Download Challenges and needs in research

Dialogue on Research in SBSTA32 (3 June 2010）
Challenges and Needs in Research
Views of Japan
-emerging challenges and policy needsHiroki Kondo
Advisor to
the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology
(MEXT), Japan
Prioritized Subjects as research needs
in climate change research area
•
Selected important subjects in climate change
research area under Environment
― Satellite observation of greenhouse gases and land
surface layer
GOSAT (launched in 2009), etc.
(= Global Greenhouse Gas Observation by Satellite)
― Climate change projection for 21st century by climate
modeling
（Science & technology to project climate change in the 21st century
by using the supercomputer as a sound base for Post-Kyoto policy)
― Climate change risk assessment & adaptation, and
the scenarios and pathways toward low carbon societies
•
Besides National Core Technology：
― Next generation supercomputer
― Observation and Ocean Exploration System（including Data
Integration and Analysis System（DIAS) ）、
Research Challenges from the IPCC/WG1/ AR4
 “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, ….”
 “Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures
since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in
anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations12.”
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Consideration of remaining uncertainty is based on current methodologies.
 “Cloud feedbacks remain the largest source of uncertainty.”
 “Assessed upper ranges for temperature projections are larger than in
the TAR (see Table SPM-3) mainly because the broader range of models
now available suggests stronger climate-carbon cycle feed backs.”
 “It is very likely that hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation
events will continue to become more frequent.”
・・・・・・・・・・・・・
Strong concerns about global warming and its impacts
on natural disasters, in particular, from policy makers
Increasing challenges for further reliable projection
Research challenges related to climate
change projection to be addressed
 Better simulation of physical and biogeochemical
processes sufficiently reflecting feedbacks
A) Advancing climate modeling and projection
 Addressing uncertainties in climate model projection
B) Quantification and reduction of uncertainty
 Impact assessment on natural disasters by extreme
events through sufficiently high resolution projection
C) Application of regional projection to natural
disasters
Research needs for policy and
projection targets to meet them
 Needs of better scientific basis for long-term
stability issues in mitigation, etc.
Long-term global environmental projection
using an earth system model
 Needs of climate information in the near future
for adaptation and other policy measures
Near-term climate projection (or prediction)
using a high-resolution coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM
 Needs of regionally detail projection of extremes for
regionally reliable adaptation in vulnerable countries
Projection of extremes in the future
using a super-high resolution atmospheric model
 Related areas to be coordinated:
Advanced Re-analysis system for model verification
(MEXT)
Climate change projection
using the
Earth Simulator (ES)
Long-Term Global Change
Projection (~2300)
Near-Term Climate Prediction
(20~30 years prediction)
Extreme Event Projection
(Typhoons, Hurricanes, Heavy rain, etc.)
Advancing
Climate Modeling
and Projection
Impact
Quantification
and reduction
of uncertainty
Cloud Resolvable Modeling
Parameterization of
Marine Microphysics
Assessment
Studies
(MOE)
Application of
Regional Projections
to Natural Disasters
Contribution to IPCC AR5
Scientific Basis for Policymakers
Adaptation
Studies
Ongoing Coordination to address challenges and needs in research (Japan)
Increasing needs for closer coordination
climate change projection outcomes
with finer temporal and spatial
resolution
with
Impact, Adaptation and Vulnerability (IAV)
studies
and then specifically with
risk assessment and adaptation
and
scenarios and pathways toward low
carbon societies
at local and regional levels
New research project on impact and
adaptation (FY2010 – 2014)
 Quantitative assessment of climate change impacts at the national and local levels
 Development of impact assessment and adaptation policy tools for local governments and
developing countries
Contributions to IPCC AR5 and other international initiatives
Fine resolution climate prediction
AP Adaptation Network
Theme 2
Theme 1
Theme 3
Study on adaptation
policy measures to be
mainstreamed into
local government
development policies
Study on finer resolution
qualitative assessment
of climate change
impacts in Japan at the
national and local levels
Study on indicators
for vulnerability
assessment and
measuring the effect
of adaptation in
developing countries
Food
Forest
Disaster
Health
Contribution to policy
making processes
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