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Project Summary Bluie West The lines blur between climate change and reality. Bluie West makes them clear. An Action/Adventure Epic Film Series using Global Warming Psychology Solutions to Enhance Climate Change Awareness Bruce Melton PE 8103 Kirkham, Austin, Texas 78736 512 799-7998 [email protected] Climate Change Now Initiative, 501c3 www.ClimateDiscovery.org Bluie West Project Summary Contents Introduction Synopsis Background Global Warming Psychology Raison D’etre Film Project Concept Cast Selection Music Additional Films Appendices Appendix A: Cast Appendix B: Scientific Basis and References Appendix C: Melton’s Credentials 3 4 5 7 8 8 9 10 11 Bluie West Project Summary 3|Page Introduction This story takes place 20 years in the future. Its grand Orwellian twist is that the science and impacts are all happening today. The reason that climate things happening today can be portrayed as fiction happening in the future is that the perceived climate change debate, created by the $900 million a year climate change counter-movement (CCCM), has so crippled current climate science outreach that media reporting has been strongly compromised. (1, 2) A very significant proportion of factual current climate science and impacts happening now are virtually unknown outside of academia. The main mission of the Climate Change Now Initiative is to communicate these unknown current scientific findings to the public. The peer reviewed research findings tell this story far better than any other source available, but very few can or are willing to interpret the literature. A few climate scientists have written a few books that come close, but in general, all other sources are created by advocates and not scientists. This is the great disconnection we hear about in climate science that the CCCM effectively utilizes to discredit and create doubt where none should exist. Scientists are not public communicators. The disconnection is so extreme that the CCCM tell us the cost of solutions will break our economies when they will instead earn trillions in revenue and value. (3) At the same time the perceived debate has masked the reality of the solutions, it has created a media bias that under reports the actual impacts happening today and the extremeness of projections for the future. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has now defined climate pollution treatment sufficient to avoid dangerous climate change as including strong removal of carbon dioxide already in our atmosphere. In other words, emissions reductions alone are no longer adequate. (4) Despite the efforts of those that would rather we not believe the vast majority of climate scientists, awareness today has slowly progressed. A significant majority of us believe that climate change is happening and most of those believe impacts will be bad in the future. But almost universally, the public’s perception of current climate science and ongoing impacts is 20 years behind. (5) Bluie West gives us a mechanism to exploit this counter intuitive characteristic of the public’s understanding of climate science today. The new discipline of global warming psychology has outlined a path to create increased awareness through cinematic production and the use of believable story telling by authoritative figures. (6) Bluie West Project Summary 4|Page Very important to this concept is the understanding that the project does not showcase climate induced catastrophe. This type of outreach can backfire and actually increase skepticism. (7) This story is about a plausible societal revolution set in motion by climate change impacts caused by decades of governmental leadership almost entirely influenced by money and ignorance of science. The plausibility comes from the cultural revolution of the 1960s that was instigated or significantly enhanced by the unjust war in Vietnam. The authority of the film is provided by the biggest celebrities in the business, both musical and cinematic. Many play themselves, 20 years older, in primary and supporting roles. Others, mostly younger, play a large number of primary roles. A broad spectrum of actors and music genres in a very large cast, increases the penetration of the film, which increasing awareness even further. The celebrities also perform another unprecedented and extraordinary function. This project is nonprofit. The stars donate their time and resources for pre and post production. Profits go to either continuing the project until success is achieved in treating climate pollution and or to the installation of an affordable climate pollution treatment infrastructure. Academic work supporting the science and global warming psychology presented in this project is found in Appendix C, Scientific Basis and References. Synopsis Twenty years in the future our climate has changed. Deniers and delayers rule the world. Two years prior to the film, mega hurricane Gwyn struck New York City, killed tens of thousands and created a mega recession. Just after Gwyn, a documentary film crew (Bluie West) published an innovative science rockumentary that featured an obscure band (Delta) that played music about climate issues. The timing was perfect; the band went viral. Bluie West’s continued filmwork drove a societal revolution supporting Delta and their message. But then, mysterious fatal accidents occurred during tour performances and the tour was cancelled. The film begins after the tour was cancelled: Documentary work continues in Greenland, sponsored by a group of wealthy celebrities who want the tour to resume. Research happens deep in the ice sheet and as a blizzard rages an intern is lost and found. An icefjord ice jam releases in a life-changing, climate pollution induced cataclysm. (8) All but the project’s moral compass and leader (Hanna Jury, Bluie West Producer) are moved to agree to resume the tour. A hundred of the world’s biggest celebrities gather on the eroding Padre Island for an elaborate surprise beach party and convince Hanna to go on, supported by $3.5 billion from the newly formed Save Earth Insurers (SEI). (9) One million attend the return to the tour in Central Park. Gunman shooting fake guns on the floor cause mass panic with 71 fatalities. Sierra, one of fourteen young people (the kids) Bluie West Project Summary 5|Page comprising parts of Bluie, the band and crew, suffers a serious compound fracture of the leg when she is crushed filming in the audience when the panic occurs. The U.S. Congress bans Delta performances. Protests and violence like never before begin in the U.S. The kids use hacked face recognition software, ultra HD video and an illicit FBI database to identify a suspect (Thorogood) associated with a Nigerian energy conglomerate (Black Diamond). At the Vienna performance, Delta’s young sound tech Madison is shot while pursuing Thorogood. Fake gunman again attack on the floor. This time the crowd fights back and all are captured. Protests and violence go worldwide, massive occupations decimate major city infrastructures. Military control is limited for fear of extreme violence with the unprecedented crowds. The World and U.S. Councils of Mayors meet in emergency session. SEI deploys investigative teams in cooperation with Interpol and the suspects and Black Diamond are connected to Baltimore. The next event is a three day festival at Przystanek Woodstock in Poland drawing over 2 million. The kids discover a new suspect (Lovemoore), by streaming video to their software during the event. Leaf, and Emily, structural engineer for Delta and Camera two for Bluie, confront the massive Lovemoore in his food trailer (Kung Foods). Lovemoore presses a secret button, runs, and Leaf and Emily pursue. At the edge of the woods, Lovemoore breaks Leaf’s face with a sucker punch and escapes. Suddenly, a massive 150 dB sonic attack begins as loud as the military sound weapons. It is broadcasted on the phones of over two million, incapacitating everyone at the event with extreme pain. (10) Emily and Leaf somehow make it back to Kung Foods during the attack; find the transmitter, dump a large stockpot of water on it and it explodes, seriously injuring the two but stopping the attack. At a 500 media person press conference the next day, 100 of the world’s most cherished celebrities are in bleachers behind the leaders of Bluie, Delta and SEI who are answering questions. Word comes across social that the emergency meetings of the combined global mayors councils have convinced the U.S. Congress to enact emergency climate pollution law limiting emissions to Kyoto Era treaty levels from the early 1990s. The victory is won, it came at tremendous global costs, the climate pollution limits are very weak; but it’s finally a start after over 40 years. Background Our society has demonstrated that science knowledge cannot influence climate policy in time frames that matter. Because of this failure, impacts are up to 100 years ahead of projections. (11) This film project uses global warming psychology to create outreach that has the distinct possibility of not only enhancing climate science awareness, but ending the climate pollution challenge once and for all. Bluie West Project Summary 6|Page The Climate Change Now Initiative (501c3) has been interpreting academic climate science literature, observing documented changes happening in the field, and performing outreach between academia and the public since 2004. Our mission is to act as a knowledge liaison to communicate climate science to the public in plain English. Our productions includes the written word, experimental documentaries and music. We have created outreach that includes: about 400 plain-English reports on the latest scientific findings, and a book about 42 of these recent findings; an experimental music documentary about Greenland melt and sea level rise on Padre Island, and another about the great North American pine beetle attack; numerous short films; 60 popular press articles, and 36 songs. The Initiative’s web knowledge resource (http://www.climatediscovery.org) focuses on the latest climate discoveries and global warming psychology. All of the science in the world will not amount to much unless it is presented in a manner that can make a difference. Today’s perceived debate has been highly orchestrated and funded in truly unbelievable amounts by the climate change counter-movement. To overcome the propaganda, misinformation and scientific credibility destruction, cutting edge psychology is required. You do not need to be told of the importance of climate change in our society today, but the magnitude of this importance may surprise you. Let me give you a very recent, very local example of what is at stake and then lay out the psychology and the global warming psychology concept that has driven this story design. You know we just experienced a lot of unprecedented flooding in the Austin region. I am a professional engineer and hydrologist and I took the time to evaluate some primary engineering modeling to illustrate how much more extreme rainfall events could become on a warmer planet. National Weather Service Technical Paper 40, produced in 1962, identifies the frequency and intensity or rainfall events across the U.S. You surely have heard of the 100-year storm. This document defines the 100, as well as the 50-year storm, the 25, 10, 5, 2, 1 and six month storms. It also describes the 500-year storm and something called the PMP or Possible Maximum Precipitation event (PMP). This is exactly as it sounds. The PMP is the most rain that could physically fall, all things being maximized: temperature, humidity and atmospheric dynamics. (12) TP40 tells us that the 6-hour, 100-year storm for Austin is seven inches, the 6-hour 500-year storm is nine inches and the 6-hour PMP is 31 inches. This is not to say that we will see 31 inches of rain in six hours, but it does relate the 40 percent increase in extreme storms Austin has seen with 1 degree Fahrenheit of warming relative to what we could expect with the IPCC 2013 suggested nine degree Fahrenheit increase in Austin by 2100. (13) The headroom our climate has to become even more extreme is large. Heat extremes in Texas have already increased 10 to 100 times in the last 30 years. (14) In the U.S. southeast, droughts and floods have doubled in the last 30 years. (15) Bluie West Project Summary 7|Page Global Warming Psychology Global warming psychology logic tells us that if we as a society actually understood the risks, climate pollution mitigation would have happened a long time ago. If we can convince enough people of the importance and magnitude of climate pollution, change will happen. But the climate change counter-movement, sponsored by the fossil fuel industrial complex (FFIX), has systematically undermined these prospects. Research from Drexel and Stanford describes the $900 million a year climate change countermovement; “A deliberate and organized effort to misdirect the public discussion and distort the public’s understanding of climate change.” The paper concludes; “To accomplish [their] goal in the face of massive scientific evidence of anthropogenic climate change has meant the development of an active campaign to manipulate and mislead the public over the nature of climate science and the threat posed by climate change.” (see reference 6) The burgeoning new field of global warming psychology tells us that the most effective way to change public opinion is through personal impacts, storytelling, and authority figures. We cannot afford to wait for personal impacts to create the needed awareness so we must turn to storytelling and authority figures. The stories can be about anything as long as there is some association with climate related issues. Climate impact stories are good, local climate impact stories are better. Stories of personal relationships and challenges, set in the world of the climate change issues, may be the best because they combine known emotional reactions within in a framework (of climate change). This relationship reinforces learning. Credibility is important. Believability is a must. Credibility can be communicated through authority figures much more efficiently than simply through citation. Believability is more difficult with the perceived debate and that is why the Raison D’etre and Film Concept presented below are so important. Authority Figures: The one group of individuals with vast authority in our society today; that has the proven motivation to act on environmental and social issues; that can produce massive creative projects on a global scale; and has the resources to pursue these behaviors, is our entertainment celebrities. Bluie West Project Summary 8|Page Raison D’etre Current outreach has failed to make reasonable or meaningful changes to climate pollution policy on Earth regardless of a generation of effort. The FFIX is so broad and well funded, their authority figures so trusted: radically new techniques must be tried. It is already too late to save Earth as we know it. Vast and irreversible impacts are already underway. But we can prevent impacts far more extreme if we act in time frames that matter. If we can’t get them (the public) to understand the existence or the significance of critical climate pollution impacts already happening today, but they are willing to believe that climate change will be bad in the future, let’s create innovative outreach (film and music) that shows today’s impacts in the future. A real and honest depiction of future climate change is as yet unknown in our world. The convoluted act presenting fact as fiction (unknown to the viewer), provides a plausible depiction of what is known to be true in the future but we as a people have yet been able to grasp. That these depictions are true today is relatively minor. The first step is to provide a mental picture of the unknown. Deeper thought can follow. The Film Project Concept This film project will be a defining cinematic experience of our time. The sheer number of leading celebrities participating will ensure this outcome. The story is not really important and can be changed as needed—the resources of the large sponsoring community will ensure the story alone is worthy of a defining cinematic experience. The story embodies a future global social phenomenon, the ethical and moral challenges that arise from complications to the central theme, as well as the personal interactions, personal and group challenges, and love found in any story. A world impacting conflict triggers a global emotional and social revolution. It is born out of the ability of music to communicate; not only the pureness and good of music, but the communication of social, political, moral, and ethical issues. It has happened before; the Vietnam War. The principals of global warming psychology will be used to frame the project. Trusted authority figures tell the story in an unprecedented way. The science is believable because fact is treated as future fiction. The story has a broad base of support from a wide and voluminous selection of celebrities. It is Bluie West Project Summary 9|Page nonprofit, there is no monetary motivation. The celebrities not only perform gratis, they fund initial pre and post production. The audience will be led to believe the science is fiction, or that it is model projections of the future. Even though the science is happening now, virtually nobody knows. The more believable nature of these things happening in the future will give the story credibility. Actual events, times and places will instill plausibility to the story even if fact is portrayed as fiction. The thing we are after is genuineness. It’s the main tenet of the climate change counter-movement. If it is not believable, how can it be real? The climate change counter-movement uses the unbelievableness of man-caused climate change to discredit climate science. It doesn’t have to be fact to be believable. By setting these unbelievable—but factual—impacts that are happening today in a future setting, they become believable. As time moves on, viewers (and reviewers) will catch on, but it will likely be an underground type of realization. There will be media coverage of this strange fiction that is really fact happening now, but there is no scandal in portraying the truth as fiction and press will be minor. But the underground realization that it is fact being portrayed as fiction does give the story more weight. As the story progresses into film after film, this realization grows. The project is nonprofit and it is widely advertised as such. A for-profit project of this sort is ethically inappropriate. A nonprofit project has more authority with philanthropic efforts. In addition, the put back that comes from nonprofit issue work lends even more authority to the importance and immediacy of uncontrolled climate pollution—the greatest issue of our time. Vendors and working people all get paid, but like the tour in the film, this is a nonprofit effort. Our fabulous celebrity heroes play themselves as the philanthropists they are; capable of funding an unprecedented work such as this. Ticket prices will be low, mirroring the low concert ticket price of the story and allowing more to participate than would have otherwise. Profits will continue production of additional films until climate pollution control success is achieved, and or profits will be invested in a climate pollution treatment infrastructure (costs are much less expensive than are perceived by the public and even much less than are perceived by almost all environmental advocates. See Reference 3.) The Cast The huge number of celebrities playing themselves or characters would be ridiculous if this was an ordinary film project, but this is no ordinary project. The vast array of trusted celebrities taking part in such an effort will broaden the reach of the audience, increasing awareness enhancement. The specific actors and musicians who portray themselves and primary and secondary roles are not in of themselves important. Their selection process is important though and it depends on: their proven Bluie West Project Summary 10 | P a g e track record of supporting environmental conservation and socially philanthropic efforts, their specific effort as and the magnitude of those efforts relative to climate change, their motivation to participate, and the size and scope of their individual audience. i.e. Wiley Nelson will have a greater audience than The Red Hot Chile Peppers. Those chosen to play roles have been selected through filtering for appropriate philanthropy and the authors limited knowledge of casting. A detailed list of celebrities filtered for appropriate philanthropic work is provided in Appendix B. The Music “Music is a moral law.” - Plato “Where words fail, music speaks.” - Hans Christian Andersen “One good thing about music, when it hits you, you feel no pain.” - Bob Marley “Music expresses that which cannot be said and on which it is impossible to be silent.” - Victor Hugo “Music can change the world because it can change people.” - Bono “Music doesn't lie. If there is something to be changed in this world, then it can only happen through music.” - Jimi Hendrix “Music is a higher revelation than all wisdom and philosophy.” - Ludwig van Beethoven “Music is the shorthand of emotion.” - Leo Tolstoy “Music is the universal language of mankind.” - Henry Wadsworth Longfellow “This machine kills fascists.” - Woody Guthrie The music presented in this script comes from the band Climate Change, fronted by Bruce Melton. Melton, like the rest of the members of the band, has been an amateur musician for forty years or thereabouts. They have played together since 2001 and began playing climate issue songs, mostly written by Melton, in 2007. Their climate songs are simply blues, rock, folk and jazz with climate issue lyrics. It was in 2007, Melton learned he was an engineer singer-songwriter while filming on the Greenland Ice sheet. The band has created over three dozen original song, scores the Initiative’s films, and plays out for special events. After playing together for thirteen years they are a good band, which is fairly common in Austin. Like the choice of actors and musicians, the songs, their lyrics and melodies are not really important except in that they are well executed and include a broad range of genres. It is the presentation of the songs as a part of an entertainment phenomenon that will create demand for the music, and propagate the additional benefits that a widely appreciated score add to a film story that also enhance outreach. The band likes to call them data rich songs and they are significantly unique in the music industry. Whatever they are called, however they are written and whoever performs them, they put climate stuff in the minds of listeners. If this stuff is delivered with enough authority, it has weight. Musical guests featured in the project will also be asked to write material specifically for this project. Bluie West Project Summary 11 | P a g e Additional Films in the Series Additional films in the series will draw from a vast array of unknown climate science and impacts happening now. Every year the droughts, fires and floods get more extreme. Ninety-two million acres of forest have been decimated in the North American Rockies by a native pine beetle gone berserk because of warming. Huge swaths of the subarctic and arctic have been devastated by permafrost melt leaving a chaotic and pockmarked earth surface where the ice has melted and run away or evaporated. Methane gas expulsions from the ocean floor in Arctic seas north of Siberia are greater than all of the rest of the world’s oceans combined. The Amazon has already shifted from a carbon sink to a carbon source. Huge underice sea channels funnel water into the depths of the Greenland ice sheet. Half-mile high tsunamis were created by sea level rise induced massive volcanic island mega submarine landslides when Earth was about the same temperature as today, 120,000 years ago. The FFIX and their money always win it seems. It only takes a few months for things to return to business as usual. In successive films, a triggering event sets the revolution afire once more, and the band returns to the tour with their boundless array of celebrity sponsors and friends. The James Bond-esque attacks resume, the kids of Bluie and Delta show up the professional investigators. Unbelievable fact is portrayed as fiction. The perps are blown up in fiery explosions. An Election introduces a new crop of politicians with their campaign promises. Celebrities die for the cause. Until the climate pollution challenge is solved in real life, the film series can, and must go on. Appendix A Bluie West Cast Note: Almost all of the roles could be played by whoever the casting professionals think appropriate. This reference was used to coordinate the large number of roles in writing the script and most importantly, to keep track of the celebrities environmental records. It is imperative that the philanthropists with proven records be used in this project. SEI (Save Earth Insurers) Alec Baldwinn -- Alec Baldwinn Susan Sarandon -- Susan Sarandon Leonardo DiCaprio -- Leonardo DiCaprio Kristin Wiig -- Kristin Wiig Pharrel Williams – Pharrel Williams Plus lots of other music and film stars that show up throughout the film: George Clooney, Pierce Brosnan Security Director: (Elias “Tank” Mueller) played by Arnold Schwarzenegger, is a well-seasoned, rock solid security expert with a persistent German accent. Medical Director: (Addison Montgomery) Kate Walsh plays here television drama series role as an independently wealthy doctor of medicine. Film Crew Bluie West 1 - Producer (Hanna Jury) Julia Roberts is a pretty, 40-something, strong, focused and motherly beacon of sincerity, with a priceless smile and a lifetime of dedication to climate change outreach. - Director (Zachary Dean) tall, blond, lean and geeky, original lead singer and songwriter for the band with a PhD in global warming psychologist - Narrator (Morgan Freeman) as Morgan Freeman - Camera 1 (Jacob Jury) – Ed Norton is Hanna’s older brother, an NGO CEO turned environmental crusader. Bluie West Cast references – Philanthropy Page |2 - Camera 2 (Emily Stands Tall) Emma Stone plays a quiet, young Native American dedicated to environmental filmwork. - Sound (Madison Clapton) Jennifer Lawrence, pretty resolute and easily amused, an award winning indie filmmaker in high school. - Lighting (Zeek Donovan) Malcolm Ford is young, beach blond, tan, and energetic and loyal in every way - Grip 1 (Sierra Nevada) Naomi Watts brilliant youngest/Dylan - Grip 1 (Dylan Boseman) dependable youngest/Sierra Electrical (Samantha Tull) Film Crew Bluie West 2 - Director (Darla Petrova) Daryl Hanna, a veteran of the film industry, came on with Bluie West shortly after the band went global, specializes in music videos and films for young adults. - Camera 1 - Camera 2 (Dakota De Beauvoir) Dakota Johnson plays another of Darla’s young film maker prodigies, shy and very experienced for her age. - Sound (Cherokee Morgan) Bindi Irwin plays this part as the child of long-time studio technicians in the music industry that took up the art at an early age. - Lighting and Electrical (Nicholas (Nic) Broeker) is actually the grandson of one of the world's first climate scientists specializing in ocean currents who was an old friend of Zach and Hanna's - Grip (Ryan Petrova) is Darla’s son, following in his mother’s path. - Grip (Sarah Brown) Jennette McCurdy an award winning young filmmaker from austin The Band - Lead Singer (Billy Bonham) Adam Levine, a 30 something marine biologist and foraminifera specialist with a love for music, performance and a deep understanding of global warming psychology from years of academic collaboration with Mac -Lead Guitar and backup vocals (Jimmy Flannery) Jimmy Fallon could be the third host on Wayne’s World -Rhythm Guitar and vocals (Verhonica Dance) Rihanna, a curious, active and helpful band member and former environmental Bluie West Cast references – Philanthropy Page |3 activist. -Base (Jose Cortez) Jose Menendez, a joker, working on PhD in tempestology -Keys (Makayla Kalani) plays keys and is studying for her masters focusing on mega submarine landslides. -Drums (Matt Martin) Ken Adams is the band’s drummer, an overly quiet student of philosophy, helped Zach write songs about climate change when he was a baby. -Band Manager: (Woody Harrelson) Woody Harrelson -Press: (Maria Ramirez) Evangeline Lilly a savy 30 something professional marketer who is a bit out of her league in the wilderness -Engineer: (Leaf Erickson) Suma Cum Laude structural engineer Penn State, recently graduated and certified. -Megascreen Graphics: (Valorie Bernoulie) a wheat raising farm girl from Kansas. -Megascreen Graphics: (Benny Donati) a tough inner city kid from Chicago -Rigger 1 (Noah) -Rigger 2 Supporting roles: -Labor crew leader, Santiago Garcia, a 50 something local crew leader that speaks fair English -Labor crew; four locals that speak no English. -Donna Drew, old Jury family friend in Washington DC. Friends -News anchor: (Brian Williams), Brian Williams -Computer Hacker, Elli O’Donnell (Elizabeth Olsen), geeky thick glasses, vintage clothes, went to high school with Madison. -Computer Hacker, Yusuf Kaya, twenty something, sly, strong and handsome Turk, Elli’s friend. - Ice sheet specialist (cryologist) MAC MACMURTRY, University of Texas, Matthew McConaughey is an academic adventurer with a large serious side. Worked with Zach when he was writing his dissertation and have been close since, collaborating occasionally. -Ice dynamics specialist of the ORA VANDERPOOL is a quiet proficient principal investigator of the moulin work in the film. Bluie West Cast references – Philanthropy Page |4 -Atmospheric chemist and cloud modeler ROGER DEAN is a rather large happy looking guy with a sense of humor who you would never believe has two PhDs. -Paleochemist (AUGUST AUGUSTINE), Mark Ruffalo, calm academic type, grew up with Hanna and Zach -Ice Sheet Dynamics, British Antarctic Survey, (Ora Vanderpool) Salma Hayek -Director of the Arctic Council (Charles ) Theo Suluk -Beach dynamics specialist (Ann Pruitt, Texas A&M Corpus Christi,) Reese Witherspoon -PhD Candidate in marine ice shelf dynamics (Samantha Everdeen) played by Scarlet Johansen from Ohio State. -PhD recent grad, New York City College, autonomous underwater sensing (Raj Gupta) Dev Patel plays a poor but brilliant young man from Gandhi Nagar, Gujarat, India, had to stow away on a container ship to reach America where he had been accepted to Yale New York City College to study polar ice. -Global Warming Psychology, Yale, (Brenner Anderson) Robert Redford Music Friends: -Willie Nelson: (Willie Nelson) -Pharrell Williams Celebrities Lineups: Montage 1: Leonardo Dicaprio, Cate Blanchet, Madona, Avril Levine, Ian Somerheld, Jack Johnson, Jason Mraz, Malin Akerman, Hugh Jackman and Gwyneth Paltro. Brad Pitt, Dave Mathews, Pierce Brosnan. Montage 2: Adrian Grenier, Natalie Portman, Salma Hayek, Cameron Diaz, Penelope Cruz, Orlando Bloom, Jake Gyllenhaal, Zooey Deschanel, Depak Chopra, Heidi Klume, Josh Hatnett, Kristen Bell Central Park Bands: Pharrell Williams, Jay Z, Snoop Dogg, Will.i.am and Linkin Park open at noon and play for three hours. Bluie West Cast references – Philanthropy Page |5 Wilco, the Black Keys and Foo Fighters play for an hour and half each. The tour continues with its tradition of staging leading local talent at the front of the stage between band changes. Woodstock lineup: Foo Fighters, Jay Z, Snoop Dogg, Linkin Park, U2, Lady Gaga, My Morning Jacket, Madonna, Avril Levine, Sting, Tim McGraw, Jason Mraz, Usher, Fallout Boys, Radiohead, Drake, Phish, the Roots, Guster, Barenaked Ladies, Dave Mathews Band, Jack Johnson, KT Tunstall Miscellaneous Philanthropic References for Character Selection: Live Earth September 2015: Pharrell Willimas and Al Gore: "Live Earth" producer Kevin Wall team up for 'Live Earth' concerts for climate change. Snoop Dogg, Rihanna, Metallica, Genesis and Bon Jovi. http://liveearth.org/event Eminem, Connect 4 Climate (C4C) Video http://www.connect4climate.org/blog/times-square Young celebrities with an climate change record: Hayden Panettiere Amanda Bynes Hilary Duff Zac Efron Adrian Greniere 1976 Josh Harnett 1978 Kristen Bell 1980 Mary-Kate Olsen 1987 Sierra Club Letter http://action.sierraclub.org/site/DocServer/Sign_On_Letter_Final .pdf?docID=12281 Bluie West Cast references – Philanthropy Page |6 Adam Levine Alec Baldwin Alicia Silverstone Bonnie Raitt Darren Aronofsky Edward Norton Edward James Olmos Elle Macpherson 50 Evangeline Lilly 35 Ian Somerhalder 35 Jack Johnson 35 Jason Mraz 36 Julia Louis-Dreyfus Incubus Linkin Park Malin Akerman 34 Michael Franti Morgan Freeman My Morning Jacket Ozomatli Phillipe Cousteau Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. Russell Simmons Susan Sarandon Tom Steyer Woody Harrelson Yoko Ono Add: Artists Against Fracking http://artistsagainstfracking.com/artists/ Abena Koomson Bethany Yarrow Adam Greene Bill Frisell Alec Baldwin Bill Migliore Amanda Palmer Black Keys Amy Ryan Black Twig Pickers Amy Sohn Bon Iver Animal Liberation Bonnie Raitt Orchestra Brad Mehldau Anne Hathaway 1999 Brazilian Girls Carrie Fisher Anthony Ed Charlotte Kemp Jessica Alba Muhl Beast Patrol Chris Maxwell Beastie Boys Cibo Matto Cindy Sherman Beck Conor Oburst Ben Perowsky Corn Mo Ben Tyree Dan Fogler Darren Aronofsky 46 Daryl Hanna David Byrne David Crosby David Fiuczynski David Geffen David Lang David Sitek Deborah Eisenberg Deepak Chopra Deerhoof Devendra Banhart Donald Fagen Dub Trio Dustin Yellin Bluie West Cast references – Philanthropy Elephant Revival Eric “Roscoe” Ambel Flea Flobots FonLin Nyeu Fred Armisen G Tom Mac Gene Ween George Saunders Glen Hansard Gotham Chopra Graham Nash Greg Bissonette Greg Rolie Greta Seacat Gwyneth Paltrow Hahn Rowe Harper Simon Hugh Jackman Indigo Girls Ingrid Sischy Irina Lazareanu Jackson Browne Jake Hoffman Jamie Saft Janet Feder Jay Dee Daugherty Jeff Koons Jenny Scheinman Jesse Harris Jimmy Fallon Joe Walsh Joel Hamilton Joel Rafael John Cameron Mitchell John Zorn Johnny Irion Jonathan Marc Sherman Joseph GordonLevitt Josh Fox Judy Kuhn Julian Lage Julian Lennon Julianne Moore Justin Bond Karen Elson Katelan Foisy Kathleen Hanna Keith Secola Kim Gordon Kronos Quartet Kyoko Ono Cox Lady Gaga Lee Ranaldo Lenny Kaye Liv Tyler Lowell Boyers Malcolm Ford Marina Abramovic Mario Batali Mark Rivera Mark Ronson Mark Ruffalo Martha Colburn Martha Stewart Martha Wainwright Medeski, Martin and Wood Meredith Monk MGMT Michael Pollan Mike Watt Monica Heidimann My Morning Jacket Nadia Dajani Nancy Shevell + Paul McCartney Natalie Merchant Nels Cline Nico Muhly Nicole Bonelli Noah Emmerich Patti Smith Group Peter Coyote Polyphonic Spree Questlove Ralph Gibson Richard Gere Richard Page Ringo Starr Roberta Flack Roberto De Niro Ron Delsner Rosario Dawson Rubblebucket Rufus Cappadocia Rufus Wainwright Page |7 Ryan Sawyer Ryuichi Sakamoto Salman Rushdie Sandra Brant Sara Lee Guthrie Scissor Sisters Scott Amendola Scott Harding Sea Wolf Sean Ono Lennon Sim Redmond Band St. Vincent Stephanie & Warren Haynes Steve Cardenas Steve Lukather Steve Shelley Steven Tyler Stuwart Hurwood Susan Sarandon Sxip Shirey Talia Lugacy The B-52′s The Flaming Lips The Present The Strokes Thomas Bartlett Three As Four Thurston Moore Tim Robbins Todd Reynolds Todd Rundgren Tom Noonan Tom Waits Tommy Hawk Wilson III Tony Shanahan Trevor Wilson Tune-Yards Uma Thurman Vernon Reid Vincent Gallo Wallace Shawn White Out Wilco Will Bernard Yo La Tengo Yoko Ono Zooey Deschaneltists Global Warming Charity and Foundation Supporters https://www.looktothestars.org/charity/stop-global-warming Al Gore Arnold Schwarzenegger Bonnie Raitt Christie Brinkley Hillary Clinton Incubus Jeffrey Sachs Jon Bon Jovi Julia Louis Dreyfus Leonardo DiCaprio Sheryl Crow Steve Nash Terra Naomi Tony Hawk Walter Cronkite AllAmericanspeakers.com http://www.allamericanspeakers.com/Green_Celebrities_&_Green_Speakers.php Casey Affleck Jackie Chan Blythe Danner Fergie Christina Aguilera Good Charlotte Ted Danson Mike Ferrell Margaret Atwood Chevy Chase Green Day Will Ferell Corinne Bailey Rae Don Cheadle Rosario Dawson Foo Fighters Alec Baldwin Soweto Gospel Choir Robert DeNiro Colin Firth Tyra Banks Eric Clapton Emily Deschanel Calista Flockhart Jimmy Barnes Kelly Clarkson Danny DeVito arrison Ford Ed Begley, Jr. George Clooney Cameron Diaz Bill Gates Cate Blanchett Coldplay Leonardo DiCaprio Richard Gere Orlando Bloom Monique Coleman Snoop Dogg Ricky Gervais Jon Bon Jovi Toni Collette Minnie Driver Balthazar Getty Bono Chris Cornell David Duchovny Jane Goodall Ian Botham Kevin Costner Hilary Duff Kelsey Grammer Beastie Boys Simon Cowell Kirsten Dunst Adrian Grenier Richard Branson Peter Coyote Eagles Christopher Guest Beau Bridges Daniel Craig The Edge Jake Gyllenhaal Christie Brinkley James Cromwell Tracey Emin Paul Haggis Pierce Brosnan Sheryl Crow Melissa Etheridge Brad Hall Gisele Bundchen Penelope Cruz Morgan Fairchild Tom Hanks Gerard Butler Tim Curran Perry Farrell Daryl Hannah Bluie West Cast references – Philanthropy Page |9 Woody Harrelson Julia Louis Dreyfus Ozzy Osbourne Danny Seo Josh Hartnett Chad Lowe Catherine Oxenberg Shakira Anne Hathaway Rob Lowe Suchin Pak Harry Shearer Tony Hawk Isabel Lucas Gwyneth Paltrow Martin Sheen Goldie Hawn Ludacris Hayden Panettiere Jamie-Lynn Sigler Salma Hayek Kyle Maclachlan Linkin Park Alicia Silverstone Don Henley Madonna Tatjana Patitz Henry Simmons Natasha Henstridge Natalie Maines Snow Patrol Scissor Sisters Damien Hirst Wendie Malick Rhea Pearlman Kelly Slater Peter Horton Chris Martin Sean Penn Mary Steenbergen Crowded House Sal Masekela Red Hot Chili Peppers Ben Stiller Incubus Debbie Mattenopoulos Joaquin Phoenix Sting Enrique Iglesias Dave Matthews Pink Michael Stipe Bindi Irwin John Mayer Brad Pitt Joss Stone Terri Irwin Melanie C The Police Barbra Streisand Joshua Jackson Paul McCartney Natalie Portman Eliska Sursova Pearl Jam Michael McKean Kelly Preston Amber Tamblyn Wyclef Jean Sarah McLachlan Emily Procter Spinal Tap Billy Joel John Mellencamp Smashing Pumpkins Justin Timberlake Elton John Katie Melua Zachary Quinto Kostya Tszyu Jack Johnson Metallica Bonnie Raitt Chris Tucker Angelina Jolie Alyssa Milano Guilana Rancic U2 Norah Jones Sienna Miller Rachael Ray Lars Ulrich Jon Bon Jovi Yao Ming Razorlight Steve Vai Jay-Z Alanis Morissette Robert Redford Casper Van Dien Jane Kaczmarek Kathryn Morris Rob Reiner Eddie Vedder Kasabian Demi Moore Cliff Richard The Veronicas Alicia Keys Esai Morales Rihanna Kanye West Angelique Kidjo Viggo Mortensen Tim Robbins Bradley Whitford Nicole Kidman Terra Naomi Julia Roberts Robin Williams Chris Knights Niecy Nash Tony Robinson John Williamson Johnny Knoxville Steve Nash Chris Rock Owen Wilson Lenny Kravitz Willie Nelson Meg Ryan Michelle Wright Sharon Lawrence Edward Norton Jeffrey Sachs Neil Young Avril Lavigne Nunatak Susan Sarandon Yusuf Norman Lear Emily O'Brien Joe Satriani Constance Zimmer Tommy Lee Oprah Arnold Schwarzenegger John Legend Ana Ortiz Amy Sedaris Jay Leno Beth Orton Kyra Sedgwick Bluie West Cast references – Philanthropy P a g e | 10 List of bands that supported the global Live Earth Climate Change concerts in 2007 Alicia Keys, Bon Jovi, Dave Matthews Band, Fall Out Boy, John Mayer, KT Tunstall, Kanye West, Kelly Clarkson, Ludacris, Melissa Etheridge, Roger Waters, Smashing Pumpkins, The Police, Beastie Boys, Black Eyed Peas, Bloc Party, Corinne Bailey Rae, Damien Rice, David Gray, Duran Duran, Foo Fighters, Genesis, James Blunt, John Legend, Kasabian, Keane, Madonna, Lots more at the link below: https://www.looktothestars.org/charity/live-earth Appendix B Bluie West: Scientific Basis and References The references below were accumulated along with thousands of other academic and institutional works as the fundamental science reference database for ClimateDiscovery.org, the Climate Change Now Initiative Knowledge Base. References 1 through 15 are from the Project Summary. Below those are additional references for the script. 1) Climate Change Counter-Movement (sponsored by the Fossil Fuel Industrial Complex – FFIX)… (Drexel and Stanford) Seven billion funding from 2003 to 2010, $900 million a year in climate change counter-movement funding. Fear of extinction has created a twenty year-long campaign by the wealthiest vested interests in the world. This campaign seeks to delay or even stop urgent measures needed to control climate pollution. A U.S. National Research Council Report from 2012 says there is a “A deliberate and organized effort to misdirect the public discussion and distort the public’s understanding of climate change.” Brulle 2013 identifies the start of the movement in 1989, just after the formation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This latest research has looked at what is now being called the Counter Climate ChangeMovement (CCCM) and just exactly how much money these CCCM entities are pouring into the “movement.” This research tells us that: “A well organized CCCM … played a major role in confounding public understanding of climate science, but also successfully delayed meaningful government policy actions to address the issue.” For 91 of 118 organizations identified Brulle found $900 million a year in “identified” funding. Brulle also tells us; “This counter-movement involves a large number of organizations, including conservative think tanks, advocacy groups, trade associations and conservative foundations, with strong links to sympathetic media outlets and conservative politicians.” Brulle concludes; “To accomplish this goal in the face of massive scientific evidence of anthropogenic climate change has meant the development of an active campaign to manipulate and mislead the public over the nature of climate science and the threat posed by climate change.” 2) Brulle, Institutionalizing delay: foundation funding and the creation of U.S. climate change counter-movement organizations, Climatic Change, December 21, 2013. http://www.drexel.edu/~/media/Files/now/pdfs/Institutionalizing%20Delay%20%20Climatic%20Change.ashx National Research Council, Climate and social stress; implications for security analysis. National Academy of Sciences, Washington, 2012 http://www.northeastern.edu/policyschool/wp-content/uploads/Steinbruner-et-al.2012-Security-Reading.pdf The “Fairness Bias” has helped the CCCM diminish the effectiveness of climate science outreach, reduce scientific credibility and increase confusion… Ensuring fairness and balance is what the journalistic creed is about. Ensuring fairness in the broadcast media was codified into law in 1949 with the Fairness Doctrine (and repealed by Reagan in 1987). Journalists and media personalities only want to be fair and present both sides of a story and the Fairness Doctrine was adopted to ensure that both sides of an issue are presented equally. This concept works great with belief-based issues. When belief-based issues are confused with science reporting, opportunity for bias arises. With climate science, the media are no experts and cannot tell real science from pseudo-science. The result is that both are reported as if both were opposing sides to a belief based issue. With climate science one can basically say that the Page |2 media presents the views of 97 percent of climate scientists that believe climate change is real equally to the views of the remaining three percent of climate scientists. Mathematically, this gives the three percent of climate scientists that do not believe a bias that is 16 times the weight of evidence presented. “This paper demonstrates that US prestige-press (New York Times, Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, Wall Street Journal) coverage of global warming from 1988 to 2002 has contributed to a significant divergence of popular discourse from scientific discourse. This failed discursive translation results from an accumulation of tactical media responses and practices guided by widely accepted journalistic norms. This paper focuses on the norm of balanced reporting, and shows that the prestige press’s adherence to balance actually leads to biased coverage of both anthropogenic contributions to global warming and resultant action.” Boykoff and Boykoff, Balance as Bias Global warming and the US Prestige Press, Global Environmental Change, 2004, abstract. http://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/publications/downloads/boykoff04-gec.pdf “Only 1 percent of climate scientists rate broadcast or television news as very reliable and 3 percent rate local newspapers as very reliable, while 26 percent rate Al Gore’s An Inconvenient Truth as very reliable.” Lichter, Climate Scientists Agree on Warming, Disagree on Dangers, and Don’t Trust the Media’s Coverage of Climate Change, George Mason University, STATS, April 2008, paragraph 12. http://stats.org/stories/2008/global_warming_survey_apr23_08.html “For years, sceptics have referred to mainstream scientists as alarmists and to mainstream science as junk science (or similar terms). The above instances of the bad science concept should be appreciated as a fundamental tool used by sceptics in their construction of climate change as a controversial issue. This study has shown that by enlisting the media, climate sceptics continue their ‘very cynical and deeply interested campaign to discredit the science of climate change’ (Demeritt, 2001, p. 328) and that these efforts are facilitated by professional journalism practices employed by both newspapers and wire services.” Antilla, Climate of skepticism: US newspaper coverage of the science of climate change, Global Environmental Change, August 3, 2005. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095937800500052X “The findings indicate that supposed challenges to the scientific consensus on global warming need to be subjected to greater scrutiny, as well as showing that, if reporters wish to discuss “both sides” of the climate issue, the scientifically legitimate “other side” is that, if anything, global climate disruption may prove to be significantly worse than has been suggested in scientific consensus estimates to date. Freudenburg and Muselli, Global warming estimates, media expectations and the asymmetry of scientific challenge, Global Environmental Change, August 2010. http://www.skepticalscience.com/pics/Freudenburg_2010_ASC.pdf 3) Affordable climate pollution treatment infrastructure… Once again, the CCCM or FFIX has obliterated appropriate science learning. The academic work supporting feasible air capture of carbon dioxide far outweighs the work that does not support it. But the FFIX has taken one biased paper and discussed it far and wide. The paper (American Physical Society) evaluates the old fashioned 700 degree C technology for flue gas removal using diluted air instead and came up with predictable results. When asked why they did not evaluate the new 100 degree C or less technologies they said data didn’t exist, but data obviously exists. None of this made it to the level of the press however, only the headline that air capture technology is infeasible. Page |3 The bottom line is that the new technologies start at $200 a ton and can be reduced to (at least) $20 per ton once fully industrialized. At $200 per ton, to remove 50 ppm CO2 from the atmosphere and effectively end the climate pollution problem it would cost $21 trillion or a similar amount to U.S. health care spending from 2001 to 2005. Once fully industrialized the cost would be $2.1 trillion. We spend a half trillion across the world every year on advertising. The federal financial bailout in 2008 was $29 trillion. American Physical Society Study: Direct Air Capture of CO2 with Chemicals, The American Physical Society, June 2011. http://www.aps.org/policy/reports/assessments/upload/dac2011.pdf Evaluation of APS study by Nature: http://blogs.nature.com/news/2011/05/sucking_carbon_dioxide_from_ai.html Advertising: We spend $500 billion every year on advertising across the globe… eMarketter, Asia-Pacific Poised to Dominate North America as World’s Top Ad Market, According to ‘Most Comprehensive’ Edition of the eMarketer Global Media Intelligence Report, October 10, 2012, Chart: Total Media Ad Spending Worldwide by Region. $504 billion spent globally on total media ad spending in 2011, $572 projected in 2013. http://www.emarketer.com/newsroom/index.php/asiapacific-poised-dominate-northamerica-worlds-top-ad-market-comprehensive-edition-emarketer-global-mediaintelligence-report/ $29 trillion federal bailout… http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/wp_698.pdf Cost of air capture: Flue capture $60 per ton, $500 or more for air capture… Section 5.1, paragraph 1: “The cost of direct CO2 capture from air will highly influence the overall economic feasibility of the utilization of atmospheric CO2 as carbon feedstock. Using current technologies, the cost to remove a ton of CO2 from point sources such as a coal burning power plant that contain 10–15% CO2 has been estimated between $30 and $100. The cost of direct air capture (DAC) on the other hand varies vastly from about $20 to more than $1000 per ton of CO2.” Goeppert et al., Air as the renewable carbon source of the future - CO2 Capture from the atmosphere, Energy and Environmental Science, May 1, 2012. Abstract only: http://pubs.rsc.org/en/Content/ArticleLanding/2012/EE/c2ee21586a#!divAbstract Cost of Air Capture: $200 per ton initially, $30 per ton fully industrialized... Testimony to the Science, Space and Technology Committee chaired by Lamar Smith, 020410, page 5 first paragraph. http://science.house.gov/sites/republicans.science.house.gov/files/documents/hearings /020410_Lackner.pdf Air Capture: Sky Mining Reference… Goeppert et al., Air as the renewable carbon source of the future - CO2 Capture from the atmosphere, Energy and Environmental Science, May 1, 2012. Abstract only: http://pubs.rsc.org/en/Content/ArticleLanding/2012/EE/c2ee21586a#!divAbstract $20 per ton (just over) capture and storage… Section 5.1 paragraph 2, “using the K2CO3/KHCO3 cycle is described as being able to capture CO2 from air for less than $20 per ton. The total cost including sub-surface injection was estimated to be slightly above $20 per ton.” $49 to $80 per ton… Section 5.1 paragraph 3: “An air capture system designed by Keith et al. using a Na/Ca cycle was estimated to cost approximately $500 per ton C ($140 per ton CO2). The authors added that about a third of this cost was related to capital and Page |4 4) maintenance cost. Further development and optimization of the system by Carbon Engineering Ltd. for the effective extraction of CO2 from air resulted in the decrease of the estimated cost to $49–80 per tonne CO2.” $30 per ton long term… Section 5.1, paragraph 5: “Lackner and co-workers developed an anionic exchange resin able to release CO2 in a moisture swing process. The cost of only the energy required per ton of CO2 collected was around $15. The initial cost of air capture including manufacturing and maintenance can be estimated at about $200 per ton of CO2. However, this cost is expected to drop considerably as more collectors are built, possibly putting CO2 capture in the $30 per ton range in the long term.” Conclusion, first paragraph... “Despite its very low concentration of only 390 ppm, the capture of CO2 directly from the air is technically feasible. Theoretically, CO2 capture from the atmosphere would only require about 2 to 4 times as much energy as capture from flue gases, which is relatively modest considering that at the same time the CO2 concentration is decreased by roughly a factor of 250–300.” 50 ppm CO2 for $21 trillion using existing technologies … Hansen et al., Target Atmospheric CO2 Where Should Humanity Aim? Open Atmospheric Science Journal, November 2008, page 226 and 227, Section 4.4 Policy Relevance, page 227, paragraph 1. “Desire to reduce airborne CO2 raises the question of whether CO2 could be drawn from the air artificially. There are no large-scale technologies for CO2 air capture now, but with strong research and development support and industrial scale pilot projects sustained over decades it may be possible to achieve costs ~$200/tC [81] or perhaps less [82]. At $200/tC, the cost of removing 50 ppm of CO2 is ~$20 trillion.” http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2008/2008_Hansen_etal_1.pdf IPCC: Strong removal of carbon dioxide already in our atmosphere; emissions reductions alone are no longer adequate… Strong Negative Emissions: The IPCC now says that we must remove greater than 100% of annual emissions in order to avoid dangerous climate change. The following quote is from the next to the last statement of fact in the 2013 Scientific Basis, Summary for Policy Makers: "A large fraction of anthropogenic climate change resulting from CO2 emissions is irreversible on a multi-century to millennial time scale, except in the case of a large net removal of CO2 from the atmosphere over a sustained period.” Chapter 12 repeats this statement in different language that adds more meaning and clarification to the Summary for Policymakers statement. From the summary of Chapter 12 Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility, we find: “A large fraction of climate change is largely irreversible on human time scales, unless net anthropogenic CO2 emissions were strongly negative over a sustained period.” In this second statement, “strongly negative” tells us that 100 percent emissions reductions are not adequate. Emissions must be “strongly negative. Personal communications with coordinating and lead authors reveals that this is not a quantifiable amount of emissions, yet. It is basically a policy statement. Strongly negative ,means strongly more than 100 percent emissions reductions. Whether or not the answer is that we must remove twice as much CO2 as we emit every year or three times or more will only be realized when modeling and climate science progresses beyond where it is today. Large net removal… IPCC 2013, Summary for Policy Makers, E.8 "Climate Stabilization, Climate Change Commitment and Irreversibility," p 28, second bullet. http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf Strongly negative… IPCC 2013, Chapter 12, Long-term Climate Change Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility, Executive summary, Page 1033, sixth paragraph. http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_ALL_FINAL.pdf Page |5 5) Public Climate Science Knowledge is 20 Years Behind… About 60 percent of the American public “believes” in climate change while 97 percent of climate scientists believe. In 1991, about 60 percent of climate scientists believed. This puts the public’s understand about 24 years behind the climate scientists. It is a vague comparison, but illustrative. 6) Gallup, March 30, 2012 In U.S., Global Warming Views Steady Despite Warm Winter: 52% say it has already begun, 29 percent say it will begin in the future. http://www.gallup.com/poll/153608/global-warming-views-steady-despite-warmwinter.aspx Pew Center, Modest Rise in Number Saying There Is “Solid Evidence” of Global Warming, November 9-14, 2011 (Published December 1, 2011) : 63% say there is solid evidence of global warming. http://www.people-press.org/files/legacy-pdf/12-111%20Global%20warming%20release.pdf Yale 2012: Weather extremes caused by climate change have changed public awareness: 69 % believe global warming is affecting extreme weather in the U.S. Leiserowitz et al., Extreme-Weather-Climate-Preparedness, Yale Project on Climate Change Communication, April 2012. http://www.climateaccess.org/sites/default/files/Leiserowitz_Extreme%20Weather%20 Climate%20Preparedness.pdf Gallup, March 30, 2012 - Americans' Worries About Global Warming Up Slightly: 61% believe global warming will pose a serious threat to them in their lifetimes. http://www.gallup.com/poll/153653/americans-worries-global-warming-slightly.aspx George Mason University: Climate Scientists Agree on Warming, Disagree on Dangers, and Don’t Trust the Media’s Coverage of Climate Change, George Mason University, STATS, 2008. In 1991, 60 percent of climate scientists believed that Earth was warming. http://stats.org/stories/2008/global_warming_survey_apr23_08.html In 1991 only 60% of climate scientists believed that average global temperatures were up, compared to 97% today. Paragraph 1, bullet 1. Climate Scientists Agree on Warming, Disagree on Dangers, and Don’t Trust the Media’s Coverage of Climate Change, George Mason University, STATS, 2008. http://stats.org/stories/2008/global_warming_survey_apr23_08.html Global Warming Psychology: storytelling and authority figures… Global warming psychology is still hardly a “thing,” but a lot of literature has been published that can be identified with this brand new field of science. The challenges of communicating climate science are many and include its rocket science-like complication, the counter intuitiveness that a few degrees of temperature change could make a difference when our daily temperature changes 100 degrees or more in many locations across the globe throughout the year, the fact that this has never occurred to our society and we do not know how to behave, peer pressure from social groups, religious beliefs, counsel from authority figures, politics, environmentalism biases and the climate change counter-movement. To address the inability of current outreach to make a difference in climate science awareness, this new field has arisen to try and evaluate appropriate solutions to the learning challenge. Authority figures are more valuable than simple facts--the person delivering the news can create greater awareness if that person has a higher credibility in the mind of the listener. Trust is imperative—we believe those we trust. Believability is paramount—regardless of the facts; unbelievable facts are just as unbelievable as fiction. “Those who convey a message are traditionally called ‘messengers,’ though in dialogue, it is probably more appropriate to simply speak of ‘communicators’ or participants in Page |6 the communication. Messengers are integral aspects of the framing; they are also critically important in establishing the credibility of the information conveyed.” Moser, Communicating climate change: history, challenges, process and future directions, Climate Change, December 22, 2009. http://www.susannemoser.com/documents/Moser_WIRE_2010.pdf “A more effective strategy for scientists and science educators should include not only discourse approaches that enable trust, with emphasis on empowerment through reasoning skills, but also approaches that embrace the maturing discipline of media literacy education.” Cooper, Media Literacy as a Key Strategy Toward Public Acceptance of Climate Change Science, Bioscience, March 2011. http://bioscience.oxfordjournals.org/content/61/3/231.full.pdf “Political mobilization by elites and advocacy groups is critical in influencing climate change concern.” Brulle et al., Shifting public opinion on climate change: an empirical assessment of factors influencing concern over climate change in the US 2002 to 2010, Climatic Change, Feb 2012. http://www.pages.drexel.edu/~brullerj/02-12ClimateChangeOpinion.Fulltext.pdf Make global warming local and understandable. Lead by example. Address collective power and leveraging. Make it easy, cool and desirable and incorporate culture and social values. Tan, Innovative Climate Change Communication - Team -6 percent, Global Environment Information Center, United Nations University, October 2008. http://owj.unu-mc.org/2008/11/wp2008_001.pdf 7) Climate catastrophe used as outreach can backfire and create greater skepticism… Very commonly thought to be the only way to increase awareness of climate change issues, presenting catastrophic projections or depictions of our future climate (or our present) can have significant negative effects, increasing skepticism instead of decreasing it. Often the reasoning for increased skepticism is the outlandish way that climate change impacts are presented such as in the film Day after Tomorrow. Gains et al., Promoting pro-environmental action in climate change deniers, Nature Climate change, June 17, 2012. http://www.climateaccess.org/sites/default/files/Bain_Promoting%20proenvironmental%20action.pdf 8) Greenland ice discharge has increased 500 percent in the last ten years… The latest 2013 IPCC Report, Physical Science Basis, Summary for Policy Makers, B.3 Cryosphere, page 7, second bullet. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WGIAR5_SPM_brochure_en.pdf 9) Padre Island Erosion… Beach erosion on South Padre Island is already extreme with average sea level rise in the 5+ mm per year range. Once apparent sea level rise increases past 7 to 10 mm per year, barrier island disintegration begins. This process begins with beach erosion that moves into the dunes. Storms then fragment the barrier island and the natural beach replacement process is slowed or overwhelmed leaving a fragmented island. Over time the fragments erode. Apparent sea level rise takes local conditions into account. That includes changing coastal currents with changing winds, sand starvation from upstream reservoirs, sand starvation from jetties and local subsidence from groundwater pumping and oil pumping, and natural barrier island sediment compaction subsidence. Three major beach areas on South Padre Island and one on North Padre are now eroding into the dunes during normal non-storm conditions. Local factors have likely exacerbated the regional sea level rise rate so that these Page |7 local areas are experiencing apparent sea level rise that is greater than the beach disintegration threshold. The Texas A&M Harte Research Center Geohazards and Geoenvironments of South Padre Island show a steady progression of the beach into the island. Beginning about the turn of the century, the beach width began to diminish as sea level rise increased its rate of rise. South Padre: Harte Research Center Interactive Geohazards mapping: http://geohazards.tamucc.edu/southpadre/SPI_Small_rez.html# Sea level rise and the 7 mm per year barrier island disintegration threshold… Padres Island is a “wave-dominated barrier island” that behaves similarly to wave-dominated barrier islands on the Atlantic coast of the U.S. Paragraph 3, page 56 of this report states: “For Scenario 3, it is very likely that the potential for threshold behavior will increase along many of the mid-Atlantic barrier islands.” Scenario 3 as evaluated in this report is 7 mm of increasing sea level rise per year. Coastal Sensitivity to Sea-Level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region, U.S. Climate Change Science Program, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), in collaboration with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 2009, Chapter 3 Ocean Coasts, 3.7 Potential Changes to the Mid Atlantic Ocean Coast due to sea level rise, 3.7.3 Wave-Dominated Barrier Islands, pages 55 and 56. http://tinyurl.com/l9wfs4l Recent sea level rise rate is double most of the 20th century… The sea level rise rate for 1901 to 1990 has been revised downward through better analysis of old data so that the rate from 1901 to 1990 of 1.75 mm per year is 31 percent less than previous analyses of 1.2 mm per year. The recent period 1990 to 2010 is still 3.0 mm per year. The previous increase of the 1190 to 2010 period over the 1901 to 1990 period of 71 percent has now more than doubled to 150 percent. Hay, et al., Probabilistic reanalysis of twentieth century sea level rise, Nature, 14093, January 2015. (Paywall) http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v517/n7535/full/nature14093.html Press Release: http://www.constantinealexander.net/2015/01/page/4/ 10) 150 dB phone hack… Today’s best phones reach 87 dB at one meter. Modeling sound levels for multiple simultaneous sources using seven distance steps from 25 foot radius to 800 foot radius, totaling 750,000 discrete sound sources at 87 dB, conservatively yields 155 dB. Samsung Galaxy Not Edge: 87 dB (one meter): http://www.phonearena.com/news/Noise-terror---here-are-the-10-smartphones-withthe-loudest-loudspeakers-from-2014_id64287 Distance Calculator: http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/acoustic/isprob2.html Coherent sound level calculator: http://www.sengpielaudio.com/calculator-coherentsources.htm Multiple source calculator: http://www.sengpielaudio.com/calculator-coherentsources.htm Static and dynamic crowd densities at major public events, Technical Report vfdb TB 1201, German Fire Protection Association, March 2012. Maximum density 5 to 6 persons per 10.7 square feet (square meter) Average maximum 4 persons per 10.7 square feet. http://www.vfdb.de/download/TB_13_01_Crowd_densities.pdf 11) Climate Impacts are happening up to 70 years (Arctic sea ice) and 100 years (Antarctic ice loss) ahead of projections… Arctic Sea Ice decline 70 years ahead of schedule: Summertime Page |8 melting of Arctic sea-ice has ‘‘accelerated far beyond the expectations of climate models.’’ Allison 2009, p. 7; see also Stroeve et al., 2007). Using unusually vivid language, the authors note that the record for previous Arctic sea ice summer minimum extent was ‘‘shattered’’ in 2007, ‘‘something not predicted by climate models . . . This dramatic retreat has been much faster than simulated by any of the climate models assessed in the IPCC AR4’’—with summer sea ice now well below the IPCC worst case scenario. Allison 2009, pp. 29–30. Summer minimum sea ice was higher in subsequent years, but still fell near or below the long-term observed downward trend (which, as just noted, declines faster than the model predictions). Then, in 2012, another record minimum was set. Allison et al., The Copenhagen Diagnosis: Updating the World on the Latest Climate Science, University of New South Wales Climate Change Research Center, 2009. http://www.ccrc.unsw.edu.au/Copenhagen/Copenhagen_Diagnosis_HIGH.pdf Stroeve et al, The Arctic’s rapidly shrinking sea ice cover—A research synthesis, Climatic Change, 110, 1005-1027, 2012, published online June 2011. http://www.springerlink.com/content/c4m01048200k08w3/fulltext.pdf IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Technical Basis, Chapter 10 Global Climate Projections, November 2007, page 771. Antarctic ice loss is over 100 years ahead of schedule… Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) in the 2007 IPCC Report was supposed to increase, not decrease, for all scenarios, through 2100. This means that snow accumulation was supposed to be more than melt, evaporation and iceberg discharge combined. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Fourth Assessment Report, Climate Change 2001: Climate Change 2007: Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis, 10.6.5, Projections of Global Average Sea Level Change for the 21st Century, Table 10.7. http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch10s10-6-5.html The 2013 IPCC report tells us that Antarctic ice loss has almost caught up with Greenland… Summary for Policy Makers, E.3 Cryosphere, page 5, third bullet. http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGI_AR5_SPM_brochure.pdf The literature is replete with evaluations acknowledging that climate scientists err on the side of conservatism—they understate the risks and concerns of our changing climate. “Over the past two decades, skeptics of the reality and significance of anthropogenic climate change have frequently accused climate scientists of ‘‘alarmism’’: of overinterpreting or overreacting to evidence of human impacts on the climate system. However, the available evidence suggests that scientists have in fact been conservative in their projections of the impacts of climate change.” Brysse et al., Climate Change Prediction: Erring on the side of least drama, Global Environmental Change, 23, November 2012. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378012001215 Personal experience and climate beliefs: “Among the full survey sample, we found that both processes occurred: ‘experiential learning’, where perceived personal experience of global warming led to increased belief certainty, and ‘motivated reasoning’, where high belief certainty influenced perceptions of personal experience. We then tested and confirmed the hypothesis that motivated reasoning occurs primarily among people who are already highly engaged in the issue whereas experiential learning occurs primarily among people who are less engaged in the issue, which is particularly important given that approximately 75% of American adults currently have low levels of engagement.” Myers et al., The relationship between personal experience and belief in the reality of global warming, Nature Climate Change, December 2, 2012. paywall: http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v3/n4/full/nclimate1754.html Researchgate (free subscription) Page |9 http://www.researchgate.net/publication/240100735_The_relationship_between_pers onal_experience_and_belief_in_the_reality_of_global_warming “Evidence suggests that personal experience is more likely to influence Americans with no strong beliefs about climate change than those with firm beliefs.” Weber, Seeing is believing, Nature Climate Change, April 2013. http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2293048 12) The PMP, Possible Maximum Precipitation – How much more extreme can rainfall events become on a warmer planet?... TP-40, or Technical Paper 40 is a piece of fundamental meteorological science produced by the National Weather Service in 1961 (at the time they were called the Weather Bureau). This document basically defines intensity, duration and frequency for rainfall events across the continental U.S. It basically defines what we know as the 100-year storm. A thing called the PMP, or Possible Maximum Precipitation is defined by TP-40. The PMP is exactly as it sounds–physically, the most rainfall that could fall. It is a determination of how much rain could possibly fall if the physical conditions were perfect and temperature and humidity maxed out. Back in 1961 the Weather Bureau did these calcs for the contiguous U.S. and this document has been the starting point for weather intensity evaluation ever since. To illustrate how much more extreme our rainfall events could become we can look at storm frequency and intensity in Austin, Texas. The 6-hour 10-year storm for Austin is 7.1 inches The 6-hour 500-year storm for Austin is 8 inches The 6-hour PMP for Austin is 31 inches This is not to say that we will see 31 inches of rain in six hours, but it does relate the 40 percent increase in extreme storms (reference 12) Austin has seen with 1 degree Fahrenheit of warming relative to what we could expect with the IPCC 2013 suggested 9 degree Fahrenheit increase in Austin by 2100. The headroom our climate has to become even more extreme is large. 13) The most extreme rainfall events have increased 40 percent across the South Central U.S… “If a 0.558 C increase was accompanied by a 40% increase in extreme precipitation, what can we expect from global temperature increases projected for the next few decades?” Groisman et al., Changes in Intense Precipitation over the Central United States, Journal of the American Meteorological Society, February 2012. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JHM-D-11-039.1 14) Heat extremes are already happening 10 to 100 times more frequently in Texas… Abstract: “This hot extreme, which covered much less than 1% of Earth’s surface during the base period, now typically covers about 10% of the land area.” Discussion, page 6 of 9, third paragraph: “These extreme temperatures were practically absent in the period of climatology, covering only a few tenths of one percent of the land area, but they are occurring over about 10% of global land area in recent years…. It follows that we can state, with a high degree of confidence, that extreme anomalies such as those in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010 were a consequence of global warming because their likelihood in the absence of global warming was exceedingly small.” Hansen, Sato, Ruedy, Perception of Climate Change, Proceedings of the National Academy of Science of the United States of America (PNAS), August 2012. http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2012/07/30/1205276109.full.pdf+html 15) Global Warming has Already Doubled the Droughts and Floods in the U.S. Southeast… A Duke University-led team of climate scientists suggests that global warming is the main cause of a significant intensification in the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH) that in the last 30 years P a g e | 10 has more than doubled the frequency of abnormally wet or dry summer weather in the southeastern United States. Li, et. al., Changes to the North Atlantic Subtropical High and Its Role in the Intensification of Summer Rainfall Variability in the Southeastern United States, Journal of Climate, October 2010. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2010JCLI3829.1 Script: Additional References 16) Greenland melt: more than in the last 100,000 years… Carbon-14 dating of rooted plant remains found beneath the retreating edge of the ice sheet on Baffin Island, just west of northern Greenland, shows the plants to have been alive at least 44,000 years ago. Most ice sheets plow along as they go, disturbing plants. This one however is a non-flowing small ice sheet that simply piles up and melts away with no lateral movement. The critical part of this evaluation is that 44,000 years ago we were in the depths of the last ice age and it is highly improbably that the plants were alive then. Carbon-14 data has a limit of about 44,000 years. The last time it was plausible that this ice sheet was small enough for these plants to have been alive was in the vicinity of 100,000 years ago. Miller et al., Unprecedented recent summer warmth in Arctic Canada, Geophysical Research Letters, October 2013. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013GL057188/abstract Greenland ice loss IPCC 2013, 500 percent increase in the last ten years… Total ice loss from melt, evaporation and icebergs has increase 532 percent from 34 gigatons 1992 2001 to 215 gigatons 2002 to 2011. 2013 IPCC, Summary for Policy Makers, B3 Cryosphere, bullet 2. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf Greenland’s ice loss appears to be 22 percent more than 2013 IPCC suggests… The IPCC uses four major outlet glaciers to define Greenland ice mass loss. The most recent evaluation uses 130 glaciers and nearly 100,000 satellite laser altimetry points across Greenland. Csatho et al., Laser altimetry reveals complex pattern of Greenland Ice Sheet dynamics, PNAS, December 30, 2014, abstract and paragraph 2, page 18480. http://www.pnas.org/content/111/52/18478.full.pdf+html 17) Abrupt climate changes have happened 23 times in the last 100,000 years… Twenty-three times in the last 100,000 years our climate has changed 9 to 14 degrees F globally and 25 to 35 across the Arctic in time frames of as little as one to three years. Alley, Wally Was Right - Predictive ability of the North Atlantic Conveyor Belt Hypothesis for Abrupt Climate Change, Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Science, February 2007, Figure 1 shows the 23 abrupt climate changes. http://shadow.eas.gatech.edu/~kcobb/abrupt/alley07.pdf One to three years… As little as one to three years and the methods and techniques to determine. “The high resolution records from the NGRIP ice core reveals that polar atmospheric circulation can shift in 1-3 years resulting in decadal to centennial scale P a g e | 11 changes from cold stadials to warm interstadials/interglacials associated with astounding Greenland temperature changes of 10K.” Two to three years… Steffensen et al., High-Resolution Greenland Ice Core Data Show Abrupt Climate Change Happens in Few Years, Science Express, June 12, 2008, page three, final paragraph. http://www.sciencemag.org/content/321/5889/680.abstract 18) Permafrost melt… “Field observations reveal that abrupt thaw processes are co nun on in northern landscapes, but our review shows that mechanisms that speed thawing of frozen ground and release of permafrost carbon are entirely absent from the large-scale models used to predict the rate of climate change… Permafrost carbon emissions are likely to be felt over decades to centuries as northern regions warm. malting climate change happen faster than we would expect on the basis of projected emissions from human activities alone.” “Recent progress towards predicting change in permafrost carbon dynamics focuses mostly on gradual top-down thawing of permafrost. However, increasing evidence from the permafrost zone suggests that abrupt permafrost thaw may be the norm for many parts of the Arctic landscape"·'8.6'-62 (Fig. 4). Abrupt permafrost thaw occurs when warming melts ground ice, causing the land surface to collapse into the volume previously occupied by ice. This process, called thermokarst, alters surface hydrology. Water is attracted towards collapse areas, and pooling or flowing water in turn causes more localized thawing and even mass erosion. Owing to these localized feedbacks that can thaw through tens of metres of permafrost across a hillslope within only a few years, permafrost thaw occurs much more rapidly than would be predicted from changes in air temperature alone. This raises the question of whether key complexity is missing from large-scale model projections that are based on first approximations of permafrost dynamics.” “Wetland expansion due to abrupt thaw has affected 10% of a peatland landscape in northwestern Canada since the 1970s, with the fastest expansion in the past decade. Landscape lake cover is also affected by abrupt thaw, with net change being the sum of both lake expansion and drainage. The area of small open-water features around Prudhoe Bay on the Alaska tundra has doubled since 1990. In northwestern Alaska, lake initiation has increased since 1950, while lake expansion rates remained steady. In general, landscape lake cover is currently believed to be stable or increasing within the continuous permafrost zone, whereas there is a tendency for lake drainage and vegetation infilling to dominate over lake expansion in the discontinuous permafrost zone.” Schuur, Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback, Nature, April 9, 2015. http://www.researchgate.net/publication/274698738_Climate_change_and_the_permafrost_c arbon_feedback North of Denali National park in Alaska, 12 percent of the permafrost showed exhibited thermokarst, or actively melting permafrost features… Belshe , Quantification of upland thermokarst features with high resolution remote sensing, Environmental Research Letters, July 16, 2013. http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/3/035016/pdf/1748-9326_8_3_035016.pdf Satellite imagery evaluation of permafrost melt in Northwest Territories Canada shows an average of 0.5 percent loss per year from 1977 top 2008, or about 16 percent… Chasmer et al., Quantifying errors in discontinuous permafrost plateau changes in optical data, Northwest Territories, Canada, 1947 to 2008. http://scholar.ulethbridge.ca/sites/default/files/chasmer/files/chasmer_etal_2010_qua ntifying_errors_in_discontinuous_permafrost_plateau_change_from_optical_data_nwt _1947-2008.pdf P a g e | 12 United Nations Environmental Program report: Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost - Summary of permafrost melt indications from the report… Recent warming in the Arctic and mountainous regions has resulted in warmer permafrost and deeper active layers (that freeze/thaw every year). During the last several decades, permafrost is warming in most regions with evidence of talik formation (permanently thawed area) at some locations in discontinuous permafrost regions. Increased snow cover and warming permafrost resulted in massive development of new taliks in the northwest of Russia, shifting the boundary between continuous and discontinuous permafrost northward in northern Russia by several tens of kilometers. Measurements of active layer thickness are not conclusive, with some sites showing a clear increase, while others show no increase. Permafrost temperatures have risen over the last several decades in Alaska. Coastal sites show continuous warming since the 1980s and this warming trend has propagated south towards the Brooks Range, with noticeable warming in the upper 20 m of permafrost since 2008. Permafrost in the Alaskan interior warmed in the 1980s and 1990s, but has generally stabilized during the last ten years. Northern Russia and northwest Canada show increases in permafrost temperature similar in magnitude to those in Alaska during the last 30 to 35 years. Air temperatures above the Arctic Circle are increasing at roughly twice the global average, so the same pattern repeats across the Arctic with coastal sites warming faster than more southerly sites. Trends in active layer thickness are less conclusive, with some sites showing increases, but others showing no trend at all (with no sites showing a decrease in active layer thickness). Active layer thickness has increased in the Russian European North, but not in West Siberia. Increases in summer air temperature have increased the active layer thickness on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau). Although active layer thickness has increased in the Alaskan and Canadian interior, there is no obvious trend near the Arctic coastline. Melting of excess ground ice might explain the lack of consistent trends in active layer thickness even though permafrost temperatures show clear signs of warming. Year-toyear variability in active layer thickness due to variations in summer air temperature also makes it difficult to detect long-term trends. However, radar measurements near Prudhoe Bay indicate the surface has subsided by several centimeters since 1992, even though nearby CALM sites showed no obvious increases in active layer thickness. The excess ground ice in near-surface permafrost, if present, melts slowly over several years, the water drains away and the ground surface settles, a process that is difficult to detect using mechanical probing at CALM sites. Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost, United Nations Environmental Program, 2012. http://www.unep.org/pdf/permafrost.pdf 19) Permafrost can be over 2,000 feet deep… In northern Canada, permafrost can be as much as 2,300 feet deep. Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost, United Nations Environmental Program, 2012. http://www.unep.org/pdf/permafrost.pdf 20) Methane gas expulsion craters in Russia… A new phenomenon likely caused by accumulating methane from melting permafrost at depth and capped by ice or clay soil. Mysterious Craters Are Just the Beginning of Arctic Surprises http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/mysterious-craters-are-just-the-beginning-of-arcticsurprises/ P a g e | 13 21) Methane is 105 times more powerful of a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide in time frames that matter… In the far more critical 20-year time frame than the standard CO2 warming comparison period of 100 years. Shindell, et. al., Improved Attribution of Climate Forcing to Emissions, Nature, October 2009. http://saive.com/911/DOCS/AAAS-Aerosols-not-CO2-Cause-Global-Warming.pdf 22) Methane venting in the Laptev Sea north of Siberia… More methane is venting from the Laptev Sea north of Siberia than all of the rest of the world’s oceans combined. The area of the Arctic Ocean north of Siberia is the shallowest continental shelf in the world. It was above water level during the last ice age when sea level was 360 feet lower and is the site of significant permafrost deposition that was subsequently flooded as we emerged from the last ice age pulse about 10,000 years ago. Today this area is likely the most rapidly warming area in the Arctic Ocean and this is likely impacting permafrost equilibrium. Shahkova et.al., Extensive methane venting to the atmosphere from sediments of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, Science, March 2010. http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download;jsessionid=E6EDB0669DD2904AAE6B27561320 9BF7?doi=10.1.1.374.5869&rep=rep1&type=pdf 23) The Mountain Pine beetle has devastated 88 million acres in North America… With a 70 to 90 percent kill rate, the native beetle is only stopped by extreme cold that disappeared over twenty years ago. National Geographic, That Bug That’s eating the Woods, April 2015. http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2015/04/pine-beetles/rosner-text Sims et al., Complementarity in the provision of ecosystem services reduces the cost of mitigation amplified natural disturbance events, PNAS, November 25, 2014. http://www.pnas.org/content/111/47/16718.full.pdf