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WMO
Status and possible solutions
to the climate change challenge:
UNEP
What's new since IPCC AR4?
R K Pachauri
Chairman, IPCC
Director-General, TERI
The Ny-Ålesund Symposium
8th June 2009
1
The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
(2007)
+2500 scientific expert reviewers
800 contributing authors
450 lead authors
+130 countries
2
“Warming of the climate
system is unequivocal”
- IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
3
Observed changes
Global average
temperature
Global average
sea level
Northern hemisphere
snow cover
4
Average arctic temperatures increased
at almost twice the global average rate
in the past 100 years
- Annual average arctic sea ice extent has
shrunk by 2.7% per decade
5
The frequency of heavy precipitation events has
increased over most land areas
- Rainfall in Mumbai (India), 2005:
1 million people lost their homes
6
The proportion of tropical cyclones reaching higher
intensity have increased over the past 3 decades
- Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar, 2008:
100 000 estimated deaths
7
Heat waves have become more frequent
over most land areas
- Heat wave in Europe, 2003: 35 000 deaths
8
“Continued GHG emissions [...] would
induce many changes in the global climate
system during the 21st century that would
very likely be larger than those observed
during the 20th century”
- IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
9
Carbon dioxide emissions
-2
Global atmospheric
concentrations of
greenhouse gases
increased markedly as a
result of human activities,
with an increase of
70% in 1970-2004
10000
5000
Time (before 2005)
0
10
Ranges for predicted surface warming
year
Continued emissions would lead to further warming
of 1.1ºC to 6.4ºC over the 21st century
(best estimates: 1.8ºC - 4ºC)
11
Examples of impacts associated with
global average temperature change relative to 1980-1999
0
1
2
3
5 oC
4
Increased water availability in moist tropics and high latitudes
WATER
Decreasing water availability and increasing drought in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudes
Hundreds of millions of people exposed to increased water stress
Increased coral bleaching
ECOSYSTEMS
Most corals bleached
Widespread coral mortality
Terrestrial biosphere tends towards a net carbon source as:
15%
40% of ecosystems affected
Increasing species range shifts and wildfire risk
Ecosystem changes due to weakening of the meridional
overturning circulation
Complex, localised negative impacts on small holders, subsistence farmers and fishers
FOOD
Tendencies for cereal productivity
to decrease in low latitudes
Productivity of all cereals
decreases in low latitudes
Tendencies for some cereal productivity
to increase at mid- to high latitudes
Cereal productivity to decrease in
some regions
Increased damage from floods and storms
COASTS
About 30% of global coastal wetlands lost
Millions more people experience coastal flooding each year
Increasing burden from malnutrition, diarrhoeal, cardio-respiratory, infectious diseases
HEALTH
Increased morbidity and mortality from heat waves, floods, droughts
Changed distribution of some disease vectors
12
Regions likely to be especially affected
The Arctic, because of the impacts of high rates of
warming on natural systems and human communities
Africa, because of low adaptive capacity
and projected climate change impacts
Small islands, which are highly vulnerable
to projected sea level rise
Asian and African megadeltas, due to large
populations and high exposure to sea level rise,
storm surges and river flooding
13
Negative impacts on Europe
Inland and coastal flooding
Health risks due to heat-waves
Reduction of water availability and
crop productivity in South Europe
Species losses and reduced
snow cover in mountains
14
1996
2009
In the course of the century, water supplies stored
in glaciers and snow cover are projected to decline
- The Chacaltaya glacier, 5,300m up in the Andes,
which used to be the world's highest ski run, has been reduced
to just a few small pieces of ice
Credit: Edson
15Ramirez
Climate change could lead to some
abrupt or irreversible impacts
Partial loss of ice sheets on polar land could imply
metres of sea level rise, major changes in
coastlines and inundation of low-lying areas
20-30% of species are likely to be at risk of
extinction if increases in warming exceed 1.5-2.5°C
Large scale and persistent changes in Meridional
Overturning Circulation would have impacts on
marine ecosystem productivity, fisheries, ocean
CO2 uptake and terrestrial vegetation
16
“Delayed emission reductions
significantly constrain the opportunities
to achieve lower stabilisation levels
and increase the risk of more severe
climate change impacts”
- IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
17
Climate system inertia: even if GHG concentrations
were held constant at year 2000 levels, a further
warming trend would occur in the next two decades
at a rate of about 0.1°C per decade
Energy system inertia: delayed emission reductions
lead to investments that lock in more emission
intensive infrastructure and development pathways
Mitigation actions need to start in the short term
in order to have medium- and longer-term benefits
18
Stabilisation scenarios
Global mean
temp. increase
(ºC)
Stabilization
level
(ppm CO2-eq)
Year CO2 needs
to peak
2.0 – 2.4
445 – 490
2000 – 2015
2.4 – 2.8
490 – 535
2000 – 2020
2.8 – 3.2
535 – 590
2010 – 2030
3.2 – 4.0
590 – 710
2020 – 2060
19
Costs of mitigation in 2030
Stabilisation
levels
(ppm CO2-eq)
Range of GDP
reduction
(%)
Reduction of
average annual
GDP growth
rates
(percentage pts)
445 - 535
<3
< 0.12
535 - 590
0.2 – 2.5
< 0.1
590 - 710
-0.6 – 1.2
< 0.06
Mitigation measures would induce 0.6% gain
to 3% decrease of GDP in 2030
20
“There is substantial […] potential for
the mitigation of global GHG
emissions over the coming decades
that could […] reduce emissions
below current levels”
- IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
21
All stabilisation levels assessed
can be achieved by deployment of a portfolio
of technologies that are currently available
or expected to be commercialised
in coming decades
This assumes appropriate and
effective incentives are in place for
their development, acquisition,
deployment and diffusion
22
Key technologies currently available
Energy
Supply
Efficiency; fuel switching; renewables;
combined heat and power; nuclear power;
early applications of CO2 capture & storage
Transport
More fuel efficient vehicles; hybrid vehicles;
biofuels; modal shifts from road transport to
rail and public transport systems
Buildings
Efficient lighting; efficient appliances;
improved insulation; solar heating and cooling;
alternatives for fluorinated gases in insulation
and appliances
23
Technologies expected to be
commercialised before 2030
Energy
Supply
CCS for gas, biomass & coal-fired electricity
generating facilities; advanced nuclear power
& renewable energy, including tidal and wave
energy, concentrating solar, and solar PV
Transport
2nd generation biofuels; higher efficiency
aircraft; advanced electric & hybrid vehicles
with more powerful & reliable batteries
Buildings
Integrated design of commercial buildings
including intelligent meters that provide
feedback and control; integrated PV
24
Key mitigation instruments,
policies & practices
Research, development and demonstration
Appropriate energy infrastructure investments
Regulations and standards
Taxes and charges
Change in lifestyles & consumption patterns
Effective carbon-price signal
25
Beyond the IPCC
Fourth Assessment Report
26
Evolution of the climate science
Deeper understanding and quantification of the
processes governing the climate system have progressed
rapidly since the IPCC First Assessment Report (1990)
 The main scientific conclusions from the sequence
of IPCC assessments have been refined but not
significantly redirected
 Recently observed climate changes remain coherent
with the AR4 conclusions, although longer-term
observation is required to draw significant conclusions
on climate evolutions
27
Research-related priorities
Impacts under different assumptions about future
development pathways
Damages avoided by different levels of emissions reduction
Expected impacts at the regional and local level
Causes and thresholds of possible abrupt climate changes
Links between climate change and other policies
Costs of impacts of, and responses to, climate change
28
Coming IPCC reports
 5th Assessment Report (to be finalised in 2014)
 Revised set of scenarios based on possible evolutions
of GHG emission trajectories
 Deeper coverage of the socio-economic and
humanitarian dimensions of climate change
 Special Reports
 Renewable energy: 2010
 Extreme events and disasters: 2011
 Technical Papers
29
Democracy must in essence therefore, mean the art and
science
mobilizing
the entire
physical,
Be of
the
change you
want to
see in economics
the world and
spiritual resources of all the various sections of the
people in the service of the common good for all.
30