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Climate Change in Travel Demand Models presented to 12th TRB Transportation Planning Applications Conference, May 2009, Houston, TX presented by Krishnan Viswanathan and Daniel Beagan Cambridge Systematics, Inc. May 18, 2009 Credit: Azmat Ali, Piotr Fajfer / Oxfam International Transportation leadership you can trust. Presentation Outline I - What is climate change II - Impacts on transportation and land use III - Policies and measures to mitigate climate change IV - Incorporate climate change in travel demand models Credit: Rose Fyson, Piotr Fajfer / Oxfam International 1 I - What is Climate Change Credit: Ninita Machava, Pedro Livinga,Vasco Macuácua,Rebeca Gomes,Rebeca Mavuia. Piotr Fajfer / Oxfam International 2 A Definition Changes in the atmospheric abundance of greenhouse gases (GHG) and aerosols, in solar radiation and in land surface properties Radiative forcing Increases in global atmospheric concentrations of CO2, methane and N2O due to human activities The global increases in carbon dioxide concentration are due primarily to fossil fuel use and land-use change Methane and N2O are primarily due to agriculture 3 The Earth’s Greenhouse Effect Source : The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation 4 GHGs and Temperature Trends Source : Climate Change 2001 : The Scientific Basis, IPCC 5 Global and Continental Temperature Change Source : Climate Change 2007 : The Physical Science Basis, IPCC 6 United States Temperature Change 7 II - Impacts on Transportation and Land Use Credit: Students at Charupeeth School of Fine Art, Piotr Fajfer / Oxfam International 8 Impact of Climate Change on Transportation Climate Change And Variability Transportation Decision Making • Temperature change • Systematic planning • Precipitation change • Accelerated sea level rise • Increased storm surge and intensity and investment • Project development • Operations • Maintenance • System Assessment Transportation Impacts • Location • System Design • Emergency mgmt. • Investment Levels Source : Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure: Gulf Coast Study, Phase I, FHWA 9 Impacts on Land Use and Transportation Water Scarcity Insurance restrictions Increases in very hot days and heat waves Increases in Arctic temperatures Rising sea levels Increases in intense precipitation events Increases in hurricane intensity 10 Operational Impacts Rising sea levels • Operational Impact : More frequent interruptions to coastal and low-lying roadway travel and rail service due to storm surges and more severe storm surges, requiring evacuation and/or changes in development patterns Increases in intense precipitation events • Operational Impact : Increases in weather-related delays and traffic disruptions and increased flooding of evacuation routes More frequent strong hurricanes • Operational Impact : More frequent and potentially more extensive emergency evacuations and more debris on roads and rail lines 11 III - Policies and Measures to Mitigate Climate Change Credit: Ashley Cecil, Piotr Fajfer / Oxfam International 12 Policy Recommendations Incorporate climate change into long term capital improvement plans, facility designs, maintenance practices, operations, and emergency response plans Better investment analyses and design approaches to B/C effects of making infrastructure more robust Better coordination and communication between various agencies Include needs of transportation decision makers in climate change research 13 Policy Recommendations Better integration of transportation with emergency response and evacuation plans Knowledge sharing of best practices across various institutions to address impacts of climate change Incentives to mitigate climate change impacts 14 Policy Recommendations Include climate change as a factor in the development of public-sector, long-range transportation plans; eliminate any perception that such plans should be limited to 20–30 years; and require collaboration in plan development with agencies responsible for land use, environmental protection, and natural resource management to foster more integrated transportation–land use decision making Source : TRB Special Report 290 : Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Transportation 15 Mitigation Analysis Models should provide insights into changes in travel behavior due to measures taken to mitigate climate change The models should be able to answer questions such as • Impacts of carbon taxes on travel behavior • Impacts of congestion pricing • Impacts of changes in transit service • Impacts of changes to land use Models should support mitigation policy options 16 IV - Incorporate Climate change in Travel Demand Models Credit: Gukzik Lau, Piotr Fajfer / Oxfam International 17 The Modeling Process Land Use Trip Generation Trip Distribution Mode Choice Traffic Assignment 18 Climate Change in Demand Models Climate Change Scenario 5 to 9 F increase Map USGC geography to model geography Measure CC scenario impacts on sociodemographic, physical and transportation characteristics 19 Incorporate into TD model process Land Use Models Changes due to Climate Change in • Current land use • Zoning plans • Environmental and regulatory Constraints • Developable areas 20 Land Use Models Model changes •Reduction in control totals • Increase in transportation costs • Loss of employment Variability in • Households/TAZ • Employment/TAZ • Attraction Locations Trip Generation Models Changes due to Climate Change in • Households/TAZ • Employment/TAZ • Special generators 21 Trip Generation Models Model Changes •Reduction in trip rates • Increase in residential density Variability in • Trip Ps and As Trip Distribution Models Changes due to Climate Change in • Trip Ps and As • Skims • Trip Lengths Trip Distribution Models Model Changes • Changes in friction factors • Network availability • Access Availability 22 Variability in • Trip OD pairs Mode Choice Models Changes due to Climate Change in • Vehicle Availability • Skims • Destination access • Land use changes 23 Mode Choice Models Model Changes • More joint trips • Increases in vehicle operating costs • More transit crowding Variability in • Mode Shares • Mode OD pairs Assignment Models Changes due to Climate Change in • Mode OD pairs • Skims • Network availability Assignment Models Model Changes • Restricted capacity • Speed restrictions • increased transit networks 24 Variability in • VMT, VHT • Congested speeds and times • total vehicles on Network • GHG estimation Summary Transportation planners and modelers need to be at the climate change table The impacts of climate change should be included in development or testing of alternatives during the LRTP cycle The process proposed here offers a relatively simple way to include climate change in travel demand models The model should provide insights into changes in travel behavior due to climate change mitigation strategies 25 Climate Change in Travel Demand Models presented to 12th TRB Transportation Planning Applications Conference, May 2009, Houston, TX presented by Krishnan Viswanathan and Daniel Beagan Cambridge Systematics, Inc. May 18, 2009 Credit: Azmat Ali, Piotr Fajfer / Oxfam International Transportation leadership you can trust.