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In Hot Water – Preparing for Climate Change Not to decide to win is to decide to fail! Greg Bourne, CEO WWF-Australia [email protected] 21st April 2008 Mitigation and Adaptation Adaptation and mitigation intrinsically linked. Based on the premise of stabilisation at ≤2˚C, optimism! A crisis period before a New Dynamic Equilibrium or Climate Runaway? (c) WWF-Canon / R. MALENKI (c) WWF-Canon / Nathalie RACHETER (c) WWF-Canon / Zeb HOGAN (c) WWF-Canon / Cat HOLLOWAY (c) WWF-Canon / Michel GUNTHER (c) WWF-Canon / Edward PARKER (c) WWF-Canon / Yifei ZHANG Not to decide to win ..is to decide to fail! Work for Global Climate Treaty to stay below a 2oC rise Keep on as Business As Usual (BAU) Deliberately IGNORE the climate challenge and try to “ACHIEVE ADVANTAGE” in a breakdown world New Sustainability Paradigm BAU defaults to societal, economic and environmental breakdown. A severe procrastination penalty Societal, economic and environmental breakdown -1 to 2% GDP loss But possibly a gain in world GDP But with Runaway Climate Change At least 20% GDP loss Not to decide to win ..is to decide to fail! World peaking year. (CO2-eq) Global Climate Treaty with targets to stay below 2oC rise Work for Global Climate Treaty to stay below a 2oC rise Keep on as Business As Usual (BAU) Deliberately IGNORE the climate challenge and try to “ACHIEVE ADVANTAGE” in a breakdown world BREAKDOWN defaults to BAU 2007 (470) Limited Climate Treaty Degrees above preindustrial era 2 69% Probability of precipitating runaway Global Warming** 25% ? 50% 2010 (510) X 2020 (560) Firm comprehensive reduction targets Weak uncomprehensive targets BREAKDOWN defaults to IGNORE Probability of exceeding 2 degrees C 2040 (650) 84% 92% ? 3 75% ? 97% 4 X 95% ? 98% 2065 (780) Runaway Global Warming Ensured ? 99% 2075 (950) ** GDB rough estimate of probability of “Runaway” Global Warming 5 6 100% Tipping elements in the earth’s climate system. Lenton et al 2008 www.pnas.org A Common Goal for Climate and Energy Policy • Meet projected global growth in demand • Avoid dangerous impacts of climate change • Use only socially and environmentally benign energy sources Six Solutions 1. Breaking the Link between Energy Services and Primary Energy Production 2. Stopping Forest Loss 3. Concurrent growth of Low-Emissions Technologies 4. Developing Flexible Fuels, Energy Storage and New Infrastructure 5. Displacing High-Carbon Coal with Low-Carbon Gas 6. Carbon Capture and Storage Conclusions • The report's conclusion is that the technologies and sustainable energy resources known or available today are sufficient to meet this challenge, and there is still sufficient time to build up and deploy them, but only if the necessary decisions are made in the next two years. • Yet it is clear that the economic policies and governmental interventions needed to propel this transition are not now in place, or even in prospect in most cases. This is a matter to which the world needs to give urgent attention. Three Imperatives 1. Urgency. Delays will make the transition to a low-carbon economy increasingly expensive and difficult, with much greater the risks of failure. The case for early, decisive action is overwhelming. 2. A global effort. Every country has a role to play, in response to the scale and the type of challenges arising in its territory. 3. Leadership. Action is needed by governments of the world to agree targets, to collaborate in effective strategies, and to influence and co-ordinate the investment of the many trillions of dollars which will be spent on energy developments in the coming decades in any event, so that future needs are met safely and sustainably. Carbon Budget Integrates to ~500GtC ~400GtC if we do not stop deforestation Climate Solution Wedges How Wedges displace high emission-energy WWF scenario final energy demand 204 0 205 0 We will overshoot Equity and Trajectories World CO2 only w/o LULUCF expressed as Carbon 9.00 8.00 7.00 GtC/y 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Year Ref: Ecofys South-North Dialogue Smooth Ecofys Smoothed Emissions (World and Regions) GtC/y CO2 only w/o LULUCF expressed as Carbon 9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Year Annex II NAII Annex I NIC RIDC Other DC LDC TOTAL AUS CO2 only w/o LULUCF expressed as Carbon 0.14 0.12 GtC/y 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.00 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Year Smooth Ref: Ecofys South-North Dialogue Ecofys Peak Australia’s net emissions at ≤600Mt Turn the Corner by 2010 850 Emissions Kyoto Period Mt CO2-e 2008-2012 +1.7% pa 750 108 per cent of 1990 level 650 +127% 700 MT Business as usual 50Mt deficit at 2012 equivalent to A$1 billion at A$20/tonne In 2020 625 575 550 “With measures” best estimate 2020 Investment Gate 450 Expected increase of 9 percent of 1990 level -20% 440 MT ca -2.5% pa 2050 Target Gate -30% 385 MT ca -3.5% pa 350 250 1990 1995 2000 2005 2020 Equity Targets Year Contraction and Convergence -20% Common but Differentiated Convergence -22 % Multistage -20% South-North Dialogue -35% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2040 220 MT 2050 -60% -80% 110 MT 850 If we wait to make real reductions at home, we run a large risk of having to finance a growing deficit in a rising market. Kyoto Period Emissions 2008-2012 Mt CO2-e 750 650 50 Mt deficit Kyoto target 108% 230 Mt deficit Better to make real reductions now, commit to targeted reductions and purchase/sell any deficit/surplus carbon credits. 550 Stimulate innovation 450 2020 Investment Gate -20% 440 MT ca -2.5% pa -30% 385 MT ca -3.5% pa 350 250 2005 2010 2015 2020 Year 2025 2030 If risk averse to economic damage target here If risk averse to environmental damage target here Not to decide to win ..is to decide to fail! Work for Global Climate Treaty to stay below a 2oC rise Keep on as Business As Usual (BAU) Deliberately IGNORE the climate challenge and try to “ACHIEVE ADVANTAGE” in a breakdown world New Sustainability Paradigm BAU defaults to societal, economic and environmental breakdown. A severe procrastination penalty Societal, economic and environmental breakdown -1 to 2% GDP loss But possibly a gain in world GDP But with Runaway Climate Change At least 20% GDP loss