Download Scenarios in Land Use and Land Cover Change

Scenario-building as a
communication tool
Skryhan Hanna
Krasnoyarsk, February, 15 – February, 22, 2014
The Anthropocene
Source: http://www.kk.org/thetechnium/archives/2008/12/welcome_to_the.php
What will the future bring?
Observations
The problem studying with the future
•
•
•
•
We can’t observe it, but …
We know that it’ll be different (probably)
We cannot use traditional scientific methods
We need a set of tools to tackle the unknowns
and uncertainties of the future
The way we address ‘futures‘ in complex
systems depends on:
• (a) how well we
understand a system‘s
complexity / causalities;
• (b) how uncertain we are
about future
developments of key
drivers
Source: Zurek, M., Henrichs, T., 2007. Linking scenarios across geographical scales in
international environmental assessments. Technological Forecasting and Social Change.
Scenario
“Scenario (outcome) – a plausible image of the
future, based on the qualitative or quantitative
interpretation of a set of scenario assumptions,
which can be presented as narrative storylines
or quantitative figures and maps (models)”
(Metzger et al., 2010)
Scenarios are not predictions!
Scenarios and projections
• Scenarios as tools to
– …explore the future,
– …assess the effects of future (environmental, social)
change,
– …describe drivers of change – social, economic, policy,
technology, governance,
– …assess policy options in a context,
– …provide a platform for stakeholder discussion,
– …deal with uncertainty,
– …connect descriptions of the future to the present
through a series of causal links,
– …etc.
We can influence the future!
Types of scenarios
Advantages and disadvantages
• Critic of Explanatory scenarios : the constraints of the present are likely to
lead to conservative scenarios, in that the progress that could be reached
is underestimated and new options are not taken into consideration
Scenario development
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•
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Qualitative descriptions of the range and role of different land use change drivers
Quantitative assessments of the total area requirement (quantity) of each land use
type, as a function of changes in the relevant drivers for each scenario
Spatial allocation rules to locate the land use quantities in geographic space across
Europe
Scenario limitations
Development of explanatory
scenarios
Define
the
problem
Define
driving
forces
Select
scenario
axis
Develop
scenarios
Use
scenario
in policy
Define
driving
forces
1) Identifying
driving forces /
impact factors
(for each ESTEP
group)
Driving forces: ESTEP
Environmental, Social, Technological,
Economic, Political
2) Assess of
significance and
likelihood of
each impact
factor (for each
ESTEP group)
3) Distribute
impact factors
on significance
and possibility
(regards to
whole problem)
4) Identifying
the most
important
impact factors
Select
scenario
axis
Development of explanatory scenarios
Select
scenario
axis
Develop
scenarios
Jazz
Symphony
ENERGY SECURITY
Higher energy production
Greater trading and diversity of international
fossil energy suppliers
Wider diversity of energy resource types
„Has government-promoted investment in
infrastructure
ENERGY QUITY
On average, energy equity progresses
better
More people are able to afford more energy
because the global market leads to higher
GDP growth
Develop
scenarios
Energy equity is less because there are
inevitably interventions restricting
GDP growth
Funds directed into low-carbon initiatives
would actually start diverting funds from
other government priorities such as health
care and other programmes
Financial resources are not limitless
Governments have to set spending
priorities
Wise choice of policies as identified in the
WEC World Energy Trilemma Report could
avoid this drop, as countries strive to score
well on the WEC’s trilemma index
Jazz
Symphony
ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY
Emissions don’t drop until after 2040
Performance improves markedly if a bottom
up carbon market develops early in the
scenario, but the higher GDP growth still
means higher emissions
Puts more emphasis on adaptation
Develop
scenarios
Scores well on environmental impact
mitigation particularly CO2 emission
reduction,
with emissions dropping after 2020
Externalities are more effectively
internalised:
this is primarily because countries adopt a
range of mechanisms to meet treaty
obligations on CO2
Higher carbon prices would achieve higher
emission reduction
The market instrument emission trading is
assumed as the leading mechanism for
meeting CO2 emission obligations in the
second part of the scenario period
Development of scenario
Problem: Transportation system in
Krasnoyarsk
Forecasting period: 2014 - 2034
• Step 1-2: Work in small groups – 30 min
– Step 1. Identifying driving forces / impact factors influencing in
present and future
– Step 2. Assess of significance and likelihood of each impact
factor (for each ESTEP group). Fill in the tables
• Step 3. Distribution of driving forces for whole problems –
15 min
– Distribute impact factors
– Choose the most important factors
• Step 4. Choosing and naming of scenario axis – 15 min
• Step 5. Discussion and naming of scenarios – 15 min
Development of scenario
Problem: Transportation system in
Krasnoyarsk
Forecasting period: 2014 - 2034
High importance
Low influencing
High influencing
Low importance