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Climate Change Impacts in the Gulf Coast Philip B. Bedient Civil & Environmental Engineering Rice University Climate Change History Earth’s climate has always been changing – Ice age (2 m.y.a.), glacial periods, polar ice caps – 18,000 yrs ago: cold spell & continental glaciers Last 100 yrs, surface has warmed about 0.6°C In past 10,000 yrs, global temp. has never varied more than 1.5°C Why has it been changing? Various theories Intricate & complex relationship b/w ocean, atmosphere, ice, and other elements No climatic element in systems is isolated Influences path of ocean currents, transport of heat, global wind system, and climates Key Predictions for Future Increased warming – 5-9°F increase next 100 yrs Differing regional impacts Vulnerable ecosystems Widespread water concerns Secure food supply Near-term forest growth increase Damage in coastal/permafrost areas Adaptation determines health Greenhouse effect Delicate balance of incoming & outgoing energy in earth-atmosphere Atmosphere gases (water vapor, CO2, CH4, halocarbons, O3) absorb Earth’s heat Radiate some heat back to Earth, some passes through into space Humans change atmosphere – burn coal, oil, natural gas, destroy forests – CO2 risen 30%, CH4 150% in past 100 yrs Heat energy can’t pass into space Increasing Greenhouse Gases Unusual rapid warming of 0.6°C in 20th century Human activities major cause of warming Carbon emissions have increased from 1 to over 7 billion metric tons/year Lifetimes of gases last centuries CO2 Predicted to triple by 2100 Climate Assessment Tools Historical records & climate simulations General Circulation Model (GCM) – model Earth’s climate – incomplete, but still state-of-science Two main modelsHadley & Canadian Hadley & Canadian Models Principles driving models are similar Differ in representation of effects of important processes Thus, different views of 21st century climate Hadley predicts wetter climate Canadian predicts greater temp increase Uncertainties – how to represent clouds & precipitation – how emissions of greenhouse gases will change Past & Future Temperature Change Precipitation Change Large increases in 20th century (510%) Due to frequency & intensity growth Increasingly frequent heavy precipitation events in 21st century Soil Moisture Critical for agriculture & natural ecosystems Levels set by precipitation, run-off, evaporation, soil drainage Higher temp increases evaporation, removing moisture Models differ due to different temp & precipitation predictions Future Ecosystem Changes Vegetation response to CO2 concentrations double present levels Multiple stresses Climate only one of changes in global environment Effects of climate & other environmental changes Common Climate Changes Predict increased warming, precipitation, evaporation Midwest Pacific northwest Islands Northwest West Common Issues Weather extreme increase Natural ecosystem, species, and biodiversity changes Water resource changes (lake levels, snow melting) Public health and safety Shifts in tourism and recreation Sea-level variability Southeast Half of remaining wetlands located here Rapid growth (30% population increase b/w 1970 & 1990) Produces half of U.S. timber supplies Warming and thus higher evaporation predicted Lower soil moisture Significant precipitation increase also predicted Southeast: Future Climate Scenarios Southeast: Impacts on Humans Weather-related stresses – frequent weather disasters: drought, hurricane – flooding in Texas (low-lying coast counties) – high heat index & poor air-quality to increase death rate – southern heat wave & drought of 1998: $6 billion in damages & over 200 deaths – 8 to 15° heat index increase for southernmost states Southeast: Climate Effects Crop and economy impact – will vary according to area and crop – adaptation: switch crops, vary planting dates, water usage, crop rotations, fertilizers Water quality stresses – sewage, dead animals, fuel, chemicals from flooding – high temp- decrease dissolved oxygen Southeast: Climate effects Coastal area threats – sea-level rise will impact ecosystems – Obvious impacts on coastal flooding Forest productivity shifts – greater CO2: production increase in north – Pine trees Climate Change Summary Warmer temp will lead to more vigorous hydrological cycle- severe droughts &/or floods Uncertain predictions, especially in timing, magnitude, & regional patterns of climate change Balance of evidence shows there is discernible human influence on global climate