Download Edgar Thielmann Europe, energy and energy security

European Energy Policy
Energy
Why energy policy matters for Europe
EU pays 2.5% of its annual GDP to import energy:
€ 270 bn for oil
€ 40 bn for gas
Several Member States rely on a single supplier for gas
EU = 20% of world energy use & largest global energy importer
But EU will increasingly compete for energy sources
Energy represents 80% of EU GHG emissions
Investment challenge around € 1 trillion by 2020
(mostly private sector)
Energy costs are an important and increasing part of
households' and businesses' expenses
Energy
Global demand is on the rise – effects on
energy security and climate change
Growth in primary energy demand (in Mtoe), IEA 2011
India and China accounting for 50% of growth: the EU will
increasingly compete for energy resources
Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2011
Energy
The security of supply challenge
% of missing gas supply
– 300 mcm/d for 14 days
6-20 January 2009
> 75 %
50 - 75 %
25 – 50 %
< 25%
0%
The January 2009 gas crisis showed the lack of physical interconnections
and the poor functioning of the EU internal market, with several Member
States facing severe energy shortages for several days.
Source: European Commission
Energy
The climate change challenge
Reduction of GHG emissions by 80-95% by 2050
100%
80%
100%
Power Sector
80%
Current policy
60%
Residential & Tertiary
60%
Efficient
pathway (GHG
emissions) in
“Low-carbon
economy
Roadmap”
(March, 2011):
Industry
40%
40%
-40% in 2030
-60% in 2040
Transport
20%
20%
Non CO2 Agriculture
Non CO2 Other Sectors
0%
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
0%
2050
5
Energy
The investment challenge
Total investment needs in the electricity and gas sector
between 2010-20: over € 1 trillion
Power generation: ~ € 500 bn
Transmission and distribution: ~ € 600 bn
Renewables: ~ € 310-370 bn
Distribution: ~ € 400 bn
Transmission: ~ € 200 bn
Investments of over € 1 trillion will be needed by 2020 to replace
obsolete power plants, to modernise and adapt infrastructure to
the latest technologies and to cater for demand for low carbon
energy.
Energy
Where are we today? (1)
Reduce greenhouse
gas levels by 20%
Current
trend to
2020
Increase share of
renewables to 20%
Reduce energy
consumption by 20%
Current
trend to
2020
-20%
Current
trend to
2020
20%
Energy
100%
-10%
Where are we today? (2)
Energy markets remain highly concentrated:
• need to encourage new entrants and independent suppliers
• need to encourage consumer switching
Only 3% of EU electricity traded across borders
Several regions still disconnected from the rest of the EU
Investment challenge is huge and uncertainty amongst
investors very high while the current investment cycle
should be the one which transforms Europe's energy system
Energy
1 - Achieving an energy-efficient Europe
.
.
.
Implementation of the Energy Efficiency
Directive
Energy efficiency obligation schemes
Exemplary role for public sector (buildings)
Smart metering and billing
Pursuing eco-design and energy labelling
measures
Reinforced financing schemes and
programmes
Energy
2 - Building a truly pan-European
integrated energy market
.
.
.
Communication on the Internal Market for Energy
(October)
» Take stock on the way to completing the IEM by 2014
and encourage MS to step up efforts
» In depth analysis of energy markets and country-by
country assessment
Communication on Renewable Energy Strategy (June)
» Accelerate development and look beyond 2020
» Consider market design and infrastructure
Progress towards adoption of Regulation and funding
framework for energy infrastructure post-2013 (CEF)
Energy
Infrastructure priorities for 2020-2030
Gas
Electricity
Electricity and Gas
Oil and Gas
Electricity
Baltic
Energy Market
Interconnection
Plan
Smart Grids for
in the EU
North Seas
Offshore
Grid
Electricity
& Gas
Central / South Eastern
Electricity Connections
North-South Gas Corridor
in Western Europe
South Western
Electricity Interconnections
Energy
North-South Gas
Interconnections
& Oil Supply
Southern
Gas Corridor
3 - Achieving the highest level of safety
and security
.
.
Proposals to improve the regulatory framework
for nuclear safety (late 2012/early 2013)
» Conclusion of stress test process
» Revision of Nuclear Safety Directive
» Proposal on nuclear liability and insurance
Interinstitutional discussions on proposal on
offshore oil and gas safety
Energy
4 - Extending European leadership in
energy technology and innovation
.
.
.
Launch of a Smart Cities and Communities
Initiative (Communication in July)
» Engage business & regional/local public authorities in
technological demonstration and testing programmes
Communication on Carbon Capture and Storage
(late 2012)
» Analyse main reasons for delays and encourage Member
»
States to step up efforts
Explore options for accelerating CCS demonstration
New Communication on Energy technologies &
market deployment of energy innovation
(1st quarter 2013)
Energy
.
5 - Strengthening the external dimension
Implementation of actions from the
Communication on international energy
relations and security of supply, including:
»
»
»
Continuation of progressive integration of Southern
and Eastern neighbours in EU energy market and
cooperation with key suppliers
Discussions about proposed information exchange
mechanism on agreements with third countries
further diversify sources and routes (e.g. Southern
Corridor )
Energy
The Energy Roadmap 2050 as a basis for
developing a long-term policy framework
Supported by scenario analyses
.
.
.
.
European Council
EU objective for 2050 – GHG
emissions down to 80-95%
below 1990 levels
Looks forward to elaboration
of a low-carbon 2050
strategy – a framework for
longer-term action in energy
and related sectors
.
Energy
Aim of the Roadmap
Give more certainty to
governments and
investors
Explore routes towards a
low-carbon energy
system by 2050 which
improve competitiveness
and security of supply
Basis for developing the
2030 policy framework
and concrete milestones
with MS, EP and
stakeholders
Energy savings throughout the system
are crucial
Primary energy consumption until (in Mtoe)
2000
1900
1800
Range for
current trends
scenarios
1700
1600
1500
1400
1300
Range regarding
decarbonisation
scenarios
1200
1100
1000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Energy
Electricity plays an increasing role
Share of electricity in various scenarios
(in % of final energy demand)
40%
Range
regarding
decarbonisatio
n scenarios
35%
Range for
current trends
scenarios
30%
25%
20%
15%
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Energy
2035
2040
2045
2050
Renewables move centre stage – but all
fuels can contribute in the long-run
Decarbonisation scenarios - fuel ranges (primary energy consumption in %)
2030
75%
50%
50%
25%
25%
0%
0%
RES
Gas
2050
75%
Nuclear Oil Solid fuels
2005
Energy
RES
Gas
Nuclear Oil Solid fuels
Decarbonisation is possible and can be less
costly than current policies in the long-run
Average energy system costs
(p.a. 2011 to 2050 as % of GDP)
20
Range of
15
 In all decarbonisation scenarios,
scenarios,
CPI most
expensive
10
total costs are similar to current
policies (CPI scenario)
 Capital expenditure increases
steadily over time, throughout the
system
Fuel costs drop in long-run
2005
5
Investment expenditure goes
into the EU economy rather than
to non-EU for energy imports
0
Source: European Commission |
Energy
The paths to take
– towards “no regrets” actions
Priorities emerging from Roadmap
 Need energy efficiency gains throughout
 Need to invest in more electricity interconnections and
storage
 Renewables – need to aim at least half of gross final
energy consumption in 2050, at least 60% in electricity
 Need modernised intelligent infrastructure, with active
role for consumers and demand-side flexibility
 Need an efficient internal market, with more electricity
and, at least in the transition, gas
Energy
Thank you for your attention!
Energy
Energy