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Download Main Findings of IPCC - UW Program on Climate Change
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Climate Change 101 Dr. LuAnne Thompson Associate Professor, School of Oceanography Board member of Program on Climate Change, UW Outline The science of climate change: the IPCC The impacts climate change: global and regional Solutions: from personal to global Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 Under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environmental Program Summary for Policy Makers for Fourth Assessment Release February 7, 2007 www.ipcc.ch Main Findings of IPCC Warming of the climate system is unequivocalchanges seen in global average temperature, melting of snow and ice, rising sea level. IPCC 2007 Source: OSTP Clear correlation between CO2 and temperature Current level of CO2 is outside bounds of natural variability Rate of change of CO2 is also unprecedented Source: OSTP CO2 and temperature, 1000 AD to present Source: IPCC 2001 Source: OSTP Main Findings of IPCC Observed vs. modeled temperature rise since 1860 Most of the warming in globally averaged temperature is very likely due to the observed increase to anthropogenic green house gases. IPCC Main Findings of IPCC Between 1900 and 2000, the earth has warmed by 1F. Global average temperature projected to increase 2-11.5°F by 2100. Half of uncertainty is climate sensitivity; half is GHG input (policy, tech) “How far can it go? The last time the world was three degrees warmer than today – which is what we expect later this century – sea levels were 25m higher. So that is what we can look forward to if we don't act soon…I think sea-level rise is going to be the big issue soon, more even than warming itself… How long have we got? We have to stabilize emissions of carbon dioxide within a decade, or temperatures will warm by more than one degree. That will be warmer than it has been for half a million years, and many things could become unstoppable.…We don't have much time left.” Dr. James Hansen, Director, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. – The Independent 2/ 17/2006 Projected Changes in Annual Temperatures for the 2050s The projected change is compared to the present day with a ~1% increase per year in equivalent CO 2 Source: The Met Office. Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research Physical signal: observed changes in ice and snow cover South Cascade Glacier, 1928 and 2000 Duration of ice cover on rivers and lakes has decreased by 2.5 weeks over the last century in mid- & high latitude areas Arctic sea ice loss in area (10 - Decline in snow cover (10%) for N World-wide retreat in alpine glaciers Widespread changes in permafrost 15%) and thickness (40%) over the last half century. hemisphere since 1960 over last century IPCC Sea-Level Rise Ocean Shores, WA Thermal expansion and glacier/icecap melting 4 to 8 inches over the last century IPCC projects 7 to 23 inches this century Erodes beaches and wetlands, inundates lowlying areas Effects of global warming on water cycle Global warming Speeds up global water cycle 9/19 Washington Post: “Warning in the Winds” “Hurricanes are essentially heat engines, forming over warm ocean waters and gaining strength from the latent heat …. This released heat drives rapid updrafts that cause more water to evaporate from the ocean surface and form a selfreinforcing vortex of swirling clouds generating wind speeds, as in Hurricane Ivan's case, of up to 160 miles per hour.” More extreme weather events PNW trends, expected impacts Source for PNW impacts: UW Climate Impacts Group http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/ Average Northwest warming, 2000-2100 Source: Mote, Salathé and Peacock 2005 Effect on modeled Snake River streamflow 140000 an earlier peak 120000 decreased spring/ summer flows Flow (cfs) 100000 base comp 2020 comp 2040 80000 increased winter flows 60000 40000 20000 0 O N D J F M A M J J A S Source: Mote ca. 2005 For areas that accumulate snowpack, areas close to freezing in mid-winter are most sensitive to warming +4°F, +4.5% winter precip ~2050s days of operation per year Effect on Snoqualmie Pass ski industry 24 cm snow threshold 50 cm 80 cm current climate 2020’s 2040’s (two different models) (two different models) Source: Mote ca. 2005 CO2 Emissions and Concentrations: The environment responds to concentrations; aggressive emission reduction needs to begin quickly IPCC Stabilization wedge options capture CO 2 at synfuels plant capture CO 2 at H 2 plants capture CO 2 at power plants displace coal with nuclear displace coal with wind displace coal with PV displace coal with NG efficient coal power efficient buildings displace gasoline with wind H 2 increase biofuels production 50X forestry reduced car use conservation tillage on all cropland efficient cars PCC slide no. 062 adapted from: Pacala & Socolow 2004 GHG emissions induced by a U.S. household medical 6% other 3% housing 6% personal items and services 6% household operations 35% food 12% transportation 32% Source: Union of Concerned Scientists 1999 Why a Northwesterner needs to think differently buildings (commercial) 7% buildings (residential) 6% buildings 9% agriculture 5% agriculture 7% electric generation 15% electric generation 34% industry 25% industry 19% transportation 27% U.S. GHGs transportation 46% Washington GHGs Source: U.S. EPA 2005; Washington State 2004 Two venues for action POLICY REFORM PERSONAL GHG CUTS • Drive less - Carpool or use transit - Walk or bicycle - Combine errands - Telecommute • Drive a fuel-efficient car • Recycle • Reduce home energy use - CFLs - Energy Star appliances - Heat room-by-room - Minimize summer A/C • Vote • Financially support concerned organizations - Climate Solutions - Northwest Energy Coalition • Volunteer for concerned organizations - Door-to-door education - Legislative lobbying • Purchase GHG offsets Source: Hammerschlag ca. 2005 City of Seattle As of March 11, 2007, 418 US cities in 50 states, representing more than 60 million Americans support Kyoto after Mayor Greg Nickels of Seattle started a nationwide effort to get cities to agree to the protocol. County, UW, Businesses Seattle Climate Partnership (REI, UW, Starbucks, etc.). Voluntary pact among Seattle Area Employers to take action to reduce their own emissions. Sims Global Warming initiative Commitment to reduce King County Emissions Development of adaptation strategies The UW has joined a national effort -- the American College & University Presidents Climate Commitment -- to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and become carbon-neutral. State February 26, 2007: Five Western governors agreed to cut their states' emissions Will establish a regional carbon-trading system allowing polluters to buy and sell greenhouse gas pollution credits. Solutions: UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Foundation of international efforts to combat global warming Objective: “stabilize GHG concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system” Kyoto protocol sets binding limits: Ratified by over 100 nations; emission trading and markets are evolving rapidly Emission Reduction Profile to achieve 450 PPM Tony Blair and Great Britain Proposed bill, Britain will cut carbon emission by 60% cut by 2050, and introduce legally-binding carbon "budgets" Interim target of a 26% to 32% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2020.