Download Division - Hans von Storch

Overview –
GKSS Institute for Coastal
Research
Hans von Storch
(Speaker)
10. November 2009, CAS YIC, Yantai
Institute for Coastal Research
of GKSS Research Center
Key research questions addressed by the GKSS coastal
research program are
• How is global change affecting the coastal system?
• What is the present state and present change of the
coastal zone?
• How can we reliably and cost-effectively monitor
coastal processes?
Institute for Coastal Research@GKSS
cooperates with ZMAW and AWI
Mission
The GKSS Research program advances fundamental coastal science and provides a
scientific basis for rational coastal management. Our approach integrates basic
research on climate, ecosystem diversity, and ecological chemistry in the coastal zone
with innovative applied perspectives, including regional impacts of Global Change.
Research Topics
Coastal Change: long term trends and extreme events
Observation and Information for Coastal Management
Coastal Diversity: key species and food webs
Chemical Interactions: ecological functions and effects
Infrastructure of Institute for Coastal Research
Observational systems
• Stand alone systems: wave rider buoys, wave radar and pole
systems
• Operational measuring systems on board of ships (FerryBox)
• Measures and systems for remote sensing
Research vessels “Ludwig Prandtl” and “Storch”
Laboratories equipped with: GC-MSD, LC-MS/MS, GC-MS/MS …
DKRZ (German Climate Computing Centre)
Various environmental system models:
• regional atmospheric models CLM and REMO
• hydrodynamic model TRIM
• wave models HYPA-S, k-model, WAM
• atmospheric transport and transformation model
CMAQ
^
BALTEX Secretariat
Climate Office
LOICZ - IPO
Institute for Coastal Research@GKSS :
part of North German coastal science network
Climate,
ecosystems,
monitoring
DKRZ
climate, physics
coastal
applications
Two key projects
• ICON / COSYNA – development of a preoperational system for monitoring coastal
seas.
• CoastDat – description of long term
variability and construction of scenarios of
possible futures states.
Additional other important but somewhat smaller projects
Overview –
Institut for Coastal
Research - System
Analysis and
Modelling
Human Dimension in the
Coastal Zones
KSO
Hans von Storch
Director
Division
“Coastal Climate”
• Reconstruction of past and ongoing climate change in the coastal
and shelf sea areas (wind, waves, storm surges, sea level,
temperature, …)
• Scenarios of possible future developments
• Areas: Mainly North Sea, first studies also on Baltic Sea, polar and
tropical areas
• Maintenance of coastDat
Applications: past and future
marine weather in N Europe
downscaling cascade for constructing
variable regional and local marine
weather statistics
Simulation with barotropic
model of North Sea
Globale development
(NCEP)
Dynamical Downscaling
REMO or CLM
Cooperation with a variety of governmental agencies
and with a number of private companies
Baroclinic storms in N Europe
Problem for synoptic systems solved by CoastDat@GKSS
in N Europe, using RCM spectrally nudged to NCEP
- retrospective analysis 1958-2005
- good skill with respect
to statistics, but not all
details are recovered.
Weisse, R., H. von Storch and F. Feser, 2005: Northeast Atlantic and North Sea storminess as simulated by a
regional climate model 1958-2001 and comparison with observations. J. Climate 18, 465-479
www.coastdat.de
 Long-term, high-resolution reconstuctions (50 years) of present and recent
developments of weather related phenomena in coastal regions as well as
scenarios of future developments (100 years)
 Northeast Atlantic and northern Europe
 “Standard” model systems (“frozen”)
 Assessment of changes in storms, ocean waves, storm surges, currents and
regional transport of anthropogenic substances.
 Data freely available.
Applications
 many authorities with responsibilities for different aspects of the German coasts
 economic applications by engineering companies (off-shore wind potentials and
risks) and shipbuilding company
Public information
Scenarios for Northern Germany
Scenarios 2030, 2085
Only the effect of
changing weather
conditions is
considered, not the
effect of water works
such as dredging the
shipping channel.
21 October - Zahn, M., and H. von Storch, 2009: A longterm climatology of
North Atlantic Polar Lows. Geophys. Res. Lett., in press
A dynamical downscaling of the 6-hourly 1948-2006 NCEP/NCAR re-analyses
for the subarctic region of the North Atlantic has been used to derive a climatology
of polar lows by means of a tracking algorithm based on the simulated bandpass
filtered MSLP-fields. This climatology is consistent with the limited observational
evidence in terms of frequency and spatial distribution.
The climatology exhibits strong year-to-year variability but weak decadal variability
and a negligible trend. A Canonical Correlation Analysis describes the conditioning
of the formation of polar lows by characteristic meridional seasonal mean flow
regimes, which favor cold air outbreaks and upper air troughs.
Division
“Regional Atmospheric Modelling and Statistics”
• Major research areas
– Further developing of the regional atmospheric climate
model CCLM (COSMO-CLM)
– Detection and attribution on the regional scale
– Wind over land
– Transferability of regional atmospheric climate models
– Dynamical Downscaling
4 May - Bhend, J., and H. von Storch, 2009: Consistency of observed
temperature trends in the Baltic Sea catchment area with anthropogenic
climate change scenarios, Boreal Environment Research, accepted
Abstract: When investigating a human contribution to the observed climate
change, often detection and attribution studies are sought after. However, for
regional scale climate change, a human influence is often not detectable due to the
increasing variability with decreasing spatial aggregation and limitations in
modelling regional scale climate. Nevertheless, one can investigate if
anthropogenic forcing is a plausible explanation for the observed changes.
Therefore, we compare the most recent trends in surface temperature over land
with anthropogenic climate change projections from regional climate model
simulations. We analyze patterns of change with different spatiotemporal
resolution. The observed annual area mean changes in daily mean temperature
are consistent with the anthropogenic climate change signal. In contrast, we find
little consistency in both the seasonal cycle and the spatial variability of the
modelled and projected changes.
Bhend, J., and H. von Storch, 2007:, Climate Dynamics,
Regional JJA temperatures
Bhend, J., and H. von Storch, 2007:, Climate Dynamics,
Δ=0.05%
Regional DJF precipitation
Division
“Modelling for the Assessment of Coastal
Systems“
• Model supported interpretation of long-term monitoring data:
- biological long-term observations at Helgoland and other station
- monitoring of oil-contaminated beached birds
• Transport processes, long term simulations:
- Water exchange between tidal basins and the North Sea
- planned: Sediment transport in the Elbe estuary
• Model developments:
- Nested model for the North Sea and coastal regions, including
thermodynamics (TRIM)
- With BAW: Interface between the morphodynamic model
SediMorph and TRIM → Application to the Sylt-Rømø Bight.
- PELETS: Toolbox for the evaluation of Lagrangian ensemble
simulations (transport rates and times, residence times…),
9. September - Alena Chrastansky, Ulrich Callies and David M. Fleet: Estimation of
the impact of prevailing weather conditions on the occurrence of oil-contaminated
dead birds on the German North Sea coast . accepted for publication in
Environmental Pollution
Issue: chronical pollution of North sea with oil
Method: modell-based reconstruction of the drift of oil- and oil-contaminated bird
corpsess, using CoastDat wind and current data
Result:
(1) Interannual variability compares
with empircal data about finding of dead,
oil-polluted birds along the beaches.
(2) Main cause of inter-annual variability
likely due to weather variations not to
regulation of shipping.
Example:
Melanitta nigra
Division
„Environmental Chemistry“
Issues:
- chemistry of harmful substances in the coastal and marine environment,
e.g.: persistent, bioaccumulative and toxic chemical compounds (pbt substances or „POPs“)
- occurrence, input sources and distribution pathways of pbt‘s on different
temporal and spatial scales
- importance and variability of PAH emissions (from ship- and land-based
sources) for the deposition into the North and Baltic Seas
- experimental data on the occurrence, input sources and distribution
pathways for substances of emerging concern, such as polyfluorinated
compounds, brominated flame retardants, ...
Scientific tools:
modern analytical instrumentation (HPLC-MS/MS; GC-MS/MS) and a stateof-the-art chemistry and transport model (CMAQ)
POPs in the Coastal Marine Environment
Analytical work
3
Example:
1
ng L-
4
2
1
Ocean Data
View
0
Sum concentration of
polyfluorinated in the
German Bight and a
part of the Baltic Sea
Chemistry Transport Modelling
Example:
Deposition of Benzo(a)Pyrene
into the Baltic Sea
sum in 2000 (in tons)
Division
“Model Supported Monitoring and Forecasting
Systems”
Use numerical modelling to
(1) optimise the integration of observing
systems.
(2) extend (synthetic) data coverage
(3) provide consistent information
(including state estimates and
forecasts)
(4) improve sampling strategies
COSYNA (Coastal Observation System for Northern and Arctic
Seas);
Synergy between observations and modelling.
Model development
ocean wave (sea state) models: WAM, k-model
suspended matter transport models
Division
Human dimensions of coastal zones
changes
• Reconstruction of the regional cultural context on a historical, functional
and perceptional basis
• Analysis of social values, problem perceptions, institutional networks
and communication in the context of coastal management and the
development of offshore wind energy in the German north Sea
• pilot study on risk perception and hazard management in the European
Wadden Sea
• Compilation and analysis of results of Survey of the Perceptions on
Climate Scientists About Global Warming
The International BALTEX Secretariat at GKSS
GKSS hosts and finances the International BALTEX Secretariat.
Major tasks of the Secretariat:
• to support the BALTEX Science Steering Group and all Working Groups and
Panels in their activities, and to provide preliminary reviews of their work,
• to maintain connections with all participating research groups and with all
operational data and numerical modelling and data centres within BALTEX,
• to prepare for international BALTEX Conferences and Workshops and provide
assistance for reports to the GEWEX and CEOP Science Steering Groups, and
other relevant international groups,
• to prepare BALTEX related publications and posters, including the
International BALTEX Secretariat Report and the BALTEX Newsletter,
• to maintain a dedicated BALTEX web site www.baltex-research.eu.
Staff: Dr. Hans-Jörg Isemer (head), Dr. Marcus Reckermann, Silke Köppen
e-mail: [email protected]
• BACC = BALTEX
Assessment for Climate
Change in the Baltic Sea
Region has been compiled in
2005 to2007 with organizational
guidance of the international
BALTEX secretariat at GKSS
and coordinated with the
Helsinki Commission HELCOM.
• The book has been published in
January 2008
• A second review is planned to
be published in 2012.
http://www.baltex-research.eu/BACC/Introduction1.html
North German Climate Office@GKSS
An institution set up to enable communication between
science and stakeholders
• that is: making sure that science understands the
questions and concerns of a variety of stakeholders
• that is: making sure that the stakeholders understand the
scientific assessments and their limits.
Typical stakeholders:
Coastal defense, agriculture, off-shore activities (energy),
tourism, water management, fisheries, urban planning
Downscaling
SE Asian marine weather
• We have implemented the dynamical downscaling
approach for SE Asian marine weather.
• The key question is – will we master the description of
typhoons?
• Done: Case studies and seasons – formation of
typhoons induced by large scale dynamics and NOT by
initial values.
Feser, F.,and H. von Storch, 2008: Regional modelling of the western Pacific
typhoon season 2004, Meteor. Z. 17 (3), 1-10. DOI: 10.1127/09412948/2008/0282
Feser, F., and H. von Storch, 2008: A dynamical downscaling case study for
typhoons in SE Asia using a regional climate model. Mon. Wea. Rev. 136,
1806-1815
• Presently under examination: Continuous 6-decade
simulations constrained by NCEP global re-analyses.
A case study: Simulating tropical storm Winnie (August
1997) with regional atmospheric model CLM
12 TCs
in
Seaso
n 2004
only 10
were found
in CLM
simulation
Following Zhang et al.,
2007. Meteor. Atmos.
Phys.
Tropical Cyclones in 2004
Minimum core pressure (hPa)
Best Track JMA
NCEP/NCAR re-analysis
1000
CLM 0.5 resolution
CL M 0.5/0.165 doubel nesting
980
960
940
920
900
880
Dianmu Mindule Ranamin
Megi
Chaba
Aere
Songda
Meari
Ma-on Tokage
Complete simulation of 1948-2007
using CLM with 0.5º grid resolution
and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis
Spectral nudging of scales larges than
about 800 km.
Results are new; thus may be subject
to future revisions!
Criteria have subjectively been selected so that the mean number of TCs
detected in the simulation is about equal to the mean number given in the best
track data.
40
Annual number of TCs
downscaled
linear fit
11-year running mean
35
best track
linear fit
11 year running mean
30
25
20
15
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Conclusions
• (Some) typhoons can be described by regional
atmospheric models run in the climate mode.
• But, downscaled (simulated) TCs are too weak in
terms of core pressure, maximum pressure fall
and maximum sustained wind.
• We need better data for validation.
• Preliminary results concerning change
- Strong year-to-year variability
- Little decadal variability
- No overall trend in numbers
- Slight upward trends in minimum pressure and
max wind since 1990s.
Next workshop: 11+12 March 2009,
Taipei or Tainan, Taiwan