Download Climate Service - Hans von Storch

Climate Servicing –
Limits and Obstacles
Hans von Storch
Institute of Coastal Research, Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht,
University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
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Regional Climate Service, 2006-2016
The Institute of Coastal Research (IfK) of HZG was confronted with knowledge
needs on the side of decision takers (administration, companies) and the regional
public – concerning coastal climate issues (mostly storm surges, storms, waves).
We noticed that our „clients“ did not understand our answers, and that we did not
have the capacity to answer their questions.
• Knowledge is capacity to understand and act, not access to information.
• The science-policy/public interaction is not an issue of the linear model of
demand & supply. The „empty vessel“-model of knowledge transfer is flawed.
• The problem is that the scientific knowledge is competing on an „explanation
market“ with other forms of knowledge. Scientific(ally constructed) knowledge
does not necessarily “win” this competition.
As a consequence, we built a cooperation with social scientists, set up the
dialogue platform „Norddeutsches Klimabüro“ in 2006, established Mini-IPCC
reports for mapping the available scientifically legitimate knowledge about
regional climate, and developed suitable information provision systems.
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The goal was to establish a dialogue between regional stakeholders and
research at the Institute of Coastal Research (and CliSAP)
- so that scientists understand what the knowledge and information needs on
the side of stakeholders are – in particular the extent of how these needs are
conditioned by alternative knowledge claims.
- so that stakeholders understand the limits and partly preliminary character of
scientific understanding of climate change and impacts – in particular the
issues of timing, uncertainty, multiple drivers, scientific claims making (by
interest led social actors).
Thus, climate research shall be enabled to deal with practically relevant issues,
while decision makers should recognize the limits and fragility of scientific
understanding.
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Regional Climate Service comprises …
1. Analysis of cultural construct,
including
common exaggeration in the media.
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Determination of response options on
the local and regional scale: mainly
adaptation but also regional and local
mitigation.
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Dialogue of stakeholders and
climate knowledge brokers in
„Klimabureaus“.
2. Analysis of consensus on relevant
issues (climate consensus reports).
3. Description of recent and present
changes.
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Projection of possible future changes,
which are dynamically consistent and
possible („scenarios“)
The Standard Model:
Teaching, educating …
Knowledge Speaks to Power
Global Environment and Society Model
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Global Environment and Society Model
Hasselmann, 1990
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Global Environment and Society Model
• A „linear model“-framework of how to think about
response strategies; similar to DSIPR (of EEA)
• The “Global Welfare Function” is a formula
summarizing what “society” considers good and
bad. It is an expression of preferences and
values.
• Once the „Global Welfare Function“ is defined by
„society“, an optimal climate policy can be
calculated by experts.
• The main challenge is to determine, how the
working of “society” affects the functioning of the
environmental system (through emissions etc.);
and how the environmental response impacts
the “society”.
• The optimal policy, employing market and policy
instruments, is that mixture which minimizes the
total costs of adaptation and abatement
(mitigation)
The DSIPR-cycle according to
Wim Salomons
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Natural Sciences: Open issues
Observed CRU (1982-2011)
• Many
• Global: Small scale variability in the ocean;
clouds and radiation …
• Regional: Separation of natural variability and
driven change
[The observed temperature trends in the Baltic
Sea region (1982-2011) are beyond the range of
natural variability. In DJA and MAM the change
may be explained with GHG alone; in JJA and
SON other causes are also needed.]
• Regional: (marine) ecosystem sensitivity to
climate change (cf., BACC)
• Regional and local: Simultaneous change of
environmental and socio-economic conditions
[Main cause for recently elevated storm surges
in Hamburg is the modification of the river Elbe –
(coastal defense and shipping channel
deepening) and less so changing storms or sea
level.]
Projected GS signal, A1B scenario
10 simulations
Red bars – natural variability – for detection of a non-natural cause
Black bar – uncertainty of scenarios – for consistency of recent trend
with cause described in scenarios
Barkhordarian et aklll., 2015
von Storch, H. and K. Woth, 2008:
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Obstacles 1:
Alternative Explanations
“IPCC”, skeptics, alarmists
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Knowledge market
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There is a market of different explanations for
climate variations, climate change and climate
impact.
The different explanations are competing in
their significance for political and economic
decisions.
Only the scientific knowledge is constructed
with the scientific method of critical analysis.
Others are conditioned by cultural preferences
and values, among them political and
economic interests.
Examples: skeptics, alarmists
Scientific knowledge does not necessarily
win the competition.
When transferred into the public, scientific
results (say: IPCC, BACC) are filtered by
alternative explanations.
Climate servicing must be aware of such
transformative processes.
Bray, 2011, pers. comm.
Sources of knowledge of
regional administrators at the
German Baltic Sea coast
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Construction of public knowledge
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Obstacle 2
Post-normality
Funtovicz and Ravetz
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Post-normal conditions prevail, when
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Scientific knowledge is unavoidably uncertain;
decisions are urgent;
values are in dispute;
stakes are high.
Climate science operates in post-normal conditions.
In post-normal conditions,
• a severe competition of knowledge claims takes place;
• interest-led parties attempt to include the scientific community in their strategy;
• claims are made that political strategies follow directly from scientific knowledge;
• political utility is often of greater significance than scientific methodology.
• Climate service is expected by some to support their political goals.
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Limit 3
Snake Oil Sellers
Should there be a certification of
climate servicing?
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Spatially detailed climate information, in particular about
future developments of risks, are needed in almost all
aspects of landscape, urban etc. planning.
Provision of such information costs money, and
stakeholders may want to limit the costs; they possibly
want competitive edges. Thus private, secretive
information providers fill a niche on the market.
Some of these providers have an insufficient
understanding of concepts like scenarios and
projections vs. predictions; uncertainty, climate models
etc.. In particular some are unable to explain why certain
client requests (accuracy in terms of timing, spatial
resolution and intensity) cannot be fulfilled.
We need a certifying mechanism for climate
servicing institutions and companies.
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Take home
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Climate change is a „constructed“ issue. People hardly experience „climate
change“.
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One construction is scientific, i.e. an „objective“ analysis of observations
and interpretation by theories.
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The other construction is cultural, in particular maintained and transformed
by the public media.
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The different constructions of knowledge about climate change compete in
the public
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Climate science operates in a post-normal situation, which goes along with
a tendency of politicizing science, and scientizing politics. Cultural science
need to support climate science to deal with this challenge.
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Climate Science needs to offer “Climate Service”, which includes the
establishment of a dialogue with the public (direct or via media) and
stakeholders –recognizing the socio-cultural dynamics of the issue.
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Climate Servicing needs a certifying mechanism for allowing clients to
avoid providers with insufficient understanding of the issues.
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