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“Young Scientists Congress 2009” Organized by BAS and TWAS "Climate Change - a global pressing issue” A.K.M. Saiful Islam Associate Professor Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM) Bangladesh University of Engineer and Technology (BUET) Outlines What’s Climate Change & Global Warning? How Climate has Changed? Future Predictions Impact of Climate Change Who’s Responsible ? What needs to be done ? Mitigation Adaptation Global and National awareness building Green house Gas and Global warming Green House Gases Anthropogenic Emissions CO2 (72%) CH4 (18%) NO (9%) O3 (1%) Green house effect Green house gases act as a partial blanket for the thermal radiation from the surface which enables it to be substantially warmer than it would otherwise be, analogous to the effect of a greenhouse. Increasing trends of CO2 Human induced changes of green house gases Global temperature and Greenhouse gases Temperature variation past 1,000 years Trends of increase of Temperature Climate Change due to Global Warming Cracks in Ice bars Ice melting Images gathered from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program of NASA show the minimum Arctic sea ice concentration 1979 (left) and 2003 (right). 1979 2003 Trends of Precipitations Trends of Seal Surface temperature Temperature Data Analysis (1947-2007) Mean daily temperature of Bangladesh has increased with a rate of 1.03 0C per 100 years 27 (c) 26 25 y = 0.0103x + 25.428 2 R = 0.2996 24 2008 2003 1998 1993 1988 1983 1978 1973 1968 1963 1958 1953 1948 23 Future predictions of climate change Prediction of Global Warming Figure shows the distribution of warming during the late 21st century predicted by the HadCM3 climate model. The average warming predicted by this model is 3.0 °C. Prediction of Temperature increase Prediction of Sea level rise Arctic Sea Ice Prediction using community climate system model Arctic Sea Ice in 2000 Arctic Sea Ice in 2040 Predicted Change of Mean Temperature (0C) using A1B Scenarios Baseline = 2000 2050 2090 Change of Mean Rainfall (mm/d) using A1B Scenarios Baseline = 2000 2050 2090 Change of mean climatic variables of Bangladesh using A1B Scenarios Temperate (0C) Rainfall (mm/d) Impact of Climate Change Climate Change Impact for Bangladesh Increase of intensity and duration of natural disasters such as floods, Cyclones and Storm Surges. Increase of moisture stress (droughts) due to erratic precipitation Salinity intrusion due to Sea Level Rise Inundation due to sea level rise leading towards “Climate Refugees” Effect on health and livelihood of coastal people. Effect on Bio-diversity, Ecology & Sundarbans. Hampered Food Security & Social Security. What will happen to Artic Polar Bears ? Antarctic Penguins are watching… The Sundarbans ..Mangrove forest? Who is responsible for Climate Change ? Emission of Green house gases Emission of Co2 Bangladesh < 0.2 Million ton/yr Global Emission Per capita responsibility of Co2 What needs to be done? Facing Climate Change National Awareness building Mitigation Reduce Co2 emission, Use Green technology Use of Alternative Energy sources – Solar, Wind etc. Adaptation – Capacity Building through Training Innovative Research for knowledge generations Build Shelters, Rise Embankments & Polders, Roads, Houses Salinity tolerant crops, Forestation, alternative livelihood, improve warning system, migrations Global Awareness & Justice – Kyoto Protocol, COP15, COP16…. Raise our voice ! Thank you