • Climate Prediction Program for Americas – Improving operational intraseasonal to interannual climate prediction and the hydrological applications in the Americas • Climate Variability and Predictability – To observe, model and understand patterns of climate variability longer time scales Climate Predictions and Projections The Role of Competitive Programs • Competitive Research – Address long-term needs (science driven future projects) – Merit based through competition – Mission oriented but not “directed” – Open to external and internal community • Directed Research – Address short-term needs (e.g., improve operations) – Primarily done by the internal NOAA community • Climate Test-bed example – Competitive externally lead transition projects – Base funded (NCEP) internal transition projects – Base resource allocated to support transition projects Climate Predictions and Projections Relationship with the Other Programs in the Climate Goal Regional Decision Support Program Climate and Ecosystems Program Predictions and Projections Program Climate Observations and Analysis Program Climate Predictions and Projections Climate Forcing Program Program Outcome and Related Performance Measures • NOAA has world-class Earth-System Models – Number of improved model components • Following users’ requirements develop new products – Number of improved products – Number of new products under development • NOAA maintains a suite of climate outlooks – Climate Predictive Index: A weighted average of operational skill on intraseasonal, seasonal, and decadal time scales – Intraseasonal prediction skill- research – Seasonal prediction skill-research – Decadal prediction skill-research • NOAA’s internal and external research community maintained by sustained research funding – Number of information products Climate Predictions and Projections End Users and Beneficiaries • General public, private sector, Regional, and National Managers in Water Resources, Ecosystem, Agriculture, Energy, Transportation, and Public Heath Sectors: – The program provides operational forecasts and outlooks of intraseasonal to interannual variations and intradecadal trends. • International Coastal Ecosystem Management, Fisheries, Public Health, Regional and National Managers: – The program provides objective information about climate change projections in support of making informed policy decisions related to mitigation and adaptation strategies related to global change. • Climate Observation and Analysis, Regional Decision Support, and Climate and Ecosystems Programs under the Climate Goal Climate Predictions and Projections Highlights and Past Successes • • • • • • • • • • • Climate Process Teams Climate Model Evaluation Project Completion of the field phase of NAME Successful Hurricane outlooks Improved SI prediction techniques Development of Application Products Initiation of Climate Test-Bed Annual Climate Attribution Reports Contributions to IPCC AR4 Development of Drought Prediction Clarifying the role of oceans in global climate • NARCAPP Climate Predictions and Projections GFDL Simulation of Atmospheric Circulation in a Coupled Mode are Among the Best Average of rankings by R.M.S. error for each of 20 circulation, precipitation, TOA energy balance indices Climate Predictions and Projections Z200 Trends Reanalyses and Climate of 20th Century Simulation Trend over last 40 years Coupled model shows some ridging, but simulations could be better – especially in yearly mean and locations Climate Predictions and Projections Simulating and Understanding Active and Inactive Atlantic Tropical storms/hurricanes Seasons 1982 – Inactive year Observed (Aug.-Oct.), n=4 1995 – Active year Observed (Aug-Oct.), n=15 Simulation 2: 48-hr nudging, n=6 Simulation 2: 48-hr nudging, n=14 GFDL Zetac nonhydrostatic regional model, 18km resolution, with large-scale interior nudging Climate Predictions and Projections Climate Predictions and Projections Objective Consolidation of Different SI Prediction Tools CONSOLIDATION IMPROVES SKILL BY 12% Climate Predictions and Projections Multi-Model Framework for Attribution of Climate Anomalies Observed Sfc. Temp. Average Sfc. Temp. Simulated by 5 AGCMS Climate Predictions and Projections Pilot T126 Uncoupled GLDAS/LIS/Noah: 1979-1995 NCEP/DOE Global Reanalysis Surface Forcing Vol. Soil Moisture 0-200 cm July 1988: Drought Summer Climate Predictions and Projections GFS/Noah reduced longstanding high bias of GFS/OSU over east half of CONUS in the warm season: Example shown for 09-25 May 2005 Mean 17-day surface latent heat flux (W/mm**2) for the 12-36 hour GFS forecast. Ops: GFS/OSU Test: GFS/Noah Climate Predictions and Projections North America REGIONAL REANALYSIS Long-term set of consistent climate data on a regional scale for the North American domain (1979present) (REGIONAL REANALYSIS DOMAIN) NCEP/ETA MODEL 32 KM Spatial Resolution; 3 Hourly Temporal Resolution Superior to NCEP/NCAR Global Reanalysis due to: 1) Use of a regional model 2) Advances in modeling and data assimilation since 1995: • • • Precipitation assimilation Direct assimilation of radiances Land-surface model updates Climate Predictions and Projections Budget Impacts and FY05 and FY06 Priorities Budget Line Impact Weather/Climate Connection Slowdown in improving Intraseasonal forecasts Climate Observation and Services Program Slowdown in development of new prediction products Climate Modeling Center Reduce outlay for developing decadal predictive capability Competitive Programs No increases in various grants programs influencing research support Climate Predictions and Projections Future Directions and Priorities Climate Predictions and Projections 10 Year Plan Where we are now Seasonal forecasts for temperature and precipitation with limited skill and regionality Developing capability for attribution of recent major climate anomalies Projections of future climate limited by uncertainties in forcings, carbon cycle feedbacks, and limited regionality Process research, hypothesistesting and diagnostic studies not obviously linked to forecast skill improvements and new products Our near term goals (‘07-’09) Develop and implement strategy with community to improve range and skill of forecast products. Implement systematic research forecasting program Implement routine capability for attribution of recent and past climate anomalies taking into account natural and anthropogenic effects Implement Earth System Modeling capability with improved components related to forcings and feedbacks. Provide high resolution projections for users Implement systematic research program to assess potential predictability and improve models Climate Predictions and Projections Where we plan to be 2020 Region specific climate projections based on the Earth System models Skillful Seamless suite of Forecasts and products utilizing multi- earth system models Real time attribution capability to predict potential climate surprises and respond to new climate questions Asses various technological mitigation activities and their impacts on global and regional environmental changes Forecast products of the impacts on the environment and ecosystems on a global and regional scale Desired End State (based on FY0812 Planning) • Initial State in FY08: – Improved operational seasonal forecasts – Experimental seasonal forecasts based on multi-model ensembles – Develop an understanding of decadal trends – Experimental decadal prediction – Application models for drought, fire, water resources – Earth system models for next sets of national and international assessment – Better knowledge of uncertainties in climate projections – Development of a vigorous research-to-operations program with implementation of Climate Test-bed Climate Predictions and Projections Desired End-State (based on FY0812 Planning) • End State in FY12 – Improved operational seasonal forecasts based primarily on dynamical techniques – A broader suite of climate forecast products and services (extending to health, energy, ecosystems, disaster mitigation etc.) – IPCC AR5 in 2012 and reduced uncertainty in the projection of future climate – Transition decadal forecasts into operations – Estimate of likelihood of abrupt climate change – A robust research-to-operations program implemented Climate Predictions and Projections Predictions and Projections: An Approach to Attain Desired EndState Decision support products: management & policy Operational Forecasts Performance metrics Transition: Test bed Research Forecasts, Projections and Product Development Structured Model Experiments •NOAA, national, international Process and diagnostic research •Climate variability and change •Abrupt change •Forcings Program Model Development and Computers (in W&W: Environmental Modeling Program) Observing Program Climate Predictions and Projections Performance metrics Performance metrics How do we get There? Develop a Protocol for Linking Research to Improved Capabilities: A Possible Process Develop a “life cycle” approach (finite life time projects) for two tracks • • Areas where existing predictability studies show promise of enhanced skill Where national/international programs (or other considerations) indicate needed research foci – with goal to increase predictive understanding Steps • • • • • • • Establish priority areas via: a) results from predictability studies, b) other research, c) AGM (or otherwise) high payoff/relevant areas Finalize the list based on the input from the research community (SAB; ARCs; …) Include research needs in AOs of the appropriate program (CDEP, CPPA, CVP) Fund a group of proposals focusing on identified research needs Monitor progress yearly At the end of the 3-year funding cycle, prepare a “summary assessment report” Results of relevance will be transitioned either to systematic research fcst category or to operations via CTB Climate Predictions and Projections How to get There? Developing a NOAA Capability for Multi-Model Ensembles for Attribution and Prediction • What we have now: – C20C simulations with different natural and anthropogenic forcings – Seasonal Diagnostics Consortium AMIP simulations forced with global SSTs – MM ensemble predictions at IRI (based on tier-2 approach) – Empirical-Dynamical prediction system at Climate Diagnostics Center Climate Predictions and Projections How to get There? Developing a NOAA Capability for Multi-Model Ensembles for Attribution and Prediction • What is the goal for 2012: – A multi-model tier-1 SI prediction capability that would include several national models – Multi-model ensembles for regional downscaling – Linking to application models – Formalization of climate attribution and predictability assessment activity as a NOAA requirement – An ability to perform “on-demand” AGCM runs for attribution and predictability assessments – A data distribution capability to enhance community involvement in the attribution and predictability aspect of climate variability Climate Predictions and Projections Future Directions: Intraseasonal Predictions • Improved week2 skill score • Develop a capability to predict climate extremes for week 2,3,4 • Develop a predictive understanding of the impacts of climate on the statistics of extreme events, including hurricane Climate Predictions and Projections Future Directions: Seasonal-toInterannual Predictions • Improved skill of SI Predictions – Establish a systematic community based multi-model forecasting capability/infrastructure – Develop a dynamical understanding of trends – Incorporate impacts of other ocean basins in SI forecasts – Systematic predictability assessments to establish baseline predictability limits • Implementation of a routine attribution capability • Implement drought monitoring, forecasting, and attribution capability • Develop an understanding of the influence of climate on environment • Develop new forecast products Climate Predictions and Projections Future Predictions: Decadal-toCentennial Climate Variability and Trends • Develop experimental decadal forecast • Understand the contributions of natural and anthropogenic effect on the major climate anomalies of 20th Century • Understand feedback processes important of abrupt climate change • Reduce uncertainty of future climate projections • Improve Earth System Model Capability Climate Predictions and Projections Predictions and Projections: FY0812 Products • Future Operational Forecasts, Projections and Products • Operational and research seasonal to interannual forecasts • • • • • • • • • • • • • An objective drought monitor and forecast system Seasonal hydrologic outlooks Seasonal malaria outlooks Experimental decadal forecasts Experimental seasonal air quality outlooks Yearly attribution reports on previous year’s climate WMO Ozone Assessment CCSP Synthesis and Assessment products Energy related seasonal outlooks Dynamical seasonal hurricane outlooks Attribution studies on climatic impacts on ecosystems Seasonal outlooks for terrestrial carbon budgets Available online forecasts, projections, structured numerical experiments for impact and application studies • Future IPCC Assessment Reports • Fire potential outlooks Climate Predictions and Projections New environmental forecast products will be feasible Major fires Agricultural production at 50%, blowing dust Health warning: Limit outdoor activities; expect brownouts major fisheries regime change likely Air quality alerts – 75% of days Frequent floodings and Asian dust threats continue Swimming and Fishing prohibited High danger of toxic CO2 releases Expect fisheries downturn; health threats African bacteria alerts Possible Threats-Summer 2020: hot, dry and unhealthy Climate Predictions and Projections Contribution of Prediction and Program to the Climate Goal Priorities Climate Predictions and Projections P &P Program Actions Leading to Implementation of NIDIS P&P Program Structure Operational Forecasts & Products Research Forecasts and Products Predictability Studies Process Research and Hypothesis Testing Activities contribution to development of NIDIS Objective model-based drought-relevant forecasts High resolution drought monitoring (nowcasts – utilizing various LDAS products) Multi-model land and climate forecasts (coupled & off line), e.g. a national drought forecsting capability High resolution downscaling capabilities Research forecasts utilizing dynamic vegetation & river runoff Decadal predictability studies (utilizing global tropical information) Coupled & uncoupled studies to understand 20th C. droughts Climate of last 1000 years – modeling/data studies to understand potential for prolonged droughts & possible 21 st C surprises Projections for 21st C. exploring probabilities for future droughts Assessing impacts of Indo-Pacific SST variability and trends on U.S. droughts Assessing impacts of Atlantic decadal variability on U.S. droughts North American research into understanding and predicting hydroclimatic regimes Climate Predictions and Projections Seasonal Hydrologic Prediction System: A Multi-Model Framework soil moisture streamflow, soil moisture, local scale (1/8 degree) weather inputs snowpack Hydrologic model spin up INITIAL STATE NCDC met. station obs. up to 2-4 months from current 1-2 years back LDAS/other real-time met. forcings for spin-up gap snow water equivalent, runoff Multiple Hydrologic Models Ensemble forecasts SNOTEL SNOTEL / MODIS* Update Update ESP traces (40) CPC-based outlook (13) NCEP CFS ensemble (20) NSIPP ensemble (9) Now Source: Lettenmaier Climate Predictions and Projections Month 6 - 12 P&P Program Contributions in Support of CCSP CCSP Synthesis Report Description 3.1 Climate models and their uses and limitations, including sensitivity, feedbacks, and uncertainty analysis 3.3 Climate extremes including documentation of current extremes. Prospects for improving projections 3.2 Climate Projections for research and assessment based on emissions scenarios developed through CCTP 1.1 Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere- steps for understanding and reconciling differences 1.3 Reanalysis of historical data for key atmospheric features. Implications for attribution of causes of observed change Climate Predictions and Projections P&P Program Contributions in Support of Ecosystems • Development of Earth System models in support of coastal nutrient production and runoff • Model based attribution (and future projection over the next few decades) of significant physical and biological changes to climate variability • Increased understanding of how variability in climate and ecosystem are linked Climate Predictions and Projections Next Frontier for NOAA: Ecological Forecasting (Nutrient delivery to the coasts) Courtesy C. Vorosmarty, UNH Climate Predictions and Projections Appendix Climate Predictions and Projections Addressing the Environmental Challenges of the 21st Century Ecological Forecasting Applications Requiring ocean – atmosphere forecasts from weather to climate timescales Transoceanic Pollution and Climate Extreme Events Energy- Weather and Climate Drought and Water Resources Climate Predictions and Projections Multi-Model Framework for Attribution of Climate Anomalies OBS June 1998-May 2002 (The Perfect Oceans for Drought) MODEL Climate Predictions and Projections Understanding and Prediction of Decadal Atlantic Variability and links to Changes in Hurricane Activity – a Research Program at GFDL Simulating and understanding climate and hurricanes Understanding decadal variability in atmospheric conditions impacting hurricane formation Composite of hurricanes in Gulf of Mexico and ocean surface temperatures summer 2005 - what is link between these? Understanding and ultimately forecasting state of Atlantic variability Contrary to NOAA press release, data suggest Atlantic overturning circulation is slowing down August-October Vertical shear - observed vertical shear - modeled Ocean temperatures in hurricane formation area result from trends and (natural) decadal variability Simulating decadal Atlantic hurricane activity Model hindcasts Next step - develop understanding of causes Protecting the public with world’s best operational hurricane forecast system Climate Predictions and Projections A significant anthropogenic contribution to observed warming Note: Uses large-scale nudging Climate Predictions and Projections # of models that predict increase in precipitation by 2100 in A1B scenario, out of 20 models used by IPCC/AR4 Climate Predictions and Projections Minimum spring total ozone: Simulated (3 runs 1960 to 2100) Observed (19792003) Climate Predictions and Projections Predictability of North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation Climate Predictions and Projections North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation Index Climate Predictions and Projections Preliminary Results: Aerosol-Warm Cloud Interactions TOA flux change (W m-2) from preindustrial to present-day Distribution of cloud droplet numbers (cm-3) at 844 mb Annual global mean Indirect effects: -1.8 W m-2 CO2: +1.5 W m-2 -2 Cloud Forcing (W m ) 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 -100 -120 -140 Shortwave cloud forcing (W m-2) -2 Cloud Forcing (W m ) 0 July -20 Process-based Satellite -40 -60 -80 Empirical Standard AM2 -100 -120 -140 90S 60S 30S 0 30N 60N 90N Source: Ming et al., JAS, in review, 2005; Ming et al., JAS, in press, 2005; Ming et al., JGR, 110, D22206, doi:10.1029/2005JD006161, 2005. Climate Predictions and Projections Nutrient and CO2 Flux Hindcasts Observed surface NO3 (uM) Observed CO2 Flux (mol m-2 yr-1) Modeled surface NO3 (uM) Modeled CO2 Flux (mol m-2 yr-1)c Climate Predictions and Projections Replacing the ocean component of the climate model has a significant impact on the SST error • Implies a strong role for the ocean model in the coupled simulation • Unique capability to have multiple ocean models in coupled system MOM-based CM2.1 (in IPCC) HIM-based CM2.2 (pre-tuning) Climate Predictions and Projections Climate Process Teams (CPTs) • NSF/NOAA has funded CPTs between climate labs (GFDL, NCAR) and Universities to improve physical parameterizations in climate models. – Interaction of (Ocean) Eddies with Mixed Layers (EMILIE) • http://www.cpt-emilie.org/ – (Ocean) Gravity Current Entrainment • http://www.cpt-gce.org/ – Low-Latitude Cloud Feedbacks • http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~breth/CPT-clouds.html • Teams include: - Observationalists - Process Modelers and Theoreticians - Model Developers - Climate Modeling Center participants Already delivering improved parameterizations! Climate Predictions and Projections An Example of CPT Parameterization Legg et al., 2005 Improvements With thick plumes, both interfacial shear mixing and drag-induced near-bottom mixing are needed Interior Ri# Mixing Only Actively mixing Interfacial Layer Shear Ri# Param. appropriate here. Interior Ri# + Drag Mixing Well-mixed Bottom Boundary Layer Mixing driven by bottom stresses Resolved mixing (LES) Observed profiles from Red Sea plume from RedSOX Courtesy CPT member H. Peters (U. Miami) Climate Predictions and Projections HIM 10 km HIM 10 km MITgcm 500m x 30m Global Mean Methane Trends 1790 • Model with emissions held constant from year-to-year captures much of observed rise in the 1990s. 1780 1770 1760 • Wetland pulse in 1998 is needed to capture magnitude post-1998. 1750 OBS 1740 constant emis 1730 time-varying anthro 1720 time-varying anth+bio 1710 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 • Trends in OH and temperature contribute to the CH4 rise, followed by a leveling off in the late 2006 1990s. Climate Predictions and Projections Aerosol Model Evaluation MOZART Sulfate (SO4=) Observations Climate Predictions and Projections 200 mb Height Observation Model 1986-2000 1961-1975 El Niño Events El Niño : • Before IWP (Indian-western Pacific) warming (1961-75), cold and wet conditions (200 mb troughs) prevail over U.S. • After IWP warming (19862000), ridge response to IWP forcing reduces strength of the trough anomaly. La Niña Events 1986-2000 1961-1975 Observation Model La Niña : • Before IWP warming, warm and dry conditions (200 mb ridges) prevail over U.S. • After IWP warming, response to IWP forcing enhances ridge anomaly still further. Climate Predictions and Projections 20th and 21st century Sahel rainfall in CM2 B1 A1B (CM2 mean) A2 A2 A1B B1 Climate Predictions and Projections Impact of AMO on Northern Pacific Variability EOF 1 of Northern Pacific winter SST (1901-2000) Regression of winter 500mb geopotential height (m) on PC 1 of Northern Pacific winter SST (1949-2000) OBS MODEL X2.4 Climate Predictions and Projections Code Development & Model Configuration atmos atmos ocean ocean ocean CM2.0 dob: spring ‘04 land CM2.1 dob: fall ‘04 Each of the two sets of IPCC experiments represents ~2,600 model years of integrations. The CM2.0 & CM2.1 experiments required 30% to 60% of GFDL’s computing resources for ~12 months and generated >300 TB of model output files. Climate Predictions and Projections sea ice Code Development & Model Configuration atmos atmos ocean ocean ocean CM2.0 dob: spring ‘04 done: Oct ‘04 land sea ice CM2.1 dob: fall ‘04 done: Jan ‘05 ***CM2.x Standardization Output Files Model ofOutput Files*** GFDL In-House Research & Model Evaluations (part of GFDL’s “traditional” science) Share CM2.x output with authors of US Climate Change Science Program (US CCSP) reports Ship CM2.x model output to IPCC/PCMDI archive in Livermore CA (~4TB CM2.x data shipped) >300 IPCC WG1 registered users Climate Predictions and Projections Making CM2.x model output & documentation accessible via the GFDL Data Portal nomads.gfdl.noaa.g ov (no registration, wider range of users) Improving Predictions over North America: Accomplishments - NAME (North American Monsoon Experiment) - LDAS (Land Data Assimilation System) - Land model in NCEP Climate Forecast System - Drought monitoring and prediction (NIDIS) - EPIC (East Pacific Investigation of Climate) - Transition of research to NCEP and NWS operations - North America Regional Reanalysis - Climate-based hydrologic forecasts - the NCEP CFS Climate Predictions and Projections Elements of a Comprehensive Ongoing Analysis • Enhancing and managing the observational database – • Ongoing analysis: – – – • Post 1979 reanalysis with goal of continuous climate record Post 1950 reanalysis with same goal Post 1850 surface NH oriented Continental-scale regional reanalysis at very high spatial resolution Stewardship and dissemination – • Continually update most recent reanalyses (CDAS) Use OSEs and OSSEs to document impact of continuing observing system changes Provide feedback to observing system developers/operators Periodic reanalyses – – – – • Archeology, new sensors, continuity and feedback Ensure that the products are useable Applied research – – Develop improved methods and products Intended to solve problems identified within program STATUS: PRIORITIES: MERRA (NASA satellite-era effort) moving forward NOAA planning begun National and International Coordination Program Management in NOAA Climate Predictions and Projections Regional climate models have been developed to explore biases seen in Global climate models SST (°C) contours, wind vectors, and precipitation (mm/day color) COUPLED MODELING: State of the art global coupled models (top panels) exhibit biases in the mean state such as a double ITCZ and west-shifted cold tongue, when compared to TMI satellite observations (bottom left). One way to explore whether these biases arise from local or global processes is to construct a regional coupled model forced at the lateral boundaries with prescribed data. Preliminary investigations with a regional model (bottom right) show a significant reduction in bias. GFDL-CM2.1 TMI MPI/ECHAM IPRC ROAM Climate Predictions and Projections EPIC is leading to new parameterizations and improved general circulation models of the eastern tropical Pacific Chlorophyll based parameterization of solar transmission has been implemented in NCAR CCM and is superior to Jerlov type. Comstock et al. (2004) Raymond et al. (2004) Infrared brightness temperature can be predicted based on surface wind speed andClimate convective inhibition Predictions and Projections Derived formula for cloud base drizzle rate useful for GCMs UW Experimental West-wide hydrologic prediction system climate model output Real-time Ensemble Forecasts CPC official forecasts ESP as baseline fcst 1. 2. Downscaling VIC hydrologic simulations Ensemble Hindcasts (for bias-correction and preliminary skill assessment) * ESP extended streamflow prediction (unconditional climate forecasts run from current hydrologic state) (after Lettenmaier) West-wide forecast products streamflow soil moisture, snowpack tailored to application sectors fire, power, recreation Climate Predictions and Projections NOAA Seasonal Drought Outlook Climate Predictions and Projections NOAA/CPC Climate Services Major Product Categories Expert Assessments (e.g., Hazards, ENSO, Drought, Degree Days, published Bulletins) Pre-1994 1994-99 2000-06 4 6 8 Outlooks (e.g., Week-2, Monthly, Seasonal, Drought, Hurricane Season, UV, Heat) 4 7 10 Data, Monitoring, & “Nowcasting” (e.g., Reanalysis, Ozone, AO/NAO, ENSO) 8 12 16 Partnerships (e.g., NOAA Lab MOUs, EPA, USDA, NASA, IRI, USAID) 4 7 11 Note: Each major category/example/count above can represent a complex set of dozens of climate and weather products unique to NOAA. For example, the on-line Climate Diagnostics Bulletin alone presents over 70 product. Climate Predictions and Projections Prototype 8-14-day Forecast from The North American Ensemble Forecast System EXPERIMENTAL 8-14-DAY FORECAST 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND 2-M TEMPERATURE (DEG F) MADE DEC 02, 2005 VALID DEC 10-16, 2005 (NAEFS) The U.S., Canada and Mexico, through NAEFS, will develop a standard set of basic products from calibrated models. End products derived from basic products will be developed to suit each country’s requirements. A very early version of one such end product, developed at CPC, is shown above. Climate Predictions and Projections Reanalysis (OACS) is Essential Given continuing improvement in our understanding of climate observations and the need for long time series, periodic reprocessing is a hallmark of every climate observing system. Europe, Japan and the US have ongoing efforts. NOAA, NASA, and DOE collaboration is essential. National and international coordination, and an OACS, are essential to a successful GEOSS program Workshop on Ongoing Analysis of the Climate System 18-20 August 2003, Boulder, Colorado Climate Predictions and Projections