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Global Climate Change: The Evidence, Challenges and Our Options Ellen Mosley-Thompson, Distinguished University Professor, Geography Director, Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center, The Ohio State University Ice Core Paleoclimate Research Group Lonnie Thompson Postdoctoral Researchers: Henry Brecher Emilie Beaudon Mary Davis Stacy Porter Paolo Gabrielli Roxana Sierra Don Kenny Graduate Student: Ping-Nan Lin Donaldi Permana Bruce Plateau,Victor Zagorodnov Crawford Point, Dasuopu, Antarctic Peninsula Greenland Himalayas Funding provided by: NSF: Paleoclimate and Polar Programs NASA: Earth Akron, Sciences (Glaciology) Akron Roundtable, Ohio, March 19, 2015 NOAA: Paleoclimatology Gary Comer Foundation Global Climate Change: The Evidence, Challenges and Our Options Ellen Mosley-Thompson, Distinguished University Professor, Geography Director, Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center, The Ohio State University Ice Core Paleoclimate Research Group Lonnie Thompson Henry Brecher Mary Davis Paolo Gabrielli Don Kenny Ping-Nan Lin Victor Zagorodnov Postdoctoral Researchers: Emilie Beaudon Stacy Porter Roxana Sierra Graduate Student: Donaldi Permana Funding provided by: NSF: Paleoclimate and Polar Programs NASA: Earth Sciences (Glaciology) NOAA: Paleoclimatology Gary Comer Foundation Key Points Earth’s climate is changing - the world is warming – that debate is over! Weather and climate are very different. Changes in the climate system are driven by both natural and anthropogenic factors. Global Climate Change (GCC) involves many changes - not just temperature. (precipitation, sea level, ocean acidification, ecosystems, glaciers are melting) Human activities that release carbon dioxide (CO2) & other Greenhouse Gases, as well as aerosols (particles), into Earth’s atmosphere are the dominant cause of warming of our planet since the 1950s. Recent scientific assessments highlight the role of human activities. The world is challenged by its growing need for energy – what are our options? How we choose to power our planet going forward and how rapidly we make the necessary changes will determine our collective future. Our Earth is warming! Environmental conditions are changing! Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index 2005, 2010, 2014 warmest years on record 0.95°C 1.70°F Year A.D. Relative to the 1951 – 1980 mean http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ Our Earth is warming! Environmental conditions are changing! Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index 1900 – 2014 Air Temperature Changes 2005, 2010, 2014 0.93 ºC warmest years on record 0.95°C 1.70°F Year A.D. Relative to the 1951 – 1980 mean http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ Climate and Weather are Quite Different! Climate is what you expect Weather is what you get Akron: 29.4 oF for Feb (1986-2015) avg Akron: 16.0 oF for Feb 2015 The dog walker is the climate The dog is the weather February 2015 – Earth’s second warmest February Land & Ocean temperature departures for February 2015 Base period: 1981 ‐ 2010 7 Quelccaya Ice Cap, Cap, Peru Peru Quelccaya Ice 1977 2002 Photo: Lonnie G Thompson Quelccaya Quelccaya Ice Ice Cap, Cap, Peru Peru 2002 Photo: Lonnie G Thompson Qori Kalis Glacier, Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru Photo: Lonnie G. Thompson Qori Kalis Glacier, Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru Photo: Lonnie G. Thompson 2010 2014 2012 2010 Source: NOAA and Scripps 1100 IPCC GHG Emission Scenarios for 2100 AD 800 900 700 CO2 remains in the atmosphere for decades to millennia 600 Dome C EPICA Dome C ice core extends back through eight glacial and interglacial stages (800,000 years) recording changes in the composition of Earth's atmosphere 500 Today 1100 IPCC GHG Emission Scenarios for 2100 AD 800 900 700 CO2 remains in the atmosphere for decades to millennia 600 500 Today The fraction of CO2 remaining in the air, after emission by fossil fuel burning, declines rapidly at first, but 1/3 remains in the air after a century and 1/5 after a millennium (Atmos. Chem. Phys. 7, 2287-2312, 2007). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Huber and Knutti, Nature Geoscience, 2012 So what actions will give us the Best Possible Scenario ……………………. 1) Put a price on carbon (tax or cap) 2) Use efficiency standards, incentives & restrictions on harmful practices 3) Fund research & development of new technologies - speed the transition 4) Prepare to adapt - anticipatory adaptation is cheapest (esp. for expensive infrastructure); international aid may be needed “It is cheaper to prepare than to repair” 5) Geoengineering for impacts not mitigated or adapted to (but proceed with caution) 5) Be prepared to adjust the response; review and amend the plan How the world chooses to supply the power it needs will determine in large measure Earth’s future climate. This is a global problem and will require global-scale solutions. Our options include: Mitigation (increased efficiencies and fuel switching) Adaptation (taking measures to reduce the adverse impacts) Suffering is possible if these approaches are insufficient Our greatest challenges of the 21st Century will be (1) learning how to get along with each other and (2) learning how to get along with our Planet. These two challenges deal with human behavior and are closely related! Earth For Global Climate Change --- Nature is the Time Keeper!