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Transcript
The Future of Food Security in Global Change Scenarios Thomas E. Downing Gina Ziervogel Stockholm Environment Institute • Why scenarios? • Three methodological challenges • Toward a research agenda Why scenarios? • The nature of the system is beyond our understanding: – Complexity: behaviour emerges from the interaction of many agents – Time scale of concern is decades to a century (and beyond) • Prediction is impossible • Policy options are many and at multiple scales that preclude simple decision support systems What is a scenario anyway? • Narrative of internally consistent processes, actors and linkages • Quantitative input to global change models • Path analysis linking present with scenario future • Vision of desirable worlds (or nightmare of avoidable futures) From the IPCC Who frames scenarios? • Participation is limited by scenario process • Scenarios are framed for specific purposes • Vulnerable are rarely directly involved • Insight qualified by top-down scenarios • IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios • Global Scenario Groups Great Transitions SRES Scenario Families SRES: Link GHG emissions to global concentrations to global climate change Purpose: Global GHG profiles Constraint: Government approval Bias: Poorest developing country in 2080s is as rich as OECD is now Global Scenario Group Conventional Worlds Barbarization market forces fortress world policy reform breakdown Great Transitions eco-communalism new sustainability How are local and global linked? Drought Flood Cyclone 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 1970 1965 Profiles • Multiple dimensions of rural food insecurity in India 14 Himachal Pradesh 12 Size of circle is related to nutritional status Food Access Haryana Punjab 10 Rajasthan Karmataka Andhra Uttar Pradesh Pradesh Gujarat 8 Assam Kerala Maharashtra West Bengal Orissa Madhya Pradesh Tamil Nadu 6 Bihar 4 2 4 6 8 10 Food Availability 12 14 0% Food availability Food production deficit Cereal instability Environmental sustainability Storm hazard Drought hazard Very low food consumption Inadequate food consumption Wastelands Food access and livelihoods Poverty Dependence on labour Rural infrastructure Female sex ratio Female literacy Scheduled peoples Life expectancy Illiteracy Roads Electricity Agricultural labourers Food absorption and nutrition Chronic energy deficiency Stunted children Underw eight children Infant mortality Health infrastructure Hospital beds Safe drinking w ater 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% How is a close coupled system represented? Two approaches Compared Aggregate demand series scaled so 1973=100 200 180 Agent based: 160 Discontinuities Large range of results 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 J- J- J- J- J- J- J- J- J- J- J- J- J- J- J- J- J- J- J- J- J- J- J- J- J73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 Climate change impacts Simulation Date 250 BetaMH 100 GammaMH DeltaMH 50 2041 2039 2037 2035 2033 2031 2029 2027 2025 2023 2021 0 2019 Smooth scenarios Modest range AlphaMH 150 2017 Dynamic simulation: 200 2015 Relative Demand 140 Toward a research agenda • Formal comparison of scenario processes • Experiments with large group scenario development • Peer review and methodological critique • Reconnecting theory and practice