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Rachael Dempsey Penn State’s Institutes of the Environment [email protected] CARA REGION 15% of the nations population <10% of the territory 2 largest estuaries One-quarter agriculture Two-thirds forest PRIOR RESEARCH United States Regional Assessment MARA NERA Mid-Atlantic CLIMATE TRENDS Temperature: 52 degrees F, average annual T 1 degree Fahrenheit increase Projected Temperature increase Precipitation: 41 inches, average annual ppt 10% increase Projected ppt variability Extreme events are more noticeable LESSONS LEARNED FROM MARA While processes are global in extent… Interactions with human systems at regional scales are decisive for planners and policy makers Global & national Regional & local integrated assessments GOAL Web-based information resource and tools to support decision making affected by changes in land use and climate Stakeholder driven development, research and integration SECTORS Agriculture Economy Ecosystems Forests Human Health Sea-level rise Water resources THE CONSORTIUM US Environmental Protection Agency Penn State University, Carnegie Mellon University, University of Rhode Island, Virginia Institute of Marine Science Collaborators, Advisory Council, Students 100+ stakeholders Scientific, public, private, government sectors CASE STUDIES Safeguarding: Natural resources Local Economy Infrastructure THE CARA WEBSITE Integrates climate and land use change information at the regional and local levels Provides data, tools, guidance for assessing: Potential impacts Vulnerabilities Options and opportunities FOR MULTIPLE STAKEHOLDERS Improving use of information in Enhancing dialog and cooperation Adapting to potential impacts due to decision making and policy among scientists and between science and society changes in land use and climate DATA Climate data Land use data Environmental quality data Socio-economic data Data sources WHAT WEBSITE USERS CAN DO Synthesize; interpret information: Climate Land use Environment Socio-economics Gather additional information Make graphs, maps etc. Visualize the future via scenarios Assess change, vulnerability, uncertainty Systematically evaluate options; plan WEB-BASED TOOLS, GUIDANCE Tools to Tool integration Access, analyze information Integrate information Synthesize information Apply information other Content integration Web integration Guidance/ website Development with stakeholders; case studies Interactive Iterative TOOLS CARAViz ClimateTrendsViz GlobalClimateModelSelectionTool SensitivityScreenTool CARA-Tutor FloodLocator FutureShaper DecisionsSupportTool e-DelphiTool DocuMentor & AssessmentCompiler TOOLS CARAViz: a visualization/mapping tool [completed] ClimateTrendsViz GlobalClimateModelSelectionTool SensitivityScreenTool CARA-Tutor FloodLocator FutureShaper DecisionsSupportTool e-DelphiTool DocuMentor & AssessmentCompiler TOOLS CARAViz: a visualization/mapping tool [completed] ClimateTrendsViz: identifies historical climate trends, variability [in progress] GlobalClimateModelSelectionTool SensitivityScreenTool CARA-Tutor FloodLocator FutureShaper DecisionsSupportTool e-DelphiTool DocuMentor & AssessmentCompiler TOOLS CARAViz: a visualization/mapping tool [completed] ClimateTrendsViz: identifies historical climate trends, GlobalClimateModelSelectionTool: for choosing a variability [in progress] Global Climate Model [completed] SensitivityScreenTool CARA-Tutor FloodLocator FutureShaper DecisionsSupportTool e-DelphiTool DocuMentor & AssessmentCompiler TOOLS CARAViz: a visualization/mapping tool [completed] ClimateTrendsViz: identifies historical climate trends, GlobalClimateModelSelectionTool: for choosing a variability [in progress] Global Climate Model [completed] SensitivityScreenTool: to identify sensitive sectors [complete] CARA-Tutor FloodLocator FutureShaper DecisionsSupportTool e-DelphiTool DocuMentor & AssessmentCompiler TOOLS CARAViz: a visualization/mapping tool [completed] ClimateTrendsViz: identifies historical climate trends, GlobalClimateModelSelectionTool: for choosing a variability [in progress] Global Climate Model [completed] SensitivityScreenTool: to identify sensitive sectors [complete] CARA-Tutor: on climate change, land use change, integrated assessments [in progress] FloodLocator FutureShaper DecisionsSupportTool e-DelphiTool DocuMentor & AssessmentCompiler TOOLS CARAViz: a visualization/mapping tool [completed] ClimateTrendsViz: identifies historical climate trends, GlobalClimateModelSelectionTool: for choosing a variability [in progress] Global Climate Model [completed] SensitivityScreenTool: to identify sensitive sectors [complete] CARA-Tutor: on climate change, land use change, integrated FloodLocator: identifies locations vulnerable to sea level assessments [in progress] rise/floods [in progress] FutureShaper DecisionsSupportTool e-DelphiTool DocuMentor & AssessmentCompiler TOOLS CARAViz: a visualization/mapping tool [completed] ClimateTrendsViz: identifies historical climate trends, GlobalClimateModelSelectionTool: for choosing a variability [in progress] Global Climate Model [completed] SensitivityScreenTool: to identify sensitive sectors [complete] CARA-Tutor: on climate change, land use change, integrated FloodLocator: identifies locations vulnerable to sea level FutureShaper: generates comprehensive future scenarios of assessments [in progress] rise/floods [in progress] the [near completion] DecisionsSupportTool e-DelphiTool DocuMentor & AssessmentCompiler TOOLS CARAViz: a visualization/mapping tool [completed] ClimateTrendsViz: identifies historical climate trends, GlobalClimateModelSelectionTool: for choosing a variability [in progress] Global Climate Model [completed] SensitivityScreenTool: to identify sensitive sectors [complete] CARA-Tutor: on climate change, land use change, integrated FloodLocator: identifies locations vulnerable to sea level FutureShaper: generates comprehensive future scenarios of DecisionsSupportTool: identifies critical decisions, policy assessments [in progress] rise/floods [in progress] the [near completion] options [in progress] e-DelphiTool DocuMentor & AssessmentCompiler TOOLS CARAViz: a visualization/mapping tool [completed] ClimateTrendsViz: identifies historical climate trends, GlobalClimateModelSelectionTool: for choosing a variability [in progress] Global Climate Model [completed] SensitivityScreenTool: to identify sensitive sectors [complete] CARA-Tutor: on climate change, land use change, integrated FloodLocator: identifies locations vulnerable to sea level FutureShaper: generates comprehensive future scenarios of DecisionsSupportTool: identifies critical decisions, policy e-DelphiTool: DocuMentor & AssessmentCompiler assessments [in progress] rise/floods [in progress] the [near completion] options [in progress] facilitates multiple stakeholder input, participation [complete] TOOLS CARAViz: a visualization/mapping tool [completed] ClimateTrendsViz: identifies historical climate trends, GlobalClimateModelSelectionTool: for choosing a variability [in progress] Global Climate Model [completed] SensitivityScreenTool: to identify sensitive sectors [complete] CARA-Tutor: on climate change, land use change, integrated FloodLocator: identifies locations vulnerable to sea level FutureShaper: generates comprehensive future scenarios of DecisionsSupportTool: identifies critical decisions, policy e-DelphiTool: DocuMentor & AssessmentCompiler: manages, assessments [in progress] rise/floods [in progress] the [near completion] options [in progress] facilitates multiple stakeholder input, participation [complete] integrates, synthesizes information [in progress] STAKEHOLDER CONCERNS How has climate of the mid & upper Atlantic region changed in recent past? How well do the models work? How well do they simulate this climate? CLIMATE TOOLS View current and historic climate by region, county Choose among 7 Global Climate Models Analyze T or ppt for region, county View model’s projections over time Compare with other models CLIMATE VARIABLES Temperature Precipitation TIME PERIODS Seasons: DJF, MAM, JJA, SON 30-year periods: 1961-1990 2010-2039 2040-2069 2070-2099 Model outputs only for monthly average (time scales < one month NOT considered) EXAMPLE TIME SERIES TOWANDA, PA (HCN DATA) MODEL EVALUATION Description of climate models used (currently 5, planning on 7) Modeled and observed climate variables for 1961-1990: seasonal averages (planning) interannual variability 7 GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (HCCPR) Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis (CCC) Center for Climate Research Studies (CCSR)/ National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) Max Planck Institute für Meteorologie (MPIfM) National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) MODEL EVALUATION LITTLE FALLS, NY EVALUATION OVER REGION MODEL PROJECTIONS Description of model inputs (greenhouse gas concentrations) Projected climate IPCC CLIMATE SCENARIO GENERATION Carbon Cycle Model CO2 emissions Physical climate Model CO2 concentrations Population growth, economy, behavior, etc. (IPCC “storyline”: A2, B2, etc.) Climate variables: Temperature, precipitation, humidity, winds, etc. RESULTING CO2 CONCENTRATIONS Used by CARA 2000 2020 2040 year 2060 2080 2100 IPCC (2001) PROJECTIONS, LITTLE FALLS, NY INFORMATION INTEGRATION Climate & Land Use Socio-economic factors Environmental quality