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Climate Change and Its Impacts University of Washington Program on Climate Change Who we are… Graduate Students, University of Washington Program on Climate Change • Shelley Kunasek • Justin Minder What have you heard? Climate Climate Change Our Questions Today • • • • • What are Greenhouse Gases? How do they cause warming? How are humans affecting temperatures? How do we know? Can we predict how the Earth’s climate might change? • What might happen here in Washington? Greenhouse Gases Greenhouse gases GHG GHG GHG • Sunlight heats the earth • Some of sun’s energy is reradiated from surface. • GHGs absorb this energy • GHGs reradiate some escaping energy back towards surface, making the temperature warmer Source: Murray ca. 2005 Most Important Greenhouse Gases GHGs: • Water: H2O • Carbon Dioxide: CO2 • Methane: CH4 Source Examples: Oceans, Rivers, Plants, Soil Combustion, Respiration Wetlands, Oceans, Combustion, Animals http://www.for.gov.bc.ca Source: U.S. EPA 2005 Human sources of Greenhouse Gases Halocarbons 2% Other CH4 8% N2O 5% CO2 4% CO2 from fossil fuels 81% • ~50% of CO2 emissions to atmosphere are currently from humans • Fossil Fuel burning represents 81% of human sources of GHGs • Fossil Fuels include coal, oil, and natural gas. Source: U.S. EPA 2005 Past and Present: Greenhouse Gases and Climate Change Observations of CO2 1958 to present • CO2 concentrations have increased since 1958 • Estimated increase of about 30% since 1850 (280 ppm to 370 ppm) Source: Murray ca. 2005 Temperature ( C ) Temperature ( F ) Instrumental Temperature Record Source: NOAA More Evidence: Ice Cores • Ice layers preserve information about each year Sources: NOAA, GISP2 websites Ice Core Evidence CO2 and temperature, 420,000 BP to present 4 2 340 0 300 -2 -4 260 -6 220 -8 180 Temperature differential, ºC CO2 concentration, ppmv 380 -10 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 Years BP Temperature differential CO2 concentration Source: various, (1) Vostok assembled by Davies 2000, (2) GISP2 Future Climate Changes Predicting Future Climate Change Animation Schematic of a GCM Future global climate change • Model predictions of global average temperature increases by 2100 range from +2 to +4.5°C (4-8 ° F) Source: IPCC 2001 Future local climate change Average Northwest warming, 2000-2100 Source: Mote, Salathé and Peacock 2005 Impacts of Global Warming Impacts of Climate Change • Sea level rise • Ecosystem disruption • Changes in extreme events • Hurricanes (intensity) • Droughts • Societal • Water resources (droughts, snowpack,…) • Businesses (ski industry) • Loss of winter snowpack • Health (spread of disease, heat,…) • Loss of Sea ice • Forestry • Changing climate zones • Agriculture • Coral death Sea Level Rise 1-5 meters in Bangladesh 7-8 meters in Florida Loss of Sea Ice Source: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) (2004) Retreat of the South Cascades glacier 1928 • Also: reduction of winter snowpack and reduces freshwater supply 2000 Source: USGS ca. 2005 Effects on salmonid life-cycle winter flooding possible effects still unknown low summer streamflow; higher temp. changing estuary conditions (prey, predators, competitors) Source: Mote ca. 2005 Vegetation carbon in 2070-2100 Modeled Change in Vegetation Current vegetation as seen from satellite Source: Nielson ca. 2005 NASA Landsat Geocover 2000 Our Future Depends on Our Choices Choices are difficult because they require value judgments and long-term planning Reducing Greenhouse Gases Requires: Government actions: • International agreements are modest and do not have unanimous support • US does not support • Support for alternative energy Personal actions: • Reduce energy use: • at home • drive less, drive efficient • Get political • support businesses that are energy conscious • vote Our Future Depends on Our Choices Choices are difficult because they require value judgments and long-term planning Also Important: Planning for how to deal with future climate changes •Preparing for water shortages •Preparing for sea level change •Preparing for ecosystem impacts Summary • Human activities are increasing greenhouse gases (like CO2) all over the world. • As a result, the average temperature of the world is increasing. • Future warming of at least 1C by 2050 • Future climate depends on our choices The End. University of Washington Program on Climate Change Extras: Natural Climate Influence Human Climate Influence All Climate Influences Temperature change, 2071-2100 minus 1961-1990 Extras: Extras: Measured Arctic Summer Sea Ice Extent Sea level rise IPCC (www.ipcc.ch) U.S. 186.1 Total CO2 emission s since 1950 in billions of tons European Union 127.8 Russia 68.4 Ukraine 21.7 China Poland 14.4 Canada Kazakhstan 14.9 10.1 57.6 Japan 31.2 India 15.5 Mexico 7.8 Kuwait Trinidad and Tobago Australia South Africa 8.5 United Arab Emirate s 7.6 Trends in April 1 snow water equivalent, 1940-1992 As the West warms, winter flows rise and summer flows drop Figure by Iris Stewart, Scripps Inst. of Oceanog. (UC San Diego) Greenhouse gases and Earth’s energy balance * H2O, O3, CO2, CH4, N2O, halocarbons Source: Murray ca. 2005