* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download Climate change
Economics of climate change mitigation wikipedia , lookup
German Climate Action Plan 2050 wikipedia , lookup
Myron Ebell wikipedia , lookup
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference wikipedia , lookup
Global warming hiatus wikipedia , lookup
Instrumental temperature record wikipedia , lookup
Climatic Research Unit email controversy wikipedia , lookup
Michael E. Mann wikipedia , lookup
Global warming controversy wikipedia , lookup
Climate resilience wikipedia , lookup
Soon and Baliunas controversy wikipedia , lookup
Heaven and Earth (book) wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on human health wikipedia , lookup
ExxonMobil climate change controversy wikipedia , lookup
Global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climatic Research Unit documents wikipedia , lookup
Fred Singer wikipedia , lookup
Economics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate engineering wikipedia , lookup
Climate sensitivity wikipedia , lookup
General circulation model wikipedia , lookup
Climate change feedback wikipedia , lookup
Climate change denial wikipedia , lookup
Citizens' Climate Lobby wikipedia , lookup
Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment wikipedia , lookup
Climate change adaptation wikipedia , lookup
Climate governance wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming wikipedia , lookup
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change wikipedia , lookup
Solar radiation management wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and agriculture wikipedia , lookup
Politics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Tuvalu wikipedia , lookup
Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme wikipedia , lookup
Attribution of recent climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in the United States wikipedia , lookup
Media coverage of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on humans wikipedia , lookup
Scientific opinion on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and poverty wikipedia , lookup
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report wikipedia , lookup
Public opinion on global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change, industry and society wikipedia , lookup
Surveys of scientists' views on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Belgian global change research 1990-2002 Climate change Pr. J.P. van Ypersele, Université catholique de Louvain With support from: Ph. Van Haver, S. Van Homwegen, E. Vanvyve, V. Coulon, and Ph. Marbaix Global change research 1990-2002 : Climate change [email protected] Questions 1-5 1.How is the earth’s climate changing now? 2.Is present climate change different from past climate change? 3.Why has the climate changed in the past? 4.Why is climate changing now? 5.How will climate likely change during the 21st century? Global change research 1990-2002 : Climate change [email protected] Questions 6-10 • 6. Are unexpected climate events possible in the longer term? • 7. Will climate change affect atmospheric ozone? • 8. Will the Kyoto Protocol save the climate? • 9. Where has Belgian research made a difference in the international effort? • 10. Key uncertainties to be adressed 12 years of researches can not be summarized in 10 minutes, only limited snapshots will be shown. Global change research 1990-2002 : Climate change [email protected] How is the climate changing now ? 1833 2002 Annually-averaged surface air temperature at BrusselsUccle, 1833 > 2002 (IRM) (fig 2.5, p67) Global change research 1990-2002 : Climate change [email protected] How is the climate changing now ? (2) Sea-ice thickness decreases as well: (b) (a) 1980 1990 2000 In the Arctic Ocean, the sea-ice surface is decreasing at an average rate of 25.000 km2 / year (nearly the surface of Belgium) (fig 2.10, p70)(Source: ULB-GLACIOL) Global change research 1990-2002 : Climate change [email protected] How is the climate changing now ? (3) Tropical regions : Rising temperatures at Bujumbura,Tanganyika lake. Links with ENSO (El Niño), lake productivity studied by ENSO and CLIMLAKE teams (RUG, MRAC, UCL, FUNDP, ULg). (fig 2.12, p71) Global change research 1990-2002 : Climate change [email protected] Is present change different from past ? +0.4C 0C -0.2C 1000 1500 1800 Climate of the last millennium : . climate reconstructions (dark and light blue) . global 3D atmosphere-sea-ice-ocean model (grey; red=mean) (UCL-ASTR) (fig 2.17, p73) 2000 Global change research 1990-2002 : Climate change [email protected] Is present change different from past ? Model simulation over the last glacial cycle (VUB) ice-covered area : at the last glacial maximum, time evolution (last 120 000 Y, change connected with earth orbit) Global change research 1990-2002 : Climate change [email protected] How will climate change during the 21st century ? •In addition to researches seeking to better know and understand the “global picture” of the anthropogenic warming, other studies involves more detailed and regional aspects. Model results for the retreat of the Sofiyskiy Glacier (Altai Mountains, South Siberia), which may completely disappear (VUB-DG) Global change research 1990-2002 : Climate change [email protected] How will climate change during the 21st century ? 3 hydrological models / Gete basin Total basin discharge (mm/month) (IRM, KULeuven, FUSAGx, ULg) 0 with T and precip from model 1 (CGCM1) with T and precip from model 2 (ECHAM4) 0 (fig 2.35, p91) • The more greenhouse gases, the more warming and damages • Uncertainties are still large and relates to serious issues, e.g. flooding and/or drought severity Global change research 1990-2002 : Climate change [email protected] Unexpected longer-term events ? (fig 2.28, p82) - Atmosphere-ice-ocean interactions around Antarctica involve complex processes. - The West Antarctic ice sheet is potentially unstable; its melting may contribute to a large long-term sea-level rise (ULB-GLACIOL) Global change research 1990-2002 : Climate change [email protected] Conclusions • Belgian climate research has contributed significantly to international research efforts such as WCRP, IGBP, and to the IPCC. • It has contributed to show and quantify the sensitivity of the earth’s climate to natural and human factors • It is time for action, way beyond Kyoto, and research is needed also about solutions, and obstacles to their implementation • BUT fundamental climate research continues to be essential for providing the