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A changing climate – the truth is out there
- Presentation for ‘Spatial Information and the Insurance Industry’
Dr Ray Wills
Manager, Sustainability Services, SMEC
Chair, WA Sustainable Energy Association
Adjunct Senior Research Fellow
School of Earth and Geographical Sciences,
The University of Western Australia
A changing climate for business and the
community
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The science is in, the globe is warming, and we must
both mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and rapidly
prepare for adaptation to climate change.
A raft of immediately accessible and affordable
solutions to both reduce greenhouse emissions and
provide alternative sources of energy are already in
our possession.
Some businesses and members of the community are
understandably nervous about the economic
ramifications of measures to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions in part because not enough work has been
done to assist them understand these issues.
Greenhouse and global warming
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Greenhouse theory
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Anthropogenic global warming theory late 1960’s
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Basis first proposed by Joseph Fourier in 1824
Quantified by Svante Arrhenius in 1896
Greenhouse of earth’s “blanket” - average earth temperature
about 15°C; otherwise would be -18°C
Debate late 1970’s, Rio 1992, Kyoto …
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 1988
Warming of climate is now unequivocal – global
increases in air and ocean temperatures, melting of
snow and ice, and rising sea level.
The enhanced greenhouse effect is empirically and
theoretically well-established.
Out of Eden
Industrial Era
Aust. Aboriginal Settlement
Early Hominids
Homo sapiens
Settled Agriculture (Euphrates)
Instrumental record - temperature
Greenhouse gases
IPCC Assessment Report 4
Temperature
How big?
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About WA
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WA is arguably the first Western economy with
measurable economic impact through climate change
About WA
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Annual inflow to Perth’s surface water sources dropped
from 338 GL to 114 GL
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Source: Water Corporation 2006.
About WA
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WA is arguably the first Western economy with
measurable economic impact through climate change
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WA SW has already suffered a 20% decline in rainfall in the
last 30 years - effects on runoff more serious with 50% drop
in steam flow to reservoirs - and a further 20% reduction
predicted, and this is thought to have already started at the
end of the 1990s.
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Value of lost income in water sales in dams is estimated at
$1 billion in WA through water restrictions and additions to
infrastructure (WaterCorp) - and almost another billion with
Desal II.
About WA
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A warming of 1.0°C is sufficient to move climate belts about
150 km south - thus a regional change of temperature of 2
°C is likely to have a serious impact on most life forms and
ecosystems.
About WA
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A warming of 1.0°C is sufficient to move climate belts about
150 km south - thus a regional change of temperature of 2
°C is likely to have a serious impact on most life forms and
ecosystems.
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Changes in weather will impact on wheat growing areas in
SW WA largely wiping out most of an industry worth more
than $2 billion.
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Shifting rainfall patterns and drier conditions will change the
way vineyards operate and reduce the wine crop - WA
produces around 5% of all Australian wine, but produces
about 25% of wine in super-premium and ultra-premium
categories.
About WA
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With global warming and drying of the south coast in WA,
areas with temperature increases > 2° C combined with a
decline in rainfall consistently below 400 mm will lead to the
loss of many
species of
Proteaceae
in WA's SW
- including the
iconic Banksia
and Dryandra,
and the animals
that live on them
- will die out.
Sea level changes
About WA
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Sea levels up 18.5 cm in last century
Predictions this will at least triple (more than 48 cm) over
the next ninety years.
Potential for 40 cm rise by 2040 and 1 metre sea level rise
by end of this century - not an extreme estimate - within the
bounds of scientifically-based predictions, including latest
CSIRO models.
Coastal freshwater swamps will go saline.
Fringing reefs currently a barrier protecting parts of Perth’s
coastline will be further submerged offering less protection
and allowing bigger waves passage to previously sheltered
beaches.
Sea level changes
Mandurah
at 1m sea
level rise
Courtesy of WA Sustainable Energy Association
Sea level changes
Mandurah
at 7m sea
level rise
Courtesy of WA Sustainable Energy Association
About WA
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The Indian Ocean has warmed an average 0.6°C since
1960 - only another 0.4°C is needed for widespread and
intense coral bleaching. The largest warming occurred off
Northwest WA.
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Bleaching of coral from higher ocean temperatures will kill
parts of the Ningaloo Reef just as the Great Barrier Reef.
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Other WA impacts will be the same as those around the
world - on human health, the need for businesses to get
ready for climate change and adapt to avoid physical
impacts on the whole life cycle of their business including
supply chains and infrastructure.
Global changes
http://www.igbp.kva.se//uploads/ESO_IGBP4.pdf
Economic risk of change
Climate
Risk
Sector Level
Political /
Regulatory
Physical Risk
Supply Chain
Company Level
Staff
Litigation
Reputation /
Brand
Products /
Technology
Economic models and paradigms
www.greenhouse.wa.gov.au/ documents/EGWAGO15.8.2005_000.pdf
Economic models and paradigms
Greenhouse framework
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Greenhouse gas reductions
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Life cycles
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Energy consumed in project
 Energy efficiency of materials
 Transport
 Construction
Energy consumed by users post project
Climate change and global warming adaptation
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Sea level rise and storm surge
Temperature rise – minimum rise faster than maximum
Changing rainfall and extreme storm events
Health and safety
Emergency response function
National security
Portfolio of technology options
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Improved end-use efficiency
Higher efficiency combustion technologies
Fuel switching
New automotive technologies
Decentralized power generation
Affordable renewable technologies
 Wind
 Solar thermal
 Solar photovoltaic
 Geothermal
 Tidal and waves
Capture and sequestration of carbon dioxide from power plants
or the atmosphere
Source: Graeme Pearman - GP Consulting
All technologies have uncertainties
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Cost
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Technical feasibility
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Can it reduce emissions significantly in time?
Is it acceptable
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Can it deliver significant energy on time
Capacity to deliver emissions reductions on time
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Proven versus speculative
Capacity to meet demands on time
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Cost now and when mainstream
Will the community accept?
Permanency of emissions reductions?
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Sequestration versus efficiency
Source: Graeme Pearman - GP Consulting
To market, to market
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State and Territory Governments - in absence of Australian
Government - range of policy responses to achieve
greenhouse gas abatement - key measure is a national
emissions trading scheme (NETS) to be initiated by 2010 –
Federal Labor opposition have indicated they will join if they
win office.
PM Howard joint business-government task group has
reported on an emissions trading scheme to be
implemented Federally before 2012 – comparable but more
broadly based than State proposal.
Cap and trade, taxation, penalties and offsets.
To market, to market
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Carbon emissions trading markets will be part of the
inevitable response to attempting to slow global warming
and carbon will become the single largest traded
commodity in the world.
The price of carbon will impact on energy production and
will make a range of different renewable energy projects
immediately commercially viable.
The future of energy in Australia and for the globe is an
array of sustainable energy solutions incorporating low or
zero emissions energy generation in whatever form that
ultimately proves most economically competitive.
The latest news
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http://www.theage.com.au/news/tim-colebatch/the-european-solution/2006/10/23/1161455660470.html#
The inconvenient truth is time has run out
for solutions that are simply convenient.
Dr Ray Wills
Manager, Sustainability Services, SMEC
[email protected]
Chair, WA Sustainable Energy Association
[email protected]
Adjunct Senior Research Fellow
School of Earth and Geographical Sciences,
The University of Western Australia
[email protected]