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A few thoughts about energy scenarios from an industrial perspective Renaud Crassous, EdF Ecole de Physique des Houches 02/03/2014 What do we need? 1. A broad view of possible future states of the world (growth, technologies, lifestyles, ressources, environment, institutions, etc.) What do we need? 1. A broad view of possible future states of the world (growth, technologies, lifestyles, ressources, environment, institutions, etc.) 2. A robust assessment of public policies, to build optimal strategies and to build a sound dialog with other stakeholders Several available methods… • Narratives – anything that help us to « think out of the box - e.g. Shell storylines (Moutains / Oceans) • External Quantitative pathways – SRES, World Energy Outlook, RCPs • Consultants (Oxford economics, CERA, Enerdata, research centers, etc.) • Models to play with at home • ‘Back of the envelope’ / ‘rule of thumb’ …overwhelming data… ... and puzzling uncertainties? A ‘reader’s guide’ for external scenarios (1/3) • Three levels of information: (i) Storyline: Explicit/Implicit motivation of the scenario builder(s) • Energy demand : behavioral change? new acceleration of efficiency gains ? And/or further decline of industry? • Energy Supply: A new wave of technical revolution that allow to fulfill growing needs on the long-run(backstop technologies) in spite of finite fossil resources. • Electricity: what role in the future energy mix? A ‘reader’s guide’ for external scenarios (2/3) (ii) Concrete indicators of feasibility/likelyhood Quantitative data for the reader to build his own assessment of the likelyhood of the trajectory • Lifestyles (per capita travel time, housing surface, • Resources (e.g. surface of energy crops/ industrial biomass for energy) • Total costs, investment needs, energy prices A ‘reader’s guide’ for external scenarios (3/3) (iii) Policies / Conditions of success What are the stumbling blocks? What changes and what policies are needed? • • • • Price signals Innovation strategies Redistribution, transfers Skills, human capital Deep inside: what model? • Advantages of using a model: – Complex calculation (simulation or optimization) – Consistency (between prices and quantities, behaviors/technologies, energy/macro) • Drawbacks: – Huge efforts do not guarantee sound results – Black box => low confidence and strategic use Models Two frequent Flaws • Data: too often neglected – Ready-to-use database (e.g. GTAP for GE models) – Double check : ‘Check-in’ / ‘Check-out’ • Model: misuses ‘out of the definition domain’ – e.g. Macroeconometric models = short-run only An illustration of the necessary check-out of model results: future energy demand in France ‘Marker Scenarios’ from the national debate (DNTE) A look behind: sustained efficiency gains in the OECD during the last 40 years 450 400 350 300 PIB 250 Energie Electricité 200 Energie avec élasticité pré-73 150 Electricité avec élasticité pré-73 100 50 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Past efficiency gains in buildings Consommations observées de chauffage des bâtiments (kWh par m2 et par an) 250 200 150 100 France 50 Allemagne 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 source : Enerdata 2015 For the last 10 years: an apparent stability that hides opposite dynamics Demand evolution 00-10 (TWh) Total energy Power 0 +40 Transport +10 ~0 Industry -70 (-60 due to the economic crisis) -15 (-10 due to the economic crisis) Buildings +60 +55 (+40 due to specific uses) Total Further efficiency gains: Continuity or disruption? 60-73 73-10 73-85 85-97 97-07 Real GDP growth (per year) 5,7% 2,1% 2,4% 2,1% 2,4% Total energy demand growth rate (per year) 7,1% 0,4% -0,3% 1,2% 0,5% Electricity demand growth (per year) Elasticity of Energy demand over GDP Elasticity of Electricity Demand over GDP 7,2% 3,0% 4,4% 3,0% 1,8% 1,25 0,18 -0,14 0,54 0,22 1,26 1,46 1,87 1,42 0,77 Power demand: a broad interval of scenarios that is not ‘pure unertainty’ Low scenario: behavioral change, 100% technical potential, strong substitution toward biomass = negative GDP elasticity Median scenario: close to a « business-as-usual», with current trends going on (decreasing industrial activity, decrease use of electricity in heating, few innovation in new uses) = elasticity tends to 0,2 - 0,4 High scenario: where CO2 reduction comes more from substitutions to low CO2 electricity uses, alongwith ambitious EE gains= elasticity remains around its pre-crisis level, around 0,8 RTE Unsolved issues/ Further needs - Technical change with ‘realistic’ learning curves (asymptotic) - Inequalities, redistributive effects of energy policies - Intermittency - New electric uses in buildings - Debt constraints and investment - macroeconomic impact of energy prices - Global treatment of uncertainties - - - - -