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Downscaling Tools Introduction to LARS-WG and SDSM The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada LARS-WG stochastic weather generator ( http:\\www.iacr.bbsrc.ac.uk\mas-models\larswg.html ) • Generation of long weather time-series suitable for risk assessment • Ability to extend the simulation of weather to unobserved locations • A computationally inexpensive tool to produce climate change scenarios incorporating changes in means and in variability The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada LARS-WG stochastic weather generator ( http:\\www.lars.bbsrc.ac.uk\model\larswg.html ) Parametric- e.g., WGEN Semi-parametric - e.g., LARS-WG 0.1 0.12 0.09 0.1 0.08 (mean, sd) 0.07 0.08 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.01 0 0 1 • • • • • 4 7 10 13 16 19 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 Generates precipitation, min and max temperature and solar radiation Modelling of precipitation events is based on wet/dry series Semi-empirical distributions are used for precipitation amounts, dry/wet series and solar radiation Temperature and solar radiation are conditioned on the wet/dry status of a day Temperature and solar radiation are cross-correlated The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada LARS-WG • Model calibration - SITE ANALYSIS • Model validation - QTEST • Generation of synthetic weather data GENERATOR The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada SITE ANALYSIS The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada QTEST Compare observed and synthetic data to evaluate LARS-WG performance Precipitation Maximum Minimum Solar Precipitation radiation temperature temperature variability variability variability variability Maximum Minimum Solar temperature radiation temperature 1.8 160 1.8 30 70 123.5 25 Standard deviation Standard deviation (°C) Standard deviation (m(°C) m ) Radiation (MJm -2) (°C) Maxim Minim um tem perature Precipitation total (m m-2)) Standard deviation (MJm 1.6 140 1.6 60 3 25 101.4 20 1.4 120 1.2 50 1.2 20100 82.5 15 1 40 21 80 1560.8 0.8 101.5 60 30 0.6 1040.6 40 0.4 20 1 0.4 5 5220 0.2 0.2 0.5 10 0 00 00 0 Month Month Month Month Month Dec Dec Dec Dec Jan Jan Jan JanJan Jan Feb Feb Feb FebFeb Feb Mar Mar MarMar Mar Apr Apr AprApr Apr May May MayMay May Jun Jun Jun JunJun Jun Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Sep Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Sep Sep Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Oct Oct Oct OctNov Nov Dec Nov Nov Nov NovDec Dec Obs Obs Obs Obs WG WG WG WG Month Month The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada GENERATOR Generate synthetic weather data: to extend time series, or for climate change studies Scenario file Base scenario file The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada GENERATOR Days with withMinimum minimum temperature 30°C > 0°C temperature < maximum Days temperature Precipitation Maximum temperature 16 1.2 180 14 25 Num ber of days Num ber perature of days (°C) Minim um tem tem Precipitation total (m (°C) m) Maxim um perature 14160 1 12 140 12 20 10 0.8 120 10 15 100 8 0.6 8 80 6 10 6 0.460 4 4 40 0.225 20 2 0 000 0 Base Base Base Base Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Feb Feb Feb Feb Feb MarMar Mar Mar Mar Apr Apr Apr Apr Apr May May May May May Jun Jun Jun Jun Jun Jul Jul JulJul Jul Aug Aug Aug Aug Aug Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Nov Nov Nov Nov Nov Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec 2050s 2050s 2050s 2050s Month Month Month Month Month The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Limitations of LARS-WG (and weather generators in general) ... • Temporal downscaling only • Designed for use at individual sites only (no spatial correlation) • Can only represent events in calibration data set • Generally underestimate variability The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada SDSM 1. A decision support tool for assessing local climate change impacts 2. Facilitates the rapid development of multiple, low-cost, single-site scenarios of daily surface weather variables under current and future climate forcing 3. Based on a multiple regression-based method The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada SDSM Structure 7 steps: • Quality Control and Data Transformation • Screening of Predictor Variables • Model Calibration • Weather Generation (using observed predictors) • Statistical Analyses • Graphing Model Output • Scenario Generation (using climate model predictors) The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Model Verification The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Victoria: Maximum temperature 30 25 20 15 CGCM1 GA1 Downscaled 10 5 Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb 0 Jan (°C) 1961-1990 The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Tmax > 25°C The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Cautionary Remarks • SDSM provides a parsimonious technique of scenario construction that complements other methods • SDSM should not be used uncritically as a “black box” (evaluate all relationships using independent data) • Local knowledge is an invaluable source of information when determining sensible combinations of predictors • Daily precipitation amount at individual stations is the most problematic variable to downscale • The plausibility of all SDSM scenarios depends on the realism of the climate model forcing • Try to apply multiple forcing scenarios (via different GCMs, ensemble members, time–slices, emission pathways, etc.) The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada Projet FACC (en cours 2003-2004) Etude sur force/faiblesse de SDSM et LARS-WG pour extrêmes et variabilité climatique Coordonnateur Philippe Gachon Collaborateurs : - Ouranos : Alain Bourque, René Roy, Claude Desjarlais, Georges Desrochers, Vicky Slonosky, Diane Chaumont - EC-SMC (Qc) : Jeanna Goldstein, Jennifer Milton, Nicolas Major - McGill : VTV Nguyen, Charles Lin - INRS-ETE : André St Hilaire, Bernard Bobée, Taha Ouarda - UQAM : Peter Zwack - CCIS : Elaine Barrow - Post-Doc et étudiants : Tan Nguyen (PostDoc); Massoud Hessami (PostDoc); Mohamed Abul Kashem (PhD) The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada 1st Objective : intercompare SDSM & LARS-WG for downscaling extremes (regional case-studies) 5 Régions à étudier (Stat. Downscaling) 2 1 1961-1990 Tmin Tmax Tmoy Precipitation tot. 3 5 The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada 1 2 6 4 3 5 The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada 2nd Objective Develop observed climate indices used for verification & analysis (using STARDEX software) The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION !! The Canadian Climate Impacts Scenarios (CCIS) Project is funded by the Climate Change Action Fund and provides climate change scenarios and related information to the VIA community in Canada