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Global Climatic change Montréal & Kyoto Protocol and after Manish Kr. Semwal GMIS, Jakarta 1988 WMO and UNEP establish the 7 April 1995 COP1 launches a new round IPCC The UN general assembly takes up climate change for the first time of negotiations on a ‘protocol or another legal instrument’ 1990 IPCC’s first assessment report 11-15 Dec 1995 IPCC approves second Second World Climate Conference UN general assembly and convention assessment report on science of climate change - underlines strong action needed Feb 1991 INCC meets for first time 19 July 1996 COP2 takes note of the Geneva Ministerial Declaration, which acts as further impetus to on-going negotiations 9 May 1992 UN framework convention on climate change adopted in New York 4 June 1992 Convention opened for signature at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil 21 March 1994 Convention enters into force, after receiving 50 ratifications 11 Dec 1997 COP3 adopts the Kyoto Protocol to the UN framework convention on climate change in Kyoto, Japan Kyoto Protocol • The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement linked to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The major feature of the Kyoto Protocol is that it sets binding targets for 37 industrialized countries and the European community for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions .These amount to an average of five per cent against 1990 levels over the five-year period 2008-2012. Montreal Protocol • The Montreal Protocol on Substances That Deplete the Ozone Layer (a protocol to the Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer) is an international treaty designed to protect the ozone layer by phasing out the production of a number of substances believed to be responsible for ozone depletion. The treaty was opened for signature on September 16, 1987, and entered into force on January 1, 1989, followed by a first meeting in Helsinki, May 1989. Since then, it has undergone seven revisions, in 1990 (London), 1991 (Nairobi), 1992 (Copenhagen), 1993 (Bangkok), 1995 (Vienna), 1997 (Montreal), and 1999 (Beijing). Policy and Science have Complementary Roles in Mitigating Climate Change Case #1: Stratospheric Ozone Depletion and the Montreal Protocol The Antarctic Ozone Hole continues to grow in size – in 2000 it was larger than North America! Simultaneously, the ozone depletion increases in severity, reaching nearly 100% at certain altitudes in 2000. Not only is the Ozone Hole getting larger, but it persists for longer times Effects of the Montreal Protocol on Atmospheric Cl and Br Loading 1985 – Vienna Convention Organizes the international effort to ban CFC’s 1987 – Montreal Protocol Reduce CFC production to 50% of 1986 levels by 1998 1990 – London Ban on all CFC production by 2000 Accelerated phase-out of replacement gases 1992 – Copenhagen, 1997 Montreal, 1999 – Beijing Halons, CCl4, CH3Br to be eliminated by 2005 Future O3 Levels • The threshold level for Antarctic ozone hole formation is ~ 2 ppb Cl • The first Antarctic ozone holes were observed in the mid 1980’s • Atmospheric Cl loading peaked in ~1996 at 3.3 ppb and appears to be decreasing • Current models indicate recovery by ~ 2050 ± 10 Lessons Learned from the Montreal Protocol Process • Subsequent acceleration of the ODP phaseouts were made based on the continued improvement of remote sensing data and model forecasts •These accelerations in schedule were crucial for avoiding even larger longterm impacts • Action prior to 1987 (13 year delay from initial warnings) may have averted occurrence of the Antarctic ozone hole The Montreal Protocol process serves as the paradigm for effective interaction between science and policy in dealing with global climate change issues. Case #2: Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the Kyoto Protocol Process The Link Between CO2 and Global Warming CO2 There is a clear correlation between the geologic CO2 record (TOP) and the geologic surface temperature record (BOTTOM) over the last 1000 years. State-of-the-art global climate models forecast that future increases in atmospheric CO2 levels will be linked to corresponding increases in the mean global surface temperature. The question of HOW MUCH will temperatures increase is based on model assumptions and estimated CO2 levels. Temp Recent Surface Temperature Variations Surface temperatures have shown significant fluctuation over the last 1000 years. However, the trend since 1800 has been steadily increasing. Temperatures rose ~ 0.6° C over the last century with land areas heating more than the oceans. Note that the increases in the 1900’s occurred abruptly. The cause of these changes is still debated although it can be captured reproducibly in the most sophisticated models. The Effects of Increasing Surface Temperatures Surface temperatures may increases may be expressed in terms of the mean (average) temperature or temperature variance A uniform increase in mean temperature would cause all areas to become hotter. Increases in the variance of surface temperatures would lead to more extreme weather conditions and more unstable events (storms, ENSO, monsoons, etc) Increasing mean and variance would lead to warmer and more volatile global weather patterns. Climate Change Scenarios The IPCC 2001 report uses several different scenarios as the basis for its forecasts The scenarios balance different drivers: Economic vs Environmental Global vs Regional Different Scenarios Have Very Different Impacts The Impacts of Atmospheric CO2 Loading Extend Far into the Future The timescales for recovery from atmospheric CO2 loading are 100 – 1000+ years due to the slow reaction times and large thermal inertia of the oceans and ice caps Modeling Surface Temperature Change: Regional vs. Global Models forecast significantly larger effects at high latitudes than near the equator and larger effects in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. Global Climate Models Capture Surface Temperature Variations Modeling Global Temperature Change Models do well capturing the past behavior of the climate, but diverge on their forecasts of future temperatures. The uncertainties in these forecasts presents the most probable range of temperatures that one might associate with different scenarios. Compare the forecasted changes in temperature for 2100 with the 0.6° C rise in global mean surface temperature from 1900-2000. Indicators of Surface Temperature Change Emissions Scenarios Are Difficult to Predict … and Have Very Different Impacts Uncertainty in Global Warming Uncertainties exist in the forecasts for potential global warming even for stabilized concentrations of greenhouse gases. Economic Impact of Different CO2 Stabilization Scenarios The ultimate estimated economic impact of CO2 emissions regulation depends on the target stabilization level chosen. UNFCCC - ARTICLE 1: DEFINITIONS 1...."Adverse effects of climate change" means changes in the physical environment or biota resulting from climate change which have significant deleterious effects on the composition, resilience or productivity of natural and managed ecosystems or on the operation of socio-economic systems or on human health and welfare. 2...."Climate change" means a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods. 3...."Climate system" means the totality of the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere and geosphere and their interactions. 4...."Emissions" means the release of greenhouse gases and/or their precursors into the atmosphere over a specified area and period of time. UNFCCC - ARTICLE 1: DEFINITIONS 5...."Greenhouse gases" means those gaseous constituents of the atmosphere, both natural and anthropogenic, that absorb and re-emit infrared radiation. 6...."Regional economic integration organization" means an organization constituted by sovereign States of a given region which has competence in respect of matters governed by this Convention or its protocols and has been duly authorized, in accordance with its internal procedures, to sign, ratify, accept, approve or accede to the instruments concerned. 7...."Reservoir" means a component or components of the climate system where a greenhouse gas or a precursor of a greenhouse gas is stored. 8...."Sink" means any process, activity or mechanism which removes a greenhouse gas, an aerosol or a precursor of a greenhouse gas from the atmosphere. 9...."Source" means any process or activity which releases a greenhouse gas, an aerosol or a precursor of a greenhouse gas into the atmosphere. UNFCCC ARTICLE 2: OBJECTIVE The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner. The Greenhouse Effect CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel Burning CO2 Emissions from Land Use Change Historical and Projected Global Population & Energy Consumption Changes in Global Energy Consumption by Region Energy consumption in Asia and Latin America is projected to more than double in the next 20 years! Energy consumption in Africa and the Middle East should not lag far behind Even technologically advanced nations are expected to increase energy consumption by up to 40% in the next 2 decades Global CO2 Emissions Projections suggest rapid rise in CO2 emissions from Developing Nations, surpassing the emissions from Developed Nations by 2020. CO2 emissions from oil are projected to dominate the anthropogenic contributions over the next 20 years Global Energy Consumption by Region Industrialized Nations: Energy consumption will continue to rise over the next 20 years Developing Nations: Nearly exponential growth in energy consumption over next 20 years Developing and Industrialized nations projected to have similar energy consumption by ~ 2020 EE = Eastern Europe FSU = Former Soviet Union US Oil Consumption Alternatives Bibliography • • http://images.google.co.id/images?hl=en&um=1&q=kyoto+protocol+in+newspaper&sa= N&start=84&ndsp=21 http://images.google.co.id/images?hl=en&um=1&q=newspaper+cutting+about+montreal +protocol+in+newspapers&sa=N&start=63&ndsp=21 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreal_Protocol www.authorstream.com/.../miloung-57217-kyoto-protocol-UN-Framework-ConventionClimate-Change-Travel-Places-Nature homepages.see.leeds.ac.uk • www.web.net/~robrien/papers/kyotoppt/index.htm • • • Thank You Manish Kr. Semwal