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The Parallel Climate Model (PCM) and Transition to a Climate Change Version of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) Warren M. Washington NCAR Climate Change Simulations Present and future climate change and assessment simulations Merged Future CSM and PCM model research needs Present and Future cooperation between NSF and DOE Partial List of Distributed Involvement DOE and NSF Supported Project with: Los Alamos National Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research Naval Postgraduate School Oak Ridge National Laboratory University of Texas, Austin Scripps Oceanographic Institute DOE Program on Climate Diagnostics and Intercomparison U.S. Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory National Energy Research Supercomputer Center Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Others Contributions to the DOE Climate Change Prediction Program (CCPP) Develop climate modeling capability that takes advantage of new generation parallel architecture supercomputers Build on the previous DOE CHAMMP modeling developments Develop model components and coupled models that can be used for energy policy, IPCC, and future National Assessments History CSM1 and PCM1 Built for vector/parallel Computers system Atmosphere: CCM3 Ocean component: NCAR ocean model Sea ice dynamics of Flato-Hibler dynamics and simplified thermodynamics Built for distributed parallel Computer system Atmosphere: CCM3 Ocean component: LANL Parallel Ocean Program (POP) Sea ice Model -Naval Postgraduate School model: viscous plastic dynamics; simplified thermodynamics Coupler Overview • Enables coupled model to be constructed from independent components • Controls execution of component models Land • Computes interfacial fluxes • Implements conservative mapping of fluxes of momentum, energy, and water between different grids Atmos Coupler Ocean Ice Coupler: Design Goals • Support both sequential & distributed execution • High-performance scalable parallel implementation of performance-sensitive regridding and communication operations – Address parallelism and load balance issues • Run-time rather than compile-time specification of processor allocations • Support for stand alone execution Merging of CSM and PCM Agreement to use the same model components CSM, PCM, and DOE lab staff will develop a merged flux coupler b– ongoing SciDAC team of NCAR and DOE laboratory involvement Full merger occurs when the CCSM is available for climate change simulations and the new flux coupler NSF and DOE efforts may use different resolutions with DOE emphasis on high resolution studies for regional climate change studies Computational Design Question Parallel Integration ATMOSPHERE OCEAN SEA ICE RIVER TRANSPORT COUPLER LAND/ VEGETATION ATMOSPHERE Sequential Integration (stacked) COUPLER OCEAN SEA ICE RIVER TRANSPORT LAND/ VEGETATION T I M E T I M E Coupled System Processor Layout CCSM2 PCM CSM1 Target? PCM Version 1 - NERSC Machines Simulated Years per Wallclock Month 250 64pes IBM SP NHII 200 Simulated Years IBM SP WHII 150 IBM SP WHI T3E-900 100 T3E-600 50 T3D 0 1995 10/24/2001 1996 1997 1998 Year 1999 2000 2001 David Pierce Scripps Institution of Oceanography Examples of Climate Change Experiments Greenhouse gases Sulfate aerosols (direct effect) Stratospheric ozone Land surface changes Volcanic forcing Solar change forcing Carbon soot aerosol (Indian-Asian region) Various energy/emissions use strategies PCM Historical and Future Simulations Use of CSM greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosol forcing 1870 control simulation Historical 1870 to present IPCC “Business as Usual” assumption IPCC stabilization assumption Ensemble of 10 for Historical, BAU/STAB ensemble 5 Solar variability simulation-ensemble of 4 Simulations to year 2200-ensemble BAU/STAB 3 PCM and CSM Presence in the International Climate Modeling Community Both prominent in the IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001) Both represented in the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (Hamburg) Both represented in the CLIVAR Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP): CMIP1, CMIP2, CMIP2+ Access to CSM: via NCAR (CSM web page) Access to PCM: runs archived at PCMDI (contact Mike Wehner: [email protected]) Interim Model: “PCM-CSM Transitional Model” (PCTM) POP with GM and KPP (LANL, NCAR, NPS), R. Smith grid modifications (LANL) C. Bitz sea ice multi-thickness(5) distribution thermodynamics and E. Hunke et al. elastic viscous plastic dynamics (U. of Washington, LANL, NCAR) River Transport, Branstetter and Famiglietti (U. Of Texas, Austin, NCAR) Future Developments and Simulations More simulations with Black Carbon distributions in PCM1 over entire globe Higher resolution atmosphere -T85d simulations Improved archival and cataloging of large data sets EARTHGRID/DOE/ Simulations related to DOE mission on energy use impacts on the climate system - ACPI demonstration project Work with statistical community on signal to noise CCSM2 climate change simulations early next year Why T85? Improved regional simulation of climate change. Possible improvement of the winds in the Arctic which influence strongly the sea ice distribution. Improvement of orographic precipitation distributions. Improved to coasts. simulations of the ocean/sea ice close I have a Dream! Remember the famous Martin Luther King Speech! Organization of Community Climate System Model CCSM SSC Atmosphere Model Working Group Paleoclimate Working Group Ocean Model Working Group Land Model Working Group CCSM Advisory Board Polar Climate Working Group Climate Change Software Climate Variability Biogeochemistry and Assessment Engineering Working Group Working Group Working Group Working Group Future Goals for CCSM Improve Existing Climate Simulation Expand System to Include: - Biogeochemical Processes - Atmospheric Chemical Processes - Ice Sheet Dynamics - … Expand Outreach and Visibility Increase Computational Resources The End