* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download Soil quality indicators as affected by different
Michael E. Mann wikipedia , lookup
Climatic Research Unit email controversy wikipedia , lookup
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference wikipedia , lookup
Soon and Baliunas controversy wikipedia , lookup
Mitigation of global warming in Australia wikipedia , lookup
Heaven and Earth (book) wikipedia , lookup
ExxonMobil climate change controversy wikipedia , lookup
Global warming controversy wikipedia , lookup
Climatic Research Unit documents wikipedia , lookup
Fred Singer wikipedia , lookup
Climate resilience wikipedia , lookup
Climate change denial wikipedia , lookup
Global warming hiatus wikipedia , lookup
General circulation model wikipedia , lookup
Climate sensitivity wikipedia , lookup
Climate engineering wikipedia , lookup
Economics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate governance wikipedia , lookup
Citizens' Climate Lobby wikipedia , lookup
Instrumental temperature record wikipedia , lookup
Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme wikipedia , lookup
Global warming wikipedia , lookup
Politics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Physical impacts of climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climate change adaptation wikipedia , lookup
Media coverage of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Tuvalu wikipedia , lookup
Attribution of recent climate change wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on human health wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Saskatchewan wikipedia , lookup
Scientific opinion on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Solar radiation management wikipedia , lookup
Climate change feedback wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in the United States wikipedia , lookup
Public opinion on global warming wikipedia , lookup
Surveys of scientists' views on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and agriculture wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and poverty wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on humans wikipedia , lookup
Climate Change and Agriculture By NEVIEN ADEL EL-HAWAT B.Sc. Home Economics (Biological and Environmental Sciences ), Al Azhar Univ., 2006 M.Sc. Environmental Sciences, Minufyia Univ., 2009 L/O/G/O What is climate change? • Climate change is a long-term shift in the climate of a specific location, region or planet. • The shift is measured by changes in features associated with average weather, such as temperature, wind patterns and precipitation. What most people don’t know is that a change in the variability of climate is also considered climate change, even if average weather conditions remain the same. • Climate change occurs when the climate of a specific area or planet is altered between two different periods of time. This usually occurs when something changes the total amount of the sun's energy absorbed by the earth's atmosphere and surface. It also happens when something changes the amount of heat energy from the earth's surface and atmosphere that escapes to space over an extended Such changes can involve both changes in average weather conditions and changes in how much the weather varies around these averages. The changes can be caused by natural processes like volcanic eruptions, variations in the sun's intensity, or very slow changes in ocean circulation or land surfaces which occur on time scales of decades, centuries or longer. • But… humans also cause climates to change by releasing greenhouse gases and aerosols into the atmosphere, by changing land surfaces, and by depleting the stratospheric ozone layer. Both natural and human factors that can cause climate change are called ‘climate ‘force' the climate to shift to new values forcings', since they push, or Why “global warming” is the wrong term • Climate change refers to general shifts in climate, including temperature, precipitation, winds, and other factors. • Global warming (as well as global cooling) refers specifically to any change in the global average surface temperature. Global warming is often misunderstood to imply that the world will warm uniformly. In fact, an increase in average global temperature will also cause the circulation of the atmosphere to change, resulting in some areas of the world warming more, others less. Some areas can even cool. • Unfortunately, although it significantly misrepresents what really happens, the term ‘global warming' is still often used by media and others to describe climate change. Why is more heat getting trapped? We are taking the stored carbon from the ground (oil and coal and gas) and burning it This releases the CO2 and so the main greenhouse gas is increasing And that is not all CO2 is the MAIN Greenhouse Gas, but not the only one. Others include: Water vapour – as in clouds – think how much warmer it is in a winter morning when the sky is cloudy? Methane – rotting and waste material that is breaking down gives this off, including landfill sites. Nitrous oxide – is produced naturally by the oceans and the rain forests, but the rising levels are caused by production of nylon, catalytic converters in cars and fertilizer Halocarbons (HFC) are totally man-made and were used in cleaning fluids and aerosols. They have now in the main been outlawed as they were a major cause of the holes in the ozone layer. But as they are slow to breakdown, they will still be a GHG problem until about 2050. What does this mean for climate change? Energy production for buildings and industrial processes are the largest source of climate-forcing carbon emissions – roughly 45% worldwide. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature Carbon Dioxide and Temperature Stabilization at 550 ppm Carbon Dioxide and Temperature “Business as Usual” (fossil intensive) 2100 Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research Associated Climate Changes Global sea-level has increased 1-2 mm/yr Duration of ice cover of rivers and lakes decreased by 2 weeks in N. Hemisphere Arctic ice has thinned substantially, decreased in extent by 1015% Reduced permafrost in polar, sub-polar, mountainous regions Growing season lengthened by 1-4 days in N. Hemisphere Retreat of continental glaciers on all continents Poleward shift of animal and plant ranges Snow cover decreased by 10% Earlier flowering dates Coral reef bleaching So in what ways is agriculture part of the problem? CO2: pastoral farms emit CO2 – more meat is being consumed in MICs, so more pigs, poultry and cattle are being reared, so more CO2. More machinery powered by fossil fuels are being used as farm production becomes mechanised, e.g. huge combine harvesters Methane: cows in particular give out a lot of methane, but so do rice paddy fields. Other material left to rot will also produce methane Nitrous oxide: results from the breakdown of both organic (manure) and inorganic (oil based) fertilizer. AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE CHANGE: NEED TO CHANGE AN PERFECT VICIOUS CIRCLE AGRICULTURE REDUCES FOREST ECOSYSTEMS, CLIMATE STABILIZATION, GLOBAL SERVICE AGRICULTURE CONTRIBUTES TO CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMATE CHANGE INCREASES VULNERABILITY OF AGRICULTURE AGRICULTURAL FRONTIER EXPANSION IS BASED ON DEFORESTATION AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE CHANGE: VIRTUOUS CIRCLE AGRICULTURE INCREASES: AGRO ECOSYSTEMS AND FOREST ECOSYSTEMS CLIMATE STABILIZATION GLOBAL SERVICE AGRICULTURE CONTRIBUTES TO FIGHTING CLIMATE CHANGE AGRICULTURAL VULNERABILITY IS REDUCED AGRICULTURE BUSSINES EXPANSION IS BASED ON SUSTAINABLE PRACTICES INCLUDING FOREST AREA INCREMENT, PROTECTION AND RESTORATION In Europe UK in the 2050s The UK is likely to get hotter - but also much wetter. And if the sea level rises, parts of East Anglia as well as parts of the south east could end up under water. Winters are likely to be milder, reducing the need for central heating. But rainfall is likely to be heavier and more frequent increasing the risk of floods. Long hot summers may boost tourism in parts of Britain, and make it possible to grow a greater variety of fruit and vegetables. Spain in the 2050s Spain and other Mediterranean countries - such as Greece, Italy and Portugal - are likely to be the worst affected countries in Europe as the climate changes. Parts of inland southern Spain, already arid, may turn into virtual desert as water shortages increase and they lose more of their vegetation. Summer temperatures may be far too hot for tourists, even on the coast. Forest fires - already more frequent than they used to be - are likely to increase dramatically, especially as rural land is abandoned. Europe's rainfall in the 2050s Winters are likely to get much wetter, especially in Scandinavia - where precipitation could go up by as much as 25% by the 2050s. Mediterranean countries will see little difference in winter rainfall, but they are likely to be much drier in the summer. Europe's rainfall in the 2080s Heavy winter downpours and flooding are likely to become more common across most of Europe by the 2080s. Precipitation could go up by more than 30% across most of Scandinavia, while in part of northern Italy it may rise by more than 50%. During the summer, on the other hand, southern Europe is likely to get much drier. While temperature rise is what we hear about…. … it is rainfall change that will have more effect. Those area that become drier will be unable to grow as much without irrigation – and currently, much irrigation practice is highly wasteful and can bring long-term damage to the soil. Extreme events are another cause of concern – unusually heavy storms or unexpectedly long periods without precipitation or unexpected heat-waves. These all give challenges to agriculture that reduced the production temporarily – challenges the idea of food security. Then global warming causes icecap and glacier melt that create rising sea levels and loss of good agricultural land to salt marsh. Temperature – In mid to high latitudes moderate warming may benefit cereal crop and pasture yields, but in seasonally dry and tropical regions even slight warming decreases yields. Precipitation – Rainfall plays a critical role in year to year variability of crop yield. Broadly speaking, precipitation is expected to increase in high latitudes and decrease at mid to low latitudes although there is high regional and seasonal variation in the level of certainty in these projections Extremes – Changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events will have significant consequences for agriculture. Increases in extreme temperature events can have high impacts on crop yields and heat stress in cattle. Increasing occurrence of drought is projected for many important agriculture regions. Extreme rainfall and flooding may also have severe consequences for agriculture at the local scale and can effect grain quality as well as quantity. Water Resources – Large areas of agriculture exists in catchments dominated by snow and glacier melt. Climate change will shift the seasonality of water availability in these areas causing earlier and more intense runoff. The increase in water at this time of year may confer no benefits to agriculture however, if there is insufficient storage capacity. Tropical storms and Sea Level Rise –Climate change is projected to decrease frequency but increase intensity of tropical storms, although this is highly uncertain. Sea level is set to rise as a consequence of increasing global temperatures. Both will increase the vulnerability of coastal and low lying agricultural areas to factors such as coastal inundation, soil salinisation and intense rainfall. CO2 Fertilization – Evidence suggests that total crop and pasture yield may rise when averaged across the globe due to effects of CO2 fertilization, which is expected to offset negative impacts of a changing climate. The accuracy of these projections and thus future food security depend critically on the magnitude of the CO2 fertilization effect under actual growing conditions. Elevated CO2 is thought to decrease grain quality. Indirect Climate Impacts: Ozone – Physiological damage to crops by increased ground-level concentrations of ozone (O3) reduces yield. O3 concentrations are projected to rise significantly due to anthropogenic pollution especially in Asia. Pests & Pathogens – Rising temperatures may alter the frequency and intensity of pest and pathogen outbreak. However, crop/ pest interactions are complex and poorly understood in the context of climate change. AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN LAC Agriculture is in the broad sense critical for LAC. Agriculture tied to LAC physical resource base and natural assets. Especially in South American countries, a great part of GHGs come from the agricultural sector. 2007 IPCC Report: – reduced yields in warmer environment (for temperate climate crops) – growing incidence of heat waves – increased heat stress – wildfires – land degradation – crop damage – soil erosion, – heavy precipitation events – saltwater intrusion – soil salinization AGRICULTURE AND LAND-USE CHANGE • DETER deforestation monitoring system from Brazil report 1,920 hectares of deforestation in Amazonas Region, Brazil, between January and February in 2011. • Asociacion Guyra Paraguay Great South American Chaco deforestation monitoring system reports 232,000 hectares deforested in this region (including portions of Argentina, Bolivia, Brasil and Paraguay ) in 2010. The deforestation rates in Paraguayan Chaco in 2011, is around 400 hectares per day. • In general, in South America agriculture is related to exotic pastures implementation for cattle ranching (mainly to beef export business) and soy/sugar cane plantations. AGRICULTURE AND LAND-USE CHANGE Asociación Guyra Paraguay WWF Agrupación de Policía Ecológica y Rural Asunción – Paraguay - Junio de 2009 REGIONAL EFFECTS IN THE RURAL SECTOR • Projected regional impacts of global warming and climate change in Latin America: • a transformation of tropical forest to savanna lands • transition from semi-arid vegetation to arid-land vegetation • Significant biodiversity loss with species extinction In terms of agriculture, projected effects include: • declining productivity of some important crop and livestock systems • adverse impacts on food security • changes in precipitation patterns • water availability disrupted for agriculture, human consumption and energy generation • degradation (and loss) of farming systems • overall increased number of people at risk of hunger AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION REDUCED VULNERABILITY MEANS INCREASED ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION CAPACITY AT THE SAME TIME! In terms of adaptation, a wide variety of strategies should be used in agriculture: – Response to climatic variability to benefit farmers – Knowledge about options to maintain production levels and yields by farmers (crops, cattle, water use, etc.) – response to short-term climatic variations – long-term, planned adaptations to help anticipate and minimize the effects • To balance agricultural expansion and ecosystems services (especially forests providing climate stabilization services) • To create possitive incentives for private land owners, especially ranchers and soy growers to preserve forest (In Paraguay the Enviromental Services Law 3001/06 is active from 2006, but still with few participants) • In Brazil, a private sector initiative leaded by Soy Growers and Processors Group are implementing a system not to buy or commercialize soy products from deforestated areas in Amazonas What the regional needs are • • • • • • Climate information systems in place (Systems to enhance climate predictability) Water management technologies adopted (Improvements in water collection, drainage, irrigation distribution systems, maximize use of water in livestock production, etc.) Better integrated management of natural resources and production systems (this includes water management, conservation agriculture, crop and pasture rotations, adjustment of planting dates, etc.) Technological innovations to reduce climatic risks (biotechnology innovations to improve drought resistance and pests and disease resistance, invasive species, and improvements in irrigation infrastructure). Institutional innovations with capacity built for early warning systems for climate (improved policy and regulatory frameworks for water management, agricultural and catastrophic risk insurance, etc.). Bottom-up participatory processes for climate change adaptation and reduce threats to climate variability. What can be done today to improve the management of climatic risks and improve the adaptation? 1. Identificate vulnerabilities and opportunities (with the agriculture sector) 2. Reduce uncertities (learn from the past, monitor the present and information for the future) 3. Identify technologies to reduce vulnerabilities (Diversify, store and efficient use of water, genetics, etc.) 4. Identify institutional architecture and policy interventions to reduce or transfer risks • Systems for early alert and response systems • Insurance, recovery loans, etc. • Institutional arrangements & specific policies CHALLENGES FOR AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE CHANGE • Inter and intra-institutional coordination for State policies • Technologies available and duly tried to face mitigation and adaptation • Technical capacity to face technological challenges • Capacity to promote public-private coalitions • Capacity to provide bottom-up capacity for understanding variability and be prepared to face it. • Sustainability of actions Summary The enhanced greenhouse effect can bring about climate change While CO2 is the major cause, methane, nitrous oxide and HFCs also contribute. Farmers are not innocents in this process but add to the GHGs themselves Climate change is having a variety of impacts on the world: Rising temperatures in many places Changing precipitation patterns, with some places getting wetter and some drier Extreme events: high winds, heavy rain, drought Rising sea level brought on by melting icecaps and warming oceans Rising levels of CO2 which may in some circumstances improve crop yields. The impacts on farming without action are mostly negative: Hotter and drier places will produce less As in these places the soil will become poorer Places liable to saltwater flooding will become unproductive. Warmer and wetter places are more likely to suffer from disease, lowering the yield. But Places in the higher latitudes (nearer the poles) are getting a longer growing season and so can produce more and different things than they have managed before. Thank You! L/O/G/O