Download Georgia`s Climate Variability vs Climate Change

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2007 IPCC Results: Implications for
Georgia
J. Marshall Shepherd,
Ph.D
Research, Meteorologist
and
Associate Professor of
Atmospheric
Sciences and Geography
G O D D A R D
S P A C E F L I G H T C E N T E R
2007 IPCC Report--90% Certainty Heralds a New Reality, New
Discourse
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“I have put our nation on a path to slow, stop, and eventually reverse
the growth of our greenhouse gas emissions. …….Our new 2025 goal
marks a major step forward in America's efforts to address climate
change.”--President G.W. Bush, White House Speech, April 16
2008
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The issue of climate change is one of the greatest challenges that our
generation faces.--Sen. Barack Obama,
http://obama.senate.gov/issues/environment
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“…I can tell you this. I have had enough experience and enough
knowledge to believe that unless we reverse what is happening on this
planet, my dear friends, we are going to hand our children a planet
that is badly damaged.”--NY Times, Oct. 2007 quoting Sen. John
McCain at the Global Warming and Energy Solutions Conference
http://mccain.senate.gov/public/
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The scientific consensus on climate change is increasingly clear: unless
we act to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse
gases, the planet will continue to warm over the next century, with
widespread and potentially devastating effect--Sen. Hillary Clinton
http://clinton.senate.gov/issues/environment/index.cfm?topic=climate
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G O D D A R D
S P A C E F L I G H T C E N T E R
Georgia’s Has Been Cooling, So No Global
Warming, Right?
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Annual average temperature
GA
67
Temperature in degrees F
66
65
64
63
62
61
1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
Analogue: Is Home Depot stock a good representation of
the Dow or S & P on a given day?
G O D D A R D
S P A C E F L I G H T C E N T E R
Figures: State Climatologist ad IPCC
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What are IPCC Scenarios?
Courtesy: IPCC
A1: a future world of very rapid economic growth,
global population that peaks in mid-century and
declines thereafter, and rapid introduction of new
and more efficient technologies. (Subsets--A1FI An emphasis on fossil-fuels, A1B - A balanced
emphasis on all energy sources, A1T - Emphasis on
non-fossil energy sources)
A2: a very heterogeneous world with continuously
increasing global population and regionally oriented
economic growth that is more fragmented and slower
than in other storylines.
B1: a convergent world with the same global
population as in the A1 storyline but with rapid
changes in economic structures toward a service and
information economy, with reductions in material
intensity, and the introduction of clean and resourceefficient technologies.
B2: a world in which the emphasis is on local solutions
to economic, social, and environmental sustainability,
with continuously increasing population (lower than
A2) and intermediate economic development.
G O D D A R D
S P A C E F L I G H T C E N T E R
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IPCC 2007 --90% Certainty Human Contributions
Will Continue to Warm the Earth System
Which Model Scenario is
closest to the real response?
Without change in human behavior,
our students will see the CO2 leave
the page, and we may see this, too.
4
G O D D A R D
S P A C E F L I G H T C E N T E R
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G O D D A R D
IPCC General Projections
S P A C E F L I G H T C E N T E R
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Climate Change and An Accelerating Water
Cycle?
Changes in water cycle most
perceptible to society: drought,
floods, hurricane, vector-borne
disease, sea level rise, agriculture
G O D D A R D
S P A C E F L I G H T C E N T E R
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Is the Water Cycle Accelerating?
Satellites now record space-time variability
of precipitation over decades
GPCP
While global trends do not
appear to exist for
precipitation, GPCP products
indicate that regional trends
do occur.
G O D D A R D
S P A C E F L I G H T C E N T E R
Courtesy R. Adler/NASA
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Before Interpreting IPCC Impacts on Georgia,
Caution!!!!
Grid Resolution of GCMs are too
coarse
– Weather models much smaller so
get closer to resolving processes
Water bodies and land surface
heterogeneity poorly resolved or
not resolved
Tropical Cyclones Not Explicitly
Resolved
Aerosol (e.g. pollution) and
Clouds????
Capturing Dynamic Process and
Climate Variability (e.g. El Nino)
Other Unresolved Processes and
Feedbacks
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G O D D A R D
S P A C E F L I G H T C E N T E R
UGA/NASA-Columbia/EdGCM
Georgia’s Climate Variability vs Climate Change
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During the last Ice Age, Georgia probably
experienced a climate somewhat wetter and cooler
than we have today.
Models indicate that the average annual rainfall was
about 63 inches and the annual average temperature
was 56.3º F, compared with modern values of 51
inches and 63.5º F.
Georgia’s climate varies on many different
time scales, from seasonal to multidecadal. These variations are due to a
number of factors, including ocean
temperatures, land use changes,
and weather and climate events happening
elsewhere in the US and the world.
Median Winter precipitation
Inches
SC NC
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
El Nino
G O D D A R D
Neutral
La Nina
S P A C E F L I G H T C E N T E R
Asst. state climatologist/P. Knox
Georgia climate trends
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Annual average temperature
Cooling in the last 50 years,
but some signs of reversal in
last 10 years….
67
Temperature in degrees F
66
65
64
63
62
61
1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
Since 1895, Georgia’s rainfall
has varied from one year to the next,
but there is only a very slight trend
towards higher precipitation over the
last century
Recent drought is apparent in NASA
Precipitation data for North GA
(below)
G O D D A R D
S P A C E F L I G H T C E N T E R
State Climatologist and Shepherd et al. 2008
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What Georgia Should Expect?
Annual
Winter
Summer
Temperature
Change
Precipitation
Change
G O D D A R D
S P A C E F L I G H T C E N T E R
IPCC, 2007
Southeast US Projected to See Increases in
Extreme Events!
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Extreme Heat: Implications
For Health, agriculture,
energy sector
Diffenbaugh et al. 2005
Water Cycle
Acceleration?
G O D D A R D
S P A C E F L I G H T C E N T E R
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Climate Change-Severe Weather Link?
N. GA. Tornadoes (1950-2006).
from Shepherd et al. (2008)
Del Genio et al. (2007) suggested that warmer land and higher
freezing levels due to global warming could lead to stronger
(but fewer) severe storms in the future.
G O D D A R D
S P A C E F L I G H T C E N T E R
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IPCC Summary Relevant to Georgia
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North America has experienced substantial social, cultural, economic and ecological
disruption from recent climate related extremes, especially storms, heatwaves and
wildfires
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Continuing infrastructure development, especially in vulnerable zones, will likely lead to
continuing increases in economic damage from extreme weather
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The vulnerability of North America depends on the effectiveness of adaptation and the
distribution of coping capacity, both of which are currently uneven and have not always
protected vulnerable groups from adverse impacts of climate variability and extreme
weather events
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A key prerequisite for sustainability is ‘mainstreaming’ climate issues into decision
making.
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Climate change will exacerbate stresses on diverse sectors in North America, including,
but not limited to, urban centers, coastal communities, human health, water resources and
managed and unmanaged ecosystems.
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Indigenous peoples of North America and those who are socially and economically
disadvantaged are disproportionately vulnerable to climate change
G O D D A R D
S P A C E F L I G H T C E N T E R
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Georgia’s Climate Change Not Only CO2 Related!
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For example: Atlanta’s
urbanization may be altering the
water cycle, air quality,
temperature
G O D D A R D
S P A C E F L I G H T C E N T E R
Mote, Lacke, and Shepherd 2007
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From the Headlines----
Global warming may
exacerbate ozone the most
in already-polluted areas.
Jacobson (2007, GRL)
-----CO2 may increase U.S.
annual air pollution deaths
by about 1000 (350–1800)
and cancers by 20–30 per 1
K rise in CO2-induced
temperature.
G O D D A R D
S P A C E F L I G H T C E N T E R