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interpreting weather and climate for your needs Fiona’s Red Kite Climate Change - the science, the policy and the ethics A presentation by Fiona Hewer MSc FRMetS for Henley College 13 February 2008 Fiona’s Red Kite Temperature evidence • current warming trend “unequivocal” (~0.74ºC /100yr) • global average sea-level rise (~2mm/yr) • glaciers and snow cover are declining; loss of Arctic sea ice Fiona’s Red Kite IPCC Synthesis Report Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global averaged air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level. Most of the observed increase in globallyaveraged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations. Fiona’s Red Kite Consequences of global temperature rises • • • • • • at 0-1ºC above 1980-1999s hundreds of millions of people exposed to increased water stress at 1ºC up to 30% species at increased extinction risk at 2ºC there will be further increases in deaths from drought, flood and heat wave at 3ºC about 30% of global coastal wetland will be lost at 4ºC significant extinctions around the globe at 5ºC millions in coastal flooding The highest projections for the 2090’s are 6.4ºC Fiona’s Red Kite What warms and cools the climate of your town • the Gulf stream • land use - dark coloured surface absorb more of the sun’s heat • green house gases • aerosols - particles in the atmosphere • land use - light coloured surfaced reflect the sun’s heat • the natural cycle of ice-ages Fiona’s Red Kite International agreements and UK targets Name UK ‘97 UK Kyoto EU15 Kyoto reduce in rel. to by 20% CO2 1990 2010 12.5% ghg 1990 2008-12 1990 (1995) 1990 2012 1990 2050 8.0% ghg CC Bill 26-32% CO2 CC Bill 60% CO2 Bali footnote 25-40% 2020 2020 Fiona’s Red Kite Climate change - the ethics • Which solutions are moral? How can we ensure the policies we implement are just? • I’m not going try and tell you what you should think, but I will discuss some tools and ideas to help you explore your own views • For whom do we want be just? Who is our moral community? • membership of the moral community gives us rights and responsibilities Fiona’s Red Kite Climate change - the ethics Technocentrism versus Ecocentrism • nature provides resources • humans are part of nature - if for humans such as fuel, we damage it we damage building materials and food ourselves • our unique powers of • nature is a complicated, intelligence allow us to study interconnected system we and understand nature cannot fully understand • we can predict and manage • humans should respect nature nature, not try to control it • we’re confident that new technical solutions can be found • it’s best to follow a precautionary approach, and not do new things unless we’re sure about the impacts