Download Climate Change - Hans von Storch

Ten years of implementing
regional climate service –
practice and lessons
Hans von Storch
with material provided by Dennis Bray, Insa Meinke, Armineh Barkhordarian, Ralf Weisse, Beate Ratter,
Katharina Phillip, Marcus Reckermann, Katja Woth
and after discussions with Nico Stehr, Werner Krauß, Roger Pielke, Jerry Ravetz and Reiner Grundmann
Institute of Coastal Research,
Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, Germany
27 October 2010, BNU, Beijing
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Hans von Storch
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Climate researcher (in the field since 1971)
Coastal climate (storms, storm surges,
waves; North and Baltic Sea, North
Atlantic); statistical analysis
Cooperation with social and cultural
scientists since 1992
Director of the Institute of Coastal
Research of the Helmholtz Zentrum
Geesthacht, Germany
Professor at Universität Hamburg
Challenges in science –
stakeholder interactions
Many … here two issues out of a
larger range
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A challenge: Different perceptions
among scientists and the public
Ratter, Philipp, von Storch, 2012: Between Hype and Decline – Recent Trends in Public Perception of
Climate Change, Environ. Sci. & Pol. 18 (2012) 3-8
Bray, D., 2010: The scientific consensus of climate change revisited. Env. Sci. Pol. 13: 340 – 350
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Another challenge: Stakeholder do hardly interlink
directly with climate scientists
How strongly do you employ the
following sources of information,
for deciding about issues related to
climate adaptation?
Regional administrators in German
Baltic Sea coastal regions.
Bray, 2011, pers. comm.
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One of the key elements
involved in the challenges:
The knowledge market
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Climate Change: Constructions
• Climate change is a „constructed“ issue. People hardly experience
„climate change“.
(“Constructed” does not mean "made up" or "invented“, but originating from an abstract
context, which may be quite divorced from day-to-day reality. )
• One construction is scientific, i.e., an „objective“ analysis of observations
and interpretation by theories.
• The other construction is cultural, in particular maintained and
transformed by the public media.
• Climate science is in a post-normal phase (where interest-led utility is a
significant driver, and less so “normal” curiosity)
Postnormal science
Jerry Ravetz, Silvio Funtovicz, 1986 and earlier
State of science, when facts uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and
decisions urgent.
von Storch, H., 2009: Climate Research and Policy Advice: Scientific and Cultural Constructions of Knowledge.
Env. Science Pol. 12, 741-747 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2009.04.008
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Two different construction of „climate change“
– scientific and cultural – which is more powerful?
Cultural: „Klimakatastrophe“
Temperature
Scientific: man-made change is real, can be mitigated
to some extent but not completely avoided
Lund and Stockholm
Storms
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Knowledge market
• The science-policy/public interaction is not an issue of the linear model
of „knowledge speaks to power“.
• The problem is not that the public is stupid or uneducated.
• Science has failed to respond to legitimate public questions and has
instead requested. “Trust us, we are scientists”.
• Climate science is taking place under post-normal conditions.
• The problem is that the scientific knowledge is confronted on the
„explanation market“ with other forms of knowledge. Scientific
knowledge does not necessarily “win” this competition.
• Non-sustainable claims-making by climate change (stealth) advocates
to the public has lead to fatigue.
• Overselling goes with loss of “capital” of science, namely public trust.
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One tool:
regional climate services
Using our own experience with the 8-year experience in setting
up and running the “Norddeutsches Klimabüro”, headed by Insa
Meinke.
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Regional climate service
An institution set up to enable communication between science and
stakeholders
• that is: making sure that science understands the questions and concerns of a
variety of stakeholders
• that is: making sure that the stakeholders understand the scientific
assessments and their limits.
Provision of stakeholders with relevant knowledge, information and data about
regional climate change, its perspectives and probable causes
Recognition and analysis of
• post-normal situation (politicization of issues),
• alternative knowledge claims,
• other drivers also changing environmental conditions
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Regional climate service comprises …
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Building a dialogue with public and deciders
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Dealing with the issues of
- present change (consistency with scenarios)
- perspectives (projections vs. predictions)
- reality of culturally constructed knowledge about climate, climate change and
climate impact
- confusion because of differently used terminology
- discrimination between legitimate scientific knowledge and politically
motivated knowledge claims
- post-normal conditioning of climate research
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Provision of
- robust (homogeneous) data
- robust knowledge
von Storch, H. and I. Meinke, 2008: Regional climate offices and regional assessment reports needed.
Nature geosciences 1 (2), 78
Determining social reality:
the Hamburg survey since 2008
Every spring since 2008, the survey the company FORSA is tasked to telephone-survey about
500 people in Hamburg about their opinions about climate and climate change.
 Climate change is
considered a relevant issue
– when directly asked if so.
Otherwise it is not a topic
among the 10 most
significant issues.
Attention and concern
varies, without systematic
changes.
 Storm surges are
considered the most
important risks in
Hamburg.
Ratter, Phillip, ongoing work; Ratter, Philipp, von Storch, 2012: Between Hype and Decline –
Recent Trends in Public Perception of Climate Change, Environ. Sci. & Pol. 18 (2012) 3-8
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Determining social reality:
the confusion about „Projections and predictions“
The IPCC provides the following operational definitions :
“A projection is a potential future evolution …” and “A climate prediction or
climate forecast is the result of an attempt to produce an estimate of the
actual evolution of the climate in the future …”
But in practice these terms are mixed up.
Bray and von Storch (2009) find that
• about 29% of climate scientists call
“most probable developments”
projections,
• while about 20% “possible
developments” are labeled “predictions”.
Bray, D., and H. von Storch, 2009: 'Prediction' or 'Projection'?
The nomenclature of climate science. Sci. Comm. 30, 534-543
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Consistency of recent regional change:
Baltic Sea Region
Observed CRU, EOBS (1982-2011)
Projected GS signal, A1B scenario
10 simulations (ENSEMBLES)
Observed and projected
temperature trends (1982-2011)
The observed trends are beyond
the range of natural variability. In
DJA and MAM the change may
be explained with GHG alone; in
JJA and SON other causes are
also needed.
Red bars – natural variability – for detection of a non-natural cause
Black bar – uncertainty of scenarios – for consistency of recent trend with cause described
in scenarios
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Consistency of recent local change:
Storm surges in Hamburg
Difference betwenn peak heights of storm
surges in Cuxhaven and Hamburg
Main cause for recently elevated
storm surges in Hamburg is the
modification of the river Elbe –
(coastal defense and shipping
channel deepening) and less so
because of changing storms or
sea level.
von Storch, H. and K. Woth, 2008: Storm surges, perspectives
and options. Sustainability Science 3, 33-44
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Tools for regional climate servicing
Klimaatlas / atlas klimatu
http://www.ujscieodry-atlasklimatu.pl
http://www.norddeutscher-klimaatlas.de
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Raw data from 12 regional climate projections
Analyzed for Northern Germany and Pomeranian Bight
Interactive user interface
Similar system adapted by German Weather System
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Tools for regional climate servicing
climate con/dis-sensus reports
Assessments of knowledge about regional climate
change
- for the recent past (200 years), for present change
and possible future change
- consensus of what is scientifically documented
- documentation of contested issues.
for
+ Baltic Sea (BACC) – BACC 1 done in 2008,
BACC 2 in final editing phase
+ Hamburg region (published November 2010)
+ North Sea (in final phase)
Full reports and condensed reports for general
public.
Reckermann, M., H.-J. Isemer and H. von
Storch, 2008: Climate Change Assessment for
the Baltic Sea Basin. EOS Trans. Amer.
Geophys. U., 161-162
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Tools for regional climate servicing
homogeneous data sets of past and future change
The CoastDat data set:
GKSS in Geesthacht
• Model generated data sets
• Long (60 years) and high-resolution reconstructions of recent offshore
and coastal conditions mainly in terms of wind, storms, waves, surges
and currents and other variables in N Europe
• Scenarios (100 years) of possible consistent futures of coastal and
offshore conditions.
• extensions – ecological variables and other regions: Baltic Sea, E Asia,
Laptev Sea
Clients:
• Governmental: various coastal agencies dealing with coastal defense
and coastal traffic
• Companies: assessments of risks (ship and offshore building and
operations) and opportunities (wind energy)
• General public / media: explanations of causes of change; perspectives
and options of change
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Some applications of
- Ship design
- Navigational safety
- Offshore wind
- Interpretation of measurements
- Oils spill risk and chronic oil
pollution
- Ocean energy
- Scenarios of storm surge conditions
- Scenarios of future wave conditions
Wave Energy Flux [kW/m]
Currents Power [W/m2]
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Norddeutsches Klimabüro:
activities and main clients
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So … what?
Concluding
remarks
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Take home:
knowledge about climate
• Climate change is a „constructed“ issue. People hardly experience
„climate change“.
• One construction is scientific, i.e. an „objective“ analysis of
observations and interpretation by theories.
• The other construction is cultural, in particular maintained and
transformed by the public media.
• Climate science operates in a post-normal situation, which goes
along with a tendency of politicizing science, and scientizing politics.
Cultural science need to support climate science to deal with this
challenge.
• The cultural and scientific constructions mix.
• The utility of scientific assertions in the political arena compete with
their accuracy.
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Regional climate service as mechanism
for interacting with public and stakeholders
• Climate Science needs to offer “Climate Service”, which includes the
establishment of a dialogue with the public and stakeholders –
recognizing the socio-cultural dynamics of the issue.
• Climate service must take into account competing alternative
knowledge claims.
• Climate Service should adhere to the principle of sustainability –
building trust by avoiding overselling and being explicit in spelling
out contested issues.
• Climate Service is more than providing data to mostly anonymous
clients; direct interaction is in many cases needed.
• Also precise language should be used, no more “the science is
settled”, no cavalier usage of the term “predictions”, when
“projections” are meant.
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For further reading
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von Storch, H., 2014: Klimaservice: Nachhaltig "Vorhersagen"? Aus
Politik und Zeitgeschichte, 31-32/2014, 41-46
Krauss, W., and H., von Storch, 2012: Post-Normal Practices Between
Regional Climate Services and Local Knowledge. nature and culture 7:
213-230
Ratter, B., K. Philipp and H. von Storch, 2012: Between Hype and Decline
– Recent Trends in Public Perception of Climate Change, Env. Sci. Pol.
18, 3-8
von Storch, H., I. Meinke, N. Stehr, B. Ratter, W. Krauss, R.A. Pielke jr., R.
Grundmann, M. Reckermann and R. Weisse, 2011: Regional Climate
Services illustrated with experiences from Northern Europe. J. Env.
Law Pol. 1/2011, 1-15
Bray, D., 2010: The scientific consensus of climate change revisited.
Env. Sci. Pol. 13: 340 – 350
von Storch, H., 2009: Climate Research and Policy Advice: Scientific
and Cultural Constructions of Knowledge. Env. Sci. Pol. 12, 741-747
von Storch, H. and I. Meinke, 2008: Regional climate offices and regional
assessment reports needed. Nature geosciences 1, 78
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