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From Bali to Copenhagen :
Climate Change Challenges
Ainun Nishat Ph.D.
Country Representative
IUCN-Bangladesh Country Office,
and
Focal Person on Climate Change,
IUCN-Asia Regional Directorate
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008
Is Climate Change real …..?
• Climate change has risen to the top of international policy agenda.
• IPCC TAR 2001: The Earth’s Climate system has demonstrably
changed on both global and regional scales since the pre-industrial era.
The IPCC-FAR(2007), concludes that global warming is unequivocally
the result of human activities. Scientific consensus is clear; now we
need to urgently focus on what to do about it.
• CO2 emission has increased from 280 ppm before industrial revolution
to about 380 ppm. May reach 800+ ppm by end of this century. Global
average temperature is already up by 0.8C.
• Stern Review ( 2007) : ‘poorest countries and people will suffer earliest
and most’.
• Climate change and climate variability are now real and a stable
situation is not likely to be achieved soon.
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008
Some Definitions……
Climate Change: any change in climate over time.
Climate variability: variations in the mean state and other
statistics (such as occurrence of extremes, etc.) of the
climate on all temporal and spatial scales.
Adaptation is adjustment in natural or human systems in
response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their
effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial
opportunities.
Mitigation is interventions to reduce the sources or enhance
the sinks of greenhouse gases.
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008
Introduction
• UNFCCC was signed in 1992; Kyoto protocol focuses on Mitigation and
will come to end in 2012.
• IPCC-IV Report puts urgency in combined global efforts in addressing
various aspects of global warming.
• Intense negotiations will be held from now, up to December 2009,
developing countries must participate in the process effectively
• This presentation has five sections
–
–
–
–
–
Major Climate Change concerns
Progress up to Bali
Outcome of Bali COP ( COP13/MOP3)
Bali Action Plan and Road to Copenhagen
Concluding Remarks
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008
I. Major Climate Change concerns
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008
Global
Warming
Sea Level
Rise
Snow
Cover
SPM (IPCC, 2007)
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Year
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
1969
1967
1965
-0.4
0.2
1963
-0.2
0.4
1961
-0.1
1959
0.0
1957
0.1
1955
0.2
1953
Global
Deviation (°C)
0.6
1951
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
1969
0.3
1967
0.4
1965
1963
1961
1959
1957
1955
1953
1951
Deviation (°C)
Comparison of Yearly Mean Temperature
0.8
0.5
0.6
Northern
Hemisphere
0
-0.3
-0.2
-0.4
Year
Bangladesh
Dhaka
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008
Projected impacts of climate change
0°C
Food
Water
Global temperature change (relative to pre-industrial)
1°C
2°C
3°C
4°C
5°C
Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly
developing regions
Falling yields in many
Possible rising yields in
developed regions
some high latitude regions
Significant fall in water
Small mountain glaciers
availability e.g. Mediterranean
disappear – melt-water
and Southern Africa
supplies threatened in
several areas
Sea level rise
threatens major cities
Ecosystems
Extensive Damage
to Coral Reefs
Rising number of species face extinction
Extreme
Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding, heat waves
Weather
Events
Risk of Abrupt and
Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and
Major Irreversible
abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system
Changes
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008
Vulnerabilities
Physical Vulnerability Context
Extreme
Temperat
ure
Sea Level Rise
Drought
Flood
Cyclone
and
Storm
Surges
Erosion
Sectoral
Vulnerability
Context
River
Flood
Flash
Flood
+++
+++
++
+++
-
Crop Agriculture
+
++
++
+
+
-
Fisheries
++
+++
+
+
+
+++
-
Livestock
+
++
-
-
++
+
+
+++
++
+++
++
-
++
+
++
-
Industries
+++
+++
+++
+
++
+
+
-
Biodiversity
+++
+
+++
++
++
-
++
-
Health
-
-
-
-
+
+
+++
+++
-
+
Coastal
Inundation
Salinity
Intrusion
+++
++
+++
++
+
++
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
++
+
-
+
+
Infrastructure
Human Settlement
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008
-
Energy
Vulnerabilities: Livelihood
Trade
Regional distribution of
global output
Food security
Nutrition
Agriculture
Trend and sudden
shocks
Poor and non poor
Health
Climate change
impact
Infrastructure
Livelihood impact through
Employment, income,
consumption changes
Industry
Disasters
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Adjustment mechanism
such as migration
Regional dimensions
coastal and inland
Gender differentiated
impacts
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008
Vulnerabilities
Climate and Related Elements
Most Impacted Sectors
Temperature rise and drought
• Agriculture (crop, livestock, fisheries),
• Energy
• Health
• Water
Sea Level Rise and Salinity
Intrusion
• Agriculture (crop, fisheries, livestock)
• Water (water logging, drinking water, urban)
• Human settlement
• Energy
• Health
Floods
• Agriculture (crop, fisheries, livestock)
• Water (urban, industry)
• Infrastructure
• Human settlement
• Health
Cyclone and Storm Surge
• Marine Fishing
• Infrastructure
• Human settlement
• Life and property
Drainage congestion
• Water
• Agriculture (crop)
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008
Where are our concerns
North:
Compromise with life style
Snow melting and dry ski-slopes
Floods
Impact on ecosystem
Hurricanes and typhoons
Sea level rise
Health issues
Malaria
Heat waves
Capacity to cope with disasters
Reduction of green house gas
emission level
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
South:
Food and livelihood security
Urban drainage problems
Floods and cyclone : forecasting
and warning dissemination
Improvements in IWRM
including resolution of transboundary waters.
Salinity increase & sea level rise
River and coastal erosion
Disaster management
Understanding impact on
ecosystem
Question of future survival
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008
II. Progress up to Bali
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008
Global Responses
• The international political response to climate change began with
adoption of the UN Framework Convention on Climate
Change(UNFCCC) in 1992.
• Calls for all signatories including developing countries:
– to develop their inventories of GHG emission;
– formulate and implement national and regional programs related to
mitigation and adaptation;
– Promote and cooperate in development, application, diffusion,
including transfer of technologies aimed at GHG emission reduction;
– Promote sinks of Green House Gases;
– Cooperate in adaptation to impacts of climate change;
– Promote and cooperate in increasing the scientific understanding and
in education training and awareness raising.
• These initiatives should be reflected in National Communications.
Annex-1 countries have prepared 4th Communication, developing
countries have submitted 1st Communication and preparing 2nd
Communication.
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008
Goals set out in 1992 through UNFCCC
• Stabilization of the GHG concentrations at a level that
would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference
with the climatic system.
• Such a level should be achieved within a time frame
sufficient:
– To allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change.
– To ensure that food production is not threatened, and
– To enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable
manner.
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008
Global Response
(cont...)
• Parties to the UNFCCC adopted the Kyoto Protocol (KP)
with the unprecedented, legally enforced ambition of
limiting and reducing the greenhouse gas emissions.
– Annex-I countries have a target to bring down the GHG emission,
individually or jointly, by at least by 5%below 1990 levels in the first
commitment period of 2008 to 2012.
– Countries are to make demonstrable progress in achieving their
commitments by 2005. Is it happening? --- No.
– Negotiation for post 2012 period has been initiated through Bali
Action Plan.
– Heads of Govt. met in New York on 24th September 2007; Ministers
and senior officials met on 11-12th February 2008.
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008
III. Outcome of Bali COP ( COP13/MOP3)
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008
Bali action Plan
13th COP held in Bali launched a comprehensive process to enable the
full, effective and sustained implementation of the UNFCCC through longterm action, now, up to and beyond 2012, in order to reach an agreed
outcome and adopt a decision at COP-15.
The process will produce:
A shared vision for long-term cooperative action,
Set long term global goal for emission reductions,
To achieve ultimate objective of the UNFCCC, and
Uphold the principles of common but differentiated responsibilities and
respective capabilities, and
Take into account social and economic conditions and other relevant factors.
The process will address:
Enhanced national/international action on Mitigation
Enhanced action on Adaptation,
Enhanced action on Technology development and transfer to support action
on Mitigation and Adaptation,
Enhanced action on provision of Financial Resources and investment to
support action on Mitigation and adaptation and technology cooperation.
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008
Enhanced action on Mitigation
• By all developed countries
– Quantified emission limitation and reduction objectives
– Nationally appropriate mitigation commitments or
actions: Measurable, Reportable, and Verifiable.
• By all developing countries
– Nationally appropriate mitigation actions,
– Supported and enabled by technology, finance and
capacity-building, in the context of sustainable
development : Measurable, Reportable, and Verifiable.
– Positive incentives on REDD
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008
Enhanced action on Adaptation
• International cooperation to support urgent implementation of
Adaptation actions through:
– Assessment of Vulnerability
– Prioritization of actions
– Financial needs assessment
– Development of risk reduction and disaster management
strategies
– Integration of climate considerations into sectoral and national
planning
• Support programme for capacity building in formulating programmes
and projects to address the adaptation needs.
• Financial mechanism to support the implementation of activities.
• Development of new and innovative support mechanisms such as
insurance etc.
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008
Enhanced action on Technology transfer
• Technology development and transfer to support
action on Mitigation and Adaptation by:
– Scaling up of the development and transfer of
technology to developing countries through effective
mechanisms and enhanced means for removal of
obstacles to, and provision of financial and other
incentives.
– Accelerated deployment, diffusion and transfer of
affordable environmentally sound technologies,
– Cooperation in research and development of current,
new and innovative technology.
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008
Enhanced action on Finance
• Positive incentives for emission reduction
activities of developing country’s.
• Financing for implementation of adaptation
actions.
• Mobilization of public- and Private-sector funding
and investment, including facilitation of carbonfriendly investment choices
• Improved access to adequate, predictable and
sustainable financial resources including
concessional funding.
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008
IV. Bali Action Plan and Road to Copenhagen
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008
Bali Action Plan and Road to Copenhagen
• Road Map for post-2012 international response to Climate
Change has been agreed upon
• Mitigation is no longer a task for only Annex-1 or developed
countries.
• Developing as well as LDCs are also obligated to push for GHG
reduction. China, India, Indonesia etc. are also major polluters.
• Ad Hoc Working Group (AWG) on long term Cooperative Action
has been set up. AWG wil complete its work in 2009 and
present their outcome in COP 15 in Copenhagen.
• First session of the AWG will be held no later than April 2008.
There will be 4 sessions in 2008. ( March/April, June,
September, and December).
• Parties are to submit their views by 22nd February 2008 on the
Bali Work Programme.
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008
Concluding remarks
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008
Some negotiation issues at global level
•
A strong compliance regime is required. Efforts should be made to ensure that
global mean temperature will not increase beyond 2 ºc.
•
A deep emission cut is needed. IPCC suggested that developed counties need
to reduce their emission, below 1990 level, by 25-40% by 2020, for stabilization
at 450-550 ppm.
•
Larger alliance among developing countries on post Kyoto situation.
•
Additional funds commitment for adaptation needs and it’s disbursement
mechanism.
•
Binding adaptation funds
•
Technology transfer at an affordable price
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008
Where to work
• Mainstreaming of climate change concerns into country’s
programs/projects be done urgently.
• Synergy between Adaptation and Mitigation be considered
• Coastal afforestation and Wetland afforestation
• Selection of species for enhanced sequestration
• Monitoring of impacts of Climate change
• Climate change and impact on ecosystem
– Indicator species
– Movement of habitat
• Climate change and health issues
• Sea level rise
• Impact of weather on crop yield
• Compilation of traditional knowledge and folk wisdom on
disaster risk reduction
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008
Where to work
• Reducing greenhouse gas Emission from Deforestation
and ecosystem Degradation (REDD).
• Climate change and gender issues
• Capacity development in
–
–
–
–
–
science, impacts and adaptation assessment
prediction of climate risks
Preparation and implementation of CDM projects.
Agriculture sector to raise adaptive capacity,
international negotiation & climate diplomacy
• Implications of Bio-fuel / Bio Diesel be evaluated.
• GO/NGO collaboration on collaborative research &
community based adaptation activities.
• Establishment of Climate change Network to coordinate
national level activities and join global networks
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008
Thank You
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008