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The CCAM multi-scale variableresolution modelling system at CSIR Francois Engelbrecht, Willem Landman and Mary-Jane Bopape CSIR Natural Resources and the Environment Climate Studies, Modelling and Environmental Health Climate Modelling at the CSIR NRE • NWP and RCM capacity build around the conformal-cubic atmospheric model (CCAM) of the CSIRO • A cube-based global model; semi-Lagrangian semi-implicit solution of the primitive equations • Includes a wide range of physical parameterizations • Developed by the CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research (McGregor, 2005) • Runs in quasi-uniform or in stretched grid mode • Multi-scale climate modelling. © CSIR 2007 www.csir.co.za Quasiuniform C48 grid with resolution about 210 km Regional climate modelling and NWP over Africa using CCAM CCAM applied in stretched-grid mode Modest stretching provides a resolution of about 50 km over southern Africa; decreases to about 4 degrees in the far-field Options for spectral nudging, gridpoint nudging or no nudging from the host model (atmospheric fields) C64 stretched-grid with resolution about 50 km over southern Africa © CSIR 2007 www.csir.co.za CSIR CCAM 7-day forecast CSIR seamless forecasting system Testing the CCAM code used for projections of future climate change through short-range and seasonal forecasts leads to model development and increased confidence climate change projections Routine CCAM short-range weather forecasts over Africa (7-days ahead, 50 km resolution) Higher-resolution forecasts are produced over smaller domains (downscaling) - False Bay example: Engelbrecht et al. (2011) Water SA; Landman et al. (2012) Water SA. Forecast error as a function of integration time Average Absolute Error 500 hPa geopotential height: January 2005 Potgieter (2006), UP © CSIR 2007 www.csir.co.za Forecast error as a function of integration time Average Absolute Error 500 hPa geopotential height: January 2005 Potgieter (2006), UP © CSIR 2007 www.csir.co.za Forecast error as a function of integration time Average Absolute Error 500 hPa geopotential height: January 2005 Potgieter (2006), UP © CSIR 2007 www.csir.co.za Landman et al. (2012) Water SA UM Rainfall Bias ONDJFM 2007/8 CCAM Rainfall Bias ONDJFM 2007/8 Landman et al. (2012) Water SA UM Brier Skill Score ONDJFM 2007/8 CCAM Brier Skill Score ONDJFM 2007/8 Landman et al. (2012) Water SA UM Brier Skill Score ONDJFM 2007/8 CCAM Brier Skill Score ONDJFM 2007/8 Seasonal forecast operational approach (SARVA, GFCSA) Atmospheric ICs NCEP/GFS Boundary Conditions Model Output Statistics Verification of seasonal forecasts: CCAM and CGCMs Spearman’s rank correlation between observed and downscaled DJF seasonal rainfall totals. The correlations were calculated over the period from 1979/80 to 2004/05 CCAM simulation skill (ROC) over northeastern interior Latest system based on CCAMCABLE with 27 levels in the vertical Engelbrecht et al. (2011) Water SA; Landman and Beraki (2012) IJC Winsemius et al. (2014) HESS in press Emission Scenarios and Representative Concentration Pathways CSIRO: Martin Dix CRUTEMP3v linear temperature trend 19612010 (°C per century) Strong warming has occurred over the western+central parts of southern Africa Warming more moderate along the coastal areas A strict test of the seamless forecasting system: simulation of temperature trends over southern Africa Simulated trends for 1961-2010 are shown (°C per century) © CSIR 2007 www.csir.co.za Taylor diagram: Verification of simulated linear trends in annual average temperatures over southern Africa The six ensemble members produced very different simulations of the trends in annual average temperatures over southern Africa The simulation of trends in regional climate provides a stringent test to regional climate models © CSIR 2007 www.csir.co.za CCAM-CABLE projections of future climate change (CORDEX) CSIR-CSIRO collaboration RCP4.5 Page 17 RCP8.5 Time-slabs annual rainfall anomalies (mm) – based on six CCAM A2 SRES scenarios Most ensemble members project southern Africa to become generally drier under climate change Most ensemble members project East Africa to become generally wetter under climate change A robust signal of drying is projected for the southwestern Cape of SA. Engelbrecht et al. (2009), IJC Engelbrecht et al. (2011), Water SA Engelbrecht et al. (2012), IJC © CSIR 2007 www.csir.co.za Climate Change, climate dynamics and extreme weather events over southern Africa MSG IR image © CSIR 2007 www.csir.co.za Climate Change and Tropical Cyclones+Lows Model simulated (top) and observed (bottom) tropical cyclone track climatology over southern Africa – for the period 1961-1990 Malherbe et al. (2013), Climate Dynamics © CSIR 2007 www.csir.co.za Climate Change and Tropical Cyclones+Lows Model projected change in tropical cyclone and tropical low frequencies over the southwestern IO and southern Africa, for 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990. Malherbe et al. (2013) Climate Dynamics © CSIR 2007 www.csir.co.za Projecting latitudinal shifts in the westerlies in response to enhanced anthropogenic forcing: the enhanced greenhouse effect and (recovering) depleted stratospheric ozone Projected changes in mean winds and storm tracks are relevant to Southern Ocean dynamics, bio-chemistry and carbon cycle Simulated 1000 hPa u-winds (19611990) for January and projected changes (2071-2100 vs 1961-1990). A2 scenario with full radiative forcing Page 22 © CSIR 2007 Latest research explores the effects of stratospheric ozone depletion and cooling on southern African rainfall at inter-annual time-scales – implications for predictability at the seasonal timescale CSIR-NRE has capacity in numerical model development Simulations of nonhydrostatic mountain waves Scorer parameter =S ~ N/U = 0.001 1/S ~ a = 2000 m Propagation of waves on the lee side of the mountain Janjic et al. (2001) Engelbrecht et al. (2007) SAJS Non-hydrostatic atmospheric dynamics and cloud microphysics scheme development – consistent with atmospheric component of the new coupled model (MW equations) Thunderstorms forced with observed large scale forcing – T, qv, SST, surface p, zonal wind NH tests inform the development of larger-scale convection parameterizations within the coupled model 2K radiative cooling in troposphere ●Model is able to capture suppressed and deep convection periods. ● Simulations – convection triggered by 2K perturbation with different micro-physics Engelbrecht et al. (2006) SAJS Bopape et al. (2013) APJAS Bopape et al. (2014) SAJS in press Tozuka et al. (2013) Climate Dynamics Development of a new cube-based Earth System Model in Africa (CSIR-CSIRO-JAMSTEC collaboration) Based on cube-based global atmospheric and land-surface models of CSIRO and a cubebased global ocean model of JAMSTEC (equi-angular gnomonic-cubic grid) Coupling of ocean and atmosphere components performed at CSIR Seasonal forecasting Projections of future climate change (CMIP6) Simulations of Southern Hemisphere climate dynamics; Simulations of the carbon cycle of the Southern Ocean and southern African landmass Paleo-climate simulations