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Rachael Dempsey
Penn State’s Institutes of the Environment
[email protected]
CARA REGION
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15% of the nations population
<10% of the territory
2 largest estuaries
One-quarter agriculture
Two-thirds forest
PRIOR RESEARCH
United States Regional Assessment
MARA
 NERA
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Mid-Atlantic CLIMATE TRENDS
Temperature:
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52 degrees F, average annual T
1 degree Fahrenheit increase
Projected Temperature increase
Precipitation:
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41 inches, average annual ppt
10% increase
Projected ppt variability
Extreme events are more noticeable
LESSONS LEARNED FROM MARA
While processes are global in extent…
Interactions with human systems at
regional scales are decisive for
planners and policy makers
Global & national  Regional & local
integrated assessments
GOAL
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Web-based information resource and
tools to support decision making
affected by changes in land use and
climate
Stakeholder driven development,
research and integration
SECTORS
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Agriculture
Economy
Ecosystems
Forests
Human Health
Sea-level rise
Water resources
THE CONSORTIUM
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US Environmental Protection Agency
Penn State University, Carnegie Mellon
University, University of Rhode Island,
Virginia Institute of Marine Science
Collaborators, Advisory Council, Students
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100+ stakeholders
Scientific, public, private, government sectors
CASE
STUDIES
Safeguarding:
 Natural
resources
 Local Economy
 Infrastructure
THE CARA WEBSITE
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Integrates climate and land use change
information at the regional and local levels
Provides data, tools, guidance for
assessing:
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Potential impacts
Vulnerabilities
Options and opportunities
FOR MULTIPLE STAKEHOLDERS
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Improving use of information in
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Enhancing dialog and cooperation
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Adapting to potential impacts due to
decision making and policy
among scientists and between science and
society
changes in land use and climate
DATA
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Climate data
Land use data
Environmental quality data
Socio-economic data
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Data sources
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WHAT WEBSITE USERS CAN DO
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Synthesize; interpret information:
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Climate
Land use
Environment
Socio-economics
Gather additional information
Make graphs, maps etc.
Visualize the future via scenarios
Assess change, vulnerability, uncertainty
Systematically evaluate options; plan
WEB-BASED TOOLS, GUIDANCE
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Tools to
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Tool integration
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Access, analyze information
Integrate information
Synthesize information
Apply information
other
Content integration
Web integration
Guidance/ website
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Development with stakeholders; case studies
Interactive
Iterative
TOOLS
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CARAViz
ClimateTrendsViz
GlobalClimateModelSelectionTool
SensitivityScreenTool
CARA-Tutor
FloodLocator
FutureShaper
DecisionsSupportTool
e-DelphiTool
DocuMentor & AssessmentCompiler
TOOLS
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CARAViz: a visualization/mapping tool [completed]
ClimateTrendsViz
GlobalClimateModelSelectionTool
SensitivityScreenTool
CARA-Tutor
FloodLocator
FutureShaper
DecisionsSupportTool
e-DelphiTool
DocuMentor & AssessmentCompiler
TOOLS
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CARAViz: a visualization/mapping tool [completed]
ClimateTrendsViz: identifies historical climate trends,
variability [in progress]
GlobalClimateModelSelectionTool
SensitivityScreenTool
CARA-Tutor
FloodLocator
FutureShaper
DecisionsSupportTool
e-DelphiTool
DocuMentor & AssessmentCompiler
TOOLS
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CARAViz: a visualization/mapping tool [completed]
ClimateTrendsViz: identifies historical climate trends,
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GlobalClimateModelSelectionTool: for choosing a
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variability [in progress]
Global Climate Model [completed]
SensitivityScreenTool
CARA-Tutor
FloodLocator
FutureShaper
DecisionsSupportTool
e-DelphiTool
DocuMentor & AssessmentCompiler
TOOLS
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CARAViz: a visualization/mapping tool [completed]
ClimateTrendsViz: identifies historical climate trends,
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GlobalClimateModelSelectionTool: for choosing a
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variability [in progress]
Global Climate Model [completed]
SensitivityScreenTool: to identify sensitive sectors [complete]
CARA-Tutor
FloodLocator
FutureShaper
DecisionsSupportTool
e-DelphiTool
DocuMentor & AssessmentCompiler
TOOLS
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CARAViz: a visualization/mapping tool [completed]
ClimateTrendsViz: identifies historical climate trends,
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GlobalClimateModelSelectionTool: for choosing a
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variability [in progress]
Global Climate Model [completed]
SensitivityScreenTool: to identify sensitive sectors [complete]
CARA-Tutor: on climate change, land use change, integrated
assessments [in progress]
FloodLocator
FutureShaper
DecisionsSupportTool
e-DelphiTool
DocuMentor & AssessmentCompiler
TOOLS
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CARAViz: a visualization/mapping tool [completed]
ClimateTrendsViz: identifies historical climate trends,
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GlobalClimateModelSelectionTool: for choosing a
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variability [in progress]
Global Climate Model [completed]
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SensitivityScreenTool: to identify sensitive sectors [complete]
CARA-Tutor: on climate change, land use change, integrated
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FloodLocator: identifies locations vulnerable to sea level
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assessments [in progress]
rise/floods [in progress]
FutureShaper
DecisionsSupportTool
e-DelphiTool
DocuMentor & AssessmentCompiler
TOOLS
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CARAViz: a visualization/mapping tool [completed]
ClimateTrendsViz: identifies historical climate trends,
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GlobalClimateModelSelectionTool: for choosing a
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variability [in progress]
Global Climate Model [completed]
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SensitivityScreenTool: to identify sensitive sectors [complete]
CARA-Tutor: on climate change, land use change, integrated
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FloodLocator: identifies locations vulnerable to sea level
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FutureShaper: generates comprehensive future scenarios of
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assessments [in progress]
rise/floods [in progress]
the [near completion]
DecisionsSupportTool
e-DelphiTool
DocuMentor & AssessmentCompiler
TOOLS
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CARAViz: a visualization/mapping tool [completed]
ClimateTrendsViz: identifies historical climate trends,

GlobalClimateModelSelectionTool: for choosing a
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variability [in progress]
Global Climate Model [completed]

SensitivityScreenTool: to identify sensitive sectors [complete]
CARA-Tutor: on climate change, land use change, integrated
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FloodLocator: identifies locations vulnerable to sea level
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FutureShaper: generates comprehensive future scenarios of
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DecisionsSupportTool: identifies critical decisions, policy
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assessments [in progress]
rise/floods [in progress]
the [near completion]
options [in progress]
e-DelphiTool
DocuMentor & AssessmentCompiler
TOOLS

CARAViz: a visualization/mapping tool [completed]
ClimateTrendsViz: identifies historical climate trends,

GlobalClimateModelSelectionTool: for choosing a
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variability [in progress]
Global Climate Model [completed]

SensitivityScreenTool: to identify sensitive sectors [complete]
CARA-Tutor: on climate change, land use change, integrated

FloodLocator: identifies locations vulnerable to sea level
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FutureShaper: generates comprehensive future scenarios of
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DecisionsSupportTool: identifies critical decisions, policy
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e-DelphiTool:
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DocuMentor & AssessmentCompiler
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assessments [in progress]
rise/floods [in progress]
the [near completion]
options [in progress]
facilitates multiple stakeholder input,
participation [complete]
TOOLS

CARAViz: a visualization/mapping tool [completed]
ClimateTrendsViz: identifies historical climate trends,

GlobalClimateModelSelectionTool: for choosing a
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variability [in progress]
Global Climate Model [completed]

SensitivityScreenTool: to identify sensitive sectors [complete]
CARA-Tutor: on climate change, land use change, integrated

FloodLocator: identifies locations vulnerable to sea level

FutureShaper: generates comprehensive future scenarios of
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DecisionsSupportTool: identifies critical decisions, policy

e-DelphiTool:
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DocuMentor & AssessmentCompiler: manages,
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assessments [in progress]
rise/floods [in progress]
the [near completion]
options [in progress]
facilitates multiple stakeholder input,
participation [complete]
integrates, synthesizes information [in progress]
STAKEHOLDER CONCERNS
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How has climate of the mid & upper
Atlantic region changed in recent past?
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How well do the models work?
How well do they simulate this climate?
CLIMATE TOOLS
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View current and historic climate by
region, county
Choose among 7 Global Climate
Models
Analyze T or ppt for region, county
View model’s projections over time
Compare with other models
CLIMATE VARIABLES
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Temperature
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Precipitation
TIME PERIODS
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Seasons: DJF, MAM, JJA, SON
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30-year periods:
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1961-1990
2010-2039
2040-2069
2070-2099
Model outputs only for monthly average
(time scales < one month NOT considered)
EXAMPLE TIME SERIES
TOWANDA, PA (HCN DATA)
MODEL EVALUATION
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Description of climate models used
(currently 5, planning on 7)
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Modeled and observed climate
variables for 1961-1990:
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seasonal averages
(planning) interannual variability
7 GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS
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Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
(HCCPR)
Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial
Research Organisation (CSIRO)
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)
Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis
(CCC)
Center for Climate Research Studies (CCSR)/
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
Max Planck Institute für Meteorologie (MPIfM)
National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
MODEL EVALUATION
LITTLE FALLS, NY
EVALUATION OVER REGION
MODEL PROJECTIONS
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Description of model inputs
(greenhouse gas concentrations)
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Projected climate
IPCC CLIMATE SCENARIO GENERATION
Carbon Cycle Model
CO2
emissions
Physical climate Model
CO2
concentrations
Population growth,
economy, behavior, etc.
(IPCC “storyline”:
A2, B2, etc.)
Climate
variables:
Temperature,
precipitation,
humidity, winds,
etc.
RESULTING CO2 CONCENTRATIONS
Used by CARA
2000
2020
2040
year
2060
2080
2100
IPCC (2001)
PROJECTIONS, LITTLE FALLS, NY
INFORMATION INTEGRATION
Climate & Land Use
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Socio-economic factors
Environmental quality